A Bad Thought [Thunder Empire]

[Webstral]

I was thinking about the relationship between SAMAD (Southern Arizona Military Administrative District) [Thunder Empire] and the gangs & warlords in Phoenix the other day, and I had a horrible thought. Throughout 1999 and 2000, Fort Huachuca doesn’t have anything like the manpower to intervene in Phoenix. The task force missions conducted throughout this timeframe are sufficient to conduct search-and-destroy missions throughout large parts of Arizona in support of surviving municipalities. Liberating parts of Phoenix or establishing a logistical base is out of the question.

And yet, SAMAD is going to need some things from Phoenix. There’s a huge need for bicycles, tires, spare parts of every description, machines, and so forth. It’s only natural that Huachuca will want to get hold of some of these items by barter with the local survivors in Phoenix. Once some sort of trade relationship is established, it’s natural for the arrangement to grow quickly. The gangs and warlords want food, medicines, and items they can’t make for themselves and can’t salvage. Some warlord is going to realize that ongoing access to goods from SAMAD is better than a once-off smash-and-grab of a trade mission from SAMAD. Said warlord might even seek out a trade arrangement with SAMAD, offering a location, security, and some sort of contract spelling out the responsibilities of each side.

This warlord is not necessarily going to be a good man. He may, in fact, be the Phoenician Baron Czarny. Doing business with him serves SAMAD’s short-term interests. However, it should be obvious that the warlord is going to use whatever he gains from the relationship to bring as much of Phoenix under his control as possible. Some of the other surviving groups in the Valley of the Sun consist of decent people who will be killed or enslaved as a result of the warlord’s expansion. Originally, I conceived of Huachuca as seeing this fact as a lamentable but unavoidable cost of doing business. Now I’m wondering if this isn’t part of a cold calculation on the part of the Huachuca command. If Phoenix, or a large part thereof, has been united under the banner of a single warlord, then a decapitation stroke can bring the whole establishment into Huachuca’s hands at some future date. I’d expect this of the Soviets, but envisioning the Americans at Huachuca thinking this way puts a bad taste in my mouth. Yet, there is an unavoidable logic to it.


Webstral

[Raellus]

This could create some very intriguing scenarios and adventure seeds in the Phoenix area. This summer, I read a book about an undercover AFT agent who infiltrated the AZ Hells Angels (No Angel, by Jay Dobins) and it strikes me that SAMAD would probably want to infiltrate the Phoenix warlord's organization in a like fashion, both to gain intel and to undermine and disrupt his operations. This could fun to play out.

The PCs would have the unenviable dilema of if/when/and how to intervene knowing that attempting to do so could blow their cover and get them killed. On the other hand, what do they do when the warlord's thugs plan to massacre a settlement or enslave another (that sort of thing)- Let it happen and lose their souls? Try something subtle and hope for the best? Intervene and blow their cover and any chance of a bigger intel haul?

[kalos72]

When it comes to marauders, I think the ends justify the means regardless.

I would think they would try to set a 2nd up first though...to fill the power vacuum.

[Targan]

This could create some very intriguing scenarios and adventure seeds in the Phoenix area. This summer, I read a book about an undercover AFT agent who infiltrated the AZ Hells Angels (No Angel, by Jay Dobins) and it strikes me that SAMAD would probably want to infiltrate the Phoenix warlord's organization in a like fashion, both to gain intel and to undermine and disrupt his operations.

I've read that book! That undercover cop must have had some seriously big gonads to do what he did.

If Phoenix, or a large part thereof, has been united under the banner of a single warlord, then a decapitation stroke can bring the whole establishment into Huachuca’s hands at some future date.
(Emphasis inserted by me). I think the when of it would be important, at least as important as the mindset and morality of the commander making the decision. Getting the timing wrong could result in there being no "establishment" to bring into Fort Huachuca's hands, or conversely could result in the Phoenix situation being way too much to handle if the warlords managed to get their sh*t together at the same time as Fort Huachuca suffered setbacks in their recovery plans.

