[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

So these refugees decide to go not with the crowd but towards a region so desolate that a dude ranch is the best chance they have for survival in the region, AND they know that ranch is there in the first place, AND they stay in the area long enough that they overwhelm the ranch's resources AND the Project notices them AND the Project decides to risk the entire Project to expose the headquarters at the worst possible time?

To quote the great Jayne Cobb, "Smelling a lot of 'if' comin' off this plan..."

The Burning Man crowd is the crowd to follow in this case. They know how to organize on a big scale. The ranch like many others and the sources for water are all on standard topographical maps. North or Northeast are the only ways to logically go. They cannot stay on the Playa/Gerlach; and to the north is eastern Oregon which isn't much of a high desert except where OR/NV/ID come together. Eastern Oregon is plains and forested hills with lots of water and many, many ranches. The border with NV is where that is coming together. The valleys have seasonal creeks or runoff and year round ground water. The only issue is fallout from Sierra Army Depot and Carson City, NV and with diseases like cholera breaking out from poor sanitation discipline. There is pretty good game in the area. White tail deer and prong horns, along with feral cattle, goats, and wild horses. Rabbits seem to die by the dozens on the roadways without a dent in their population.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

There are two major issues.

First, the site for Prime Base was chosen specifically to be out of the way. It is hours of travel away from anyone who might have any reason to move, and it is hours away from those people in a direction that they have no reason to go unless they want a slow, lingering death in the desert. For them to go that direction requires that they have a massive amount of information that no one outside of Prime Base is likely to have at that point, and probably not even they have it.

Prime Base was sited and chosen specifically in the 1960s and 1970s.... They could not have anticipated all the aging hippies, anarchists, drug fueled electronic music kids, and their dealers coming to the Playa to get naked, stoned, and have orgies for a week in the summer. They didn't anticipate the growth of Gerlach and the federal agencies in the area to support the Burning Man event either.

It's all high desert. Low rainfall, but not the absolute lack of water. It is there to be found the area is blanketed in sage brush and cedar trees with grasses aplenty.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

Second, the timetable for this option requires that Prime Base not expose themselves at the beginning of operations but at the beginning of the "hide and watch" phase. It is the worst decision they could make and they would have to know it. They have minimal understanding of what is going on in the world, and refugees at this point are at the very most likely to be carrying a biological weapon. Heck, the war is not likely to be an "overnight" thing, Prime Base opening their doors could very well get seen on satellite and receive a nuke for their troubles! Prime Base has to stay hidden until they are sure that (a) everyone is done shooting and (b) there aren't any roaming hazards like biological weapons in the area.

I didn't say that Prime Base opened immediately. I gave a plausible enough reason for why there are refugees to be in the area.. because any other direction is dead, destroyed, polluted, or completely uninhabitable.... Nevada is a donut with an uninhabitable center that the USAF/USN enjoys the freedom to drop all manner of ordnance with a circle of habitable green all around it.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

So Prime Base falling because it takes on refugees from Burning Man requires both brilliantly informed refugees and even more colossal stupidity and disregard for "the plan" than ever. I just don't see it.

Considering the staggering number of under 30 mulitmillionaire compsci tech Brogrammers in the Burning Man crowd and multimillionaire actors/actresses from Hollywood attending with their entourages..... still not that impossible.