kato13
01-21-2010, 09:38 PM
shrike6 01-22-2004, 11:49 AM I realize that for the most part the Sino- Soviet war happens in what was once called Manchuria and also Mongolia. I was just a little curious as to what happens in the more desolate Xinjiang province. The province that borders Soviet Central Asia. I was also wondering how the ethnic Uighurs of that province may play into the Soviets battle plans.
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/uighur.htm
http://acadprojwww.wlu.edu/vol4/BlackmerH/public_html/easia/uighur.html
http://www.selfdetermine.org/conflicts/uighur_body.html
http://www.gvnews.net/demo/html/WorldReacts/alert230.html
http://www.uyghuramerican.org/mediareports/1997/chrisscieaug2797.html
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/1999/31700599.htm
http://www.aijac.org.au/review/1998/2313/xinjiang.html
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 11:58 AM Here's a map.
http://www.selfdetermine.org/conflicts/maps/uighur.jpg
********************
Matt Wiser 01-22-2004, 12:55 PM I'm suprised at that too; Trevor Dupuy's Future Wars chapter on a Sino-Russian War has a joint Russian/Kazakh force moving on Urumqi. Big problem IIRC was that the high altitude of the area affected helo performance for gunships and heliborne assaults. Isn't the PRC's nuclear test site and its space launch center in this area? Prime target for a ground attack, let alone air/missile attack.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 01:40 PM The nuke test site is only 176 miles from Urumqi. East Wind is in nearby Gansu province.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 02:33 PM My point here isn't so much of having major combat operations happening in Xinjiang between the Chinese and Soviets, but having a place to tie down some Chinese Divisions fighting a Soviet integated rebellion.
********************
orrin_ladd 01-22-2004, 05:57 PM Originally posted by shrike6
My point here isn't so much of having major combat operations happening in Xinjiang between the Chinese and Soviets, but having a place to tie down some Chinese Divisions fighting a Soviet integated rebellion.
There's been a low level Uighur independence movement in Xinjiang for some time now. Every so often some Uighurs will blow up something and the PRC will respond with the usual respect for human rights.
As for the T2k world, you could have the Soviets trying to use the Uighurs to their advantage. But keep in mind, the Uighurs are Muslim, and the Soviets have their own problems with Muslims IRL and in the T2k world. Interestingly enough, there are many different minority groups in China, including descendents of White Russians.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the T2k vehicle guides have Soviet forces in Xinjiang? (I don't have easy access to my books anymore.):eek:
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 06:46 PM Depends on what one deems low level I guess. According to statistics, 19 counts of revolts and riots and 194 cases of counter-revolutionary separatist activities occurred in the whole Autonomous Region in the 30 years between March 1951 and May 1981. http://www.taklamakan.org/erkin/Chinese/trans1.htm
The Baren Incident
On April 5, 1990 an armed uprising broke out in Baren, a rural county in the Akto district south of Kashgar, provoked by Chinese Communists. According to unofficial sources, the Baren incident began as a protest by villagers against the closure of a local mosque prior to a religious festival (in March 1990, the authorities had reportedly banned the construction of new mosques and Islamic schools). Almost three thousand armed Eastern Turkestanis under the leadership of Zeydin Yusuf disarmed the police forces, occupied the Baren township Party and government building and declared war against the Chinese Communists in order to establish a independent Eastern Turkestan Republic. By late afternoon the uprising had spread to nine other townships in the area.
The Chinese Communist authorities dispatched armed police forces, militiamen and Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) units to Baren early on the morning of April 6. At the same time 200,000 special anti-riot forces from Lanzhou Military District were dispatched to Eastern Turkestan. Troops were flown in day and night by military transport planes and helicopters. The airports of Urumchi, Aksu, Kashgar, Yarkent and Hoten were closed.
The Eastern Turkestani people took up hunting rifles and any weapons they could find while some Chinese soldiers threw away their weapons and fled. According to the witnesses the Chinese used tanks and fighters to bomb townships in the area. Nine townships were bombed and almost one thousand Eastern Turkestanis and 600 soldiers and policemen died.
Beginning on April 8 martial law was enforced in the area. As resistance continued almost 2,000 Eastern Turkestanis retreated to the nearby Pamir Mountains and continued their resistance until they were totally wiped out by fighter bombers.