Who knows, in late 2001 or beyond Fort Huachuca might get materiel or manpower assistance from MilGov again? Unlikely in the short term I know as MilGov has a lot on its plate and Arizona is very isolated but MilGov might come to the conclusion that assisting and sweet talking SAMAD is a good investment. If MilGov completely ignores SAMAD it will have no say in how things turn out in AZ. Assisting SAMAD would at least open some doors in the future. And if SAMAD received a few thousand reasonably well equipped European Theatre vets in 2002 gaining control of useful parts of metropolitan Phoenix could be a whole lot easier.

Love your work on SAMAD Web. My problem is that my knowledge of AZ is sketchy at best. I'm off to re-read your works in the archive again in case what I've posted today has already been covered and made redundant.

[Raellus]

I live in southern Arizona, just north of Tucson. I drive through Twin Peaks pass (described as a battle site in one of Web's stories) 5 days a week.

I would think SAMAD would need to control the 1-10 as far north as the 1-8 junction near Casa Grande. That would keep its lines of communication with S. California open (keeping it clear of Mexican army units, marauder gangs, and bandidos is another issue). That would, in my mind, give SAMAD a reason to actively oppose any large marauder groups in Phoenix, assuming said groups also had designs on controlling the junction area. I can see such groups running "tolls" and such.

On a related note, with a presence in Tucson, the I-10 east to New Mexico (or El Paso on highway signs- poor New Mexico gets no love) should be within SAMAD's zone of control.

[Webstral]

Targan, thank you kindly for the vote of confidence.

Raellus, I'm of like mind about the importance of controlling Casa Grande. I haven't figured out what kind of presence to put there, though. I'm leaning towards putting a battalion task force there once the manpower for this sort of thing exists. It might be 1999 before there's much more than a company strong point there, given the need to keep the border between Nogales and Naco fortified at the main crossing points and patrolled throughout the area between.

A powerful presence at Casa Grande acts as an obstacle for any major Mexican Army thrust up I-8 from Yuma and can serve to deter the more aggressive or adventuresome gangs from Phoenix. I'm picturing the same sort of arrangement as Nogales and Bisbee: a complex of rammed earth bunkers, covered communications trenches, covered firing positions for the mortars and (later) the homemade MRL. The lot would be supported by rammed earth/concrete workshops with substantial earth covering. Labor would come from EPW, Mexican refugees, and criminals serving their sentences. Battalions would rotate through the Casa Grande position on a regular basis.

Casa Grande, by the way, would make an excellent base for LRS operating in the Phoenix area. If necessary, a motorized rescue mission could be sent out from Casa Grande and be in southern Phoenix in 90 minutes or so. Motorized insertion into patrol areas would be possible, though obviously this is a risky maneuver.

I agree that a similar strong point would be desirable along I-10 approaching the New Mexico border, although a battalion might not be necessary. The Mexican Army is a lot weaker in that direction. It seems that Tercio Ejercito pretty much gets put on the back burner after the Summer 1998 campaign season.

All of this underscores the main reason why Fort Huachuca does comparatively little to bring much Arizona under control until 2001. Given the need to keep a battalion at Nogales, another one at Bisbee, one at Casa Grande, a small force at or near Douglas, forces patrolling the interior, forces patrolling the border, forces in Tucson, and a reserve at Fort Huachuca itself, there just aren't the rifles to do much elsewhere until 3rd Brigade is trained up and ready to take over some of the jobs being done by 111th Brigade.

Webstral

[Rainbow Six]

Web, let me preface my comments by stating that I also thoroughly enjoy your work on SAMAD. I admire your skill in painting a picture with words. Also like Targan, I know next to nothing about the State of Arizona, so comments here can be taken in a general sense.

I would agree that the SAMAD leadership would face a huge moral and ethical dilemma in choosing whether or not to trade with any of the Phoenix Warlords. I'd imagine there are sound rational and logical reasons for both sides of the argument (if anything there are probably more reasons in favour of establishing a non aggresive relationship with the Phoenix gangs than against - presumably SAMAD has much to lose and little to gain by becoming involved in a fight it lacks the resources to adequately prosecute?).

