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Old 01-05-2010, 04:30 PM
John Farson John Farson is offline
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Default Japan in Twilight 2000

Hello, long-time lurker, first-time poster!

Something I've wondered about in Twilight 2000 is the situation in Japan after the nuclear exchange. I recall it being said in 2300AD that Japan emerged from the war more or less unscathed and that it was able to rebuild and prosper thanks to its merchant fleet, which was more or less intact. I thought such a concept was BS, because IRL Japan is very dependant on foreign trade and imports of natural resources and raw materials, like oil. According to this site, Japan's food self-sufficiency declined from 73 per cent in 1965 to 40 per cent in 1998. In addition, Japan has the lowest food self-sufficiency ratio among the advanced industrial nations and is the world's largest importer of agricultural products.

In a situation where the Russian/Soviet government faced nuclear distruction, I doubt they'd treat Japan with kid gloves, due to historical (Russo-Japanese War, World War II, historical rivalry of power and influence in the Far East) and geopolitical reasons. Just the concept of "deny critical resources to your enemy" would be sufficient grounds for the Russians to nuke not just the U.S bases in Okinawa and mainland Japan, but also critical strategic, political and industrial targets in order to make sure that the Japanese won't be landing forces in Vladivostok or stuff like that.

For the aforementioned reasons, it is my belief that post-TDM Japan would be the Asian version of Threads UK, i.e. utterly fucked. But I like to know what others here think, since I'm no expert with regards to these things.

BTW, the Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook has this to say about Japan: Fighting over the Kuriles and Sakhalin brought nuclear strikes on Japan in 1997. Japanese industry suffered significant damage and Tokyo is almost destroyed. Martial law hasn't been officially declared, but many areas are ruled de facto by JSDF officers who also possess civilian government posts. All communities are either isolated or independent, though nominally controlled by the government. The major cities have been destroyed, mostly due to social unrest caused by the cessation of world trade and imports.
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Old 01-05-2010, 04:31 PM
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Old 01-05-2010, 05:23 PM
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Welcome indeed.

Japan as far as I am aware was not a military ally of either side and did not directly take part in the fighting. Obviously it was still effected in some way, and I tend to agree it would have attracted at least a few nukes (I can see Japan being used in a similar manner as it was during the Vietnam and Korean wars, as a rear area for Nato).

With regard to food and other supplies, it's in a fairlly good position. While unable to support itself on the whole, it does have the advantage of being surrounded by sea and therefore much less able to be attacked by land forces. With all possible enemies already engaged in other parts of the world, this is probably less important than the availablity of fishing.

It may also have continued trade with Australia for it's grain and meat, although if it had been nuked, or even after EMP had effectively wiped out anything electronic, I'm not too sure what it would have to trade with. Spare parts to get damaged systems back up and running is possibly the best option, however Japan itself is unlikely to have much in the way of high tech production facilities left.
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:48 PM
John Farson John Farson is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker View Post
Welcome indeed.

Japan as far as I am aware was not a military ally of either side and did not directly take part in the fighting. Obviously it was still effected in some way, and I tend to agree it would have attracted at least a few nukes (I can see Japan being used in a similar manner as it was during the Vietnam and Korean wars, as a rear area for Nato).

With regard to food and other supplies, it's in a fairlly good position. While unable to support itself on the whole, it does have the advantage of being surrounded by sea and therefore much less able to be attacked by land forces. With all possible enemies already engaged in other parts of the world, this is probably less important than the availablity of fishing.

It may also have continued trade with Australia for it's grain and meat, although if it had been nuked, or even after EMP had effectively wiped out anything electronic, I'm not too sure what it would have to trade with. Spare parts to get damaged systems back up and running is possibly the best option, however Japan itself is unlikely to have much in the way of high tech production facilities left.
Thanks.

Good points. I agree that Japan wouldn't have been involved in the actual fighting, since its constitution prohibits it from any aggressive military action (even peacekeeping missions are controversial there). I have my doubts if they would have even tried to grab the Kuriles or Sakhalin, though the US would have no such hang-ups. The Kuriles are important to them, yes, but I don't think they'd be worth inviting a Russian nuclear attack. Therefore, I think any TW2000 fighting occurring around the Kuriles and Sakhalin was between US and allied forces and Russia, with Japan acting as a rear area, like you said.

About food, yes fishing is definitely in the cards. After all seafood, apart from rice, is the Japanese staple food. But with the nuclear attacks, the collapse in international trade and trade routes, the disruption in communications and the collapse of the transportation network I'm not as positive as you that Japan would stave off the worst disaster. True, Japan doesn't face invastion or any of that (what with China glowing in the dark and Siberia imitating the Mad Max flicks), but its worst enemies aren't China and Russia: It's famine, disease and social unrest. Just like the US Norhteast in Howling Wilderness, I can imagine hordes of hungry survivors from Japan's nuked out cities descending onto the countryside like locusts, devouring everything in their path despite staunch attempts by the rural folk to turn them back.