According to witnesses, Tomur Dawamet, the governor of so-called Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region who visited the scene of the Chinese brutality, with tears in his eyes asked the Chinese officials, "How could you do this?"
http://www.taklamakan.org/etib/etib3_2.html#2
http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/archive/4_11_2.html#1.2
Beijing's central authority has been under increasing challenge from Muslim separatists in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of western China in recent years. Although less well known than the anti-Chinese struggle in Tibet, the low-key conflict which has been simmering in Xinjiang since the late 1980s has resulted in significant loss of life and reliably documented human rights violations. In April 1990, for example, Chinese government forces reportedly killed some 50 protestors in putting down a five-day uprising by religious extremists in the Baren district south of Kashgar. The Baren incident was followed by several other outbreaks of unrest throughout Xinjiang and the authorities, for the first time, admitted that independence activists were responsible. Since then, there have been steady reports of bombings and assassinations in urban centres in Xinjiang, as well as three separate bomb attacks in Beijing in the spring of 1997 which were attributed to Muslim separatists. The Beijing bombings are significant in that they marked an expansion of the violent campaign for independence in Xinjiang into the Han Chinese heartland. Attacks against Chinese soldiers and officials, as well as against perceived pro-Beijing Muslim sympathizers, continued in Xinjiang throughout 1997 amidst reports of widespread street fighting and the mass arrest of suspected separatists.
Thus far, the independence movement in Xinjiang has failed to generate widespread support and remains too fractured to present a meaningful threat to Beijing's rule. There are indications, however, that the increasingly savage suppression of Muslim protests is generating unprecedented unity within the various separatist groups in Xinjiang and greater coordination is quickly developing. The stakes are potentially high and Beijing is undoubtedly concerned that separatist activities hold the prospect of becoming a significant threat to China's long-term political stability. The ethnic problems the central government faces in China's peripheral regions are widespread, serious and growing. In particular, separatism in Xinjiang lends support to the active independence movement in Tibet and influences nascent ethnic unrest closer to Beijing in Inner Mongolia. Moreover, economic factors are of equal significance. Hopes are that Xinjiang contains major oil deposits which, if proven, will be of enormous benefit to China's economic development prospects. It has been estimated that China will need to import 21 million tons of oil by 2010 if it is to maintain its present economic growth rate, and energy security is a major consideration in Beijing's policy towards the region.
http://www.uyghuramerican.org/researchanalysis/unrestinET.html
********************
orrin_ladd 01-22-2004, 07:06 PM ah well, you can't win them all! So it's not as low level as I had thought.
Shrike, let me ask you this. What do you think the Soviets and Uighurs will be doing in T2k?
Another important thing to note, thar's oil in Xinjaing!
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:15 PM Can't find any Soviet forces in Xinjiang province. The closest would probably be the ones in Mongolia depending on where those are stationed.
Are Eastern Turkestanis fundamentalists ?
No. First, not all the peoples of Eastern Turkestan are Muslims. Situated on the historical Silk Road Eastern Turkestan connected East and West and became the seat of various ethnic and linguistic groups, cultures and religions. This variety is preserved today and includes, besides the Chinese settlers, some 17 ethnic groups following several different religious traditions. Among Eastern Turkestan's Muslims are Turkic peoples (Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tartars), Indo Europeans (Tajiks) and even ethnic Chinese (the Hui people). Buddhism is practiced by Mongols, Manchus, Tibetans and Yellow Uighurs, while many ethnic Russians are Orthodox Christians. For centuries these groups with their different cultural, linguistic and religious backgrounds have lived at peace with one another. It is thus incorrect to identify the Turkic peoples of Eastern Turkestan in particular, or the Turkic peoples in general, merely as "Muslims."
Second, the Turkic peoples of Eastern Turkestan, including the Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tartars, were never fundamentalists in the Western sense. A well-known Uighur religious leader recently responded to a question about fundamentalist activity in Eastern Turkestan in the following way: "To be able to become a fundamentalist first of all you have to know your religion very well. If a Muslim knows his religion very well he cannot be a fundamentalist. The Koran says: 'Don't fight one who does not fight you in your religion.' It says: All God's creatures are His family and he is the most beloved of God who doeth good to God and His creatures.' It says: 'Shall I not inform you of better acts than fasting, almsgiving and prayers? Making peace between one another. Enmity and malice tear up heavenly rewards by the roots.'
