View Single Post
  #3  
Old 12-10-2008, 08:06 AM
Mohoender's Avatar
Mohoender Mohoender is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Near Cannes, South of France
Posts: 1,653
Default 2001-2010 The road to war (part 2)

2006
In the Middle East, Hamas wins the majority of seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is removed from office after four months in a coma. The President of Iran confirms that Iran has successfully produced a few grams of low-grade enriched uranium and Iran successfully test-fires 3 new models of sea missiles in a show of force to assert its military capacities in the Gulf.. Israeli troops invade Lebanon in response to Hezbollah kidnapping two Israeli soldiers and killing 3. Hezbollah declares open war against Israel 2 days later. 33 days later, the conflict ends with a first true defeat for IDF. On December 30th, Saddam Hussein, former Iraq president, is executed in Baghdad.
In Asia, A state of emergency is declared in the Philippines, after an alleged coup d'état against President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is foiled. North Korea claims to have conducted its first ever nuclear test.
In the USA, the two remaining Iowa-class battleships, along with several smaller ships awaiting scrapping, are now undergoing refit. The population reaches 300 million based on a United States Census Bureau projection. Democrats win control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1994. In an unprecedented move in modern US history, eight retired generals and admirals call for Rumsfeld to resign in early 2006 in what is called the "Generals Revolt," accusing him of "abysmal" military planning and lack of strategic competence. On November 1st, President Bush states that he would stand by Rumsfeld as defense secretary for the length of his term and the U.S. Defense Secretary is confirmed. Later it will be revealed that he wrote a resignation letter that was refused by President Bush.
In the Caucasus, the former Soviet republic of South Ossetia holds a referendum on independence from Georgia. This is widely condemned by the western world but Moscow and several of the former soviet republic recognize the new country.

In South America, Bolivian President Evo Morales nationalizes his nation's gas fields. President Alvaro Uribe Velez is re-elected in Colombia for a second term and becomes the first president in over a century to serve consecutive terms. Alan Garcia, leader of the APRA (Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana), a left wing Peruvian political party, becomes president of Peru. Hugo Chávez is re-elected President of Venezuela.

2007
In Europe, Romania joins the European Union but a crisis strikes Bulgaria. President Georgi Parvanov was not reelected, and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) assumes full control under the rule of a new President: a young political figure raised in Moscow. As a result, Bulgaria resigns from NATO, turns back to Russia and starts building up its military again, starting the first of what is now known as the European crisis. Britain expels four Russian diplomats in response to a refusal by the Russians to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, suspected to be behind the murder of former KGB spy Alexander Litvinenko in London. British troops were to withdraw from the Basra region of Iraq but this action is cancelled and reinforcements are sent instead. On December 13th, European leaders sign the Treaty of Lisbon in order to reach agreement on the modification of the EU institutions.
Despite what was promised, NATO has kept growing over the year and plans are now made to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine. This is too much for Russia and the presidency issues a decree by which the country withdraws from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and several units are deployed to the west again. Moreover, the Prime Minister of Russia issues a statement, revealing that Russia is to resume the flight exercises of its Strategic bombers in remote areas. The flights were suspended in 1991 after the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Finally, On September 11th, Russia unveils the FOAB (Father of All Bombs), a high power conventional bomb with a blast of 44 tons TNT, while several new design are put into production.
In Asia, China successfully tests a ground-based ballistic missile capable of destroying satellites in orbit, drawing criticisms from other countries. North Korea refuses to shut down its nuclear facilities in Yongbyon and turns away from all negociation, turning again on Russia and receiving an energy aid equivalent to 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil.
In the USA, in Spring, the U.S. President announces a plan to station 21,500 additional troops in Iraq. Then, following the events involving Korea and Russia, he addresses the nation toward the end of the year and states that “The Free World is facing a new challenge as Russia is initiating a new arm race. We need to stand up again as the treacherous forces of the world are revealing themselves to all.”
In Pakistan, Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto is assassinated, and at least 20 others are killed by a bomb blast at an election rally in Rawalpindi.
In Latin America, the Sandinistas are back in power. The Venezuelan National Assembly gives the President the power to rule by decree for 18 months. Almost at the same moment, the Venezuelian President calls for a regional conference attended by most leaders of Latin America with the notable exception of those from Colombia and Mexico. The conference ends a regional agreement and with the creation of the Latin Socialist Union, an organization including only part of those who attended and intended to promote economical and technical collaboration among its members: Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Peru and Venezuela.

