Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook: the timeline

[John Farson]

The timeline follows OTL up until the Duma's (parliament) mutiny against Yeltsin in October 1993, after which events diverge. I start from after the failed mutiny.

1993
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President Yeltsin arranges for new Duma elections to be held in December, having first railroaded a new constitution and an expansion in presidential powers in November. The elections turn out to be a pyrrhic victory for Yeltsin. Although Yeltsin stays in power and gets a Duma that is more or less favourable toward his policies, he is forced to compromise with the Russian military in exchange for their support and admit several military personnel into high-ranking positions.

At the end of the year there is open talk in China for the first time about the possibility of disintegration and civil war once Deng Xiaoping, the de facto leader of China, has passed on. As the central government weakens the wide economic autonomy granted to the provinces may get out of hand. Because of this, political and economic experts suggest increasing the power of the National People's Congress and moving to a US-type federal system. A senile Deng promptly strikes these reform proposals down.

As UN peacekeeping forces prove powerless to prevent the senseless slaughter in the former Yugoslavia, the UN expands its mandate to include "peace enforcement". Finland refuses to send actual combat troops, but the "traditional" UN battalion is readied for transfer to the former Yugoslavia. Regardless of official Finnish policy, in the future these men and women will be forced to fight for their very lives...

[John Farson]

1994
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On 19 March, the second anniversary of the declaration of Tatarstan's autonomy, fierce riots break out between local Tatars and Cossacks representing the Russian minority, resulting in a number of deaths. OMON troops use force to pacify the situation, but rioting spreads to the rest of Russia's Tatar population. This in turn leads to Cossack organisations going on a rampage, first in the Russian Federation before spreading to the Cossacks in CIS member states. All of this worsens relations in Central Asia between ethnic Russians and Muslims, which were tense to begin with.

The Itar-Tass news agency accuses both Iran and Iraq of supplying arms to guerrilla groups operating in CIS states in Central Asia and the Caucasus and of provoking the local Muslim population against ethnic Russians. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan intensifies into open warfare again, leading Russia to send in the 104th Guards Air Assault Division and the 11th Attack Helicopter Regiment on 23 June to "separate the warring parties," as allowed by the CIS security treaty. In practice, the Russian forces defend the Christian Armenians against the Muslim Azeri and seek to occupy the disputed region. Russian veterans soon find that they are fighting a war that is very similar to the one they fought in Afghanistan a decade earlier.

In July Russia increases its military detachment multifold in the Sary Shagan missile testing range in Kazakhstan in order to protect it from crossfire between Islamic insurgents and Kazakh government forces. In the Duma the nationalist opposition, which has been quietly amassing power, demands greater Russian intervention in the domestic unrest of CIS states in order to protect the local Russian minorities. With the Russian economy finally showing tentative signs of recovery, however, Pres. Yeltsin is reluctant to start large-scale military operations. This in turn raises the ire of certain parties in the Russian military leadership.
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More to follow!

[John Farson]

1994 (continued)
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In the Dniester region the Moldovan Independence Day celebrations on 27 August first turn into rioting between Romanian-related Moldovans and Turkish-related Gagauz, then into a bloodbath as local Cossacks begin to "restore order" with military issued weapons. Both Moldova and Romania accuse Russian intelligence of supporting and arming the Cossacks. Yeltsin denies the accusations as "rubbish" and reminds people that Russia has enough issues of its own without interfering in the domestic affairs of other CIS states. In practice, by saying this he washes his hands off of affairs related to Russian minorities in CIS countries, which does not endear him to Russian nationalists.

Researchers in France and the USA begin testing a vaccine which would appear to be effective against HIV. The scientists quickly agree to demands of expediting the test programme, and US health officials immediately move from animal testing to largescale human experiments. It will take years, however, before pharmaceutical companies can update their production lines to sufficiently deal with the massive AIDS epidemic in the Third World. Health care in Central Africa in particular is on the verge of total collapse as a surge in AIDS victims is imminent; fearing for their lives, many health care professionals flee the area.

With Europe beginning to show increasing signs of unrest, Germany begins to quietly strengthen its military. In January nine divisions, which until know have been at half-strength, are brought up to full strength with each division having a reserve area defence brigade allotted to it. The German government responds sluggishly to growing ethnic violence, yielding to a compromise with the far right. This leads to the passing of strict immigration laws, which are widely compared to the Nazi race laws of the 1930s.

[John Farson]

1995
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With Deng Xiaoping having left the political scene in his old age the more-or-less inefficient Chinese central government begins to crumble on its own impracticality. The provinces, which have so far conducted their economies almost independently and grown richer as the central government has grown poorer, begin to systematically ignore Beijing's commands. Student pro-democracy movements, partially encouraged and funded by their wealthy foreign relatives as well as by the example of the Tiananmen Square protests over five years earlier, begin to organize peaceful demonstrations in China's university cities. These protests call for the transfer of power to the National People's Congress and for China to become a federal republic. The Chinese government, cornered like a rat and on the verge of panic, responds in the only way it knows.

