YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Olefin]

The Soviets didnt even have a 25MT warhead - and why would you use a 25MT warhead to take out just a refinery - plus I think the use of such big warheads would have been way beyond what was considered a limited strike - a 25 MT warhead would have destroyed most of the city and the base

I am thinking we are looking more at a 250kt weapon and not 25MT - that could explain the survival of the base- along with the nuke detonating to the south of the refinery where it still takes it out but not the base along with it

[.45cultist]

I grafted the T2013 section here, The U.S. invading for Mexico's Industry and oil makes more sense. Even Division Cuba couldn't elevate a third tier internal defense structured army. I even threw in covert support from China.

[swaghauler]

As is typical for me, I completely changed the US-Mexican relationship by making Mexico become a Narco-Puppet state in 1995. The Cartels took over the country (through rigged elections) and then began buying loads of Russian tech in exchange for drug money (Russia DESPERATELY needed hard currency and the Cartels need weapons) to keep US backed rebels at bay. Russia then sends "Division Cuba" to train the Cartel's "Mexican Army" in order to stand up to the US. After war breaks out, the US takes control of several Mexican oil platforms, triggering the Second US-Mexican War. As things begin to deteriorate, the US nukes Mexico to keep her resources out of her Russian "benefactor's" hands. This how I justify the war.

[The Dark]

Originally Posted by .45cultist

I grafted the T2013 section here, The U.S. invading for Mexico's Industry and oil makes more sense. Even Division Cuba couldn't elevate a third tier internal defense structured army. I even threw in covert support from China.

Invading for Mexico's oil would have problems. In the 90s, half of their production came from the Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico off Campeche (the southwestern part of the Yucatan). The next most important field is the Golden Lane, across the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan. The largest reserves are in Chicontepec, but they're technically unfeasible to exploit (even now). That's near Mexico City. The oil fields are pretty much all in the south of Mexico, either on land or in the coastal waters, so an invasion from the north will have to drive through the entire country to reach the fields.

Industry I know less about, other than that (in our timeline) it spiked from the mid-90s (when American demand increased) until around 2000 (when China undercut Mexican labor costs). I don't know if the same spike would have happened in the T2K timeline.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by The Dark

Invading for Mexico's oil would have problems. In the 90s, half of their production came from the Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico off Campeche (the southwestern part of the Yucatan). The next most important field is the Golden Lane, across the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan. The largest reserves are in Chicontepec, but they're technically unfeasible to exploit (even now). That's near Mexico City. The oil fields are pretty much all in the south of Mexico, either on land or in the coastal waters, so an invasion from the north will have to drive through the entire country to reach the fields.

Industry I know less about, other than that (in our timeline) it spiked from the mid-90s (when American demand increased) until around 2000 (when China undercut Mexican labor costs). I don't know if the same spike would have happened in the T2K timeline.

Yes it has problems too, what if one has one of the factions ask for aid, another asks the Soviets and that leads to the invasion?

[mpipes]

Originally Posted by Olefin

The Soviets didnt even have a 25MT warhead - and why would you use a 25MT warhead to take out just a refinery - plus I think the use of such big warheads would have been way beyond what was considered a limited strike - a 25 MT warhead would have destroyed most of the city and the base

I am thinking we are looking more at a 250kt weapon and not 25MT - that could explain the survival of the base- along with the nuke detonating to the south of the refinery where it still takes it out but not the base along with it

The SS-18 Mod3 carried a single 25Mt RV. We believed it was intended for NORAD HQ at Cheyenne Mountain and other super hardened sites.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by mpipes

The SS-18 Mod3 carried a single 25Mt RV. We believed it was intended for NORAD HQ at Cheyenne Mountain and other super hardened sites.

actually I was right - its a .25MT not a 25MT - Raellus had both in his post

but he is right about where it had to hit - the only way that Fort Bliss is spared is if the warhead goes off over Ciudad Juarez and misses to the south, still taking out the refinery with the thermal pulse but leaving Fort Bliss intact

[The Dark]

Originally Posted by Olefin

actually I was right - its a .25MT not a 25MT - Raellus had both in his post

but he is right about where it had to hit - the only way that Fort Bliss is spared is if the warhead goes off over Ciudad Juarez and misses to the south, still taking out the refinery with the thermal pulse but leaving Fort Bliss intact