As for trade... well, based on what little I know about Twilight 2000 Asia and Oceania, it seems the only intact states left that Japan can trade with are Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, with organized communities scattered all over the place in the rest of the Pacific Rim with areas of lawlessness in between. All of these places are pretty far from Japan, so any trade venture wouldn't come cheap or easy. Fuel ranging from scarce to non-existant (I guess people would resort to steam or sail ships instead), GPS being a thing of the past, shortage of people who actually know how to sail and navigate etc. Then of course there's the issue of piracy. I imagine that after TDM the world's seas and oceans would have a piracy problem that'd make the one off Somalia look like a piece of cake by comparison. I can see many ordinary fisherman moonlighting as pirates just to make ends meet and feed their families.

And you touched upon the issue of just what would Japan (or rather individual Japanese communities, since central government would be more or less a bad joke at this point) have to trade. Spare parts for damaged systems would be a definite product, but like you said, it'd be unlikely that Japan would be able to produce them in sufficient quantities. Not to mention that the Japanese might prefer to keep them for themselves in the hope of fixing and rebuilding their own equipment. I could see an enterprising local leader or warlord do what the leader of Pittsburgh does in Fallout 3: the Pitt, that is using impressed "workers" to scavenge steel and metal as resources for the reopened steel mills and factories.
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Old 01-05-2010, 08:23 PM
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Hello John. You've really started posting here with a bang haven't you? Good topic for a thread, I like it. I agree that Japan would be a horrible mess by 2000. The fighting in Korea during the Twilight War was fierce, that alone would have resulted in some sort of spill-over effects for Japan. Japan would definitely have been nuked more than canon says.

Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook?
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Targan View Post
Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook?
Does anyone? This is the one T2K resource that I'd love to have, but due to the language issues, will probably never get.

Japan today is almost certainly overcrowded (just look at their trains), however a few nukes on the major cities should reduce this to a more managable level. Japan in years gone past has managed to feed itself, so provided the population was to drop to say 19th century levels, there shouldn't be too many empty stomachs compared to arible land.

Piracy in SE Asia is a definate problem even now. It's no uncommon for yachts, small boats even the odd larger cargo ship to be boarded. This problem as you point out is only likely to spread as long as there is trade being carried on in the region.

A route from Japan to Australia and New Zealand may avoid these troubles by staying well away from the tropical islands and heading along the Marianas, down to the Solomons, then either Fiji/Tonga if going to New Zealand, or Noumea. Not exactly the quickest of routes, but does avoid the traditionally dangerous waters around Indonesia and the Phillipines. With (sparsely) inhabited islands scattered along the path, navigation shouldn't be too hard provided an accurate compass and maps are on hand.

Sail power will of course be the easiest, however this isn't all that condusive to shifting large cargos of badly needed grain. The good news however is that coal should be readily available in Australia, particuarly in the Woolongong and Newcastle areas (respectively south and north of Sydney about a 100 miles or so). Newcastle also has a good deep water port and a history as an industrial city.

The problem is though that Newcastle, and to a lesser extent Wollongong are probable nuclear targets, primarily because of their coal, steel and ports (they're in my top 6 Australian target list). Another problem is Coal ceased to be a commonly used ship fuel a number of years ago. It would take time to convert diesel powered shipping (if it's even possible), however up until say mid 98 to early 99 I can see the government doing everything it could to keep trade with Japan continuing (Australia will desperately need the electonics to repair EMP damaged infrastructure).
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legbreaker View Post
Does anyone? This is the one T2K resource that I'd love to have, but due to the language issues, will probably never get.
The reason I asked is because John Farson said this:
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Originally Posted by John Farson View Post
BTW, the Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook has this to say about Japan: Fighting over the Kuriles and Sakhalin brought nuclear strikes on Japan in 1997. Japanese industry suffered significant damage and Tokyo is almost destroyed. Martial law hasn't been officially declared, but many areas are ruled de facto by JSDF officers who also possess civilian government posts. All communities are either isolated or independent, though nominally controlled by the government. The major cities have been destroyed, mostly due to social unrest caused by the cessation of world trade and imports.
Maybe he speaks Finnish? Or maybe he has access to an English translation of the book?
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Old 01-06-2010, 12:34 AM
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Hello and welcome

Concerning Japan, that might interest you: http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_policy/index.html

I agree with what you are saying here and I just want to add one thing. Indeed, I would consider that Japan will be nuked to some extend (US bases and major cities) and I'm convinced that part of the population will die from hunger. However, something else might add to the bad situation there: natural disasters. I have no real knowledge about that but I would expect that the level of nuclear exchange results in an increase of earthquakes, volcano activites and tsunamis.

