More on Prime Base-I've been off for a while

[cosmicfish]

By my reckoning, Burning Man takes place about 50-60 miles south of Prime Base*, "right outside" only on a national scale. And I see no reason why anyone at that location would choose to go further into a barren desert towards Prime Base, north is literally the hardest, least promising direction they could go. To be honest "refugees at the gates" was always a stretch when you consider the obstacles to travel in the region and that roads past it were hardly on the way to anywhere in particular.

Remember also that Prime Base didn't even unbutton until a couple of years post-war*, and what are the odds that Burning Man staffers would still be in the Black Rock Desert after all that time? These aren't really rugged survivalists, why didn't they head east or west towards towns and modest civilization? Prime Base could unbutton right after the war, notice a small group of people hours away, and risk the entire Project in an environment that could not possible have been adequately surveyed yet... but why would they?

*: Per 3ed, at least, since I do not have 4ed.

[RandyT0001]

An analogy for PB building a refugee camp just miles from the facility location.

War is declared and a US SSBM sub hears a Russian hunter killer sub enter it's launch box. Within a few minutes the US sub hears a ship enter its launch box which is identified as the 1500 passenger Princess Cruise ship. The US sub hears the torpedo attack by the Russian sub on the cruise ship which begins to sink. The signal to launch missiles is decoded by the US sub. Overwhelmed with outrage and hatred, the US sub commander ignores his launch mission which he has been training for years as a submariner and orders his crew to intercept the Russian hunter killer sub for an attack. All of the training, preparation, screening, and placement into a position of extreme responsibility is ignored as the command officers follow the commanders orders to attack the Russian sub.

We know that this situation could not happen on a US SSBM sub because the command crew would intervene, arrest the deranged commander, and pursue their actual mission of launching the missiles. The Navy trains them to do that and they are expected to do that, complete the mission.

The people put in charge of PB are not going to ignore their mission, either. They have been selected for their positions because they complete the mission without overt emotion.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

By my reckoning, Burning Man takes place about 50-60 miles south of Prime Base*, "right outside" only on a national scale. And I see no reason why anyone at that location would choose to go further into a barren desert towards Prime Base, north is literally the hardest, least promising direction they could go. To be honest "refugees at the gates" was always a stretch when you consider the obstacles to travel in the region and that roads past it were hardly on the way to anywhere in particular.

West takes you to Susanville and within the fallout patterns from Sierra Army Depot. South west takes you to Reno and Carson city which was nuked also. South takes you to Fallon, NV. Oops Naval Air Station Fallon NV also nuked. South east takes you toward Ely, NV and Great Basin National Park a desolate dry sage covered high desert. Further south takes you into the Nevada test range where nukes were detonated decades before. East takes you to The Great Salt Lake and the sand flats... Crossing that takes you to the nuclear fallout the was Hill Air force base, Ogden, Salt Lake City, and Toole Army Depot. North east takes you to the fallout and radioactivity that was Boise and Mountain Home Airforce base. North takes you to the crater that was the Air National guard base at Klamath Falls, OR.

So which direction do you think the refugees went?

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

So which direction do you think the refugees went?

Well, I think that these guys have been suggested as planning staff and early attendees to Burning Man, so I'm pretty sure they don't have any idea about any targets they don't actually see get hit, and have no idea about fallout patterns, and don't know where the different bases and test ranges are, but I'm betting that they would prefer to strike out towards the last town they passed, somewhere they can find help and find out what's going on. Perhaps Gerlach but certainly any direction but north towards Prime Base. If they don't know "this is the end" they're going to go towards civilization and if they DO know they'll probably still risk fallout and eventual cancer over dying alone in the high desert.

And even if they did, what are the odds they actually wind up near enough to Prime Base for it to be even noted? There's a lot of desert and not much else. And even if they, by luck or some brilliant bit of prescience that the deep desert is their best option they make it... why would Prime Base open? Because this would presumably be in the first hours or days after the war, when biological weapons and other problems would be at their highest and opening the base would be at the dumbest. And there is no way these guys are still surviving in the desert 2 years post war.

So yeah, my guesses are probably south to Gerlach or dead in the desert before Prime Base does anything or even notices them.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

So yeah, my guesses are probably south to Gerlach or dead in the desert before Prime Base does anything or even notices them.

That takes you to Wadsworth, NV about 15 miles east of Nevada on interstate 80....

So you get the initial rush of survivors from Reno and Carson City heading east. Their met by the truckers, tour buses, and cars from West Wendover, and others fleeing west from the nukes in Salt Lake City.

Now their city on the only east west path with mobs of more refugees coming at them . I-80 is a funnel for everyone coming out of Northern California trying to escape east.

North and slightly east to lightly populated eastern Oregon and the Snake River.... Cour'd' alene maybe?

