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I was listening to GEN (Ret) Wesley Clark, a former commander of NATO, on CNN the other day. (Yes, I know what some of you think of CNN; let's not go into that right now.) He said that while the troops and equipment are enough to make a wreck of Ukraine right now, to properly subjugate Ukraine, Russia would need on the order of 800,000 troops with attendant armor and vehicle to move the supply chain, and enough aircraft to gain air superiority over Ukraine.
The Russians don't have this right now. Mass conscription would be necessary, and the first task of the new troops would be to get currently POS vehicles running. While training for combat. However, the invasion of Ukraine is going badly for the Russians. Even Russian commanders (secretly) acknowledge that they are overwhelmed at how badly the campaign is going. The war is also very unpopular in Russia herself, and conscription is going to go over like a lead balloon. You'll need loyal troops to provide armed guards over the conscripts to make sure they don't desert, and in general start a reign of terror over the conscripts. You're also going to have a situation like in the 1960s-70s in the US, where conscripts "burn their draft cards" and generally don't show up when they are conscripted. They'll join the antiwar effort instead. Where they will be arrested, and then conscripted. There will be press gangs roaming Russia. It's going to be a mess.
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War is the absence of reason. But then, life often demands unreasonable responses. - Lucian Soulban, Warhammer 40000 series, Necromunda Book 6, Fleshworks Entirely too much T2K stuff here: www.pmulcahy.com |
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How might the war end? Five scenarios (from the BBC)
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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As I've stated in other threads, your information on this is out of date.
There is still conscription, but it is now on a one year term (although many conscripts enter with at least some training in militarily useful experience already, due to "patriotic training" that has no real Western equivalent). Since 2016, conscripts have the option to instead sign on immediately to a two (maybe three?) year volunteer contract, which offers better pay and preferential treatment. At least on paper, most of these conscripts serve in support roles, while combat roles are comprised primarily of voluntary contract soldiers. In any case, conscripts make up only about a third of manpower. However, the inequalities in pay, status, and authority between contract and conscript soldiers has been a noted point of friction and low morale even within any given unit, and it's likely we're seeing that here. (A specific case: Conscripts are not legally allowed to serve outside of Russia. In this particular case, many conscripts had their status nonvoluntarily changed to contract prior to the invasion in order to get around this law -- certainly this is probably another sore point for morale.) |
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Blinken has green-lit the transfer of Polish fighters to Ukraine, which suggests we have reassured them of back-stopping thier loss. This does not mean any such transfer is iminent, but surely closer than it was a week ago on initial reports.
An unknown number of foriegn volunteers have entered Ukraine, which has lifted visa requirements. Ukraine suggests volunteers have fatigues and cold-weather gear. Putin is reported to be deploying 1,000 mercenaries to Ukraine, but those reports are unconfirmed. Big questions. Would Putin leverage captured foriegn fighters from NATO member nations to expand the war? Will NATO allow Ukrainian fighter jets to rearm amd refuel at bases outside Ukraine? Both scenarios seem unlikely right now, but things may be much more desperate by next week. |
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As an aside, Russia has already stated that foreign fighters in Ukraine would be treated as criminals and not afforded protections due to combatants, so these folks better plan on taking that into account. |
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What I'm wondering right now is what impact the refugee crisis (1.5m and counting) is going to have on EU/NATO calculus, both short and long term. Could a continuing flood of Ukrainian DPs force NATO to intervene militarily? It's unlikely, but what could happen if refugee support systems start to buckle? In the long term, if/when Russia conquers Ukraine, millions of Ukrainian refugees residing in multiple countries right next door could help sustain a very lengthy insurgency. This could cause all sorts of political and diplomatic issues between Russia and the host countries which could, again, lead to an expansion of the war. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module Last edited by Raellus; 03-06-2022 at 12:49 PM. |
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Desperate Times...
Video circulating online today shows civilian vehicles- buses, cargo and tanker trucks, even sedans- spray-painted with Z recognition markings on Russian flatbed train cars in transit to Ukraine.
Several years ago, in the In Defense of the Red Army thread, someone pointed out that one of the Cold War Soviet army's most significant but little publicized weaknesses was its relative paucity of transport vehicles. Apparently, the post-1945 Soviet military-industrial complex learned nothing from the important role that Lend-Lease materiel played in defeating the German ground forces during WW2, and the Russian military has since inherited that gap in logistical thinking. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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I absolutely agree on the idea of the Russian army - today and historically - sucking as an army of occupation. It's a vastly different job and Ukraine is a country of over 40 million people, nearly all of them, as of now, hostile to Russia. However, comparing Russia's expenditures on the armed forces with that of Western nations is a folly. Yes, their spending was only USD 43.2 billion in 2020, down from USD 46.4 billion in 2019. However, Russia buys most of it's equipment internally and has comparatively very low costs for personnel. Also, in Ruble, the spending actually rose from 3 trillion to 3.09 trillion between 2019 and 2020, and then to 3.2 trillion in 2021. This means, Russia can do much more with its funds than e. g. Germany, which spent the comparable sum of €46.93 billion in 2021. All in all, however, the allies of NATO outspend Russia by far, of course. This doesn't mean, though, Russia cannot create a bit of a mixed pickle on NATO's Eastern flank for some time.
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Liber et infractus |
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Plot Twist!
Poland looks to be exchanging its MiG-29s with the US, for American-built replacement fighters. This opens the door for the US to transfer said ex-Polish MiGs to Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ead-to-ukraine It's a bit of a pass-the-buck move by Poland, but given their geo-political and military position in Europe, I can respect it. Is this a red line for Putin? We shall see. -
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Author of Twilight 2000 adventure modules, Rook's Gambit and The Poisoned Chalice, the campaign sourcebook, Korean Peninsula, the gear-book, Baltic Boats, and the co-author of Tara Romaneasca, a campaign sourcebook for Romania, all available for purchase on DriveThruRPG: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...--Rooks-Gambit https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...ula-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...nia-Sourcebook https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product...liate_id=61048 https://preview.drivethrurpg.com/en/...-waters-module |
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Farmers Having a "Field [Artillery] Day"
This is just so Twilight2000 I just had to show it. When the conscript Russians run out of fuel, they simply abandon their AFVs and just run off. Only in Twilight2000 would I have imagined seeing things like this...
https://youtu.be/KOo3U32-J_g Swag. |
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Probably not going to happen Pentagon response to Poland's proposal on jets: "We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.” -Pentagon spokesman John Kirby |
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Biden is simply dragging his feet. We have 600+ F16s in inventory. We can give Poland 28 of them. Biden did finally ban imports of Russian oil today. We are supposedly being told to expect $7 per gallon by next month since the current administration won't lift their ban on drilling in the national forests. |
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Oil companies in the US already under utilize their existing leases for drilling on federal land. More leases aren't going to reduce the price at the pump for gasoline. Opening federal land to drilling (or any land) requires the attendant infrastructure to store and move that oil. So even if oil companies got a bunch of new federal drilling leases tomorrow they wouldn't get significant amounts of oil into the market for years. |
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IF all of that is true, it gives a whole new meaning to the term "canon fodder." |
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Poland says they are ready to send the 28, Mig-29's to a U.S. base in Germany.
There are reports that Russian has lost a ship. There are reports that a second Russian General has been KIA. |
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That Russian ship was sunk off of Crimea. Open Source Intelligence posted a Google satellite photo of it.
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