On 5 February military units throughout China swarm from their garrisons into the cities to "restore order". The student protests are crushed by tanks, and the soldiers seize control of the provincial governments in the name of the Beijing government. However, with this act the government has unleashed a dragon it is unable to control. One after another, the military commanders in northern China refuse to pull their troops back into their bases, declaring martial law in their respective provinces. With southern China under the control of a military government - which had overthrown CCP rule in the South - almost a dozen separate civil wars brake out in the North as the northern provinces begin to settle their differences. No country recognises China' new (southern) government.

Having returned to Russian politics, Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party is able to get new immigration laws passed in the Duma. According to the LDP, these laws will "secure the position of the Russian population in the Federation". In effect, these laws render minorities into second class citizens. Cossacks and other extremist Russians begin to now openly provoke the locals into conflict in other CIS states.

Zhirinovsky, who has become the new interior minister, again makes waves abroad by blurting out that if the Russian minorities' situation in the CIS and the Baltic states doesn't soon improve, the locals will "only have themselves to blame for the consequences." President Yeltsin, weakened by health problems and alcoholism (partially exacerbated by political pressures), no longer seems capable of keeping political opportunists and lobbyists under check. He manages to hold on to his office mostly due to his populist skills.

In Romania, ethnic Hungarian anti-government demonstrations in several Transylvanian cities are quashed by Romanian riot police, leading to loss of life. Again the Hungarian government protests the fate of the demonstrators, while the ethnic Hungarians themselves claim it is but the opening salvo of a genocide planned by the government in Bucharest.

In June, for the first time in four months, China lets itself be heard. The southern government has managed to get the northern military districts to stop their squabbling and to unite under one banner: the territorial question of Manchuria, which for over 100 years has been a sticking point in Sino-Russian relations, is brought back to life. With Russia still economically crippled as well as weakened by domestic unrest, the Chinese consider Russia to be malleable towards territorial demands. The Kremlin's answer is that it will not negotiate with China about anything until the country has a legally elected government. Russian forces are massed at the Ussuri River to prove the government's point, in an ominous replay of events 26 years earlier.

Anti-Turkish demonstrations continue for several days in Bulgaria. These were sparked by the death of a Bulgarian-born national in police custody after his attempt on the Turkish president's life. Though Turkey claims that the death was the result of natural causes the situation turns into a crisis, with Turkish nationals advised to leave Bulgaria.

In response to the regional instability, Germany announces that the treaty restricting the size and disposition of its armed forces is "outdated with regards to the current situation in Europe." Six eastern area defence brigades are immediately upgraded into sub-strength divisions, and the original nine divisions are expanded to 12. In case of possible mobilization more forces will be sent from western Germany. Poland protests and increases the readiness of several divisions in western Poland as well as starts secret talks with Belarus. These talks falter on the question of the border city of Bialystok, however, and Belarus publicly informs that Poland has tried to involve it in a "military operation" against Germany.

At the end of the year UN peacekeeping forces are dispatched to Sri Lanka in an attempt to constrain the civil war raging in the country.

[pmulcahy11b]

This is good stuff. The people who wrote the Finnish books did a better job with the timeline than GDW did.

[Legbreaker]

I'm guessing the publishing deadline wasn't so much of a consideration...
GDW were pumping out a massive amount of product for such a relatively small staff. Errors were always going to creep in.

[John Farson]

1996
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After several armed border clashes on the Ussuri River during the autumn and early winter President Yeltsin finally agrees to meet the Chinese delegation on 3 January. The talks go nowhere, and radical Chinese officers provoke ever more violent border incidents. In the coup d'état of 7 January, dubbed the "Cossack Christmas Coup," Yeltsin is forced into exile by a government undermined by nationalist reactionaries and military leaders. Interior Minister Zhirinovsky becomes the "interim" President. His first act is to use his presidential powers to dissolve the Duma, which had supported Yeltsin's government. Seeing events unfold, the Chinese test the waters and send a new delegation to the Kremlin immediately after the coup. A furious Zhirinovsky literally throws the Chinese out of the room, bellowing after them that they should be grateful that the Czar ever left them any piece of China to inhabit. Zhirinovsky and his minions, having long plotted to annex the former Soviet republics, are forced to put off his planned "consequences" for the CIS states as Chinese tank columns cross the Ussuri River. Instead of disciplining the CIS states the new Kremlin finds itself at war with a foreign power. Enraged at this "stab in the back," Zhirinovsky vows to wipe the Yellow Peril off the face of the map, to the smiling approval of the General Staff. In a rapid counter-offensive the forces of Mother Russia crush the Chinese advance forces with their massive firepower, crossing the Ussuri River and penetrating deep into the industrial region of norhern China.

With the exception of Armenia, all the CIS defence pact signatories announce that they will not support the illegal Russian government. As the Armenians have their hands full with the Azeris, the Russians are in effect alone in their war. Ukraine and Belarus, whose armies are the strongest in the CIS after Russia's, and who have opposed Moscow's hegemony from the start, declare Russia to be expelled from the CIS. All the CIS states except Armenia join in on the declaration, but no one declares war on Russia, fearing that the restless Russian minorities would drag them into civil war.

