Able Archer 1983??

[Mohoender]

I was thinking of it as an alternative timeline.

Did anyone of you managed to do some research on it?

What if spys from both sides had fallen to it as their higer command did?

What if Ronald Reagan had been part of it and what if it had effectively gone wrong?

Anyones ideas?

[kato13]

Able Archer 83

Wikipedia assist.

[Cpl. Kalkwarf]

I was thinking of it as an alternative timeline.

Did anyone of you managed to do some research on it?

What if spys from both sides had fallen to it as their higer command did?

What if Ronald Reagan had been part of it and what if it had effectively gone wrong?

Anyones ideas?

I was toying around with this very Idea of a new campaign, calling it twilight 1984. I was active duty Marine Corps at the time. Some of us on the lower end thought it was real too. There was an one time where we were readied and I remember some of us were talking amongst ourselves that we would probably never see home again. A very somber time for a young corporal I was back then.

I really should of kept a diary.

[Mohoender]

I really should of kept a diary.

That is something we all should do and forget to do. Never too late.:)

[simonmark6]

This is quite scary, in mid October 1983 my band were rehearsing for the National Brass Band Chanpionships. We were rehearsing in the Chelsea Barracks and as we were leaving a squadie was changing the Bikini Alert from, I think, something to yellow. I was a bit worried because I thought it meant we were near to a nuclear war. I told our conductor who told me to shut up and concentrate on the contest. he said that if the world was going to end we might as well be the Champion band....

I suppose it was just a part of the build up to the drill.

[perardua]

I miss the Bikini State signs we used to have all over the place. They were much brighter than those boring threat level signs we have now.

[pmulcahy11b]

Well, on the bad side, it could have led to the end of the world as we know it. On the good side, if the balloon had gone up, I might have gotten the commission I was otherwise denied...:p

I wonder if SGM Mills (one of my ROTC instructors) knew about all that. He had pipelines into just about everywhere in the armed forces, including those in other countries -- it was a benefit of being in the special ops community for so long.

[pmulcahy11b]

Able Archer 83

Wikipedia assist.

How do you put a link into this forum without having to copy and paste a long URL?

[Fusilier]

I was a bit worried because I thought it meant we were near to a nuclear war. I told our conductor who told me to shut up and concentrate on the contest. he said that if the world was going to end we might as well be the Champion band....

That's awesome. I love it.

[kato13]

How do you put a link into this forum without having to copy and paste a long URL?


There are a several of ways to make links

Just typing anything with http:// or www at the beginning will make a long link you described.

To make a link with a title you need to do the following
CNN website (www.cnn.com)
e.g. CNN website (www.cnn.com)

If you are using the standard message creation window (the one with all the selectable options and the Smilies to the right look for this image http://forum.juhlin.com/images/editor/createlink.gif it will help you make a link.

If you are not using that editor you can select it under the User CP -> Edit Options ->Message Editor Interface

Overall that is kinda complicated so for english wikipedia results I created the following
United States
e.g. United States
where whatever you put inside the wiki tag will be what comes after http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ (spaces will convert to underscores)

hope that helps.

[pmulcahy11b]

Thanks, Kato. I'll give it a try next time I post a link.

[Adm.Lee]

Well, on the bad side, it could have led to the end of the world as we know it. On the good side, if the balloon had gone up, I might have gotten the commission I was otherwise denied...:p

I wonder if SGM Mills (one of my ROTC instructors) knew about all that. He had pipelines into just about everywhere in the armed forces, including those in other countries -- it was a benefit of being in the special ops community for so long.

As I understand it, it was only the Kremlin that thought the West was going to attack in October 1983, and was getting ready to push the button. Outside of there, it was only a normal NATO exercise. The West was oblivious to the whole scare for years.

[TiggerCCW UK]

Makes me wonder - if things had gone wrong would units have realised in time that actual orders were being given, rather than just commands in the exercise?

[Mohoender]

Makes me wonder - if things had gone wrong would units have realised in time that actual orders were being given, rather than just commands in the exercise?

Exactly the issue. Especially as western systems were only faking it while soviet ones were ready to launch. Apparently, until very recently the West completely ignored that fact.

From what I have seen. The soviets had deployed their SS-20, they had readied to launch around 350 long range missiles (silos) and their subs had been deployed in firing position with none of the NATO subs to monitor them.

IMO, it could have been a disaster. They had eight minuted to react only after the first missile launch. I don't expect NATO command to miss the attack entirely but I wouldn't be surprised to have them reacting late. As a result, what could have been the strategic consequences. One important point at that time was the much lower efficiency of the surveillance systems.

