[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

The other countries didnt just fall apart because they were run by blacks - and that statement of mine also applies to the countries above the Sahara which are definitely not black - i.e. Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, etc.

I wasn't implying that, but all sub-Saharan countries in Africa have black governments and all pretty much collapsed outside of those countries supported by France and the US. And North Africa is basically Arab Muslim and has a very different culture to the rest of Africa.

Originally Posted by Olefin

They fell apart either due to nuclear attacks (Nigeria, Guinea, Mozambique, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Ivory Coast) or because of wars and fighting (Congo, Tanzania, Comoros, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia) or because of the lack of oil and the world economy coming apart and the end of economic and food aid (pretty much everywhere else).

They likely also fell apart due to having appalling corrupt governments, rampant disease and famine and numerous insurrections.

Originally Posted by Olefin

The only places that maintained any real cohesiveness were Rwanda (very effective military - i.e. the Israelis of Africa), Kenya (with a lot of help from the US military forces that just barely managed to get there in time), Uganda (which is now starting to come apart because of the LRA and its death squads and Kony basically thinking he is God), and the areas that the French control (which include Djibouti and Senegal and the French Comoros Islands which are now part of the French Union) - otherwise by April 2001 the continent is in a shambles.

An example would be the Central African Republic - that country has completely fallen apart - outside of the capital city there is no government at all.

Exactly

Originally Posted by Olefin

Oh and they didnt hand power over to the blacks - South Africa still considers itself at war and the government is a coalition of blacks and white, each with equal power - its not one man, one vote like in our world - true democracy and actual black rule of South Africa will still be quite a ways in the future.

I don't see any reason why they would have to, and I don't see the Afrikaners doing that willingly. Also the South African governemnt created ten self-governing homeland territories for Blacks within South Africa known as Bantustan's in the 1970's (Bophuthatswana, Ciskei, Ganzankulu, Lebowa, KaNgwane, KwaNdebele, KwaZulu, QwaQwa, Transkei and Venda). South Africa considered Bophuthatswana, Ciskei, Transkei and Venda to be nominal independent states within South Africa with their own armed forces (para-military forces) with light armoured vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, infantry support weapons and helicopters, although they were closely monitored by the South African military. The South African armed forces also included over 5,000 volunteer black personnel in the ranks of the full time army which only had 19,900 personnel, and another 2,500 were coloured South Africans. However only whites were drafted for national service with the Citizen Force.

Originally Posted by Olefin

As to the Soviets - they set off rebellions and guerrilla movements all across the continent including in South Africa in 1995 to distract from their invasion of China and then nuked two of their cities in 1997 so they would have still been seen as a big threat in 1998.

I wouldn't rate the chances of black guerrilla movements within South African territory to highly. The South Africans were very effective at disrupting and supressing black rebellion and communist activity within South Africa, and were also very proactive at tackling anti-South African guerrillas and movements in places such as Angola and other countries to the north. They frequently used black South African troops to impersonate guerrillas to infiltrate the organisations, and used white special forces troops to impersonate Soviet and East German advisors. And this was before the full mobilisation of South African forces.

Originally Posted by Olefin

Thus the South African whites saw that the only way to keep the country strong in the face of threats both external and internal was to do the coalition 50/50 government - thus the whites still have power, but now its shared with the blacks

I could see them granting some concessions to blacks such as expanding the territory of the Bantustans and giving them a token presence in the government. But I don't see them being allowed to control the economy or armed forces, as it would likely lead to an Afrikaner coup d'état. More likely the South African government would play on the rivalries that existed within South African black societies, notably Zulus versus Bantu's .