About its involvement, Japan will probably not send ground troops outside of its borders but the air force might be engaged as far as South Korea and the navy should be involved in accordance to the treaty with US.

The article V of the treaty with US will allow Japan to act, or so I think, as UN has collapsed. Nevertheless, the article 9 of their constitution will prevent them to go too far. Finally, the government interpretation of it and the extend of popular support will modify this as well. For my part, I even consider that the JGSDF is even involved in South Korea as the collapse of South Korea has come to be seen as a direct threat to the very existence of Japan.

Here are what I think to be the important points stated by the government of Japan. The minimum level necessary for self-defense will change greatly under the Twilight War.

B. Requisites for Exercise of Right of Self-Defense.

The use of armed force for the exercise of the right of self-defense under Article 9 of the Constitution is confined to corresponding to the following three requisites:
(i) there is an imminent and illegitimate act of aggression against Japan;
(ii) there is no appropriate means to repel this aggression other than the use of the right of self-defense; and
(iii) the use of armed strength is confined to the minimum level necessary for repelling.

C. Geographical Scope of Exercise of Right of Self-Defense.

The geographical scope of use of the minimum force necessary to defend Japan as the use of self-defense right is not necessarily confined to the Japanese territorial land, sea and airspace. Generally speaking, however, there is no specific definition of how far this geographic area stretches, since it would vary with each individual situation.

It is, however, not permissible constitutionally to dispatch armed troops to foreign territorial land, sea and airspace for the purpose of using military power, as a so-called overseas deployment of troops, since it generally exceeds the minimum level necessary for self-defense.


By the way, if any one knows Japanese, I'll be interested in having a full translation of that website (Ground Forces, as always, have been lazy). Santa is late for me.

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Old 01-06-2010, 12:54 AM
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Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force?) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral
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Old 01-06-2010, 02:06 AM
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The last ever T2K mini module published in the final issue of Challenge Magazine (issue 77) was titled The Rocket's Red Glare. It was written by George William Herbert and was the winning entry in Challenge Magazine's Asian Scenario Contest. The Rocket's Red Glare involves MILGOV forces being sent to the island of Tanegashima, about 150km south of Kyushu in Japan, to collect and bring back to the US about 300 Japanese and Chinese space industry engineers and their dependents.

Perhaps it would be permissable for me to post here the PC briefing at the beginning of the module? The module also has details about nuke strikes on the steelmaking facilities in and around the Japanese city of Kitakyushu.
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Old 01-06-2010, 02:12 AM
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Welcome to the boards - good thread .

The issue of nuclear hits on Japan has one more dimension for the Soviets in teh T2K timeline imho - wether or not its been mentioned already - Japan is one of the states that think thanks etc consider "capable of going nuclear " within 6 months .

Meaning that given a huge budget by its goverment ,it can amass and deploy resources ,technology and know how to develop and produce a nuclear bomb within 6 months.

For the Sovs not to disable Japan while they have the capacity would be a strategic blunder as far as I see .

That it would happen in the T2K universe is a different matter - the Soviets could just as well threaten Tokyo with obliteration but leave them largely intact to use them as a vassal factory state after its own industry has been crippled by the Yanks.( Thias mentioned as an example out of infinite possibilities).

As for the situation on the ground in T2K JApan I would go with THREADS rather than "unscathed". Japan has reserves od fuel and food for app 6 months as far as I know -enough to weather an increase in tension between China and Taiwan that could block shipping lanes or other major disaster that could disrupt commerce .But a full stop or significant reduction in imports of food would lead to famine and related social unrest etc etc

all imho of course
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Old 01-06-2010, 02:34 AM
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Interesting thread indeed....

Depending on how you or your GM wants to play out The land of the rising sun and the rest of the twillight conflict, they could have increased food/oil storage (spare parts too) in reserve banks and prolly got hold of some nukes too as HQ suggested. Depending on info release from the national government (in regards too the food situation) they could have set up huge LANDCRAB-breeding facilities ( they allready eat bassically anything in asia) and/or other non-conventional food breeding facilites to fight the upcoming famine....

On the other hand they are immensly overcrowded so going back to a more imperialistic feudal and aggresive system where they would even try a sneak attack on their neighbours would also be a possibility ( why loose possible soldiers in famine when you can give them a rifle, a clip, and a frag - put them in a boat and say you are on your own or attack the chineese

PS: I like strange scenarios I know
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Old 01-06-2010, 03:57 AM
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Default yeah

but its not too far fetched to see the Japanese revert to a less peacable constitution and go on a landgrab against China or other areas to get some farmland or other resource.At least not as long as we are talking possibilities in the T2K universe.

And not if the target country is in disarray from the war, or if Japan has taken some hits and the situation could be considered an emergency that would allow leaders to amend or sidestep constitutional law .

In our campaign -Japan has crumbled as a central state and a variety of factions fight eachother for the available resources,mainly driven by hunger and a few mad megalomaniacs that escalate the situation to further their own goals.