Finally, the peoples of Eastern Turkestan firmly believe that whatever injustices have been carried out in the name of religion, they are not condoned by the principle teachings of those religions. Love for humanity, peace and tolerance are at the core of all religions. Eastern Turkestanis are, therefore, troubled when some Western scholars, journalists and intellectuals confuse Muslims everywhere with the activities of extremists.
http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/et_faq_p1.html
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:21 PM I'm personally thinking thorn in the side. The Soviets would provide arms for a low level guerilla war. Tying down several Chinese Divisions in the process. Nothing more dramatic then that. Maybe a few more than would be normally needed considering Xinjiang province has borders with India and Soviet Central Asia and Mongolia.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:27 PM By Arms I'm thinking Small Arms for the most parts, Rifles, Machineguns, RPGs and MANPADS.
Also a few Soviet Spetnaz units may work in the area as well. but nothing larger than that for the Soviets.
********************
Matt Wiser 01-23-2004, 12:39 AM Spetsnatz activity? You bet. Air and missile attack on military and industrial targets as a matter of course. Whichever Soviet Army or Front was based in the Central Asian Military District (Kazakhstan and Adjoining parts of Russia and adjacent areas) should have crossed the border. Granted, it's a sideshow, and the soldiers fight just as hard and the losers are just as dead as those KIA'd in Manchuria, but an Army-size incursion ties down the local PLA forces, and with Spetsnatz running around causing trouble, the local PLA garrisons are going to be very busy. Urumqui and the nuclear test site at Lop Nur should be the main objectives of the incursion. Destroy the Lop Nur facilities and pull back to Urumqui, dig in and hold it as long as possible. If the PLA has enough force to retake the city, pull out and leave nothing useful of military significance. (Roads, RR lines, airfields, etc, plus whatever industry has survived the fighting) Fighting withdrawal back to the Soviet border without actually recrossing it. (then one can say the Chinese didn't push a Soviet Army back across the border)
And the divisions that the Soviets engaged have to stay and watch them and make sure there are no more pushes south. That's several PLA divisions that can't be reassigned to Manchuria.
********************
Jason Weiser 01-23-2004, 04:51 AM Oooh,
Here is an UGLY thought. We all know that the Soviets were backing all sorts of terrorists in the 1980s..Islamic terrorists, (the PFLP and Abu Nidal being two) and were bankrolling the Libyans. Now Spetsnaz does seem plausible, but word might get around from Afghanistan what is being done by these folks to their fellow Muslims there.
My idea is, why not have the Soviets import some of these folks to forment your rebellion, if any of them are caught, you can disavow it rather easily. And they're expendible, muslim, and know a million ways to cause mayhem. You also preserve your Spetznaz assets for use in Manchuria. And anyhow, the Soviets know the real battle is occuring in Manchuria, so you tie down PLA assets for the cost of some light arms and a few terrorists.
********************
shrike6 01-23-2004, 05:09 PM You know Jason I like the way you think. I hadn't thought about importing Islamic terrorists but I like it. Otherwise you and I are thinking along the same lines its a way for the Soviets to tie down some Chinese manpower while preserving their assets.
********************
Matt Wiser 01-23-2004, 08:08 PM Ivan would have to be careful, even though they're out of Afghanistan, a lot of Muslims still would have bad feelings towards the Soviets for Afghanistan. The KGB or GRU would have to choose wisely, or have some problems later on...
********************
orrin_ladd 01-24-2004, 04:04 PM I agree with Matt. Soviet support of the Uighurs could end up biting them in the ass. Spetznaz operations would probably happen, there are large oil reserves in Xinjiang.
Consider that Uighurs have fought in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and also in Chechnya against the Russians.
Also consider that in the T2k world, the Soviet Central Asian republics are all in various states of rebellion, and that many Soviet units comprised of Central Asian minorities have rebelled.
What may happen is a Uighur "civil war", with some Uighur groups garnering support from the Soviets, some supported by the PRC (the "good communists") and some supported by the US (and loosely allied with the PRC groups).
If anyone's interested, there was a posting on one of the t2k yahoo groups with a list of all the ethnic minorities in the PRC.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Twi2000/message/2533
BTW, IRL Uighurs have been found fighting in Afghanistan for the Taliban, Bosnia and Kashimir. Also, one of the Uighur groups, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) has been added to the U.S. Dept of State terrorist list. Some contend that the addition was for political reasons (to gain PRC support for the war on terrorism), but two members were caught in Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to blow up the U.S. embassy.
http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/etim.cfm
http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/2001/08/26/13363.html
********************
shrike6 01-25-2004, 01:04 PM Orrin, first off were talking the time period of 1995-96, so those Soviet units haven't rebelled yet.