The Chinese surprise most military experts with their ability to mobilize their reserves and move them into the front. Although the Russians make significant territorial gains their casualties keep mounting and their advance slows. Soon large numbers of People's Militia units (local defence forces/guerrillas) begin to function in their rear areas, attacking bases and destroying supply columns. As the Russians are forced to move more and more frontline troops into counter-insurgency tasks, the offensive grinds to a halt.

With the arrival of spring the Chinese forces counter-attack. To the astonishment of all western military experts they succeed in encircling large numbers of Russian forces. Most Russian units are able to break out thanks to their better mobility and overwhelming firepower, but casualties are significant, and as spring advances the Russian front is crumbling.
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More to follow!

[John Farson]

1996 (continued)
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Russia had already begun to mobilize reinforcements in its western military districts. With a state of emergency in place, this process is expedited. As an emergency stop-gap measure, half a dozen combat-ready divisions which had been transferred from Eastern Europe to the St. Petersburg military district are sent to the Chinese border. But the Far Eastern Front has become a meatgrinder that churns up divisions as they arrive. More and more civilian motor vehicles and railroad cars are commandeered to support the military machine.

Having fallen into a stalemate in the Far East and facing a "mutiny" of the CIS, Russia needs more troops. Most of the 2nd class divisions are mobilized and dispatched to the Eastern Front by the middle of the year, and nearly a quarter of the remaining western 1st class divisions are sent into combat. Many of the reserve 3rd class divisions are equipped as 2nd class divisions or are mobilized, and for the first time divisions that are only activated during mobilization begin to drill. However, many of the best remaining divisions are chosen from among the former Eastern Europe occupation units amassed at the St. Petersburg military district and are sent to "rebelling" CIS states to secure the local Russian populations and to finally place them under the flag of Greater Russia. Russia is now at war with all CIS nations except Armenia, but its situation is eased a bit by the fact that more or less severe civil wars start to tear the CIS states apart as some pro-Russians begin to fight on the Russian side. Although Ukraine and Belarus' national identities are strong enough to keep them united, the latter dares not send all of its forces east due to its strained relations with Poland. The two nations have had bad blood between each other for quite a while.

[John Farson]

1996 (continued)
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With an unpredictable Germany in the west and an ever more hostile Belarus in the east, Poland begins secret talks with Moscow. Within months this leads to a defence pact between Russia, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The pact is signed in Warsaw and its official name is the Co-operative Security Pact. The rest of the world refers to it as the new Warsaw Pact.

Besieged by its enemies, Belarus' resistance soon crumbles and its territories are split between Poland and Russia to the world's dismay. As Poland prepares to move an occupation division into former Belarussian territory, seven German-Polish soldiers in the division refuse to cross a border which, according to Poland, doesn't exist anymore. A wave of demonstrations in western Poland by Poland's German population in honour of the "Brave Seven" is met by violent riot police, resulting in several deaths and injuries. Germany condemns the action and moves several divisions to the vicinity of the border.

In June a smallish group of high-ranking Bundeswehr officers and at least one minister begin secret talks with the home region organisations of Poland's German minority. Soon afterwards a new wave of demonstrations starts, meeting the same end as its predecessors. This time, however, some of the demonstrators respond to riot police gunfire with military weapons. Polish army units pour into the area, and soon Pomerania and Silesia appear to be in the grip of civil war. Poland claims that many of the rebels are far right-wing Germans who have crossed the border with the help of the Bundeswehr. Berlin denies any connections with the rioters but admits that it is possible that some German citizens have crossed over the border. Bundeswehr units move closer to the border in order to "improve security".

In the middle of July a number of border incidents occur between Polish and German military units. Both armies' artillery fires several times over the border. On 27 July Germany's III Army Corps cross the border in order to respond to the Polish Army's 4th Mechanized Division's "full-blown attack," as they put it. In two days history repeats itself, and Germany and Poland are officially at war.
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To be continued

[John Farson]

1996 (continued)
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From the beginning the war is waged without any particular plans, as a "come as you are," and neither side is very well prepared. The Bundeswehr has just undergone a very substantive expansion and rearming. Many units are equiped with tanks and vehicles which have 4-5 years in warehouses. Both the Poles and the Russians have spent very little money on defence for several years, and the war in the East has consumed a large portion of the Russian Army's best equipment. The Poles are supported by three Russian divisions as part of the new Warsaw Pact's joint military operations, but they are still numerically outnumbered by the Germans. However, the balance of power shifts against the Germans with the Czech Army's surprising defection to the new Warsaw Pact.

By the end of November the Bundeswehr is in trouble. The Russian Air Force has left its most modern aircraft in the west, and they are both quantitatively and qualitatively more than equal with the Luftwaffe's partially obsolete aircraft. The Czech Army finally smashes its way through the reserve groups in the southern sector and drives northward into German territory. With victory in sight, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces its intention to occupy and divide Germany for good in order to prevent another German invasion.

