[John Farson]

1996 (continued)
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From the beginning the war is waged without any particular plans, as a "come as you are," and neither side is very well prepared. The Bundeswehr has just undergone a very substantive expansion and rearming. Many units are equiped with tanks and vehicles which have 4-5 years in warehouses. Both the Poles and the Russians have spent very little money on defence for several years, and the war in the East has consumed a large portion of the Russian Army's best equipment. The Poles are supported by three Russian divisions as part of the new Warsaw Pact's joint military operations, but they are still numerically outnumbered by the Germans. However, the balance of power shifts against the Germans with the Czech Army's surprising defection to the new Warsaw Pact.

By the end of November the Bundeswehr is in trouble. The Russian Air Force has left its most modern aircraft in the west, and they are both quantitatively and qualitatively more than equal with the Luftwaffe's partially obsolete aircraft. The Czech Army finally smashes its way through the reserve groups in the southern sector and drives northward into German territory. With victory in sight, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces its intention to occupy and divide Germany for good in order to prevent another German invasion.

In desperation Germany turns to its NATO allies, claiming that its actions were justified by Polish military provocations and that its very existance was under threat. As the political leadership of the European NATO member states negotiate over the justification of military assistance, the U.S. Army crosses the German-Polish border. Within the week France, Belgium, Italy and Greece first demand that American forces withdraw to their starting positions. When these demands have no effect, they withdraw from NATO in protest. British and Canadian forces join the U.S. in crossing the border, whereas Danish and Dutch forces remain where they are, still in NATO but as non-belligerents.

The Russians dare not risk their dwindling forces in the North by trying to steamroll through Finland and Sweden. Instead, they boldly attempt a quick victory in northern Norway. However, most forces equipped for Arctic warfare have already been sent East, and the available 3rd class forces are unable to break through, especially when airborne forces and marines are dispatched to reinforce NATO positions. As British commandos and U.S. Marines join the battle, the frontline is pushed east, towards the Kola Peninsula naval bases. The Russian Army's elite paratroopers and marines are cut off and destroyed.

Imperiled by the NATO advance, the Russian Northern Fleet takes to sea and attempts to break through into the North Atlantic through the Denmark Strait (between Greenland and Iceland) and the strait between Iceland and Scotland. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, but in the end the Western fleets are victorious, though bloodied. After the battle 80% of the Russian Northern Fleet rests at the bottom of the Norwegian and North Seas. Individual blockade runners(submarines?) manage to make it through, however, and by the end of the year they have torn many NATO convoys to shreds, which would have otherwise brought troops, ammunition and supplies over the Atlantic.

The Hungarian government breaks off diplomatic relations with Romania after Romanian police shoot dead a man crossing the Hungary-Romania border. The Romanians claim that the deceased was a smuggler bringing arms to anti-government forces. Three days later Hungarian Army spies or Romanian provacateurs (depending on which source you believe) blow up the railroad station in Cluj, Romania. In response, the Romanians begin mass arrests of Hungarians throughout the country. The actions of the police meet armed resistance, and a week later an ethnic Hungarian government declares Transylvania independent and secedes from Romania. As Romanian troops march north to crush the insurrection, the Hungarian government's protests go without notice, and it declares war (along with its allies).

As Hungarian, Bulgarian and Russian forces advance into Romania the government offically declares war on them and requests help from NATO.

The first country to come into Romania's aide is its neighbour Ukraine. Within a day three divisions and five brigades cross the Romanian border, and two days later they are at the front under Romanian command. At the same time Romania occupies Moldova in order to protect the Moldovan majority from "Cossack terrorists". Thus begins the ethnic cleansing and mass slaughter of the Russian minority in the Transnistria region. NATO responds to these developments a bit later by offering full membership to both countries, who accept. More concrete help arrives in the form of the Turkish 1st Army, however, which begins the offensive in Thrace against weak Bulgarian units on Christmas Eve.

In July the maoist Shining Path guerrilla group takes advantage of the general international chaos to attempt a revolution in Peru. They fail to overthrow the government but manage to seize control of about half of Peru. Other countries in Central and South America experience various amounts of political unrest and violence.

By the end of the year Russia has engulfed all the Caucasian and Asian CIS states except for Georgia, and an endless guerrilla war begins in these countries, supported by Iran and Iraq.
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Next, 1997