[swaghauler]

I wonder if the Soviets would even try to attack a task force unless forced to. Assuming that they are reasonably intelligent and are considering the consequences of their actions; I think that most US naval casualties would be the result of hunter/killer operations against Soviet Navel assets.
When the Russians begin their campaign against China (presumably over the Mongolian oil reserves under both countries' soil); they would have to know that that action would have a major impact on the US economy. Even in the early 90's, 40% of our imports came from China. They would also know we wouldn't sit by and allow this to happen. As sanctions against them began to tighten, resources in Russia (but with no obligations stemming from Western aid rendered in our real life timeline) would become scarce. This might prompt the Soviets to offer Iran and Iraq military hardware in exchange for oil and open the stage for a plot to tie up US navel assets in The Gulf. They would give these countries more advanced hardware and "encourage" them to "harass" oil tankers in the Gulf.
They could "negotiate" with India to clandestinely allow the transit of oil and military hardware through their country in exchange for upgraded military hardware. India agrees because they are upset with a build up of the Pakistani Military using US financial support (in exchange for allowing US forces to "stage" in Pakistan). The Pakistan/Indian War occurs as a result of the US pressuring Pakistan to "close down" the overland supply route and India reacting to an "Invasion of it's soil."

While all of the above is occupying the US in the Gulf AND squeezing off the Middle East oil supply; the East and South China Seas would be under "attack" as well. The Soviets would most likely declare those areas "War Zones" and attack all commercial shipping in Chinese waters. They could use their very fast but noisy nuclear attack subs as "commerce raiders." No commercial ship could escape them or the long range bombers that Russia could send so far out to sea that the Chinese couldn't intercept them. The combination of fast nuclear subs and ships operating in conjunction with long range bombers and orbital surveillance would dramatically increase the effectiveness of such raiders. These raiders would be very difficult to track down and destroy. Millions of tons of commercial shipping could end up on the bottom of the East and South China Seas and the Indian Ocean before these raiders were stopped.
The US carriers would be unintentionally "split up" to protect shipping in the East and South China Seas as well as the Malacca Straights. Ever growing "skirmishes" between the US Navy and Russian "Commerce Raiders" could end up costing the US a couple of carriers before general hostilities begin (and could "accelerate" such hostilities). The loss of large numbers of tankers could cripple the US conventional carriers (turning them into "static airbases"). When the big naval battles finally come, the NATO fleets could already be of reduced strength.