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Egyptian civil war
I see the potential for a devestating civil war in Egypt .Should the central gov loose influence over remote areas or start to wobble ( any further ) , the gap between the Islamists ,the poor rural population and the mainly urban or well off citizenry that support the US backed regime would turn into sides in an armed conflict .
This , in addition to possible damage to the Aswan dam or nuclear attacks on major metropolitan areas will leave Egypt in disarray and totally destabilized. Egypt and Israel are not "friends" today - although Egypt enjoy better relations with israel than many arab nations. Israel would have app 150 -200 nuclear warheads by 1995 . ( This is not guesswork , but documented by amongst others Morderchai Vanunu , former tech in their weapons program) . It seem sclear that any sudden moves by Israels neighbours could unleash Israeli preemptive strikes that would destroy major cities and dismantle central control there.Standing firm against Israeli demands would be a dangerous course of action for Syria,Egypt,Iran etc after the major powers have begun deploying nukes or entered into massive conventional war.Without the restraint of the international community , it would seem unlikely that Israel would not take any or all measures deemed necessary to ensure its safety . The nukes they have may well have been produced as a deterrent to their hostile,more populous neighbours.But in the face of all out war they would be used .Sparingly , but still .India and Pakistan would probably have lowered the bar on popping nukes in the T2K scenario too . Quote:
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africa, countries, egypt, israel, middle east |
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