Or maybe they just hold up on the Soldiers Meadow Dude Ranch, as it is one of the only areas with year around water?

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

That takes you to Wadsworth, NV about 15 miles east of Nevada on interstate 80....

So you get the initial rush of survivors from Reno and Carson City heading east. Their met by the truckers, tour buses, and cars from West Wendover, and others fleeing west from the nukes in Salt Lake City.

Now their city on the only east west path with mobs of more refugees coming at them . I-80 is a funnel for everyone coming out of Northern California trying to escape east.

North and slightly east to lightly populated eastern Oregon and the Snake River.... Cour'd' alene maybe?

Or maybe they just hold up on the Soldiers Meadow Dude Ranch, as it is one of the only areas with year around water?

So these refugees decide to go not with the crowd but towards a region so desolate that a dude ranch is the best chance they have for survival in the region, AND they know that ranch is there in the first place, AND they stay in the area long enough that they overwhelm the ranch's resources AND the Project notices them AND the Project decides to risk the entire Project to expose the headquarters at the worst possible time?

To quote the great Jayne Cobb, "Smelling a lot of 'if' comin' off this plan..."

There are two major issues.

First, the site for Prime Base was chosen specifically to be out of the way. It is hours of travel away from anyone who might have any reason to move, and it is hours away from those people in a direction that they have no reason to go unless they want a slow, lingering death in the desert. For them to go that direction requires that they have a massive amount of information that no one outside of Prime Base is likely to have at that point, and probably not even they have it.

Second, the timetable for this option requires that Prime Base not expose themselves at the beginning of operations but at the beginning of the "hide and watch" phase. It is the worst decision they could make and they would have to know it. They have minimal understanding of what is going on in the world, and refugees at this point are at the very most likely to be carrying a biological weapon. Heck, the war is not likely to be an "overnight" thing, Prime Base opening their doors could very well get seen on satellite and receive a nuke for their troubles! Prime Base has to stay hidden until they are sure that (a) everyone is done shooting and (b) there aren't any roaming hazards like biological weapons in the area.

So Prime Base falling because it takes on refugees from Burning Man requires both brilliantly informed refugees and even more colossal stupidity and disregard for "the plan" than ever. I just don't see it.

[ArmySGT.]

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

So these refugees decide to go not with the crowd but towards a region so desolate that a dude ranch is the best chance they have for survival in the region, AND they know that ranch is there in the first place, AND they stay in the area long enough that they overwhelm the ranch's resources AND the Project notices them AND the Project decides to risk the entire Project to expose the headquarters at the worst possible time?

To quote the great Jayne Cobb, "Smelling a lot of 'if' comin' off this plan..."

The Burning Man crowd is the crowd to follow in this case. They know how to organize on a big scale. The ranch like many others and the sources for water are all on standard topographical maps. North or Northeast are the only ways to logically go. They cannot stay on the Playa/Gerlach; and to the north is eastern Oregon which isn't much of a high desert except where OR/NV/ID come together. Eastern Oregon is plains and forested hills with lots of water and many, many ranches. The border with NV is where that is coming together. The valleys have seasonal creeks or runoff and year round ground water. The only issue is fallout from Sierra Army Depot and Carson City, NV and with diseases like cholera breaking out from poor sanitation discipline. There is pretty good game in the area. White tail deer and prong horns, along with feral cattle, goats, and wild horses. Rabbits seem to die by the dozens on the roadways without a dent in their population.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

There are two major issues.

First, the site for Prime Base was chosen specifically to be out of the way. It is hours of travel away from anyone who might have any reason to move, and it is hours away from those people in a direction that they have no reason to go unless they want a slow, lingering death in the desert. For them to go that direction requires that they have a massive amount of information that no one outside of Prime Base is likely to have at that point, and probably not even they have it.

Prime Base was sited and chosen specifically in the 1960s and 1970s.... They could not have anticipated all the aging hippies, anarchists, drug fueled electronic music kids, and their dealers coming to the Playa to get naked, stoned, and have orgies for a week in the summer. They didn't anticipate the growth of Gerlach and the federal agencies in the area to support the Burning Man event either.

It's all high desert. Low rainfall, but not the absolute lack of water. It is there to be found the area is blanketed in sage brush and cedar trees with grasses aplenty.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

Second, the timetable for this option requires that Prime Base not expose themselves at the beginning of operations but at the beginning of the "hide and watch" phase. It is the worst decision they could make and they would have to know it. They have minimal understanding of what is going on in the world, and refugees at this point are at the very most likely to be carrying a biological weapon. Heck, the war is not likely to be an "overnight" thing, Prime Base opening their doors could very well get seen on satellite and receive a nuke for their troubles! Prime Base has to stay hidden until they are sure that (a) everyone is done shooting and (b) there aren't any roaming hazards like biological weapons in the area.