Number two, I don't see what the State Department Terrorist list has to do with Soviet foreign policy in this timeline. In fact if anything it tends to bolster my point, because I bet the State Department terrorist list back in the 80s was probably chocked full of Soviet sponsored terrorist groups.
Number three, Xinjiang is a part of China. So, I can't see the US getting involved in a purely internal Chinese matter. If they do, it would be to support the Chinese and not to set up some independent state.
Number four, I don't see this huge groundswell of Uighurs supporting China like you do, or joining a Chinese supported group. http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/et_faq_p1b.html#e3
Number five, You're also assuming that the Soviets want an independent East Turkistan state. I don't necessarily see that as the case. The Soviets may very well be supporting the Uighers because its a convienent way to tie down Chinese divisions and when its no longer convienent, "pull the rug out from under the Uighers" and let the Chinese deal with the problem like they have in the past.
Number six, Orrin you say that "Consider that Uighurs have fought in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and also in Chechnya against the Russians." I'm going to extend this arguement to the logical conclusion. No member of the Afghanistan Mujahadeen groups would ever support any type of action against the US since the US supported them in their war against the Soviets, right?
Number seven, Matt, I see where the Syrians, Libyans, PLO, PLPF (Popular front for the Liberstion of Palestine), Abu Nidal, Harakat-i Inqilab-i Islami just to name a few would all hate the Soviets for providing training and support to their governments and organizations.
Number eight, The Contradiction between Nationalists and Islamists in Eurasian Conflict Areas, a very important read
http://www.cc.jyu.fi/~aphamala/pe/2003/chepolen.htm
********************
Matt Wiser 01-25-2004, 04:57 PM Shirke, I'm not talking about the Syrians, Libyans, PLO, PFLP,etc. biting the Soviets. I'm talking about the Islamists that OBL and his crowd represent at the present time. If there was a Soviet incursion into this area, and the Soviets decided to use locals as surrogates, they had better watch out-some of those folks had gone to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets. Fundamentalists would have reason to hate a semi-resurgent USSR in T2K as much as the U.S. in that timeline, just as much as they hate Americans, Russians, Israelis, British, Australians, etc. IRL. Any locals serving the Soviets would have to pass muster by the KGB and the GRU to make sure they don't bite the Soviets later.
********************
Webstral 01-26-2004, 01:35 AM I hadn't planned on having a major Soviet incursion in China's Far West. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the Soviets are only willing to commit so much manpower and materiel to the Sino-Soviet War--at least in 1995. Every division that starts fighting in Central Asia takes material support away from a division in Manchuria. If an army-sized force actually penetrates any distance inside China, it has to be replaced back in Kazakhstan (or another SSR) by an army from somewhere else or from the reserves. Since the Kremlin (Danilov) puts a ceiling on the commitment of troops to the initial invasion, an adventure on China's northwest periphery takes away from the main effort in Manchuria.
The other reason is that there's very little of real import out there. Test sites and launch facilities are not the same as Manchurian-style mineral wealth, agricultural output, and industrial capability. Again, we should remember that the Sino-Soviet War is supposed to have been done within sixty days. The Soviets start the war with the intent of using the situation in Manchuria to force the PRC to the bargaining table. Threatening facilities in China's hinterlands might have some value, but I'm writing my version such that the Soviets conclude it is better to mass their assets in the theater where the decision will be made.
Another reason for keeping Soviet forces in Central Asia on the Soviet side of border is that the Chinese have to guard against them anyway. A Soviet army or two conducting maneuvers on their side of border represents a threat that will tie down at least an equivalent number of Chinese divisions. If the Soviets can tie down a substantial number of Chinese troops without committing themselves to active combat away from the Far Eastern TVD, I thin they will.
Come November 1995, everything changes. What was a short-term medium-scale war has just turned into a much bigger and longer affair. At this point, the Soviets step up their efforts to foment local insurrection. Several already have talked about this above, so I won't repeat their remarks here. Suffice to say that the supply of small arms, mortars, and shoulder-fired missiles to local malcontents, along with the judicious use of Spetznaz, will cause the PRC some problems during the Winter War and afterwards.
Of course, the flow of small arms and other equipment into the hands of various non-Russian peoples in Central Asia comes back to haunt the Soviets in 1998. Thereafter, the locals in Central Asia show an increasing tendency towards self-rule, aided in no small way by the survivors of the brutal Chinese crack-downs in China's Far West.
