Thread: Korean Omega
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Old 11-04-2017, 01:47 PM
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Raellus Raellus is offline
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Originally Posted by Rainbow Six View Post
I see one potential challenge with a US evacuation from Korea / Japan.

Unlike its European counterpart, ships would be sailing relatively close to Soviet waters, so I think its planners would have to be reasonably confident that there was no risk of attack from any remaining elements of the Soviet Pacific Fleet. A single submarine could potentially take out a large chunk of any evacuation fleet.

(We can debate backwards and forwards on this board about how many ships various Navies might have operational by that stage in the War, but that's not my point - my point is that unless those charged with actually planning such a mission in the T2K timeline were confident that the risk of Soviet naval action against the fleet was minimal (or they felt they had adequate defences against any such action) there would be an element of risk attached)
I agree with you completely. The ability of the Soviet Pacific Fleet, whatever's left of it by late 2000, to interfere with the evacuation is an important consideration.

My initial thoughts are as follows. There is mention made in canon (the v1.0 U.S. Army Vehicle Guide) of Soviet commerce raiders inflicting casualties on seaborne reinforcements in early 1998. Here's my version,

American forces in Korea received very few reinforcements after 1997. The last major formation to arrive on the peninsula was the 6th Marine Division, deployed by sea on 2/19/98, which arrived badly depleted by attacks by Soviet commerce raiders suffered while en route. The shaken survivors were organized around the Division's 16th Marine Regiment and the unit finally entered combat on 3/7.

To me, "commerce raiders" suggests attack subs and possibly surface combatants or disguised, armed merchantmen operating alone or in small groups, not a sizeable fleet. So, that's one clue that Soviet Pacific Fleet naval strength has been significantly diminished by early '98. However, said commerce raiders nearly destroyed the 6th MarDiv, so it stands to reason that they could also maul an evac fleet.

Next, IIRC, canon mentions the port facilities at Vladivostok being hit by at least one nuke. So, the nearest major Soviet naval base/port would be on the Kamchatka Peninsula, over 1,000 miles from Busan.

Therefore, any evacuation fleet probably wouldn't have to contend with particularly strong Soviet naval forces, but roaming attack subs would still be a major threat, unless the evac fleet traveled in convoy with strong ASW escorts.

I don't know what the likelihood of Soviet attack subs roaming the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, or southern reaches of the Sea of Japan in late 2000. There might be one or two operating in the region at that time, but with the U.S., ROK, and Japanese navies operating in the same waters, there's also a pretty good chance that there's not.

A large convoy is a possibility, but I don't know if I want to go with a Pacific mirror of operation OMEGA. Perhaps the U.S. takes a shotgun approach, sending scattered singletons off in the hope that at least some of them find their way home. That seems callous and wasteful, but I really can't see much sense, strategically-speaking, in keeping 15,000+ American troops on glorified garrison duty in South Korea.
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Last edited by Raellus; 11-04-2017 at 02:00 PM.
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