Dragoon
I agree with everything you say and I think that the Soviet carriers would have been used to protect the main strike force: Kirov, Slava, Sovremmeniy and Oscar submarines.
About the Bears, they should be kept in service. Production line were reopened shortly before the fall of USSR and more new ones would have been fielded to replace the older ones. All current Bears had been built only 20 years ago. They are fairly recent aircrafts, in fact.
If the Twilight War had occured, these would have been among the newest soviet aircrafts.
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