In desperation Germany turns to its NATO allies, claiming that its actions were justified by Polish military provocations and that its very existance was under threat. As the political leadership of the European NATO member states negotiate over the justification of military assistance, the U.S. Army crosses the German-Polish border. Within the week France, Belgium, Italy and Greece first demand that American forces withdraw to their starting positions. When these demands have no effect, they withdraw from NATO in protest. British and Canadian forces join the U.S. in crossing the border, whereas Danish and Dutch forces remain where they are, still in NATO but as non-belligerents.

The Russians dare not risk their dwindling forces in the North by trying to steamroll through Finland and Sweden. Instead, they boldly attempt a quick victory in northern Norway. However, most forces equipped for Arctic warfare have already been sent East, and the available 3rd class forces are unable to break through, especially when airborne forces and marines are dispatched to reinforce NATO positions. As British commandos and U.S. Marines join the battle, the frontline is pushed east, towards the Kola Peninsula naval bases. The Russian Army's elite paratroopers and marines are cut off and destroyed.

Imperiled by the NATO advance, the Russian Northern Fleet takes to sea and attempts to break through into the North Atlantic through the Denmark Strait (between Greenland and Iceland) and the strait between Iceland and Scotland. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, but in the end the Western fleets are victorious, though bloodied. After the battle 80% of the Russian Northern Fleet rests at the bottom of the Norwegian and North Seas. Individual blockade runners(submarines?) manage to make it through, however, and by the end of the year they have torn many NATO convoys to shreds, which would have otherwise brought troops, ammunition and supplies over the Atlantic.

The Hungarian government breaks off diplomatic relations with Romania after Romanian police shoot dead a man crossing the Hungary-Romania border. The Romanians claim that the deceased was a smuggler bringing arms to anti-government forces. Three days later Hungarian Army spies or Romanian provacateurs (depending on which source you believe) blow up the railroad station in Cluj, Romania. In response, the Romanians begin mass arrests of Hungarians throughout the country. The actions of the police meet armed resistance, and a week later an ethnic Hungarian government declares Transylvania independent and secedes from Romania. As Romanian troops march north to crush the insurrection, the Hungarian government's protests go without notice, and it declares war (along with its allies).

As Hungarian, Bulgarian and Russian forces advance into Romania the government offically declares war on them and requests help from NATO.

The first country to come into Romania's aide is its neighbour Ukraine. Within a day three divisions and five brigades cross the Romanian border, and two days later they are at the front under Romanian command. At the same time Romania occupies Moldova in order to protect the Moldovan majority from "Cossack terrorists". Thus begins the ethnic cleansing and mass slaughter of the Russian minority in the Transnistria region. NATO responds to these developments a bit later by offering full membership to both countries, who accept. More concrete help arrives in the form of the Turkish 1st Army, however, which begins the offensive in Thrace against weak Bulgarian units on Christmas Eve.

In July the maoist Shining Path guerrilla group takes advantage of the general international chaos to attempt a revolution in Peru. They fail to overthrow the government but manage to seize control of about half of Peru. Other countries in Central and South America experience various amounts of political unrest and violence.

By the end of the year Russia has engulfed all the Caucasian and Asian CIS states except for Georgia, and an endless guerrilla war begins in these countries, supported by Iran and Iraq.
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Next, 1997

[John Farson]

1997
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On New Year's Day the NATO heads of state declare their support for the Polish government-in-exile, which consists of Polish emigrants. This is followed by a number of sporadic workers' rebellions, but most of the Polish Army remains loyal to the central government and open resistance is soon crushed. However, an underground movement is formed and in the spring small bands of partisans, strengthened by military deserters, begin to interfere with Warsaw Pact shipments and supply.

The continued Turkish success in Bulgaria during January awakens a wave of nationalism in Turkey, especially because Greece has remained neutral in the war. On Cyprus, which is officially unoccupied and has been united for three years, Turkish Cypriots demonstrate in favour of Turkey. These demonstrations soon turn into anti-Greek riots and the Cypriot Army begins to crack down on the unrest. Turkey responds by invading Cyprus and soon occupies most of the island. Greece sends its troops to the island against the Turks, declares war on Turkey and attacks the Turkish forces in Thrace.

At the end of February the socialist governments of Italy and Greece have signed a mutual defence treaty. According to the treaty Italy is not obligated to join the war, but its government declares the war to be a regional conflict which has nothing to do with other conflicts raging elsewhere. Italy promises to side with Greece should NATO alter the balance in Turkey's favour. A week later Greece declares a naval blockade against Turkey and warns commercial vessels that the Aegean Sea is now considered a war zone.

