Afghanistan In T2K
 

I have never been that interested in what happened in Afghanistan after the soviet withdrawal and therefore, I was largely ignorant. However, I was reading things on the Afghan civil war that took place between 1989-1992 and I was surprised to learn that the Afghani Army did very well (may be better than before the soviet withdrawal). Whatever the timeline, I would assume that the soviet withdrew. However, I would be surprised to see the Soviet cut their supply support to Najibullah's regime as they did in 1992.

As a result, IMO, the Mujahideen as the Taliban would fail to take power in Afghanistan and the old communist party would remain in power (may be securing most of the country). I don't expect Afghanistan to enter the Twilight war but they could be very supportive of Warsaw Pact.

Does anyone has some thinking about it?

In my T2K games I played in the early to mid-90s the Cold War was over for real but I had the setting be alternative history.

I played a slightly modified V.1 in which Reagan was unable to supply Stingers to the Mujaheddin and so the Soviets did far better. They were able to suppress the Afghans enough to set up a sham election in 1992 which brought Afghanistan into the Soviet Union as a member republic. This of course turned into a running sore for the Soviets but gave them a secure enough rear area to launch their invasion of Iran from.

In my V.1 I still had Iraq invade Kuwait and a UN mission kick them out. Hussein was overthrown and in return for Soviet Union going along with this the US looked the other way as the Soviet Union viciously crushed the Afghans. Not long after, though, there was a nasty undeclared border war with Iran and Pakistan (supported by not so covert US aid, including "volunteer" pilots and SOC) on one side and the USSR on the other. With the Mujaheddin angered by their abandonment the 1993 bombing of the WTC still occurred and caused far more damage than it did in real life.

So by 1996 when the Twilight War really heated up the entire region was one royal mess. Both sides were plagued by rear area insurgencies but over time the US having learned from Vietnam was able to win over the hearts and minds and garner local support, while the Soviets, who took away all the wrong lessons from their time in Afghanistan, found themselves having serious rear area security problems.

Benjamin