Webstral
********************
http://www.fas.org/irp/world/para/uighur.htm
http://acadprojwww.wlu.edu/vol4/BlackmerH/public_html/easia/uighur.html
http://www.selfdetermine.org/conflicts/uighur_body.html
http://www.gvnews.net/demo/html/WorldReacts/alert230.html
http://www.uyghuramerican.org/mediareports/1997/chrisscieaug2797.html
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/1999/31700599.htm
http://www.aijac.org.au/review/1998/2313/xinjiang.html
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 11:58 AM Here's a map.
http://www.selfdetermine.org/conflicts/maps/uighur.jpg
********************
Matt Wiser 01-22-2004, 12:55 PM I'm suprised at that too; Trevor Dupuy's Future Wars chapter on a Sino-Russian War has a joint Russian/Kazakh force moving on Urumqi. Big problem IIRC was that the high altitude of the area affected helo performance for gunships and heliborne assaults. Isn't the PRC's nuclear test site and its space launch center in this area? Prime target for a ground attack, let alone air/missile attack.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 01:40 PM The nuke test site is only 176 miles from Urumqi. East Wind is in nearby Gansu province.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 02:33 PM My point here isn't so much of having major combat operations happening in Xinjiang between the Chinese and Soviets, but having a place to tie down some Chinese Divisions fighting a Soviet integated rebellion.
********************
orrin_ladd 01-22-2004, 05:57 PM Originally posted by shrike6
My point here isn't so much of having major combat operations happening in Xinjiang between the Chinese and Soviets, but having a place to tie down some Chinese Divisions fighting a Soviet integated rebellion.
There's been a low level Uighur independence movement in Xinjiang for some time now. Every so often some Uighurs will blow up something and the PRC will respond with the usual respect for human rights.
As for the T2k world, you could have the Soviets trying to use the Uighurs to their advantage. But keep in mind, the Uighurs are Muslim, and the Soviets have their own problems with Muslims IRL and in the T2k world. Interestingly enough, there are many different minority groups in China, including descendents of White Russians.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the T2k vehicle guides have Soviet forces in Xinjiang? (I don't have easy access to my books anymore.):eek:
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 06:46 PM Depends on what one deems low level I guess. According to statistics, 19 counts of revolts and riots and 194 cases of counter-revolutionary separatist activities occurred in the whole Autonomous Region in the 30 years between March 1951 and May 1981. http://www.taklamakan.org/erkin/Chinese/trans1.htm
The Baren Incident
On April 5, 1990 an armed uprising broke out in Baren, a rural county in the Akto district south of Kashgar, provoked by Chinese Communists. According to unofficial sources, the Baren incident began as a protest by villagers against the closure of a local mosque prior to a religious festival (in March 1990, the authorities had reportedly banned the construction of new mosques and Islamic schools). Almost three thousand armed Eastern Turkestanis under the leadership of Zeydin Yusuf disarmed the police forces, occupied the Baren township Party and government building and declared war against the Chinese Communists in order to establish a independent Eastern Turkestan Republic. By late afternoon the uprising had spread to nine other townships in the area.
The Chinese Communist authorities dispatched armed police forces, militiamen and Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) units to Baren early on the morning of April 6. At the same time 200,000 special anti-riot forces from Lanzhou Military District were dispatched to Eastern Turkestan. Troops were flown in day and night by military transport planes and helicopters. The airports of Urumchi, Aksu, Kashgar, Yarkent and Hoten were closed.
The Eastern Turkestani people took up hunting rifles and any weapons they could find while some Chinese soldiers threw away their weapons and fled. According to the witnesses the Chinese used tanks and fighters to bomb townships in the area. Nine townships were bombed and almost one thousand Eastern Turkestanis and 600 soldiers and policemen died.
Beginning on April 8 martial law was enforced in the area. As resistance continued almost 2,000 Eastern Turkestanis retreated to the nearby Pamir Mountains and continued their resistance until they were totally wiped out by fighter bombers.