Russian and Czech forces attack in southern Germany in order to stabilize the situation, but they are too few in number for a successful operation. In the spring NATO's own offensive starts and the first German forces cross the Polish border in April. By 17 June Warsaw is besieged and the Polish Army units defending it prepare for the siege together with the city's inhabitants.
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To be continued

[John Farson]

1997 (continued)
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By the end of spring the NATO Atlantic fleet has managed to eliminate the last remaining Russian blockade runner. The remaining aircraft carriers and missile cruisers move to northern waters. NATO's northern flank offensive has been bogged down by the Litsa River, but the commander of the northern army group plans a bold move in order to destroy the remaining Russian naval forces. While U.S. and British units would attempt a quick flanking maneuver through Finnish Lapland, NATO's Atlantic fleet would strike Murmansk and Severomorsk, destroying the Russian fleet's anchorages and air bases with massive air strikes and artillery bombardment. The land offensive begins on 7 June and the fleet sets off for the Kola Peninsula soon afterwards.

Finland is expected to respond to this violation of her sovereignty with only symbolic resistance. Instead, the Finns fight ferociously, decisively slowing down the flanking maneuver. From the Finnish point of view the battle is a success because the aim of driving the Americans back over the border ASAP is achieved before Swedish forces, coming over to Finland's aid, can even make it into Finnish territory. At sea NATO fares even worse as missile boats protecting the coast and the last remnants of the Russian Navy's own air force inflict heavy casualties to the NATO fleet. By the middle of June the world's last true fleet-in-being has been smashed for good.

For the first time Finland and Sweden announce publicly that they have agreed to a defence alliance in order to secure their neutrality and integrity. They warn the warring parties not to violate their territory. Nevertheless the U.S. 6th Light Infantry Division, having already come through Finland, has no choice but to come back the same way it went. The Finns see no reason to tie the Americans into battle in Finnish territory, which would only lure the pursuing Russian forces into the kill. Instead, they let the remnants of the 6th Light Division run relatively freely through Lapland back into Norway and concentrate on closing the path against the pursuing Russians. Some Americans wander into Sweden by mistake, where they are disarmed and interned as peacefully as possible. The Russian Lapland Army, having dwindled to just a shadow of its former self, considers it best not to pick a fight with the two least damaged armies in Europe and chooses to settle into positions along the Litsa instead.

With regards to Northern Europe the great battles of the war have been fought and the situation stabilises for years afterwards. The NATO-Russian front will move a few hundred kilometres back and forth, but the warring parties will settle for using Norway's narrow North Atlantic coast as the battlefield.
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To be continued

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Definitely an interesting read.
Thanks again for your time and efforts in translating and posting this.

[John Farson]

Thanks, you're welcome!:)

1997 (continued)
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In the south the Romanian front stabilizes and a war of attrition begins. Now Russian mobilization divisions are moved to the frontline. These are mostly infantry, equipped with a handful of ancient tanks and APCs. Although the Romanians turn out to be better soldiers than the overaged and poorly trained Russian reservists, the Russians have more than enough quantity to make up the difference.

As Russia smashes Ukraine's paltry navy in the Black Sea, the best Russian forces are transported further south to Bulgaria, and by May they have checked the Turkish advance. The Greeks increase the pressure against the Turkish left flank in Thrace and more and more Turkish units are sent against the Greeks as a result. It is very clear that without support the Turkish Army will either have to withdraw or be defeated.

On 27 June a strongly protected NATO convoy attempts to transport badly needed ammunition and supplies to the port of Izmir, Turkey. The Greek Navy's light units intercept the convoy, however, and inflict considerable losses in a confusing night battle off Izmir, fleeing without almost any casualties. NATO responds two days later with air strikes against Greek naval bases. On 1 July Greece formally declares war on Turkey, and Italy follows with its own war declaration the next day.
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Next, the bombs begin to fall!:eek:

[John Farson]

1997 - Nuclear Twilight
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At the beginning of July Italian airborne and alpine forces advance into Tyrol through the mountain passes. The weak units of the Austrian Army offer only minimal resistance and are soon defeated. By the middle of July Italian mechanized forces are fighting German area defence forces in the suburbs of Munich.

The Italian Army's excellent success during the first months of its own war is largely due to supply reasons. Most of its opponents have already been at war for at least six months. Their peacetime ammunition and material reserves have already been spent and their industries haven't yet fully transferred into wartime production. The Italians have full peacetime reserves which they can utilize in the fighting. When autumn begins to approach the Italians too begin to feel the material crunch, and their situation is worsened by the ever larger amounts of material that their enemies are receiving from their own factories.

In Asia India and Pakistan drift into bigger and bigger border incidents, mobilization and finally war. The actual war begins in the spring and by the middle of the year the Indian Army is slowly advancing along the whole front despite the ferocious resistance of the Pakistani Army.

At the beginning of July NATO forces are approaching the border between Polish-occupied Belarus and Russian-occupied Belarus (which Russia considers to be Russian territory), while Warsaw remains besieged. The Polish government-in-exile makes Poznan into its temporary capital and declares that it is upholding the pre-1939 Polish eastern border. In the Far East Russian forces begin a strategic withdrawal along the entire front, and Chinese motorized forces begin a victorious pursuit.

