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Originally Posted by Raellus
I don't buy the idea of an air corridor to W. Berlin remaining open after fighting kicks off between the Bundeswehr and the GoSFiG. The fog-of-war would be so thick, you could cut it with a knife, and "accidents" would be unavoidable- inevitable even. Both sides would know this. I imagine W. Berlin would be placed in a de-facto stage of siege as soon as Bundeswehr forces cross the border into the DDR. Sure, the Soviet Union wouldn't be keen on provoking the rest of NATO into joining the fight, but I just don't see them being willing to allow air traffic from the West unimpeded access to East German territory. The Soviets would be too rattled- paranoia isn't paranoia when the fear is substantiated- by the clear and present danger of losing its western buffer to an aggressive, potentially united Germany (1941, anyone?). Sure, they'd warn off the West in the most unambiguous of terms and, unlike 1948, I think they'd back their threats with deadly force (the Soviets didn't have an operational nuclear deterrent in '48; in '96, they would, and it would be massive). The Stavka would remember Stalin's mistake of writing off reports that Barbarossa was underway, and instructing border troops not to fight back in fear of "provoking" Hitler. I think a hard-line, military backed Politburo would draw a line in the sand, and prepare for the worst. With a war well underway in the Far East and a war flaring up in central Europe, the Soviets would not be willing to show weakness.
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I wouldn't be proposing open air corridor to West Berlin, just the likely possibility that the US, Britain and France will insist that aid and supplies be allowed to their troops and civilian in West Berlin, and the civilian population of West Berlin on certain dates and times. The Germans are not going to interfere and there is no East German air force left to speak of, so the problem will be the Soviets.
Looking at the Soviet position. They are fighting a costly war in China against five million plus Chinese troops who are now being armed by the West and causing all sorts of problems for the Soviet military and logistics chain. Closer to home in Europe they are no fighting the potentially more dangerous one million plus German army who is better armed and trained than their own army. Shoot down a USAF or RAF transport plane carrying supplies or evacuating civilians from West Berlin, and there is a strong possibility that the Soviets will soon be also fighting another couple of million Western troops in Europe, backed by 20,000 tanks, 5,000 combat aircraft and a few thousand nuclear weapons.