Morally and ethically, I think it's a whole different ballgame. However, how much of an influence would morals and / or ethics have four years in to the Twilight War? After all, morals and ethics do not put food on the table (or provide a source of manufactured goods, raw materials, etc, etc).

Also, whilst trade with marauders may be a neccessary evil short term, I wonder what consideration Huachuca's leadership would give to the long term in reaching a final decision? If SAMAD trading with a Warlord (or Warlords) does serve to make that Warlord stronger, is SAMAD actually helping him (or her) to reach a position where they are able to pose a serious threat to Huachuca's long term survival as Targan mentioned in his post? Web, do you envisage a situation where any of the Warlords, either individually or acting together, would ever be strong enough to seriously challenge SAMAD? If not then this may be a moot point.

With regard to the subject of a decapitation stroke, if I'm understanding you correctly this would be aimed at said Warlord (and perhaps his / her inner circle), I think I would subscribe to the theory that the end justified the means (although I think a lot of careful thought would need to go into any operation beforehand to ensure "the end" was as carefully defined as possible, particularly with regard to who takes the leader's place - it would seem futile to go to the effort of mounting such an operation merely to replace one despot with another, potentially worse despot). Personally, I think the morally unpalatable part might revolve more around the subsequent consequences of SAMAD's actions and any "collateral damage"...for example, if, following the death of their leader, surviving gang members embark on a killing spree, slaughtering innocent Phoenix residents in revenge.

Raellus is spot on - this could create a multitude of scenarios and adventure seeds for anyone wishing to run a campaign in the area.

[Webstral]

Rainbow, thank you kindly for your favorable review of my work. I don’t picture the gangs of Phoenix ever being able to threaten SAMAD. However, the Huachuca leadership doesn’t know what I know. The prospect of a Valley of the Sun united under a single banner of black and red is one that makes the Huachucans distinctly unhappy, but by mid-1999 the command begins to get the idea that even a Valley of the Sun united under a Phoenician Baron Czarny would be unable to offer a major threat.

I certainly don’t mean to imply that the Phoenicians aren’t dangerous. The situation in greater Phoenix rather resembles a drier, warmer, more diffuse version of the situation on Manhattan in Armies of the Night. There are various small communities scattered throughout the Valley of the Sun, plus a few major warlord-style governments that fit the overall description of the Mayor’s and the Duke’s organizations. Then, of course, there are the armies of the night. A lot of fighters develop good urban combat skills very quickly. The cream rises to the top, so to speak. Even in early 2001 it would be very costly for 111th Brigade to attempt to pacify the Valley of the Sun with its own strength.

However, skill in metro Phoenix does not equate to skill on the open field. Urban combat is a distinctly different skill than combat in other arenas. This is especially true when the weapons being used by the combatants tend to be handguns, shotguns, melee weapons, improved thrown explosives, and improvised projectile weapons like crossbows. A built-up environment rewards some tactics and penalized others. Less well-developed environments, like the terrain separating Phoenix and Tucson, reward and penalize differently. In the city, the troops of 111th Brigade operate at a marginal advantage—especially at night and against an enemy who knows the lay of the land, so to speak. Outside the city, the immense advantage in firepower possessed by 111th Brigade vis-Ã*-vis any or all of the Phoenicians would bring a speedy conclusion to any encounter.

It is conceivable that some Phoenician combatants could use the hilly and mountainous terrain east and west of I-10 to get within a single night’s march of Casa Grande or bypass Casa Grande to raid Tucson. This would be a challenging undertaking for a force large enough to tackle Casa Grande, though. Moreover, a motorized response force would be dispatched from Tucson very quickly. The attackers would have to have very impressive numbers if they intended to accomplish anything. In any event, once the sun came up the weight of firepower from the 111th would decide the issue, in all likelihood.

Early on, some of the MI folks become concerned about just what a Phoenician Czarny could put together if he did unify the Valley of the Sun. The conclusion is that his ability to manufacture heavy weapons would be very limited or nonexistent for the foreseeable future. The factories of Phoenix are lying disused. A Phoenician Czarny would not have access to expertise to reopen them. The whole industrial infrastructure of Phoenix has been ruined, and putting it back together would be beyond a Phoenician Czarny without massive outside aid. Some cottage industry would be possible, but the overall picture would remain one of very tough and seasoned but under-equipped and poorly-supported troops with no appreciable capacity for power projection.