[Mohoender]

Of course, this is only idea and I intend it to be no more than a possible starting point for our thinkings. Feel free to critics, change and ammend it. I did that in less than hour and it must ne full of mistakes.;)

Robert McFarlane doesn't act as he did and Able Archer proceeds as planned initially. As a result, Ronald Reagan, G.W. Bush, Casper Weinberger, Margret Thatcher and Helmut Kohl don't cancel their participation into it.

In the meantime, the Soviets put their forces under full alert as it had been the case:
- SS-20s are put in firing position.
- 350-500 of the long range missiles (including most SS-18 Satan) are readied to launch.
- Strategic bombers is put under full alert.
- Submarines are deployed in their firing position under the arctic.
- Conventional forces are left out of it. Disposition are made to recall everyone as soon as possible but these forces continue to ignore what is going on. Nevertheless, permission in Eastern Europe are cancelled.

Upon 11 of november, the various head of states play their role and it increase soviet paranoya once again. Andropov still heistates but he is declared inapt by the two other men with authority to launch the missiles and the preemptive strike is finally launched not long before the end of Able Archer.

About 2 minutes after the missile launch, one of the NATO operators warn of the attack. Sadly, the officer in charge doesn't report it immediately and ask for confirmation. When confirmation finally comes, the first SS-20s fall onto Belgium, Germany, Netherlands and UK.

NATO high command kind of freezes but reaction is not delayed anymore. Nevertheless, the time lost will prove critical. The strategic air command is taken with its pants down and destroyed, only a handful of missiles are launched and much of the naval forces are destroyed (including several of the US carriers). However, realizing what is going on various submarine commanders at sea launch their missile (The Soviets will not escape unharmed).

In the Pact of Warsaw, no more than 50 targets have been hit and very few cities have been destroyed. In the West, the situation is much more terrible. US, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Guam, Haiti, Japan, Netherlands and UK have been hit (along with several american bases in other NATO countries):
- Most major targets have been destroyed (including NORAD and most communication centers within and outside of US)
- Several major cities have been destroyed and civilan casualties are very high (especially in UK and Netherlands).
- The US and Royal navies took a terrible blow but surviving forces are on the move to meet the almost intact Soviet Navy.
- However, as they were part of Able Archer, Margret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan survived, enabling NATO to react more quickly than expected.

On the next day (12 of november), Soviets conventional forces are put onto full alert everywhere and several units already cross the border into Western Germany. NATO conventional forces (not wiped out by the strategic strike) face it with bravery. While dramatically outnumbered, they delay Soviet forces on several occasions.

On that same day, much to Soviet dismay, all NATO/ANZUS members answer the US call for help and declare war to the Soviet Union. Immediately, France (Its president not being part of Able Archer, the country has been spared by the innitial soviet strike. Moreover, the Soviets had expected France to declare neutrality), launch a nuclear strike of its own as the country has been put into full alert since the first SS-20 explosion within Germany.
- The two French SSBN at sea launch all their missiles toward the western part of the Soviet Union while the remaining three (along with the Fleet) are put to sea.
- The missiles on the "Plateau d'Albion" are also launched toward their vairous targets in Eastern Europe.
- The French army is on the move to join the battle and the 5 regiments equipped with Pluton Missiles are already on the move.
- Mirage IV perfom their first deep penetration raids. Being the only supersonic strategic bombers in the world, most return from their mission (only three are lost).

In the meantime, the Turkish air force conducts several nuclear tactical strikes in southern Russia, in the Caucasus and as far as Central Asia. Losses are very important but several targets are hit.

On november 13 (in view of the huge amount casualties on both sides), the major nuclear exchange already dries up and the conflict becomes increasingly conventional, outside of nuclear tactical strikes.

Within the Pact, several commanders as well as a number of countries already realize that this results from a terrible mistakes and desertion in some units increase quickly, slowing the offensive and allowing more NATO units to reach the front.

In the Middle East, while Israel remains involved in Lebanon and while Iran-Iraq war continues, the Arab countries (including Egypt again) launch a conflict of their own against Israel.

In Asia, on november 17, seeing an oportunity, China declares war on Russia. Chaos increases immediately as North Korea and Vietnam ally themselves with Russia.

In Africa and Latin America, chaos grows fast while Fidel Castro declares neutrality and expel the Soviet troops from the island.

Within a week, the world has been set ablaze and people are dragged into a war that they never wanted.

Einstein writing might prove to be true: “I do not know how the third World War will be fought, but I can tell you what they will use in the Fourth – rocks!”

