The UK Survivor's Handbook suggested that the first big conflict on Mainland Britain after HM Government started to expand again would be between Wales and HMG along the Anglo-Welsh border. If the french were eager to make mischief in the UK, they might want to arm the Welsh forces first.
Scotland and HMG would be unlikely to butt heads for years apart from small scale skirmishes probably involving commando style raids against Scottish coastal towns if HMG wanted anything up there.
I suppose HMG might want to establish a forward logistical base to service the North Sea oil rigs, but to seriously threaten Scotland, HMG will already have had to take out a lot of warlords and re-integrate ten times or more the trritory they already control into the fold. In addition they will have either come to an accomodation with the Welsh or fought some sort of military action.
I don't see military conflict between Scotland and HMG for many years, if ever, more likely they'll come to a political agreement of some sort.
That means that if I were the French, I'd either arm the Welsh first as they seem to be more militantly minded toward HMG, or just sit back and see what happens, it's not like the English are going to be a threat to France for a long, long time.
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