Quote:
Originally Posted by castlebravo92
Yeah, but then again, I don't see Mexico going deep into Arizona… Probably would not be a fun situation to be in.
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Agreed. Much of Southern Arizona sucks to walk through, is questionable in a vehicle, and even can be questionable for rotary wing (Colorado can be worse, but try hot and high in a UH-1 or A model Blackhawk in AZ with fully kitted passengers). Maneuver on the high ground is the almost exclusive province of light or airmobile infantry and the flats provide ample IV lines and wadis that can be both obstacles and micro terrain cover (or be deadly in the monsoon).
Despite the “allure” of charging north into AZ, I think the most likely outcome is that both sides culminate short of a decisive engagement and are left with a security zone/no man’s land between Nogales, AZ and South Tucson. The US is too weak/disputed to push south (and what do they really gain?) and the Mexican Army lacks the combat power to push north and is content to maintain a “Liberated Zone” in the upper Santa Cruz River basin.
With the lack of aerial platforms, I could see both sides trying their hand at raiding using light forces infiltrated through the mountains. However, even that would probably die out as target sets are depleted through breakdown/lack of supply and capacity dwindles. Probably a bad time to be in green valley or sahuarita. I’m thinking they’re probably rubble in the middle of no-man’s land by the time things stabilize.
“Victory” for Mexico probably consists of dropping overpasses/bridges or cratering I-10 to say they cut it, and maybe some raids or bombardments of infrastructure (DMAFB as a symbolic target?) before pulling back to the south with their effective FLOT just north of Nogales, AZ. “Victory” for the US is keeping control of Tucson, retaining the ability to extract resources as permitted, and being able to keep the remaining irrigation/farming/ranching base going to feed the populace and military. This is an area where both sides could easily say they “won”, while allowing things to dwindle as they focus on securing resources and maintaining internal security.
I wonder what Tucson would look like circa 2000-2001. I’m thinking population would have moved close to the river or gone up into high ground like mount Lemmon or elsewhere in the Santa Catalina’s where water is more available and temperatures are more moderate. Maybe dry land agriculture around the riparian areas to the east and west?