According to witnesses, Tomur Dawamet, the governor of so-called Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region who visited the scene of the Chinese brutality, with tears in his eyes asked the Chinese officials, "How could you do this?"
http://www.taklamakan.org/etib/etib3_2.html#2
http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/archive/4_11_2.html#1.2
Beijing's central authority has been under increasing challenge from Muslim separatists in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of western China in recent years. Although less well known than the anti-Chinese struggle in Tibet, the low-key conflict which has been simmering in Xinjiang since the late 1980s has resulted in significant loss of life and reliably documented human rights violations. In April 1990, for example, Chinese government forces reportedly killed some 50 protestors in putting down a five-day uprising by religious extremists in the Baren district south of Kashgar. The Baren incident was followed by several other outbreaks of unrest throughout Xinjiang and the authorities, for the first time, admitted that independence activists were responsible. Since then, there have been steady reports of bombings and assassinations in urban centres in Xinjiang, as well as three separate bomb attacks in Beijing in the spring of 1997 which were attributed to Muslim separatists. The Beijing bombings are significant in that they marked an expansion of the violent campaign for independence in Xinjiang into the Han Chinese heartland. Attacks against Chinese soldiers and officials, as well as against perceived pro-Beijing Muslim sympathizers, continued in Xinjiang throughout 1997 amidst reports of widespread street fighting and the mass arrest of suspected separatists.
Thus far, the independence movement in Xinjiang has failed to generate widespread support and remains too fractured to present a meaningful threat to Beijing's rule. There are indications, however, that the increasingly savage suppression of Muslim protests is generating unprecedented unity within the various separatist groups in Xinjiang and greater coordination is quickly developing. The stakes are potentially high and Beijing is undoubtedly concerned that separatist activities hold the prospect of becoming a significant threat to China's long-term political stability. The ethnic problems the central government faces in China's peripheral regions are widespread, serious and growing. In particular, separatism in Xinjiang lends support to the active independence movement in Tibet and influences nascent ethnic unrest closer to Beijing in Inner Mongolia. Moreover, economic factors are of equal significance. Hopes are that Xinjiang contains major oil deposits which, if proven, will be of enormous benefit to China's economic development prospects. It has been estimated that China will need to import 21 million tons of oil by 2010 if it is to maintain its present economic growth rate, and energy security is a major consideration in Beijing's policy towards the region.
http://www.uyghuramerican.org/researchanalysis/unrestinET.html
********************
orrin_ladd 01-22-2004, 07:06 PM ah well, you can't win them all! So it's not as low level as I had thought.
Shrike, let me ask you this. What do you think the Soviets and Uighurs will be doing in T2k?
Another important thing to note, thar's oil in Xinjaing!
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:15 PM Can't find any Soviet forces in Xinjiang province. The closest would probably be the ones in Mongolia depending on where those are stationed.
Are Eastern Turkestanis fundamentalists ?
No. First, not all the peoples of Eastern Turkestan are Muslims. Situated on the historical Silk Road Eastern Turkestan connected East and West and became the seat of various ethnic and linguistic groups, cultures and religions. This variety is preserved today and includes, besides the Chinese settlers, some 17 ethnic groups following several different religious traditions. Among Eastern Turkestan's Muslims are Turkic peoples (Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tartars), Indo Europeans (Tajiks) and even ethnic Chinese (the Hui people). Buddhism is practiced by Mongols, Manchus, Tibetans and Yellow Uighurs, while many ethnic Russians are Orthodox Christians. For centuries these groups with their different cultural, linguistic and religious backgrounds have lived at peace with one another. It is thus incorrect to identify the Turkic peoples of Eastern Turkestan in particular, or the Turkic peoples in general, merely as "Muslims."
Second, the Turkic peoples of Eastern Turkestan, including the Uighurs, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks and Tartars, were never fundamentalists in the Western sense. A well-known Uighur religious leader recently responded to a question about fundamentalist activity in Eastern Turkestan in the following way: "To be able to become a fundamentalist first of all you have to know your religion very well. If a Muslim knows his religion very well he cannot be a fundamentalist. The Koran says: 'Don't fight one who does not fight you in your religion.' It says: All God's creatures are His family and he is the most beloved of God who doeth good to God and His creatures.' It says: 'Shall I not inform you of better acts than fasting, almsgiving and prayers? Making peace between one another. Enmity and malice tear up heavenly rewards by the roots.'
Finally, the peoples of Eastern Turkestan firmly believe that whatever injustices have been carried out in the name of religion, they are not condoned by the principle teachings of those religions. Love for humanity, peace and tolerance are at the core of all religions. Eastern Turkestanis are, therefore, troubled when some Western scholars, journalists and intellectuals confuse Muslims everywhere with the activities of extremists.
http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/et_faq_p1.html
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:21 PM I'm personally thinking thorn in the side. The Soviets would provide arms for a low level guerilla war. Tying down several Chinese Divisions in the process. Nothing more dramatic then that. Maybe a few more than would be normally needed considering Xinjiang province has borders with India and Soviet Central Asia and Mongolia.