With the territory of the Rodina itself under threat, and with defeat staring at them in the face, President Zhirinovsky and his cohorts turn to the last remaining trump card that they have. It is a veritable Pandora's Box...

On 9 July the vanguard of the German 1st Army enters Russian soil (actually Russian-occupied Belarus), and the Russian Army responds with tactical nuclear weapons, the first ones used in anger since Nagasaki in 9 August 1945. In the west the use of nuclear weapons is sparing at first, and during the first week they are only used against forces that are within 50 km of the Russian border. In the Far East, however, nuclear warfare is immediately begun at a large scale. The surprised Chinese mechanized units are vaporized onto the roads in the midst of the pursuit. Russian attack aircraft launch nuclear-tipped missiles against those population and industrial centers in northern China that are still in Chinese hands. The Chinese retaliation is immediate, but the Russians are prepared, having dispersed their forces over a wide area. The Chinese nuclear attacks against Russia's main population centers fail with regards to Moscow due to the efficient ABM system defending the city, and the country's massive air defence network slaughters the low-flying Chinese bombers. The nuclear imbalance between China and Russia proves fatal for the former, for within the week the Chinese nuclear arsenal has been spent. The Russians, on the other hand, still have a massive amount of nukes to spare, and they relentlessly continue to bomb China. The Chinese infrastructure and communication networks, already stretched to the breaking point, completely collapse under the Russian nuclear onslaught. The roads are filled to the brim with refugees abandoning the remaining cities. China starts its rapid descent towards chaos and anarchy.

On the Western Front the vanguards of both armies are hit hard as NATO retaliates nuclear warhead for nucler warhead. At the end of August the first Russian divisions freed up from the Far East arrived at the front. Though there are no clear frontlines, they start to gradually move west.

On 15 September the siege of Warsaw is lifted. A week later Italian and Czech forces begin their new offensive in southern Germany. The offensive proceeds and the NATO forces in Poland begin to accelerate their withdrawal, at the same time resorting to scorched earth tactics. At the same time the Warsaw Pact countries occupy Slovakia and merge it back with the Czech Republic by force.

In September the Russian and Bulgarian forces in Thrace also begin a large offensive against the Turks. The unilateral use of tactical nuclear weapons breaks the impasse and by the end of the month Bulgarian armoured brigades begin their steamroll towards Istanbul. At the same time Greek and Albanian forces begin their own offensive against southern Serbia, and the Serb army begins to crumble. The Serbian army units fighting in Romania are recalled, but before their return Belgrade fall into the hands of the rapidly advancing Italian tank columns. The Romanian front collapses under the weight of tactical nuclear weapons, growing numbers of Russian soldiers and the desertion of the Serbs. With Warsaw Pact columns rolling through both countries isolated military units withdraw to the mountains to continue the war as guerrillas. Those Ukrainians who have fought alongside the Romanians return home to defend their own borders.

Those countries who have stayed neutral who still have UN troops in the Balkans immediately recall their people from the midst of this colossal mess. This is too late for most of them, however, for aerial transport in the area is now suicidal.
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Next: full-scale nuclear war and the collapse of civilization

[John Farson]

I added the bit about Zhirinovsky and Pandora's Box myself, to give a bit of flavour to the Russian decision to use nukes. In the book there's no mention of Zhirinovsky after 1996, so one can assume that he's President of Russia right until the main nuclear exchange that decapitates the leadership of both the US and Russia. I imagine him to be like Hitler in Der Untergang (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bmkUlXp5sk&feature=related), raging in his bunker, only unlike Hitler, Zhirinovsky really does have the power to drag the whole world to hell with him.

[John Farson]

1997 - Nuclear Dawn
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In the west, NATO aircraft begin to conduct nuclear strikes deep into Poland, the Czech Republic and occupied Slovakia in an effort to slow down the Warsaw Pact's advance. The Pact responds likewise by nuking German industrial centers and port cities. NATO IRBMs are launched against industrial targets and port cities in western Russia. The tit for tat nuclear strikes continue throughout October in an ever-widening scale. Fearing a total nuclear war, neither side dare launch its ICBMs, or launch a large amount of missiles at once, in case the enemy regards it as the beginning of a massive attack and responds accordingly. Neither side is willing to step from the brink of total nuclear annihilation, and so they crawl over it, without fully realising what they have done until it is too late.

First the military targets are hit, after which the military-industrial targets are next. These are followed by the transportation and communications networks, the oil fields and refineries. Finally the industrial centers and oil refineries of neutral countries are attacked in order to deny them to the enemy. Many nuclear warheads are targeted against military supply depots and command centers. The nations' top political leadership is first decimated, then destroyed (almost by accident in some cases). The missile strikes continue spasmodically through November and December before gradually halting due to the collapsing chain of command.

