Quote:
Originally Posted by bobcat
honestly i would see it more plausible to see a rift and significant altercation between US gangs and mexican cartels. some unforeseen shift in the power dynamics such as new supply lines from china allowing gangs to secure alternative drug supplies which could lead the cartels to take some action which would kick off a significant confrontation.
following this line we would see the cartels with weapons procured from the mexican military(which is a known source of arms for many cartels) and their madmax style armored vehicles making gains against the gangs which would respond initially with IED's and whatever arms they have on hand and depending on how laterally diversified their new supply line is perhaps even warsaw pact issue anti-armor weapons.
this scenario would place the federal and state governments in a peculiar situation. support either side against the other would be political suicide, but the resources to respond in kind to both sides just aren't there. to completely ruin contingency planning the option of trying to ignore the situation would be untenable as civilian casualties and collateral damage mounts and as both sides begin absorbing smaller gangs and cartels in an effort to outman, outgun, and outflank their respective adversaries.
granted if such a scenario were to even become 'highly likely' the US Attorney General would quickly ready the surprisingly limited paperwork to suspend posse comitatus and allow federal military forces to assist in law enforcement activities(it has been done before with far less provocation). the interesting thing to consider is what if such an event occurred during the lead up to WW3? say a modified TW2013 scenario. LEA would have a clear case to request and possibly even receive last gen IFV's and anti-armor weapons. there would be a massive buildup of military power in police and even civilian hands as both agencies and civilians remember such an event would be concerned about it occuring again. this could radically change the prospects of an invasion from the south.
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In my Timeline, Mexico and Guatemala are "Narco-Puppet States" controlled by the Cartels. The US is actively pushing for a "regime change" in Mexico which prompts the Cartels to give AKs and RPGs purchased from Mexico's new friend/benefactor Russia (in exchange for much needed hard currency) to the drug gangs which are loyal to the Cartels. This "escalation" causes opposing gangs and local police to "up gun" as well. The ever more aggressive US policy towards Mexico forces the Cartels to start buying "big." T55Ms with reactive armor and thermal imaging, older MCLOS & SACLOS AT & AA missiles as well as other surplus AFVs. The Russians even send trainers (under the name "Division Cuba" to fool US intelligence agencies about its real objective) to aid the Cartels in resisting US attempts to overthrow their regime. The US-Mexican (and Guatemalan) war starts after the US seizes Mexican oil platforms in the Gulf and bombs her refineries to prevent the Russians from receiving Mexican assistance during the Twilight War.