********************
shrike6 01-22-2004, 07:27 PM By Arms I'm thinking Small Arms for the most parts, Rifles, Machineguns, RPGs and MANPADS.
Also a few Soviet Spetnaz units may work in the area as well. but nothing larger than that for the Soviets.
********************
Matt Wiser 01-23-2004, 12:39 AM Spetsnatz activity? You bet. Air and missile attack on military and industrial targets as a matter of course. Whichever Soviet Army or Front was based in the Central Asian Military District (Kazakhstan and Adjoining parts of Russia and adjacent areas) should have crossed the border. Granted, it's a sideshow, and the soldiers fight just as hard and the losers are just as dead as those KIA'd in Manchuria, but an Army-size incursion ties down the local PLA forces, and with Spetsnatz running around causing trouble, the local PLA garrisons are going to be very busy. Urumqui and the nuclear test site at Lop Nur should be the main objectives of the incursion. Destroy the Lop Nur facilities and pull back to Urumqui, dig in and hold it as long as possible. If the PLA has enough force to retake the city, pull out and leave nothing useful of military significance. (Roads, RR lines, airfields, etc, plus whatever industry has survived the fighting) Fighting withdrawal back to the Soviet border without actually recrossing it. (then one can say the Chinese didn't push a Soviet Army back across the border)
And the divisions that the Soviets engaged have to stay and watch them and make sure there are no more pushes south. That's several PLA divisions that can't be reassigned to Manchuria.
********************
Jason Weiser 01-23-2004, 04:51 AM Oooh,
Here is an UGLY thought. We all know that the Soviets were backing all sorts of terrorists in the 1980s..Islamic terrorists, (the PFLP and Abu Nidal being two) and were bankrolling the Libyans. Now Spetsnaz does seem plausible, but word might get around from Afghanistan what is being done by these folks to their fellow Muslims there.
My idea is, why not have the Soviets import some of these folks to forment your rebellion, if any of them are caught, you can disavow it rather easily. And they're expendible, muslim, and know a million ways to cause mayhem. You also preserve your Spetznaz assets for use in Manchuria. And anyhow, the Soviets know the real battle is occuring in Manchuria, so you tie down PLA assets for the cost of some light arms and a few terrorists.
********************
shrike6 01-23-2004, 05:09 PM You know Jason I like the way you think. I hadn't thought about importing Islamic terrorists but I like it. Otherwise you and I are thinking along the same lines its a way for the Soviets to tie down some Chinese manpower while preserving their assets.
********************
Matt Wiser 01-23-2004, 08:08 PM Ivan would have to be careful, even though they're out of Afghanistan, a lot of Muslims still would have bad feelings towards the Soviets for Afghanistan. The KGB or GRU would have to choose wisely, or have some problems later on...
********************
orrin_ladd 01-24-2004, 04:04 PM I agree with Matt. Soviet support of the Uighurs could end up biting them in the ass. Spetznaz operations would probably happen, there are large oil reserves in Xinjiang.
Consider that Uighurs have fought in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and also in Chechnya against the Russians.
Also consider that in the T2k world, the Soviet Central Asian republics are all in various states of rebellion, and that many Soviet units comprised of Central Asian minorities have rebelled.
What may happen is a Uighur "civil war", with some Uighur groups garnering support from the Soviets, some supported by the PRC (the "good communists") and some supported by the US (and loosely allied with the PRC groups).
If anyone's interested, there was a posting on one of the t2k yahoo groups with a list of all the ethnic minorities in the PRC.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Twi2000/message/2533
BTW, IRL Uighurs have been found fighting in Afghanistan for the Taliban, Bosnia and Kashimir. Also, one of the Uighur groups, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) has been added to the U.S. Dept of State terrorist list. Some contend that the addition was for political reasons (to gain PRC support for the war on terrorism), but two members were caught in Kyrgyzstan in an attempt to blow up the U.S. embassy.
http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/etim.cfm
http://english.pravda.ru/accidents/2001/08/26/13363.html
********************
shrike6 01-25-2004, 01:04 PM Orrin, first off were talking the time period of 1995-96, so those Soviet units haven't rebelled yet.