In the midst of all the worldwide destruction India and Pakistan have their own nuclear war. Faced with defeat, Pakistan launches its nuclear attack against economically important targets in India as well as India's own nuclear arsenal in an effort to stave off the Indian retaliation. Despite the significant destruction of its industrial centers India has more than enough nuclear weapons for retaliation. The Indo-Pakistani War soon crawls to a halt as neither country is now able to feed its people, let alone continue to equip its military forces.
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Next, 1998

[John Farson]

1998
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The winter of 1997 and 1998 is particularly cold due to the dust raised into the atmosphere by nuclear weapons. At the turn of the year the civilian casualties in industrialized nations have risen to 15%, but the worst is yet to come. There are no longer any transportation and communications networks, and food distribution to those needing it is impossible. The nuclear war is accompanied by a famine the scale of which no one could have even predicted. Only the exceptionally cold winter delays the spreading of several kinds of disease simultaneously. In Third World countries the destruction of industry combined with the cessation of food aid causes ever more brutal misery, famine and death in many regions.

With the arrival of spring the unburied dead finally cause the spread of epidemics, which experts had feared but which they were unable to prevent. Plague, cholera, typhus, typhoid fever and many other diseases spread throughout the world. By the time they have abated over 50% of the world population will be dead.

In Europe France and Belgium have fared the best, practically standing alone while maintaining some sort of order in the midst of all the chaos. When refugees begin to stream towards the borders, their response is to close them. Military units begin to refuse entry to refugees at gunpoint. The French government allows the Army to advance to the Rhine in order to secure the eastern border with a natural barrier. A vast illegal zone is formed as refugees gather at the French and Belgian border. Open battles over food are followed by mass famine and epidemics until the illegal zone is deserted and dead.
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To be continued

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In the front, NATO divisional strength has dropped to roughly 8,000 per division, and with the U.S forces it is only half of this. Warsaw Pact divisional strength varies between 500 and 10,000, but mostly it is in the 2,000 - 4,000 man range. Fuel, ammunition and spare parts shortages freeze the opposing armies to a standstill. Now would be a good time to make peace, but no governments remain to negotiate one. Only the military commanders remain, and they loyally follow their governments' last commands. Only the army possesses the means to distribute and store food during this time of near ubiquitous famine. Military casualties have been much lower than those of civilians.

In the Balkans, the partisan groups in the mountains of Romania and the former Yugoslavia have fared fairly well, whereas many Warsaw Pact units have either been destroyed in the tactical nuclear attacks, or scattered to the four winds afterwards. Indeed, Romanians and Serbs begin to re-establish new regular units, although they are still required to live off the land and are equipped with captured enemy equipment. At least in the beginning quite a bit of equipment is acquired by simply gathering it from all the material left behind by the enemy.

The borders also change. The Italian Army abolishes the borders of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia while the Greek Army annexes Macedonia. The Albanians demand the province of Kosovo, but both Greece and Italy support the Serbs' position. Albania first protests, then withdraws from the alliance and finally begins sporadic attacks against Greek units. They are joined by Kosovar and Macedonian Albanian guerrillas. At the same time Italian and Hungarian units are withdrawn from the Balkans and transferred to the Czech Republic, Slovakia and southern Germany. A few officers who are sympathetic to the neutrality of the orphaned Finnish and Swedish UN forces offer them a ride with the columns to Germany. By 2000 only a few dozen men and women out of the remants of one Swedish and two Finnish battalions will wander back to their home countries. The fate of the others is unknown.
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Next: the war with Mexico

[John Farson]

1998 (continued)
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In North America masses of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande. As a result most of the remaining U.S. military units are transferred to the southwestern United States in order to deal with the growing crisis. They receive their orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), which now practically runs the United States. Widespread food riots and violence amongst the refugees is suppressed by military force. The Mexican government protests and within a few months the Mexican Army crosses the Rio Grande in order to protect the beleagured Mexicans. More American forces are moved south. The sporadic skirmishes escalate into open warfare, and Mexican tank columns begin to advance northeast towards Arkansas and northwest towards California. The front is soon halted at northeast Texas and central California. Anarchy and unrest spread throughout the rest of the U.S. as army units are moved to the front, leaving fewer units to keep the peace.

At the end of June Warsaw Pact forces in southern Germany restart their offensive with the aim of seizing the few remaining industrial centers in central Germany. Most of the best surviving areas in Germany are actually in the Pact-occupied South because neither side wished to destroy the valuable industrial areas. Regrouping itself during the attack, NATO does all it can to form a new frontline, and the Pact offensive is finally halted at the Frankfurt-Fulda line.

At the end of August NATO begins its own counteroffensive from the area of Karl Marx Stadt southwards, aiming at the Warsaw Pact's rear in the Czech Republic and Slovakia (which the Warsaw Pact calls Czechoslovakia). The Czech borderguards' paperthin defence is quickly crushed and the Warsaw Pact forces in central Germany begin their withdrawal towards the Czech Republic. In the process, the previously more or less intact southern Germany is utterly destroyed.