One major income source is piracy or in fact conducting large scale raids on coastal areas in neighbouring countries.

a certain General engaged in trading rations for slaves in Japan for a while ,before his blackbirding ways were discovered by MILGOV and he was run out of Osaka with bullets flying everywhere.

Like they were going to share the Japanese market ...


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Interesting thread indeed....

Depending on how you or your GM wants to play out The land of the rising sun and the rest of the twillight conflict, they could have increased food/oil storage (spare parts too) in reserve banks and prolly got hold of some nukes too as HQ suggested. Depending on info release from the national government (in regards too the food situation) they could have set up huge LANDCRAB-breeding facilities ( they allready eat bassically anything in asia) and/or other non-conventional food breeding facilites to fight the upcoming famine....

On the other hand they are immensly overcrowded so going back to a more imperialistic feudal and aggresive system where they would even try a sneak attack on their neighbours would also be a possibility ( why loose possible soldiers in famine when you can give them a rifle, a clip, and a frag - put them in a boat and say you are on your own or attack the chineese

PS: I like strange scenarios I know
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Old 01-06-2010, 07:14 AM
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Welcome John,

I'd definitely go along with the general view that Japan would have been subjected to multiple nuclear attacks, so would be in a pretty bad state overall.

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Old 01-06-2010, 10:42 AM
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Thank you for the kind responses.

So it seems that the general view here also is that Japan would have been subjected to heavy nuclear strikes in T2K and would be in dire straits due to the aforementioned reasons (famine, disease, social unrest and collapse etc.).

Quote:
Japan today is almost certainly overcrowded (just look at their trains), however a few nukes on the major cities should reduce this to a more managable level. Japan in years gone past has managed to feed itself, so provided the population was to drop to say 19th century levels, there shouldn't be too many empty stomachs compared to arible land.
I think you hit the nail on the head there, Legbreaker. From the 18th century through the first half of the 19th century before the Meiji Restoration Japan's population remained steady at about 30 million. So I think this is where Japan's population would ultimately settle at, after the nuclear attack, plagues and famine. Of course, this'd mean that about 95 million or 75% of Japan's 1997 population of 125 million would have perished by 2000 or so, making the US and Canada's death rates of 52 and 45% look absolutely cheerful by comparison And we all now what a lovely place T2K USA is in 2000, Howling Wilderness or no Howling Wilderness.

You're suggestion about the trade routes between Japan and Australia/New Zealand is interesting, and I do think it could be like that, especially to avoid all the Jack Sparrow wannabes. Like you said, though, coal would be an issue, both because of the difficulty in converting ships to coal-powered as well as the possibility that the Russians would have nuked the cities you mentioned because of the coal, which IMHO would be quite likely.

Trade with Thailand would be more difficult and dangerous, I think, because any ships would have to go through the South China Sea, and everyone would know it, including the pirates.

Quote:
Hello John. You've really started posting here with a bang haven't you? Good topic for a thread, I like it. I agree that Japan would be a horrible mess by 2000. The fighting in Korea during the Twilight War was fierce, that alone would have resulted in some sort of spill-over effects for Japan. Japan would definitely have been nuked more than canon says.

Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook?
I own a copy of the Finnish Sourcebook, it's in Finnish but it's ok for me because I'm bilingual in Finnish and English and can translate the text, like I did with the bit about Japan. If people like, I can post translated segments of the book. It's just that I'm not sure how the copyright laws work, and am afraid that I might be breaking some laws if I posted them here.

Quote:
Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force?) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral
I definitely agree that if the Russians were willing to do that to Canada, a non-nuclear ally of the US with a small population, they certainly wouldn't be merciful towards Japan, which is much bigger and more powerful than Canada, and towards which Russia/USSR would have paranoia because of their past history, as well as Japan's capability to build nukes within 6 months, like headquarters stated.

Oh, I can imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be! Those in the know of Japanese popular culture know how much apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic stories figure in manga in anime. Such examples include Akira, Fist of the North Star, Violence Jack and many others. I can just imagine insanely powerful psychics, muscle-bound martial artists with seven scars engraved onto their chests and 3-meter tall jack-knife toting maniacs running around T2K Japan. Such stories also have plenty of mad, powerhungry warlords, despots and dictators, together with their legions of howling madmen preying on the weak. It's a pity that T2K was discontinued so long ago, since I think a Japan-supplement would have definitely sold. I could imagine Tokyo and the Kantou area being a huge Japanese version of Fallout 3's "Capital Wasteland", without the ghouls and the supermutants, of course.