2008
In January, the price of petroleum hits $100 per barrel for the first time. Stock markets around the world plunge amid growing fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis. The western world slowly enters a major economical crisis. Rising food and fuel prices trigger riots and unrest in the Third World.
In Africa, a peace deal ends the Kivu conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo but peace doesn’t last and rebellions grow again in the eastern part of the country. The UN commits more than 20,000 troops to the region but fails to resolve the conflict. Meanwhile, piracy increases constantly in the Gulf of Aden and Mauritania falls to a military coup.

In Pakistan, on August 18th, Pervez Musharraf resigns from the post of President of Pakistan under impeachment pressure from the coalition government. a moderate is elected in his place but many already regrets Musharraf’s regime. The country is increasingly unstable and the numerous air strike conducted by U.S. over the tribal regions areworsening the situation further. Moreover, toward the end of the year, a massive terrorist attack is launched in Bombay and tensions between India and Pakistan are revived.
In Latin America, PDVSA, a state oil company in Venezuela, suspends sales of crude oil to ExxonMobil. Fidel Castro announces his resignation as President of Cuba, effective on February 24th and a young leader of the party is unanimously elected as President of Cuba by the National Assembly. Venezuela and Ecuador move troops to the Colombian border following a Colombian raid against FARC guerrillas inside Ecuador's national territory in which senior commander Raúl Reyes was killed. In July, an attempt is made at rescuing several hostages from the FARC but that fails and all hostages are killed by Colombian security forces. This results in a local crisis that force Washington to increase its military support to that country.
In Asia, Demonstrations by Tibetan separatists turn violent as rioters target government and Han Chinese-owned buildings. The Chinese repression is condemened by all western countries but the games are not boycotted. However, several political leaders, including the French and American presidents refuse to attend the opening ceremonies and conduct negociations with the Dalai Lama. This is taken as an insult by the Chinese President and by a majority of the Chinese people. Following, the end of the games, there is an increase in military enrollment and China starts its own military built up, increasing its collaboration with Russia.
Moreover, on the opening day of the Olympic Games at Beijing, August 7th, the South Ossetia War begins as Georgia launches an offensive inside that separatist region. Russia reacts with brutal force and the world slowly slips toward global conflict. On August 12th, the Russian President said that he had ordered an end to military operations in Georgia. On the same day, he approved a six-point peace plan brokered by the President-in-Office of the European Union in Moscow; both sides were to sign it by the 17th. Everyone starts to think that the crisis was over but that was far from the truth. The USA and the EU had shown a wide support to Georgia, Russia grows tired of this and, on August 26th, it unilaterally recognizes the independence of the other Georgian breakaway republic of Abkhazia.
In addition, at the beginning of September, Russia receives support from several former soviet republics: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kirgizhistan, Tadjikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. On September 9th, the President-in-Office of the EU is again at Moscow where he receives word that the Russians will have withdrawn all their troops by mid-October. However, when October 15th come, the Russian troops remain in place and Syria also recognizes the republic’s independence, getting military support from the Kremlin in return.
In Europe, early in the year, Kosovo formally declares independence from Serbia, with support from EU but opposition from others. As a result, after the Georgian crisis, the Serbian President signs a Mutual Defense Treaty with Russia. Ireland votes to reject the Treaty of Lisbon, in the only referendum to be held by a European Union member state on the treaty and starts the Second European Crisis. Meanwhile, Russia stages the largest naval exercise since the fall of the Soviet Union in the Bay of Biscay. The Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, along with 11 support vessels and 47 long-range bomber aircraft, practises strike tactics off the coast of France and Spain, and test-launched nuclear-capable missiles on foreign waters.
The financial and economical crisis accelerate toward fall and the stock markets plunged even more than in the Spring. In the U.S. the public plans designed to save the finacial world seem not to be working entirely and several banks are facing bankrupcy. In mid-November, the crisis goes to the large industries and unemployment grows more quickly. In Europe the finacial plan proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy is refused by a large part of the EU members and that starts the Third European Crisis. Christmas time doesn’t change anything and the people consumption goes down tremendously. Moreover, throughout fall, as oil price is going down again, the OPEP reduces its production while Russia switches part of its exports to China, in return for a fixed price.

