YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Raellus]

I was just trying to make a case for the U.S.A. using conventional means to temporarily cripple Mexico's oil industry. I envision great American reluctance to use nukes vs. their southern neighbor, primarily because predominant weather patterns pretty much guarantee that much of the fallout will cross the border and further contaminate the U.S. If the Soviets do the nuking, it makes a bit more sense.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I was just trying to make a case for the U.S.A. using conventional means to temporarily cripple Mexico's oil industry. I envision great American reluctance to use nukes vs. their southern neighbor, primarily because predominant weather patterns pretty much guarantee that much of the fallout will cross the border and further contaminate the U.S. If the Soviets do the nuking, it makes a bit more sense.

Yeah it never made sense to me.

If I was the USSR, as far as nuking refineries, after European and Middle East Neutrals, Mexico would be first on my list. But if the Soviets nuked Mexico why would they work with Division Cuba.

This has bothered me for over 30 years now.

[Jason Weiser]

Ok,
I am one of those who thinks the Mexican invasion makes little sense, but if you want to use it..here is a way to do it that is 1.0 compatible?

Mexico in 1995 was a nation on the brink. One way led to a moderately successful future with a moderate-left PRI government that had done much to roll back some of the more costly social programs and diversify the economy, as well as make some very public arrests of both corrupt officials and some Narcotrafficantes.

But Mexico's other way led to ruin, as her economy was still for the most part, based on the petrochemical riches she drew for the main basis of her economy. She was a victim of world-wide commodity prices, and in early 1996, with OPEC deciding it would not institute any price caps for oil production that year (this was a backhanded attempt to help China hold off the Soviets, and contributed to a worldwide drop in oil prices), Mexico's economy simply cratered. The price of tortillas, which was always a guide to how healthy the Mexican economy was, tripled in a space of 6 months, with other staples rising accordingly, as imports paid for by increasingly depressed Pesos became harder to come by (the war expanding to a world war in November made this even harder, as most of Mexico's trading partners were now belligerents). By January 1997, Mexico was on the verge of revolution.

On the night of February 19th, 1997, a strange mixture of Marxist PPS politicians, military officers, and students (who provided most of the muscle) overthrew the PRI government and instituted a "Government of National Salvation." While the government instituted a number of Marxist policies, not the least of which was a doubling down of government subsidization of the economy it could not afford (and increasing the inflation of the Peso to near worthlessness), it studiously avoided any outward alliance with the Soviet Union and instead, formed a quiet alliance with neutral Cuba, bringing in Cuban medical and technical teams in an effort to help stave off the oncoming economic ruin. This allowed Mexico to embrace Marxism, while avoiding being in the crosshairs of the United States, at least, until 1998.

Most of the Mexican oil industry was hit by Soviet nuclear weapons for two reasons, first was the fear the US might seize the facilities for themselves (the US had no such means left to do so, but the Soviets didn't believe that) and two, as a backhanded way of punishing Mexico for not joining the "internationalist cause". (To be fair, the PPS at the time were more euro-communist in outlook, than doctrinaire Marxist-Leninist, and some were even more in favor of the Chinese Communists, and as such detested the Soviets for their actions in China).

Mexico, barely under control domestically with the strains of an economy held together with baling wire and good intentions, snapped under the strain. 8 revolutions took place before a radical faction of the PPS (which was more nationalistic to the point of chauvinistic in it's views) took control. Fearing they would be the victims of a 9th revolution, and looking for a means to unify the country, they did what shaky radical regimes have done throughout history, they looked for a short, victorious war. And the actions of the United States, vis a vis Mexican refugees, gave them the perfect excuse. And with the arrival of Division Cuba, it seemed the Mexicans could not lose...at least that's what the politicians in Mexico City thought at the time.

[Raellus]

So, I noticed something curious, and more than a little illogical, but it gave me an epiphany.

Canon (Howling Wilderness AND the BYOB, v.2.2) has oil refineries in El Paso hit by a .25MT nuclear warhead. AFAIK, no date for the strike is given, but one assumes it took place sometime in 1997.

The Mexicans invade the U.S.A. in 1998.

Canon has the School Brigade located at Ft. Bliss, in El Paso, when the invasion begins.