At the same time the Serbian Army's offensive is directed northwards with the goal of linking up with NATO forces. However, the Serbs are halted at Lake Balaton and are forced back.

As fresh Pact units arrive in "Czechoslovakia", the NATO offensive peters out. NATO forces are now moved west to occupy destroyed southern Germany. A desperate attempt to invade Italy through the alpine passes failes despite great sacrifices.

As the autumn rains begin NATO and the Warsaw Pact launch a second, short and weak nuclear exchange. This time the focus is on the destruction of Italy's and Britain's remaining industrial centers.

As both sides prepare for a new winter the battles finally degrade into mere skirmishes.
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Next: 1999

[John Farson]

1999
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The U.S. Congress convenes immediately after the spring planting for the first time since the use of ICBMs in autumn 1997. Senator John Brown (D-Arkansas), the former governor of Arkansas, appoints himself to one of the state's two vacant senate seats, followed by Congress electing him president. General Jonathan Cummings, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, regards the vote as unconstitutional and refuses to accept the result, citing vote fraud and the shady pasts of many congressmen.

(Although Cummings' decision is later widely criticized, his views were arguable. Many of the congressional seats were disputed. Many of the congressmen present were just local strongmen who had acquired most of the old congressional districts. Some had never even seen the district which they were supposed to represent. It could be confirmed that at least once a dispute over a congressional seat had been solved by guns while the House was in session.)

General Cummings declares that martial law will continue until a new census has been made, which will be necessary for the redistribution of congressional seats and the election of the president. President Brown responds by demanding Cummings' resignation, to which the general refuses. Although some military units moved over to the civilian government, most of the military continues to take its orders from the JCS (especially outside the U.S.) for two reasons: First, there is a tradition in the army of obeying one's superiors and the chain of command, which has usually kept the troops together so far. Second, the JCS possesses nearly all the remaining intact communications networks.

In North America the greatest effect of the split is the accelerated crumbling of central government. Most citizens refused to listen to either of the two competing governments, for their legality was mostly superficial.

The remaining national organisations and foreign governments choose between the competing governments. Germany's military government and the Polish government-in-exile continue with the military government (MILGOV), while the former Yugoslavian and Romanian partisans choose the civilian government (CIVGOV). The remnants of the CIA obey CIVGOV while the NSA remains loyal to the military, organising its own network of operatives to replace the CIA "defectors". Officially, the two governments avoid violence, publicly proclaiming to seek a peaceful resolution. In reality there are occasional skirmishes over vital bases, bloody coups in military units and numerous assassinations and other "dirty tricks" occur between the competing intelligence networks.

The troop transfers to Europe continue in the autumn, though at a very small scale. A few remaining warships protect the convoy, which consists of various merchant vessels. After CIVGOV's initiative both governments try to outdo the other, regarding success as proof of the faction's ability to remobilize the nation. In reality the mobilization only applies to the Atlantic coast and leads to huge resistance. Few people think at this point that shipping men, equipment and supplies to Europe is at all feasible with America's own situation being nearly untenable.

In reality the reinforcements are just a meagre amount of light vehicles and ammunition and mostly light infantry. Mortars are becoming the most popular fire support weapon, since they can be manufactured easily in small machine shops and backyards.

In Europe the front is immobile for most of the year. Patrols and guerrilla activity have become the most important methods of waging war due to the spread out nature of the armies. The front morphs from a unified line into a deep, sparsely populated zone as the troops settle down and start farming and small-scale industry in order to improve on their own supplies. Local civilians are hired to farm the land and to tend to administrative duties in exchange for protection against the ever increasing bands of bandits that plague the countryside. In some areas the security that a military unit provides to civilians means safety from the unit itself - a kind of post-apocalyptic "protection money." Many units in barren areas disperse or turn to banditry as they fall low on supplies. Even though most attacks are directed against "enemy" territory, they are later also directed against "allied" units, though not against units of the same country - at least not yet.

The chaos and death that has struck most of the population with the collapse of world trade is felt all over the world. The population of central Africa has been particularly hit hard, for with the onset of war the production and supply of the HIV vaccine to Third World nations has ceased at the same time as the number of AIDS cases has risen to 50% of the population.

No area is far enough away from the war to avoid it. Even the research stations in Antarctica and in space have been abandoned due to the war.
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Next: 2000

[John Farson]

2000
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By the spring of 2000 Europe's armies have adapted into their new "military cantonment administration" system. There are practically no civilian authorities left. Many military units recruit large numbers of the local population in order to keep their forces in strength, and stragglers are attached into units regardless of nationality. Therefore an American unit, for example, can contain quite a few former NATO and Warsaw Pact troops in addition to the Americans themselves. The units' official names (brigades, divisions etc.) no longer bear any meaning on the unit's true size.

At the beginning of summer the German 3rd Army, spearheaded by the U.S. XI Corps, sets off from its areas into one of the war's last strategic offensives.

[kato13]

Bravo. Nicely done. Thanks for all the hard work.

[John Farson]

You are welcome.

I am now working on the World situation in 2000.