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Old 02-17-2010, 04:15 PM
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pmulcahy11b pmulcahy11b is offline
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Default Are Israel and Egypt still friends in T2K?

I've wondered this ever since I bought my first copy of v1 in November of 1984. Would the Egyptians and the Israelis still be friends? Uneasy allies? Mutual defense and support pact? Frenemies, to borrow a term from Facebook? Sort of like the US is with Saudi Arabia -- we don't really like them, but we need something from them?
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Old 02-17-2010, 06:55 PM
John Farson John Farson is offline
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Didn't Mohoender once post a scenario where 97% of Egypt's population was killed as a result of the Russians nuking the Aswan Dam and the ensuing tsunami?

If such a thing happened, then Israel's and Egypt's relations would be a moot point, as the latter would have simply ceased to exist as a national entity. There would simply be a big wasteland between Gaza and Cyrenaica. The Israelis' concerns with regards to Egypt might solely be to make sure that the survivors don't try to overrun the border in the form of desperate refugees or lawless raiders.
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Old 02-17-2010, 07:54 PM
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I think Libya was nuked and we can assume the Suez received a few hits also (it's just too important to leave alone!).
I'm not too familiar with Egypts populated areas, but one would think most would be concentrated along the coastline and Nile river valley and therefore be very suceptible to the Aswan damn being destroyed.

How would this effect relations with Israel? Not too sure, but with the canal glowing in the dark and Egypt possibly being in chaos, I'd imagine Israel could turn their attentions (and military) elsewhere, possibly moving up into Palestine and as we know, sending a token force over into Iran.

Israel itself probably would have been hit with a few strikes of it's own (and likely launched a few too if rumour of them having nukes is to be believed). Who launched them though? My guess is the USSR had something to do with it to support their allies in the region and possibly knock Israel out of the war in Iran.

It is my belief therefore that although both Egypt and Israel are in a sorry state, Israel is probably the better off (just). Therefore it is possible a substantial number of Egyptian refugees would be trying to cross over and seek a better life. This may cause tensions between what's left of the two governments and could potentially lead to conflict on a small scale (possibly restricted to naval action as a Sinai covered with radioactive fallout wouldn't be a nice place to try crossing).
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Old 02-17-2010, 08:55 PM
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I think that from 1996 onwards Israel would be even more nervous than usual and would be very blunt in its dealings with its immediate neighbours (ie "make one wrong move toward us and we will end you"). Because let's face it, Israel's neighbours are all going to be either under martial law, in states of civil war or under the control of Islamo-fascists and I expect they will all be biding their time until they think they can get away with attacking Israel. Certainly WWIII isn't going to make hostilities against Israel less likely.

I think once the nukes start to fly Israel would be even less likely to show restraint. Depending on the method of the nuke's delivery I would definitely list Israel as one of the possible suspects in the destruction of the Aswan Dam. The Israeli forces listed in the RDF Sourcebook would have been sent to ensure that the US and Israel's other powerful western allies were still on their side.

I find it a bit odd that Israel wasn't mentioned as being nuked in any of the T2K canon. One or two even quite modest nukes would put a massive dent in Israel being a high-tech nation or a military power. I guess they got lucky.
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Old 02-17-2010, 10:13 PM
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I would say that probably as much as 50-60% of Egypt's population would be gone if the Aswan dams were hit with a nuke (there are two dams, the earlier British Empire one built in the late 1800s or early 1990s I think and the larger one built in the 1950-60s with Soviet funding that is some distance from the British damn). The vast majority of the population live right on the riverside with most of those population centres downriver from the dams. Some of the cities are sufficiently spread out that any flood waters would have minor impact on the outer reaches (I've spent a lot of time looking at Google Earth )

You have to consider too, that something like 80-90% of Egypt's agriculture is on the banks of the Nile, once its fertile soil is washed away it will not be until the next inundation of the Nile before fertile soil is again deposited along the river plain (actually it would probably take a few inundations and they only occur once a year). The rest of the country, aside from an oasis here and there, is very barren with little to no chance of finding any plantlife let alone any animals for food.
As for the Suez Canal, with it gone, the major source of revenue for the Egyptian government is lost (trying to recall what someone I know said about it, apparently the Suez is the biggest income earner with some coal and gas in the Sinai as second and tourism is third or fourth but these figures come from the late 1990s-early 2000s)

So, no money and no food - I think there would be a lot of desperate Egyptians loading up there trucks and driving to Israel and Jordan (they don't much like the Libyans or the Saudis apparently so they might not try to survive that length of travel) and those in Alexandria would possibly try for Crete or Cyprus (I tend to think Port Said on the Suez would be a target for at least one warhead).
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Old 02-18-2010, 07:52 AM
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Default Egyptian civil war

I see the potential for a devestating civil war in Egypt .Should the central gov loose influence over remote areas or start to wobble ( any further ) , the gap between the Islamists ,the poor rural population and the mainly urban or well off citizenry that support the US backed regime would turn into sides in an armed conflict .

This , in addition to possible damage to the Aswan dam or nuclear attacks on major metropolitan areas will leave Egypt in disarray and totally destabilized.

Egypt and Israel are not "friends" today - although Egypt enjoy better relations with israel than many arab nations.

Israel would have app 150 -200 nuclear warheads by 1995 . ( This is not guesswork , but documented by amongst others Morderchai Vanunu , former tech in their weapons program) .

It seem sclear that any sudden moves by Israels neighbours could unleash Israeli preemptive strikes that would destroy major cities and dismantle central control there.Standing firm against Israeli demands would be a dangerous course of action for Syria,Egypt,Iran etc after the major powers have begun deploying nukes or entered into massive conventional war.Without the restraint of the international community , it would seem unlikely that Israel would not take any or all measures deemed necessary to ensure its safety .

The nukes they have may well have been produced as a deterrent to their hostile,more populous neighbours.But in the face of all out war they would be used .Sparingly , but still .India and Pakistan would probably have lowered the bar on popping nukes in the T2K scenario too .



Quote:
Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic View Post
I would say that probably as much as 50-60% of Egypt's population would be gone if the Aswan dams were hit with a nuke (there are two dams, the earlier British Empire one built in the late 1800s or early 1990s I think and the larger one built in the 1950-60s with Soviet funding that is some distance from the British damn). The vast majority of the population live right on the riverside with most of those population centres downriver from the dams. Some of the cities are sufficiently spread out that any flood waters would have minor impact on the outer reaches (I've spent a lot of time looking at Google Earth )

You have to consider too, that something like 80-90% of Egypt's agriculture is on the banks of the Nile, once its fertile soil is washed away it will not be until the next inundation of the Nile before fertile soil is again deposited along the river plain (actually it would probably take a few inundations and they only occur once a year). The rest of the country, aside from an oasis here and there, is very barren with little to no chance of finding any plantlife let alone any animals for food.
As for the Suez Canal, with it gone, the major source of revenue for the Egyptian government is lost (trying to recall what someone I know said about it, apparently the Suez is the biggest income earner with some coal and gas in the Sinai as second and tourism is third or fourth but these figures come from the late 1990s-early 2000s)

So, no money and no food - I think there would be a lot of desperate Egyptians loading up there trucks and driving to Israel and Jordan (they don't much like the Libyans or the Saudis apparently so they might not try to survive that length of travel) and those in Alexandria would possibly try for Crete or Cyprus (I tend to think Port Said on the Suez would be a target for at least one warhead).
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