Enjoy.:)

[Dog 6]

I like it. very good work! only one thing I've seen is the Mirage IV is not only supersonic strategic bombers in the world, the US B-1 and FB-111's are both supersonic, other then that I loved it. keep up the good work ! :)

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I don't think the B-1 was in service before the mid-1980s but for the early-1980s timeline it could easily be replaced with the USN's A-5 Vigilante.
From memory I think the US has at least one or two aircraft capable of the supersonic strategic bomber role since the 1960s (such as the B-58 Hustler) and the Soviets had the Tu-22 from about the same time
It's entirely possible the USAF might have some B-58 aircraft in storage that they could reactivate for the 1983 timeline (I think they went out of service in 1970)

[Dog 6]

your right

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-1_Lancer

Introduction 1 October 1986



so that only leaves the FB-111

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FB-111#FB-111A.2FF-111G

[Mohoender]

I like it. very good work! only one thing I've seen is the Mirage IV is not only supersonic strategic bombers in the world, the US B-1 and FB-111's are both supersonic, other then that I loved it. keep up the good work ! :)

Right for the FB-111. I agree also for the B-1 but I don't consider it to be in the same class. In fact, I made two mistakes: forgot the FB-111 and I should have said mach 2-class (I don't know if that's how you say it in english:o).

Shame and appologies. By the way, when I wrote that the Strategic command was taken its pant's off, I didn't count the FB-111 and nuclear bombs deployed abroad. I let that to our US members (they'll know more than I do).

Rough Draft.:)

[Mohoender]

I don't think the B-1 was in service before the mid-1980s but for the early-1980s timeline it could easily be replaced with the USN's A-5 Vigilante.
From memory I think the US has at least one or two aircraft capable of the supersonic strategic bomber role since the 1960s (such as the B-58 Hustler) and the Soviets had the Tu-22 from about the same time
It's entirely possible the USAF might have some B-58 aircraft in storage that they could reactivate for the 1983 timeline (I think they went out of service in 1970)

Forgot about these (memory malfunction, I'll be 40 this year, this must explain that:D). Nice addition. I didn't count the Tu-22 on purpose, as it was the oponent.

[Mohoender]

Seems that the A-5 was taken out by 1980 but I could well see a number of them being refurbished.

[Mohoender]

If anyone has some information on the nuclear sharing policy that could be interesting too.

Here is the wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

[Targan]

In the meantime, the Turkish air force conducts several nuclear tactical strikes in southern Russia, in the Caucasus and as far as Central Asia.)

Turkey has nukes?

[Adm.Lee]

B-58s and A-5s won't be refurbished in time for this event, unless you believe that the Carter and Reagan Administrations were working together to plan this nuclear war.

[pmulcahy11b]

B-58s and A-5s won't be refurbished in time for this event, unless you believe that the Carter and Reagan Administrations were working together to plan this nuclear war.

Ditto that for the B-1A original version.

I can't imagine the Carter and Reagan administrations working together on anything, and you'd also have to assume that Carter knew Reagan would be elected president in 1980 -- until halfway through the primaries, that was far from certain.

[Mohoender]

Turkey has nukes?

At the time: Canada, Turkey, Italy, Germany (funny isn't it?), Greece... Canada went out of it in 1984 (now I know why I like Canadian so much), Greece was out only by 2001.

[Mohoender]

B-58s and A-5s won't be refurbished in time for this event, unless you believe that the Carter and Reagan Administrations were working together to plan this nuclear war.

I was only thinking of the A-5 (phased out in 1980). And no I don't think that.

[pmulcahy11b]

Turkey has nukes?

More like there were nukes in Turkey; the nukes belonged to the US. We had nukes spread far and wide over the globe in the past.

[Graebarde]

Forgot about these (memory malfunction, I'll be 40 this year, this must explain that:D).

Pup!!!! :D

[pmulcahy11b]

Pup!!!! :D

I second that!!!

[pmulcahy11b]

B-58s and A-5s won't be refurbished in time for this event, unless you believe that the Carter and Reagan Administrations were working together to plan this nuclear war.

It would make for an interesting conspiracy theory for a T2K scenario. :eek:

[Mohoender]

More like there were nukes in Turkey; the nukes belonged to the US. We had nukes spread far and wide over the globe in the past.

That's why I like to know more. Do you know anything on the storage procedures. For Turkey, I think I have read that 1/3 of the nukes stationed in Turkey were to be used by the Turkish air force.

Where they stored with these directly used by US? Under US guard or Turkish guard?...

[Graebarde]

That's why I like to know more. Do you know anything on the storage procedures. For Turkey, I think I have read that 1/3 of the nukes stationed in Turkey were to be used by the Turkish air force.

Where they stored with these directly used by US? Under US guard or Turkish guard?...

All NUKES on NATO soil, except for France and UK, were under custodial care of the US. The weapons belonged to the US. Access to them was controlled by the US. A team of custodians were at each storage site. IIRC in Germany, the sites where 'German' Nukes were stored were guarded by the BW. At the US APS they were guarded by a company of MP (Security). I think the nukes in Turkey were under USAF control, perhaps some Turkish guards???, but the release was US.

