I think there are still reasonable regional rivalries in the US, but not many that could be acted on in the conditions of the twilight war. Local issues, not state issues will dominate in most areas. This will lead to the rural/urban splits mentioned and will also make statewide organization against a neighboring state nearly impossible for some time.
I do have some ideas though. I think the Texans, with their history of having been an independent country, are the most likely to declare indepenance again if they have the chance and see a benefit. I also think the bonds of the old Confederacy are stronger than most if only as a propaganda technique to keep the people in line.
I also think that California and the other Pacific states will go largely insular, if only for reasons of geography. California is separated from the rest of the country by fairly serious deserts and mountains in most areas. They are crossable using pre-industrial means (Lewis and Clark did it and the Native Americans for centuries) but it would be difficult to maintain reliable communication/trade and effective control across the rockies and the desert southwest. Even within California LA and San Francisco are separated by 500 miles of coast with nearly no full time inhabitants. Similarly the 500 miles from SF to Portland Oregon is largely empty. I would expect that the areas around these cities would form independent survival strategies. Northern and Southern Californians (NoCal and SoCal) already despise each other. This would be complicated in the south by the fact that LA will be largely uninhabitable desert without modern irrigation technology.
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