I think any predictions being made right now in this regard would be little more than guesswork, all being predicated on the idea of whether or not Putin is behaving as a rational actor any longer.
In my opinion, it's only a matter of time until Kherson falls back into Ukrainian hands - the Russians there are surely running short on fuel and ammunition, with no way to resupply other than by hand across the Antonivka bridge. When they're dry on ammo, I don't see them as having much other choice than to retreat across the bridge or surrender, leaving their heavy equipment behind.
As for Putin, how will he take the situation in the northeast and in Kherson when the above scenario comes to pass? If he's behaving as a rational actor, he'll sue for peace. He'll recognize that the war has failed, his military will take a generation to rebuild, and that the entire endeavor was a waste of time and resources. He'll try to keep the Donbas region through negotiations, though I think that by now he's lost the chance to hold onto the Crimean Peninsula.
If Putin isn't a rational actor (anymore) or is getting super desperate because his own life is on the line? I think there's a lot of things he might try, including but not limited to targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure (power plants, water processing facilities, etc), calling up the Russian reserves, instituting a draft, etc. I don't think he'd actually resort to using nukes, but so much depends on how far gone he is.
As for him potentially targeting civilian infrastructure, Russia wants people to support Russia. If he starts going after power plants just as winter is starting, he'll lose the possibility of holding Donbas as the people there will see him for the monster he is. As for the draft or calling up reserves, it's clear that his equipment stocks are on the path to depletion, which means any reserves would likely just be light infantry. Does he risk sacrificing a ton of Russians into a meat grinder and risk losing what popular support he has in Russia? I don't think he'd want to go that route either, but again, who knows?
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