Why would the SB stay in El Paso after it had been hit by a nuclear warhead? Ft. Bliss is only about 3 miles from the only refineries in El Paso. Using NUKEMAP, Ft. Bliss would be within the thermal radiation radius of a 25MT device detonating on the refinery. It doesn't make much sense, unless...

What if the refineries in El Paso were the target, but ground zero was actually in Ciudad Juarez, just on the other side of the border? Some Soviet nukes were notoriously inaccurate. CJ is very close to El Paso- the two cities basically one contiguous city straddling the border. But, a strike in S. Ciudad Juarez would be far enough away that Ft. Bliss wouldn't be damaged.

So, Mexican refugees flood across the border and the U.S., fearful of Soviet infiltrators among the throngs, takes a heavy hand. Mexico, blaming the U.S. for the nuclear destruction of part of Ciudad Juarez (even knowing that the Soviets were responsible- the reasoning would be, "if you weren't standing so close to me, I might not have been shot"), and alarmed at the harsh treatment of its citizens crossing the border, Mexico prepares to invade the U.S.A.

It ain't perfect, but it makes sense to me. Thoughts?

[Olefin]

The Soviets didnt even have a 25MT warhead - and why would you use a 25MT warhead to take out just a refinery - plus I think the use of such big warheads would have been way beyond what was considered a limited strike - a 25 MT warhead would have destroyed most of the city and the base

I am thinking we are looking more at a 250kt weapon and not 25MT - that could explain the survival of the base- along with the nuke detonating to the south of the refinery where it still takes it out but not the base along with it

[.45cultist]

I grafted the T2013 section here, The U.S. invading for Mexico's Industry and oil makes more sense. Even Division Cuba couldn't elevate a third tier internal defense structured army. I even threw in covert support from China.

[swaghauler]

As is typical for me, I completely changed the US-Mexican relationship by making Mexico become a Narco-Puppet state in 1995. The Cartels took over the country (through rigged elections) and then began buying loads of Russian tech in exchange for drug money (Russia DESPERATELY needed hard currency and the Cartels need weapons) to keep US backed rebels at bay. Russia then sends "Division Cuba" to train the Cartel's "Mexican Army" in order to stand up to the US. After war breaks out, the US takes control of several Mexican oil platforms, triggering the Second US-Mexican War. As things begin to deteriorate, the US nukes Mexico to keep her resources out of her Russian "benefactor's" hands. This how I justify the war.

[The Dark]

Originally Posted by .45cultist

I grafted the T2013 section here, The U.S. invading for Mexico's Industry and oil makes more sense. Even Division Cuba couldn't elevate a third tier internal defense structured army. I even threw in covert support from China.

Invading for Mexico's oil would have problems. In the 90s, half of their production came from the Cantarell field in the Gulf of Mexico off Campeche (the southwestern part of the Yucatan). The next most important field is the Golden Lane, across the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan. The largest reserves are in Chicontepec, but they're technically unfeasible to exploit (even now). That's near Mexico City. The oil fields are pretty much all in the south of Mexico, either on land or in the coastal waters, so an invasion from the north will have to drive through the entire country to reach the fields.

Industry I know less about, other than that (in our timeline) it spiked from the mid-90s (when American demand increased) until around 2000 (when China undercut Mexican labor costs). I don't know if the same spike would have happened in the T2K timeline.

[mpipes]

Originally Posted by Olefin

The Soviets didnt even have a 25MT warhead - and why would you use a 25MT warhead to take out just a refinery - plus I think the use of such big warheads would have been way beyond what was considered a limited strike - a 25 MT warhead would have destroyed most of the city and the base

I am thinking we are looking more at a 250kt weapon and not 25MT - that could explain the survival of the base- along with the nuke detonating to the south of the refinery where it still takes it out but not the base along with it

The SS-18 Mod3 carried a single 25Mt RV. We believed it was intended for NORAD HQ at Cheyenne Mountain and other super hardened sites.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by mpipes

The SS-18 Mod3 carried a single 25Mt RV. We believed it was intended for NORAD HQ at Cheyenne Mountain and other super hardened sites.

actually I was right - its a .25MT not a 25MT - Raellus had both in his post

but he is right about where it had to hit - the only way that Fort Bliss is spared is if the warhead goes off over Ciudad Juarez and misses to the south, still taking out the refinery with the thermal pulse but leaving Fort Bliss intact