You'all have definitely posted some interesting ideas.
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Old 01-06-2010, 10:47 AM
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I for one would love to see translations of the Finnish sourcebooks, in any capacity...
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Old 01-06-2010, 12:22 PM
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I for one would love to see translations of the Finnish sourcebooks, in any capacity...
wouldlove any of the "lost Finnish texts "
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Old 01-06-2010, 01:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Farson View Post
I own a copy of the Finnish Sourcebook, it's in Finnish but it's ok for me because I'm bilingual in Finnish and English and can translate the text, like I did with the bit about Japan. If people like, I can post translated segments of the book. It's just that I'm not sure how the copyright laws work, and am afraid that I might be breaking some laws if I posted them here.
John it all up to you on what you choose to do. Trooper, our other Finnish member, recently posted the Finnish Nuclear addendum for Europe and I found it very helpful for my European strike map.

IMO
Summaries are fine. Those might lead question and answer threads if you are up to that.

Snippets are of course ok under fair use laws. I would think up to a page or so.

Anything beyond that would probably be best not discussed in a public forum.
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Old 01-06-2010, 02:52 PM
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John it all up to you on what you choose to do. Trooper, our other Finnish member, recently posted the Finnish Nuclear addendum for Europe and I found it very helpful for my European strike map.

IMO
Summaries are fine. Those might lead question and answer threads if you are up to that.

Snippets are of course ok under fair use laws. I would think up to a page or so.

Anything beyond that would probably be best not discussed in a public forum.
I also have the Finnish Nordic countries sourcebook, so I can also post snippets of that here, if people want (though I presume Trooper has already posted the central things of those).

OK, I'll see what I can post. I was thinking of first posting a summary of the Finnish writers' intro where they explain what differences there are to the previous edition and how it differs from the American version. It's not something little either, for the Finnish book has Russia led by Vladimir Zhirinovski go to war against China in Jan. 1996! Though China actually fires the first shot after a crapload of provocations, but the enemy is Russia, not the USSR. The POD is after the anti-Yeltsin coup attempt of Oct. 3rd 1993, wherein Yeltsin is forced to rely on the army more. China becomes more unstable, too.

I was also thinking of posting translated snippets about the situation in various parts of the world in case it differs from the US version (I've never owned the US version, so I don't know).

Of course the book also contains technical details like character creation, game master, time & travel, battle rules and meeting rules, but those might be redundant. Not to mention that posting all of those would consume a hell of a lot of time and, IMHO, would come dangerously close to breaking those laws!

How does this sound (of course I'd be posting them in their own threads)?
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Old 01-06-2010, 03:01 PM
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Trooper only posted the Nuclear list so anything you post will be helpful. I know that whatever work you do will be appreciated by many people here. Much thanks in advance from all of us.
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Old 01-06-2010, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Webstral View Post
Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force?) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral
Oh, and Webstral, about the US retaliation for Japan, I think that retaliation might be directed towards Vietnam, especially if the OTL normalisation of relations of 1995 is butterflied away. I don't know what sort of nuclear targets the US had in Vietnam after 1975, but I think if World War III came to pass, that country wouldn't have been spared. The Chinese alone would have lobbed a few nukes at it, I think. After all, it was a Soviet rather than a Chinese ally, and it was militarily the most powerful country in mainland SE-Asia. I presume also, though it'd never be admitted in public, that there might also be an element of revenge for the Vietnam War. With the US facing imminent nuclear destruction, the powers-that-be might decide that "if we're going down, we're certainly not gonna let those damned Vietnamese get away with it!"
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Old 01-06-2010, 03:06 PM
John Farson John Farson is offline
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Trooper only posted the Nuclear list so anything you post will be helpful. I know that whatever work you do will be appreciated by many people here. Much thanks in advance from all of us.
Thanks. I'll see what I can do.
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Old 01-06-2010, 04:50 PM
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With the US facing imminent nuclear destruction, the powers-that-be might decide that "if we're going down, we're certainly not gonna let those damned Vietnamese get away with it!"
Heck yeah, there would be some payback!

Webstral
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Old 01-06-2010, 05:02 PM
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Perhaps it would be permissable for me to post here the PC briefing at the beginning of the module? The module also has details about nuke strikes on the steelmaking facilities in and around the Japanese city of Kitakyushu.
Actually the adventure was posted at rpghost and I was able to pull it as part of my archive file (2.15 MB).

Japan in the Twilight War and After
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Old 01-06-2010, 05:37 PM
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Old 01-06-2010, 06:45 PM
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Here are some of points to keep in mind when designing a Japanese campaign

1) In theory, Japan's rearmament is thoroughly prohibited by Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which not only states, "The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes", but also declares, "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained." In practice, however, the Diet (or Parliament), which Article 41 of the Constitution defines as "the highest organ of the state power", established the Self-Defense Forces in 1954.

2) Due to such a constitutional tension concerning the Forces' status, any attempt at enhancing the Forces' capabilities and budget tends to be politically controversial. Thus the JSDF has very limited capabilities to operate overseas, lacks long range offensive capabilities such as long-range surface-to-surface missiles, aerial refueling, marines, amphibious units, or large caches of ammunitions.