In November, the world forgets the crisis for a time as it turns its attention to the American presidential elections that are confortably won by a Democrat candidate who gather all the hope on his shoulders. In early December, the elected-President annouces that he will replace Donald Rumsfeld (Secretary of Defense) and the Secretary of State. Both of the new secretaries are Republicans and the President explains that in the face of the current crisis they appeared to him as the wisest choice. In the meantime, multiple actions are still taking place at the diplomatic level: France joins NATO integrated command again and a special U.S. ambassador adresses the UN after the terrorist attack that stroke Bombay in late November. In front of the assembly, the U.S. ambassador states the following: “Again you are witnessing what terrorism is all about. Nevertheless, many still refuse to trust what is right for the people of the world. I’ll add that if people facing an oppressive regime have the right to self determination, democracies are a shield to oppression and democracies’ territorial integrity has to be respected under all circumstances. Anyone opposing democracy with the force of arms is a terrorist. Sadly, UN has often given its support to terrorists”. Several countries, including China and Russia, are outraged and the world starts to worry. Before New Year’s Eve, the stock market goes down even more, the dollars falls down in front of euros, and the oil prices start to rise again.

2009
When the new President gets into office, on January 20th, he is facing a major crisis. U.S. Car makers are going to banckrupcy, the Japanese are closing their factories all over the country and unemployement is now skyrocketing. Washington tries to soften the crisis by taking over part of the car industry but GDP is decreasing fast. As a result, the debt grows to unprecedented level, China gets more and more U.S. state bonds, and even Russia lends money to U.S. administration.
In Europe, the situation is not much better. Ireland and Iceland are both going bankrupt despite help from the FMI. Various industries are suffering and unemployment soon reaches 10% of the population but the general situation remains better than in the U.S. as no major actor goes to banckrupcy. However, at the political level, the EU is more and more devided and it fails to take any cohesive decision .
Then, a diplomatic crisis is appearing in top of that when, on February 22nd, Russian leaders from Crimea declare their independence from Ukraine and ask for Russia’s protection. On the 24th, a number of Russian units enter Crimea but no fightings take place. On the next day, Ukraine calls for NATO assitance but the west is devided and concentrating on their own problems. Nevertheless, U.S. President calls for the Russian troops to leave Crimea but this call is ignored by the Kremlin which, in addition, shut down all gas export to Ukraine. On March 10th, after more than a month of negociation, both the USA and the EU stop all exportations to Russia. This was expected to end the crisis but it only increases it as Russia turns on China. A new commercial agreement is quickly signed between the two giants and that affects even more the world economy. As China increases its exports to Russia, it reduces slightly its exports to the West. As a result, by the end of June, inflation is going up by 10%, the western economy is losing 20% of its monetary value, and oil market is up to 180$ a barrel. Hopefully, India pushes its production and that slows down the effect of the Sino-Russian Trade Union.
Over time, the crisis is putting more and more strain to the ongoing military efforts of the U.S. and NATO in Iraq and Afghanistan. Washington is unable to send the planned reinforcement and, looking for support, the U.S. President, in agreement with the Iraqi government in Baghdad, asks for more authonomy to the Kurdish. Moreover, he strongly warns Turkey about any more actions taht would be taken over the Iraqi border. That infuriates the Turkish President, Turkey resigns from NATO and it closes the Bosphorus to all NATO military shipping.
On August 4th, in the middle of increasing tensions Russia and its allies meet at Astrakhan. On August 9th, the Chinese and Russian Presidents announce the creation of an abusively called Warsaw Pact 2. This military alliance is signed primarily between Russia and China but it includes also several other countries : Belarus, Bulgaria, Kazakstan, Kirghizistan, Mongolia, Syria, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Immediatly, they forbid NATO to supply its forces in Afghanistan through their territories. In addition to this, a growing instability starts to shake Pakistan and, as a result, NATO high command is facing increasing difficulties and casualties in that country. On December 11th, despite what was said by the U.S. President a year earlier, they withdraw from Afghanistan and Hamid Karzai regime is left to its own.