Same way in other places around the world where the US had nuclear weapons for use by host nations in last ditch operations. [or so I have been told ;)]

[Marc]

Nice work, Mo. Hmmmm… Always looking fort he minimum excuse to send civilization to hell? :D

Talking about “hot spots” in the cold war period: Vasili Arkhipov (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasili_Alexandrovich_Arkhipov)

[Spoe]

More like there were nukes in Turkey; the nukes belonged to the US. We had nukes spread far and wide over the globe in the past.

And, some of the other NATO air forces had the capability to deliver those US nukes from their aircraft.

[Raellus]

I just finished watching Soviet War Scare 1983 on the History Channel (my program guide said it originally aired in 2010) and wow, did it bring back a lot of thoughts and emotions for me. I'm almost shaking as I write this.

I was 9 in '83, and full of fear- strangers, drugs, divorce, ghosts, bees, and most of all, nuclear war. I had no idea how close we came to that last one. The show did a good job of explaining how a whole bunch of incidents from that year- most of which I remember knowing about- were tied together in a web of suspicion and tension that nearly led to a strategic Soviet nuclear strike on the west.

I only recently heard anything about Able Archer. I had no cluse that a Soviet launch-warning sattelite reported five false positive American ICBM launches in early '83. The other stuff I knew about but, although worrisome at the time, seemed more or less unrelated to a 9-year-old kid. How wrong I was.


The deployment of Pershing IIs in W. Germany- with a 12 minute launch to impact time, the PII had the Soviets worried about a decapitation strike

The Soviet shoot-down of a S. Korean 747- the Soviets thought Reagan would use this as a pretext to launch a first strike

The Beirut Marine barracks bombing- increased security at U.S. military bases worldwide was interpreted as preparation for war

The Grenada invasion- led to increased encrypted signals between Thatcher (the Brits weren't happy that the U.S. went into Grenada without consulting them first) and Reagan, which the Soviets suspected to be coordination of a NATO first-strike.


Thank God for Topaz, the Soviet [German] agent in NATO whose reports encouraged restraint.

This has probably all been discussed here already, but I just had to get it out.

[pmulcahy11b]

You know what really sucks? In 1983 I was an MS 1 (Freshman) in ROTC as UTSA, and we didn't hear a damn thing about Able Archer. Nothing. Wasn't in the papers, magazines, mil reports...I'll bet our instructors and the MS 4s knew, but us plebes were mushrooms!

[weswood]

I graduated high school in '83, I was too stoned most of that year to remember much. I remember the Korean plane getting shot down and the Beruit bombing and Grenada, but just vaguely.

Did no one advise the USSR we were going to be doing this exercise? Seems to me that would have been a good idea.

[Raellus]

Did no one advise the USSR we were going to be doing this exercise? Seems to me that would have been a good idea.

They thought it was a cover for a real attack. Paranoia will destroy ya.

And (according to the show) it was just a staff excercise- a bunch of NATO brass and signals units only, no field manouvers. I was imagining something more concrete, like Reforger. The Soviets were listening in and interpreting the game turns as actual orders.

[Panther Al]

I just finished watching Soviet War Scare 1983 on the History Channel (my program guide said it originally aired in 2010) and wow, did it bring back a lot of thoughts and emotions for me. I'm almost shaking as I write this.

I was 9 in '83, and full of fear- strangers, drugs, divorce, ghosts, bees, and most of all, nuclear war. I had no idea how close we came to that last one. The show did a good job of explaining how a whole bunch of incidents from that year- most of which I remember knowing about- were tied together in a web of suspicion and tension that nearly led to a strategic Soviet nuclear strike on the west.

I only recently heard anything about Able Archer. I had no cluse that a Soviet launch-warning sattelite reported five false positive American ICBM launches in early '83. The other stuff I knew about but, although worrisome at the time, seemed more or less unrelated to a 9-year-old kid. How wrong I was.


The deployment of Pershing IIs in W. Germany- with a 12 minute launch to impact time, the PII had the Soviets worried about a decapitation strike

The Soviet shoot-down of a S. Korean 747- the Soviets thought Reagan would use this as a pretext to launch a first strike

The Beirut Marine barracks bombing- increased security at U.S. military bases worldwide was interpreted as preparation for war

The Grenada invasion- led to increased encrypted signals between Thatcher (the Brits weren't happy that the U.S. went into Grenada without consulting them first) and Reagan, which the Soviets suspected to be coordination of a NATO first-strike.


Thank God for Topaz, the Soviet [German] agent in NATO whose reports encouraged restraint.

This has probably all been discussed here already, but I just had to get it out.


Topaz is one of those agents that will never ever get anything positive happening for him because he was caught. Yet those reports he sent out did manage to keep a lid on things - so I guess the world owes him a beer or two.

[mikeo80]

Pup!!!! :D

Mere Child!!!

My $0.02

Mike