3) The Rules of Engagement are strictly defined by the Self-Defence Forces Act 1954.

4) The total strength of the three branches of the SDF was 246,400 in 1992. In addition, the SDF maintained a total of 48,400 reservists attached to the three services. Even when Japan's active and reserve components are combined, however, the country maintains a lower ratio of military personnel to its population than does any member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Of the major Asian nations, only India and Indonesia keep a lower ratio of personnel in arms.

5) The SDF is an all-volunteer force, however in the face of some continued post-World War II public apathy or antipathy toward the armed services, the SDF has difficulties in recruiting personnel. The SDF has to compete for qualified personnel with well-paying industries, and most enlistees are "persuaded" volunteers who sign up after solicitation from recruiters. Predominantly rural prefectures supply military enlistees far beyond the proportions of their populations. In areas such as southern Kyūshū and Hokkaidō, where employment opportunities are limited, recruiters are welcomed and supported by the citizens. In contrast, little success or cooperation is encountered in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka.

6) Conscription per se is not forbidden by law, but many citizens consider Article 18 of the constitution, which prohibits involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime, as a legal prohibition of any form of conscription. Even in the absence of so strict an interpretation, however, a military draft appears politically impossible.

7) All SDF personnel are technically civilians: those in uniform are classified as special civil servants and are subordinate to the ordinary civil servants who run the Ministry of Defense. There are no military secrets, military laws, or offenses committed by military personnel; whether on-base or off-base, on-duty or off-duty, of a military or non-military nature, are all adjudicated under normal procedures by civil courts in appropriate jurisdictions.

8) Because the forces are all volunteer and legally civilian, members can resign at any time, and retention is a problem. Many enlistees are lured away by the prospects of highly paying civilian jobs, and Defense Agency officials complain of private industries looting their personnel.
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Old 01-06-2010, 07:48 PM
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Here are some of points to keep in mind when designing a Japanese campaign

1) In theory, Japan's rearmament is thoroughly prohibited by Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which not only states, "The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes", but also declares, "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained." In practice, however, the Diet (or Parliament), which Article 41 of the Constitution defines as "the highest organ of the state power", established the Self-Defense Forces in 1954.

2) Due to such a constitutional tension concerning the Forces' status, any attempt at enhancing the Forces' capabilities and budget tends to be politically controversial. Thus the JSDF has very limited capabilities to operate overseas, lacks long range offensive capabilities such as long-range surface-to-surface missiles, aerial refueling, marines, amphibious units, or large caches of ammunitions.

3) The Rules of Engagement are strictly defined by the Self-Defence Forces Act 1954.

4) The total strength of the three branches of the SDF was 246,400 in 1992. In addition, the SDF maintained a total of 48,400 reservists attached to the three services. Even when Japan's active and reserve components are combined, however, the country maintains a lower ratio of military personnel to its population than does any member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Of the major Asian nations, only India and Indonesia keep a lower ratio of personnel in arms.

5) The SDF is an all-volunteer force, however in the face of some continued post-World War II public apathy or antipathy toward the armed services, the SDF has difficulties in recruiting personnel. The SDF has to compete for qualified personnel with well-paying industries, and most enlistees are "persuaded" volunteers who sign up after solicitation from recruiters. Predominantly rural prefectures supply military enlistees far beyond the proportions of their populations. In areas such as southern Kyūshū and Hokkaidō, where employment opportunities are limited, recruiters are welcomed and supported by the citizens. In contrast, little success or cooperation is encountered in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka.

6) Conscription per se is not forbidden by law, but many citizens consider Article 18 of the constitution, which prohibits involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime, as a legal prohibition of any form of conscription. Even in the absence of so strict an interpretation, however, a military draft appears politically impossible.

7) All SDF personnel are technically civilians: those in uniform are classified as special civil servants and are subordinate to the ordinary civil servants who run the Ministry of Defense. There are no military secrets, military laws, or offenses committed by military personnel; whether on-base or off-base, on-duty or off-duty, of a military or non-military nature, are all adjudicated under normal procedures by civil courts in appropriate jurisdictions.

8) Because the forces are all volunteer and legally civilian, members can resign at any time, and retention is a problem. Many enlistees are lured away by the prospects of highly paying civilian jobs, and Defense Agency officials complain of private industries looting their personnel.
This is very good information. Thanks for getting this out.

Webstral
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Old 01-06-2010, 10:04 PM
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Its true that Japan post-1945 has been a peaceful nation. However despite its constitution many factors would make it a prime target for a Soviet nuclear and conventional attack.

Firstly Japan is a military ally of the United States, in fact its military relationship with America could be said to be on a par with Britain if you exclude nuclear technology. Japanese defense policy has been based on maintaining the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with the United States, under which Japan assumed responsibility for its own internal security and the United States agreed to join in Japan's defense in the event that Japan or its territories were attacked.