Another move from the countries in Warsaw Pact 2 is to accelerate their new arm building. In Russia and China the most recent design are going out of the production lines at an increased rate: Type 99 MBT, Balck Eagle MBT, BMP-3, BTR-90, Su-34, Su-30MK, J-10, Borey-class... All countries in the Pact are receiving new equipments and many of their ancient ones are being refited. In addition, China transfers the aircraft carrier Varyag to the Russian Pacific Fleet while Russia starts building a two other aircraft carriers: the “Orel” and “Ulyanovsk”. Meanwhile Russia is sending teams of specialists in order to help the Chinese refit the Kiev and the Minsk.
In the West, all leaders are well aware of the danger, but the reactions are largely different from one country to another. Everywhere, equipments that were to be scrapped are being stored. Germany and the countries of eastern Europe, not as hardly touched by the crisis, are increasing their arm production and expending their arm forces. France renounces to reduce its armed forces any further and a sister ship to the Charles de Gaulle is being built while the Foch is refited in order to be put back in action. The United Kingdom and Spain, more weakened than other EU members, have limited path of actions but UK accelerates the work on the ordered carrier and buys a number of equipements from abroad. In the USA, the financial and economical doom that country is facing forces the U.S. administration to refuse any major changes concerning defense. Nevertheless, the President launches a major naval refitting program and all ships that still can be refited are to be put in reserve. Taking this decision, he forces the various shipyards to draw on the people that had lost their jobs in the car industry.

2010
This is a year of ever growing tensions. The USA are not yet recovering from depression and the GDP growth rate is largely negative and businesses continue to go bankrupt. However, the refiting program launched for the navy has limited the unemployment growth and wages are more stable. Nevertheless, the U.S. President still has to slow down various military programs and the Joint Strike Fighter project is postpone. The sole exceptions are the small nuclear warheads made again to be fitted with tomahawks, and the ABM shield deployed in eastern Europe and in the USA. In addition, plans are made to quickly expand the Army and the Air Force in case of needs. Pulling out of Iraq has proved impossible, however, and the U.S. forces remain overstreched there while the continuous operations are costing all of the available money.
The EU, on the other hand, is already showing some signs of recovering as employment stabilises again while the GDP growth rate remains only slightlly negative. The effects on the armed forces are quick to come and they are now expending in every country if slowly. The Eurofighter and the Rafale continue to come out of production lines and older aircrafts are undergoing refit, allowing for a quick increase in various Air Forces. France launches a third aircraft carrier, modeled on the British design, to be named Clemenceau and the Foch achieves refit. However, the UK pushes again the work on their new aircraft carrier program and launches more Type 45 destroyers. Most European countries expends their military budget and old units are slowly reactivated while new equipment are being built everywhere.
With the increase in the rearming of Western Europe, the members of Warsaw Pact 2 level up their cooperation and the former soviet republics are forming the “Russian Union of Sovereign States” when the 1991 treaty is finally ratified. Moreover, the modernisation of military equipments is quickly accelarating and this allow for the reactivation of several units while cold war figures are met again. In China, the Kiev and the Minsk (renamed Beijing and Shanghai) are achieving their refit while brand new Yak-141 are received from Russia. North Korea finally becomes a formal member of Warsaw Pact 2 and the west discovers that its army has received a fair amount of modern equipments when an american U-2 is shot down by o Korean Su-30.

