As the US prevailing winds are west to east, perhaps somehow working a bit of randomness into it might not be a bad idea. Would need to skew the possible results towards the prevailing winds of course, but like you say, thermal effects, and normal storm fronts etc will certainly have an impact.
These variations are likely to be relatively short lived I'd think though - perhaps hours, maybe a few days to a week in duration.
Wind speed is another variable you might want to consider, perhaps humidity (especially heavy rain or snow) could contribute also.
I wonder how much a Cyclone/Hurricane or tornados would screw things up?
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