I didn't say that Prime Base opened immediately. I gave a plausible enough reason for why there are refugees to be in the area.. because any other direction is dead, destroyed, polluted, or completely uninhabitable.... Nevada is a donut with an uninhabitable center that the USAF/USN enjoys the freedom to drop all manner of ordnance with a circle of habitable green all around it.

Originally Posted by cosmicfish

So Prime Base falling because it takes on refugees from Burning Man requires both brilliantly informed refugees and even more colossal stupidity and disregard for "the plan" than ever. I just don't see it.

Considering the staggering number of under 30 mulitmillionaire compsci tech Brogrammers in the Burning Man crowd and multimillionaire actors/actresses from Hollywood attending with their entourages..... still not that impossible.

[cosmicfish]

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

The Burning Man crowd is the crowd to follow in this case. They know how to organize on a big scale.

They know how to organize a long party and haven't had to do it without preexisting infrastructure in decades. Planning survival in a post-apocalypse setting is a real stretch of their abilities.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

The ranch like many others and the sources for water are all on standard topographical maps.

How many topo maps do they have? Seriously, because the internet just went down for good and I don't know how many Burning Man attendees are packing USGS surveys.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

North or Northeast are the only ways to logically go.

I categorically disagree. Gerlach and Empire to the south make absolute sense - they are far closer, have far more resources than anything north, and are probably already known to a large number of those in attendance. Long before you hit Fallon you hit Pyramid Lake. They don't know what was hit unless it was within maybe 50-100 miles or so, and they sure don't have any way to know where the fallout will be or how intense. They're not looking for someplace to whether a war, they're looking for someplace to get their collective crap together and preferably try and get back to their actual homes and loved ones. Going north does none of that. Going north makes sense only if they know everything that is going on and decide to abandon everything and gamble that a dude ranch in the desert is the best place to spend the rest of their lives. And if there is anything serious going on, heading to that dude ranch would have to be a one-way trip - can't count on gas being available, you set up shop there you're going to be walking 50 miles to Gerlach if you need anything!

Another question: how many people at Burning Man have vehicles?

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Prime Base was sited and chosen specifically in the 1960s and 1970s.... They could not have anticipated all the aging hippies, anarchists, drug fueled electronic music kids, and their dealers coming to the Playa to get naked, stoned, and have orgies for a week in the summer. They didn't anticipate the growth of Gerlach and the federal agencies in the area to support the Burning Man event either.

First, why not? It has always seemed weird to me that the Project had access to a genuine time traveler and yet get caught flat-footed all the time. I mean, sure they can't know everything... but Morrow never walks into a Project office and asks "got anything for me to take back to the 60's?" "Yeah boss, we knew you were coming because when you go back you tell them to plan for this. So here's a computer with an instruction manual. It has a lot of good stuff. See you next year!"

Second, Prime Base doesn't need to anticipate any of this. The only thing within 50 miles of desert is a single dude ranch, and the smartest thing they could do is buy the danged thing and then run it into the ground. And if someone shows up at their doorstep somehow, they just need to do the incredibly important jobs they have been training hard to do and keep the door shut.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

I didn't say that Prime Base opened immediately.

Not explicitly, but if they don't then this is a staggeringly irrelevant discussion. If they do not respond to people in the area then those people have no impact on the Project. The whole conversation started because tsofian brought up the role of refugees in the fall of the Project and you proposed Burning Man as the source. If they aren't the refugees for whom Prime Base opens.... then they are irrelevant to anything.

Or are you saying that they stay at the dude ranch for 2 years, and THEN Prime Base takes them in? Because at that point, they aren't refugees, they're settlers. They're doing okay.

Originally Posted by ArmySGT.

Considering the staggering number of under 30 mulitmillionaire compsci tech Brogrammers in the Burning Man crowd and multimillionaire actors/actresses from Hollywood attending with their entourages..... still not that impossible.

That does not at all sound like a crowd ready to tackle sociopathic* post-apocalyptic desert survival strategies, especially without the internet. Heck that sounds more like "get me back to civilization NOW so I can access my resources and comforts!" Seriously, that crowd has no particular knowledge or resources at Burning Man that they can leverage to help them here. I've spoken to Elon Musk, he's great in a certain role, he can't design 99% of what he is famous for producing and would not be high on my list of "guys I want leading if Mad Max isn't available."

*: Sociopathic not because of outsiders but because they are going to abandon everyone and everything they didn't bring to Burning Man with them, and instead head in a direction chosen only because they are experts on fallout who know what's been hit and by what and who have determined that a dude ranch in the high desert is going to be their "forever home" whether the occupants like it or not. They're sociopaths!

[ArmySGT.]

Now imagine if the Wasteland cosplayers were having their event as the War kicks off. https://www.wired.com/2016/09/wastel...man-look-lame/

and there is great pictures for you to use as wasteland neobarbs.