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Old 10-13-2017, 01:50 PM
Olefin Olefin is offline
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Originally Posted by mpipes View Post
Here is my take on Mexican military power buildup. I have never believed Mexico could mount a successful invasion with some major pre-war developments.

MEXICAN MILITARY BUILDUP NOTES

Mexico discovered and began earnest development of extensive deposits of oil and gas, titanium, gold, and silver in the late 1970s and early 1980s. By 1979, with the US economy suffering through oil shortages and other disruptions to energy and other needs, the Mexican government became increasingly concerned about its country’s ability to forestall a possible invasion should the US become desperately short of energy supplies. Mexico was also increasingly becoming a “rich” nation, but its reputation suffered on the world stage because of its lack of participation in international affairs.
As Mexico pondered its future in the world, it seemed obvious that one avenue was to expand participation in world affairs through peace keeping missions with the UN. First, Mexico amended its constitution to permit deployment of up to a battalion without a declaration of war to support UN missions. Second, Mexico embarked on a program to markedly expand its military forces. Finally, its diplomatic service and foreign minister became more vocal and assertive in promoting foreign business and trade with oil sales increasingly aimed at European and Pacific rim countries.
Mexico approached Israel to purchase Merkava Mk II, M50, and M51 tanks and Kifir fighters in 1980. However, the US moved in to block sales of the Kifir and pressured Israel to not sale the advanced Merkava tank to Mexico. The US also offered to sale retired USN frigates to Mexico and more F-5E fighters. The US also deemed the sale of Israeli M50 and M51 tanks as sufficient to cover Mexico’s defense needs, but did offer to sale a quantity of M48A3s to Mexico. The Mexican government considered the offer patronizing and insulting, viewing the Americans as trying to dictate Mexico’s force structure and defense needs. It rejected the offer out of hand, although Mexico operated 18 F-5E contracted for in the 1970s.
In 1985, Mexico approached France and Germany, which were both very willing to sale weapons to the Mexicans and not worried about irritating the American government. From France, Mexico concluded a deal to purchase 54 Mirage F-1E multi-role fighters, 60 ex-French Jaguar A attack fighters, and 300 AMX-30S tanks as well as APCs and light armor. The deal called for re-manufacturing surplus AMX-30S tanks with French assistance into TAB-30s. Mexico also purchased AMX Mk F3 L30 155mm, AMX Mk F3 L22 155mm, and AMX VCA artillery support vehicles. Upgunned AMX-13s and ERC-90s were included as well. Mexico also negotiated to buy 28 Mirage 4000 fighters and 100 AMX-40 tanks along with a license to build AMX-40 tanks. It also had an option to buy 20 more Mirage 4000 fighters, 20 AMX-40 tanks, and 100 AMX-30 tanks, which Mexico exercised in 1986.
From Germany, Mexico purchased five MEKO 360 destroyer/frigates, seven MEKO 140 frigate/corvettes, and four MEKO 200 frigates. Mexico also bought 30 M-48A3s from German stocks as an interim measure till the TAB-30s entered service. The M48A3s entered service in 1987 (later returned to Germany after war broke out). Mexico also managed to buy a few Merkava II tanks for evaluation and followed through with buying obsolete M-4 Sherman variants from Israel.
After German reunification, as Germany initially sought to dispose of East Germany’s military equipment, Mexico entered negotiations to purchase additional arms. In 1992, a deal was struck with the Germans purchasing 3 Kolin-class frigates, 9 minesweepers, 58 MiG-21M Fishbed-Js along with 7 MiG-21UM trainers, as well as 400 BTR-70s APCs, and 12 Mil-24D attack helicopters. However, by the end of 1992, Germany re-evaluated its decision to essentially de-mobilize the bulk of the East German military. The reality of the Soviet’s behavior post-coup was rapidly dispelling belief in the end of the “Cold War,” and it became increasingly evident that the Cold War was only paused. Although the frigates, minesweepers, helicopters, and MiGs were delivered as planned, the BTR-70 sale was canceled. Instead, 300 BTR-60s and two additional Mil-24Ds were delivered. Mexico also managed to purchase 112 SO-122 self-propelled howitzer and 96 D-30 122mm and 104 L118 105mm towed howitzers. Mexico also purchased a number of MiG-23s (18 MiG-23BN, 9 MiG-23MFs, and 2 MiG-23UBs) from Germany. Germany also included a number of MiG-21F-13s still held in their reserve stocks. Over 400 air-to-air missiles were also included (AA-2s, AA-7s, AA-8s, and AA-11s). A number of ex-Cuban Air Force pilots and personnel were successfully recruited to aid the Mexican Air Force’s integration of the new equipment
