Quote:
Originally Posted by Olefin
and those mines and subs would have had USN ships escorting the tankers - and you bring up a Soviet mine or sink a Soviet sub and its off to war we go - the Soviets werent trying to get the US to join the war - and there is a precedent - the US escort of the tankers in the Persian Gulf and what they did to the Iranians to keep the sea lanes clear
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I don't think it is so cut and dry.
First this is not WWII nor are we discussing just the Straights of Hormuz. There are over 20,000 cargo ships during this time (man at times like this I miss Chico more than usual). The US was trying to get 800 warships so not every ship is going to be escorted.
I believe the soviets supplied sea mines to over 25 countries during the cold war so that muddies the waters a bit in terms of guilt (like the mines the Iranians laid). Also the US (CIA) mined a Nicaraguan harbor in 1984 and damaged a soviet tanker. That did not end up being a prelude to war. Neither did a US ship getting damaged by an Iranian mine.
If a few neutral tankers go down in the Malacca Straits, can we be 100% sure it is not Vietnam or Burma (heck it could be blamed on India or Indonesia who each might want to take China down a peg).
I do think that the Soviets would not risk too much in 95 (when they are winning), but in spring 96 when things start to go bad (but before the German crossing) we might have to think about them starting to bend the rules a bit.