Looking at NUKEMAP, a direct hit on the refinery will put the HQ of Fort Bliss on the edge of the radius for broken windows from a 25kT warhead, with a 50 percent chance of first-degree burns up to the middle of the cemetery. Most of Biggs Army Airfield would be outside of all effect radii (a tiny portion of the airfield is within the "slight chance of first-degree burn" radius), as would the vast ranges up to the border and into New Mexico (recall that Fort Bliss has the largest maneuver area of any base, at 992,000 acres, and is the second-largest facility overall, with only the adjacent White Sands being bigger). If it misses by a mile to the east or south, the base would be pretty much completely unscathed, and in any case the ranges will be undamaged.

[Olefin]

FYI the new stuff I am working on is a possible trilogy looking at events in the summer of 2001 in California, Arizona and New Mexico as Milgov forces and the weather changes both begin to take their toll on the Mexican forces in those states - which was never really looked at by the original writers as they stopped the timeline in the US basically in mid-April

I plan to address one of the big issues in the post T2K canon - the idea of the Mexican occupation of areas on CA north of San Diego - which considering basically all the water for those areas comes from the US and from areas under Milgov control would make almost impossible - especially as there is no electricity to run the pumps that move that water over the top of mountains

[Olefin]

One of the big things I saw as completely unrealistic in the 2300AD timeline is Mexico not only keeping Texas for close to a hundred years after the war but also most of the American Southwest as well - even to the point of the US not assisting the California rebels to win their fight against Mexico.

There is no way that the US, by a hundred years plus after the war, isnt rebuilt to where it could easily beat Mexico in a war. Plus to add to that almost the entire area they took in Arizona and California is totally dependent on water from areas the US still has. There is no way you get Mexico keeping Los Angeles and Phoenix going without water from the Colorado or pumped from the north of California - certainly not as cities numbering in the multiple of millions.

That was a serious miss by the writers and one that really needs to be corrected.

Let alone the US allows Mexico to conquer all of Central America and Cuba long after the war? Sorry but not going to happen. Especially not Cuba - by that time the US has long built up again - and you are not going to see them let Mexico conquer Cuba and be able to possibly shut off access to the Gulf of Mexico.

And by then in the timeline the US was back in space as well - showing they are not some weakling of a country that Mexico could push around with ease.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

One of the big things I saw as completely unrealistic in the 2300AD timeline is Mexico not only keeping Texas for close to a hundred years after the war but also most of the American Southwest as well - even to the point of the US not assisting the California rebels to win their fight against Mexico.

There is no way that the US, by a hundred years plus after the war, isnt rebuilt to where it could easily beat Mexico in a war. Plus to add to that almost the entire area they took in Arizona and California is totally dependent on water from areas the US still has. There is no way you get Mexico keeping Los Angeles and Phoenix going without water from the Colorado or pumped from the north of California - certainly not as cities numbering in the multiple of millions.

That was a serious miss by the writers and one that really needs to be corrected.

Let alone the US allows Mexico to conquer all of Central America and Cuba long after the war? Sorry but not going to happen. Especially not Cuba - by that time the US has long built up again - and you are not going to see them let Mexico conquer Cuba and be able to possibly shut off access to the Gulf of Mexico.

And by then in the timeline the US was back in space as well - showing they are not some weakling of a country that Mexico could push around with ease.

The Mexican invasion of the American southwest was I think one of the great escapes from realties in the Twilight War. I can see why GDW included it and the Mexicans could pull of an invasion in the scenario were the US is heavily damaged from nuclear attack. But invading the entire southwest and then holding and keeping it are two completely different things. Once US regular forces turn up after the Mexican invasion then its game over. The Mexicans are not well equipped enough to take on veteran US forces even with the Soviet Cuba Division helping them. Also the US civil population is as well armed as your average Mexican soldier.

Even if this was not the case once the rest of the US gets back on its feet then they are going to want their territory back, and without outside help (aka the French) the Mexicans wont be able to hold the southwest for long.

There are some alternative versions of 2300AD which place Cuba outside of Mexican control. Ben Levy's site even has Cuba as a US state. I think Puerto Rico is also now a US state in some versions. I've seen another scenario which has America retaking control of the southwest fairly quickly after Texas wins its independence from Mexico, and then invading and incorporating the whole of Baja California into the US.