In Georgia and Ukraine, occasional skirmishes occur between Russians and forces of these two countries but the situation doesn’t degenerate. Also, in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan joins with NATO and its claims on Nagorno-Karabakh are met with increasing support from the West. This is to the dismay of Armenia and Yervan joins with Warsaw Pact 2. Nevertheless, Armenia is surrounded and, in case of conflict, it can only hope for a quick push by Pact forces to escape annihilation. NATO is well aware of this and it increases the sending of advisors and equipments to both Azerbaijan and Georgia while U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq are increased again. This is taken as a a threat by Iran and the President declares his country in favor of Warsaw Pact 2. Nevertheless, Iran doesn’t join the Pact as a full fledge member and consequently receives more limited help than Syria. As an answer to this move by Iran, Egypt and Morocco are confirmed as major non-NATO allies in the Mediterranean.
In Afghanistan, the country is again in a stage of civil war and Hamid Karzai government falls in May. Fightings among the various tribes continue and this civil war quickly spread to Pakistan. That country, has experienced numerous unrest and riots since Musharaff resigned and chaos only stops in October when a new military coup is staged by several generals. The army is moving everywhere but fightings continue in the tribal regions with Talibans and in the southern Baluchi’s region with “Jundallah” (the Sword of Allah). The first is backed by Iran and China but the second receives help from the U.S. as it is seen by U.S. administration as a major actor in the planned destabilization of Iran
In Latin America, the Latin Social Union (L.S.U.) goes from word to action when all members reduce their exportations of oil and raw materials to the West. As a result, oil market rises above 200$, a level it had never reached so far. Moreover, Russian troops (Division “Latin America”) are sent to Venezuela, a major naval base is being built outside Maracaibo, and all countries in the Union are receiving equipments from Russia. As an answer to this new threat, the U.S. reinforces its positions in Panama, reactivates the bases that had been closed in Honduras, and slightly increases again its military aid to Colombia. However, the 4th U.S. Fleet, reformed in mid-2008, remains largely understrength and receives only token reinforcements.
With the world economic crisis still growing all year long, instability rises even more in the third world and insurgent movements that had been down for some times are becoming active again. This is especially true for Africa where most countries are experiencing some kind of unrest while the Second Congo War is heating up again. This results from the slow disengagement of the UN and, by year’end, several other countries and regions are experiencing various level of civil war: Angola, eastern Sahara, Guinea, the Horn of Africa, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Sudan and Zimbabwe. Moreover, the African Union disolve on Christmas Day. In South America, the various guerillas are active again with the support from one side or another : the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Union, the EZLN in Chiapas and the FARC in Colombia (Warsaw Pact 2 and Latin Socialist Union) on one side; the Nuevo Contras of Nicaragua and a new Shinning Path in Peru on the other side. In the Middle East, NATO backs the PKK in Kurdistan and the Baluchis in both Iran and Pakistan (Jundallah) while Russia is supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as the Iraqi Sunny and Shia resistance. In Asia, however, none of the two blocks are directly involved but several insurgencies are gaining strength again: Tamil in Sri Lanka, Moro in the Philippines, Kachin Independent Army in Burma and some growing unrest in Indonesia. Even India, slowly becoming very wealthy, is not going away from this and it faces a growing terrorism from the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (North East) and from the Communist Party of India (Maoist).

Last edited by Mohoender; 12-12-2008 at 01:51 AM.
Reply With Quote