Secondly Japan has a large and sophisticated defence industry. Japan builds most of its own vehicles, aircraft and ships, and they are to large degree Japanese designed. Of the defence equipment it does import, America is by far the biggest source. Japan has the industrial base to license build any imported weapon from the F-15 to artillery guns, and in fact the current Japanese F-2 fighter is basically a heavily upgraded F-16C.

Thirdly Japan is a major industrial power and by far the most technologically advanced country in Asia. At the time of the Twilight War Japan was second only to the United States and Soviet Union in manufacturing and industrial production across a whole range of industries, and was a world leader in automobiles, metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electronics. It also had the largest ship building industry in the world and a highly capable aerospace sector. It was also second only to the United States and the Soviet Union in electricity production, and its nuclear power industry was as big as the Soviet Union in output.

Fourthly Japan's is a major military power in its own right. It has one of the largest and best equipped navies in Asia, and its air force is the best air defence force in Asia, although for political reasons its lags in attack capabilities. The Japanese Ground Self Defence Force had 13 Divisions (1 Armoured, 12 Infantry) and 4 Independent Brigades (1 Airborne, 1 Artillery, 2 Mixed), and was at least as well equipped as any Asian rival.

Fifthly it is no secret that Japan has the capability to build nuclear weapons if it wanted. Japan started looking into nuclear weapons development following China's successfull atom-bomb test in 1964, and one of the main reasons why China's nuclear arsenal hasn't expanded much over the past few decades is probably due to fear of provoking a regional nuclear arms race with Japan, and also why there is a lot of fuss in Asia about North Korean missile tests and nuclear development. Japan also has its own successfull space program which uses Japanese designed rockets to launch satellites into orbit. The M-3S-II which was first launched in 1985 is considered to be capable of a surface-to-surface range of 4,000 km with a 500 kg payload. The newer M-V rocket which started devlopment in 1989 and was first launched in 1997 is more than twice the weight of the M-3S-II. It is capable of placing an 1,800 kg cargo into low earth orbit or injecting a 300-400-kg payload into space for planetary surveys, and is considered capable of intercontinental ranges if converted into a ballistic missile. Both the M-3S-II and M-V have been compared with American ICBMs, and if converted to ballistic missiles the M-V would likely give Japan an ICBM roughly equivalent to the MX Peacekeeper, although it would be not easy for Japan to convert to military applications for anumber of reasons.

Finally by looking at the deployments of US forces in Japan it is easy to see why Japan would be targeted by Soviet nuclear forces.

Current and recent US military forces in Japan

US Army Japan/I Corp (Forward) (Camp Zama, Kanagawa Prefecture)
• 1st Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group (Okinawa)
• 1st Battalion, 1st Air Defence Artillery Regiment (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
• 78th Aviation Battalion
• 35th Combat Support Battalion
• 88th Military Police Detachment
• 441st Military Intelligence Battalion
• 83rd Ordinance Battalion (Kure, with detachments at Hiro, Kawakami, Chibana)
9th Mission Support Command (Camp Zama, Kanagawa Prefecture)
• 78th Signal Battalion
• 836th Transportation Battalion (Yokohama)
10th Area Support Group (Torri Station, Okinawa)
• 2nd Joint Special Operations Aviation Component
• 58th Signal Battalion (Fort Buckner, Okinawa)
• 505th Quartermaster Battalion
• 835th Transportation Battalion (Naha Point, Okinawa)

* Recent Army deployments to Japan

300th Area Support Group
429th Quartermaster Battalion


US Air Force
Fifth Air Force (Yokota AB, Tokyo)
18th Wing (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
• 18th Operations Support Squadron
• 44th Fighter Squadron (F-15C/D)
• 67th Fighter Squadron (F-15C/D)
• 909th Air Refueling Squadron (KC-135R)
• 961st Airborne Air Control Squadron (E-3B/C)
• 33d Rescue Squadron (HH-60G)
35th Fighter Wing (Misawa AB, Aomori Prefecture)
• 35th Operations Support Squadron
• 13th Fighter Squadron (F-16CJ/DJ)
• 14th Fighter Squadron (F-16CJ/DJ)
• 610th Air Control Flight
374th Airlift Wing (Yokota AB, Tokyo)
• 374th Operations Support Squadron
• 36th Airlift Squadron (C-130H)
• 459th Airlift Squadron (UH-1N, C-12)
Detachment, 94th Fighter Squadron (Kadena AB, Okinawa) (F-22)

* Recent Air Force deployments to Japan

12th Fighter Squadron (Kadena AB, Okinawa) (F-15C/D)


