Quote:
Originally Posted by kato13
The China thread has brought up an interesting point about how oil would have gotten to China during the initial phases of the war.
Is there any canon summary anywhere of how the oil trade was disrupted/changed until the nuke exchange (I am thinking Kings Ransom might mention it).
Barring that does anyone have thoughts on how Oil/NG logistical routing might change.
I am assuming Europe loses Russian NG at some point and Alaska might need to provide the US with some losses from the gulf.
Any thoughts?
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Haven't seen any canon reference to how oil got to China during initial phases of the war, although it is quite possible I have overlooked one. Oil shipments from the Middle East to China would have been a priority target for Soviet submarines in the Indian and Pacific Ocean, and even non-Chinese tankers heading into the South China Sea would have been a big target.
In V.1 Vietnam is pro-Soviet and at war with China and sailing anywhere near the Vietnamese coast were Soviet naval forces are known to be present would be a major risk for shipping.
Other countries including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc also imported a lot of oil from the Middle East. It is likely that tanker routes to these countries would be altered to avoid the Sino-Soviet war. Oil tankers heading to Japan for example might sail in convoys south of the traditional Strait of Malacca route, and head through the Timor Sea near Australia and up into the Pacific to the west of the Philippines and then onto the west coast of Japan. The Soviets would be notified in advance of these convoys to avoid attacks on neutral shipping, and they would likely be escorted by Japanese or South Korean warships and maybe even the US Navy as well as they are US allies. Some Chinese tankers may tag along on these convoys as the Soviets would be reluctant to attack them.
Also the major Chinese port on the South China Sea is Hong Kong, and at this period it was still a British territory. British tankers may be shipping oil to China via Hong Kong, and attacking British tankers under Royal Navy escort would be a big risk for Soviet submarines due to the fact that it would be a direct attack on NATO shipping.
As for gas shipments to Western Europe from Russia, I think its a fair assumption that it will be cut off once the West Germans cross the inter-German border. Probably a big increase in US oil and gas production is Alaska and Gulf of Mexico once the Twilight War swings into full force, and probably a lot of oil and gas coming up from Venezuela as well.