Despite the outbreak of war in 1995, Mexico received its purchases on time from France and even managed to purchase additional fighters. However, one MEKO 140 and one MEKO 200 were never delivered by Germany, with both diverted to German needs. By 1995, Mexico was producing the AMX-40 at a rate of 120 tanks a year as well as APCs. Its military was considered well trained and formidable in its overall power and competence by Latin American governments. Although the US government was aware of the build-up, most US officials, and the military, continued to view the Mexican military with relative disdain. That did not last long as the Mexican army steam rolled onto the central plains and into California and Texas in 1998. By 1999, the Mexican army was rightly regarded as the best trained military force in the Americas; better on average than the Russians and the National Guard units in that theater. Forcing them out was going to be a challenge.
By 1998 and the start of the war with America, Mexico had in service the following MBTs:
TAB-30 358
AMX-30 16
AMX-30S 22
AMX-40 503
Leopard 1A6 60 (with French GIAT 120mm guns)
Merkava II 12
M50 136
M51 322
TOTAL 1429
The Mexican Air Force in 1998 included the following combat aircraft:
Mirage F-1E 130
Mirage F-1S 14
MiG-21F-13 36
MiG-21M 58
MiG-21UM 7
MiG-23BN 30
MiG-23MF 10
MiG-23UB 3
Mirage 4000 70
Jaguar A 76
L-39Z 27
F-5E 28
TOTAL 470
The MiG-21Ms, MiG-23BNs/MFs and L-39Zs had been updated to use Magic II IRMs, which the Mexican’s possessed in considerable numbers. The Israelis also updated a number of MiG-21M to use the Python-4. The MiG-21F-13s continued to use AA-8 and AA-11 missiles, but they were for the most part retained for air defense in Mexico, though the pilots primarily trained for the attack role (armed with a pair of rocket pods and two 1100-lb bombs) and used that training during the civil war, hitting rebel ground forces advancing on Mexico City. A few of the F-13s (about 12) could use the Magic II as well. Mexican combat squadrons numbered between 12 to 20 aircraft. A few foreign “contractors” were available as well, including Russian, Cuban, French, and Spanish pilots – between 40 and 50. The Mirage pilots were considered the best, but the top scorer was a Mexican MiG-21M pilot, Jose Chevas, using mostly Python-4 IRMs (47 confirmed kills by 2000) and flying over the California and New Mexico fronts.
Still, the Mexican Army in 1998 really comprised a motley assortment of both WWII era light armor and more modern armored vehicles ranging from upgunned 1950s AMX-13s to modern AMX-40 tanks. Despite this (and the logistics challenge that inevitably followed) Mexico proceeded to overrun much of the US southwest and Great Plains.
After the invasion, Mexico also captured over 250 intact M-60A1 and M-60A3 awaiting upgrade, and a further 57 M-60A4s, as well as over 450 M113s. These were placed into service along with 84 captured M-48A5s. By late 2000, maintaining all these varied tank types was challenging to say the least, and many were sidelined by maintenance and repair issues, not to mention lack of fuel.
here is the problem - given the US forces left in the country you would either need to completely change them over to armor heavy forces - or the Mexican Army wouldnt have been stopped at all - basically if they had that force level they would have taken the entire American West and deep into the South - i.e. basically its game over unless the US starts to use nukes on its own soil

So either you need to scrap the US Army Guide and bring a lot more armor home - or have the Mexicans take all of Texas, OK, Kansas, AZ, NM, CA, UT, CO, AK, NV and maybe even MO before they are stopped after a series of nuclear strikes on our own soil
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