US Marines
III Marine Expeditionary Force (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
• 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit
• 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade
3rd Marine Division (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
• 3rd Marine Regiment
• 4th Marine Regiment
• 12th Marine Regiment (Camp Hansen, Okinawa)
3rd Marine Logistics Group (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
1st Marine Air Wing (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
Marine Air Group 12 (Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture) (F-18)
Marine Air Group 36 (Futenma, Okinawa) (CH-46, CH-53, KC-130R)
Marine Air Control Group 18 (Futenma, Okinawa)

US Navy
7th Fleet (Yokosuka)
Submarine Group 7 (Yokosuka)
Expeditionary Strike group 7 (Okinawa)
• Amphibious Squadron 11 (Sasebo)
• Mine Countermeasure Division 11 (Sasebo)
HSL-14 (NAS Atsugi) (SH-60)
CVN 63 George Washington
• Carrier Air Wing 5
• George Washington Strike Group

* Recent Navy deployments to Japan

CV 63 Kitty Hawk
CV 41 Midway
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Old 01-06-2010, 11:23 PM
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I think you're missing some important points there RN7...

Japan is resource poor. It imports virtually all raw materials so that it can produce the high tech equipment it does. Once the war turns nuclear, perhaps even before, the flow of raw materials will be disrupted.

It's worth looking at CA's post above for reasons why Japan cannot be a significant threat to it's neighbours. Given a decade or so and a radical shift in public opinion, this may change, but it's not likely.

Yes Japan probably can produce nukes. Yes, it has the capability of delivering a few of them, but it doesn't have the ability to deliver more than one or two at a time as it's space facilities aren't set up for it (they are after all primarily civilian in nature and design). It wouldn't take more than a few cruise missiles or decent airstrike to effectively destroy that capability.

And finally, the list of units you've posted is PRE war. Very few of the ground units, and virtually none of the naval units will be there circa 1997-98 when the nukes are fired. There is a possibility that the air units will be present, at least the rear area services, but there's also a strong posibility that many of these will have been shifted to other theatres.

I believe Japan is still nukeworthy, however less than one may immediately think. Major industrial centres are likely to take the brunt of the attack and possibly military targets also if there is strong intel significant forces remain in barracks. The cities themselves are unlikely to have been targeted directly, however as industry relies on population, the destruction of the cities is still almost certain.
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Old 01-07-2010, 12:01 AM
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I think you're missing some important points there RN7...
Quote:
Japan is resource poor. It imports virtually all raw materials so that it can produce the high tech equipment it does. Once the war turns nuclear, perhaps even before, the flow of raw materials will be disrupted.
Much of Europe is also resource poor, including France. In fact Japan's lack of resources such as oil, and small coal and metal reserves is very similar to France. Both countries also have nuclear power industries second only to America.

Quote:
It's worth looking at CA's post above for reasons why Japan cannot be a significant threat to it's neighbours. Given a decade or so and a radical shift in public opinion, this may change, but it's not likely.
Do you realy think that Japan's self expressed pacifism or apathy towards the military is going to stop the Soviets launching nuclear missiles at them during an all out war with America and NATO?

Quote:
Yes Japan probably can produce nukes. Yes, it has the capability of delivering a few of them, but it doesn't have the ability to deliver more than one or two at a time as it's space facilities aren't set up for it (they are after all primarily civilian in nature and design).
Yes it does have the ability to build nuclear weapons (mainly low yield plutonium derived ones), and no it doesn't have the capability to deliver nuclear weapons, but if it felt its national security was in danger by an Asian rival such as China or North Korea it could instigate a programme of upgrading its current rocket technology to military application.

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It wouldn't take more than a few cruise missiles or decent airstrike to effectively destroy that capability.
Well if the Soviets respected Japanese neutrality why would they be using cruise missiles or airstrikes against Japan. And if you take out the space facilities your probably going to have to go after the nuclear programme as well and Japan's nuclear power stations.

Quote:
And finally, the list of units you've posted is PRE war. Very few of the ground units, and virtually none of the naval units will be there circa 1997-98 when the nukes are fired. There is a possibility that the air units will be present, at least the rear area services, but there's also a strong posibility that many of these will have been shifted to other theatres.
Actually the list is 2009, but they were in Japan during the 90's. And yes some of the air, marine and naval units would have gone to Korea and the Middle East, but the logistical importance of US bases would remain for all US forces in the Pacific region. However many forces, particularly units designated to the air defence of Japan are there specifically to defend Japan at the request of the Japanese government.

Quote:
I believe Japan is still nukeworthy, however less than one may immediately think. Major industrial centres are likely to take the brunt of the attack and possibly military targets also if there is strong intel significant forces remain in barracks. The cities themselves are unlikely to have been targeted directly, however as industry relies on population, the destruction of the cities is still almost certain.
Well I don't understand your logic. On one hand your saying the Japanese constitution and general Japanese pacifism and apathy towards the military would deter a Soviet attack, yet on the other hand your saying that Japanese industrial centres, military targets and cities would still be attacked.
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