Number two, I don't see what the State Department Terrorist list has to do with Soviet foreign policy in this timeline. In fact if anything it tends to bolster my point, because I bet the State Department terrorist list back in the 80s was probably chocked full of Soviet sponsored terrorist groups.
Number three, Xinjiang is a part of China. So, I can't see the US getting involved in a purely internal Chinese matter. If they do, it would be to support the Chinese and not to set up some independent state.
Number four, I don't see this huge groundswell of Uighurs supporting China like you do, or joining a Chinese supported group. http://www.taklamakan.org/uighur-l/et_faq_p1b.html#e3
Number five, You're also assuming that the Soviets want an independent East Turkistan state. I don't necessarily see that as the case. The Soviets may very well be supporting the Uighers because its a convienent way to tie down Chinese divisions and when its no longer convienent, "pull the rug out from under the Uighers" and let the Chinese deal with the problem like they have in the past.
Number six, Orrin you say that "Consider that Uighurs have fought in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and also in Chechnya against the Russians." I'm going to extend this arguement to the logical conclusion. No member of the Afghanistan Mujahadeen groups would ever support any type of action against the US since the US supported them in their war against the Soviets, right?
Number seven, Matt, I see where the Syrians, Libyans, PLO, PLPF (Popular front for the Liberstion of Palestine), Abu Nidal, Harakat-i Inqilab-i Islami just to name a few would all hate the Soviets for providing training and support to their governments and organizations.
Number eight, The Contradiction between Nationalists and Islamists in Eurasian Conflict Areas, a very important read
http://www.cc.jyu.fi/~aphamala/pe/2003/chepolen.htm
********************
Matt Wiser 01-25-2004, 04:57 PM Shirke, I'm not talking about the Syrians, Libyans, PLO, PFLP,etc. biting the Soviets. I'm talking about the Islamists that OBL and his crowd represent at the present time. If there was a Soviet incursion into this area, and the Soviets decided to use locals as surrogates, they had better watch out-some of those folks had gone to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets. Fundamentalists would have reason to hate a semi-resurgent USSR in T2K as much as the U.S. in that timeline, just as much as they hate Americans, Russians, Israelis, British, Australians, etc. IRL. Any locals serving the Soviets would have to pass muster by the KGB and the GRU to make sure they don't bite the Soviets later.
********************
Webstral 01-26-2004, 01:35 AM I hadn't planned on having a major Soviet incursion in China's Far West. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the Soviets are only willing to commit so much manpower and materiel to the Sino-Soviet War--at least in 1995. Every division that starts fighting in Central Asia takes material support away from a division in Manchuria. If an army-sized force actually penetrates any distance inside China, it has to be replaced back in Kazakhstan (or another SSR) by an army from somewhere else or from the reserves. Since the Kremlin (Danilov) puts a ceiling on the commitment of troops to the initial invasion, an adventure on China's northwest periphery takes away from the main effort in Manchuria.
The other reason is that there's very little of real import out there. Test sites and launch facilities are not the same as Manchurian-style mineral wealth, agricultural output, and industrial capability. Again, we should remember that the Sino-Soviet War is supposed to have been done within sixty days. The Soviets start the war with the intent of using the situation in Manchuria to force the PRC to the bargaining table. Threatening facilities in China's hinterlands might have some value, but I'm writing my version such that the Soviets conclude it is better to mass their assets in the theater where the decision will be made.
Another reason for keeping Soviet forces in Central Asia on the Soviet side of border is that the Chinese have to guard against them anyway. A Soviet army or two conducting maneuvers on their side of border represents a threat that will tie down at least an equivalent number of Chinese divisions. If the Soviets can tie down a substantial number of Chinese troops without committing themselves to active combat away from the Far Eastern TVD, I thin they will.
Come November 1995, everything changes. What was a short-term medium-scale war has just turned into a much bigger and longer affair. At this point, the Soviets step up their efforts to foment local insurrection. Several already have talked about this above, so I won't repeat their remarks here. Suffice to say that the supply of small arms, mortars, and shoulder-fired missiles to local malcontents, along with the judicious use of Spetznaz, will cause the PRC some problems during the Winter War and afterwards.
Of course, the flow of small arms and other equipment into the hands of various non-Russian peoples in Central Asia comes back to haunt the Soviets in 1998. Thereafter, the locals in Central Asia show an increasing tendency towards self-rule, aided in no small way by the survivors of the brutal Chinese crack-downs in China's Far West.
Webstral
********************