The timing and execution of a decapitation stroke are major issues. As of April 1, 2001 these issues have not been resolved. Fortunately, there is no single leader on the verge of uniting the Valley of the Sun.

Webstral

[Adm.Lee]

One could always try the Byzantine strategy of using warlords against one another. If you need stuff from Phoenix, are all of those things under just one warlords' control? What if you traded with Warlord A one week, and Warlord B the next month, and so on? It sounds needlessly complex, but it might avoid the dilemma of making Warlord A so powerful that he can dominate the region.

It could also backfire horribly, if Warlord C takes out both A and B, and refuses to deal with SAMAD at all. Especially if A and B wear themselves out fighting over resources to trade with SAMAD.

[kalos72]

Its funny you mention Armies of the Night as thats my setting... :)

I was thinking bout your scenario as I waited for my wife to get out of the DMV today.

What type of numbers are we talking bout here? Both yours and theirs? What type of firepower do you have? Do you have solid replaceable supplies of mortar ammo? Do you have extra food production that might be used to ply the locals towards either a revolt or just a rising to assist you?

I would think considering you have some decent artillery and maybe some armor you can take them out one at a time. Think of the attack on the 78th as it pulled out of NYC.

Hey warlord A, there is a cache of gasoline at point b 2 miles out from the city you should go get some. :)

In most of the situations in a T2K environment having just the support of artillery and some decent mobility/armor you should be able to tackle all but the most organized marauder groups as long as they dont overwhelm you with numbers.

[Webstral]

Kalos,

I’ll try to answer your questions briefly and succinctly, although doing so does not come naturally to me.

By 2000, there are about 75,000 survivors distributed throughout the Valley of the Sun. This represents in the vicinity of a 95% drop in population from pre-Exchange levels. Sizeable numbers have fled, but there’s no way around the fact that much more than half are dead.

By 2000, there are about 400,000 survivors in SAMAD. This represents about a 15% drop from pre-Exchange levels. Sizeable numbers of the pre-Exchange populace are dead, but many of them have been replaced by refugees from Phoenix and elsewhere in the state.

Gangs and warlords in the Valley of the Sun are equipped and organized similarly to their counterparts on Manhattan. For a TO&E of 111th Brigade, I’ll refer you to the archives. The 111th has reserves of ammunition for its weapons, plus the ability to manufacture more. By Twilight: 2000 standards, both quantity and quality are acceptable, though not lavish. The larger warlord governments in Phoenix probably have some capacity for refilling small arms ammunition. One or two might even have a gunsmith who can repair or construct firearms. Beyond that, though, the medieval realities of the situation prevail.

Artillery and armor certainly are helpful and useful assets, though it’s dangerous to overestimate their value in an urban environment. Thomason hasn’t sent them into Phoenix for a couple of reasons. First, and foremost, is the Mexicans. The ongoing threat from the south has kept Thomason focused on training first the 111th Brigade and second 3rd Brigade (Arizona State Guard). The plan all along has been to send 111th Brigade out of SAMAD only when 3rd Brigade was capable of providing security in the absence of the main force. As one can imagine in the Twilight: 2000 world, bringing 3rd Brigade up to speed has been a time-consuming process. Had the Second Mexican Civil War not broken out, resulting in Sonora Army withdrawing to southern Sonora and Second Mexican Army taking control along the Arizona border, it might have been some time yet before Thomason felt comfortable sending the entire 111th north. So while the idea of dividing and conquering is a good one, Thomason wasn’t ready to try it until he had forces in hand that could secure SAMAD.


Webstral

[HorseSoldier]

If Phoenix, or a large part thereof, has been united under the banner of a single warlord, then a decapitation stroke can bring the whole establishment into Huachuca’s hands at some future date. I’d expect this of the Soviets, but envisioning the Americans at Huachuca thinking this way puts a bad taste in my mouth. Yet, there is an unavoidable logic to it.

Well, the forces at Huachuca are going to be pretty heavily endowed with folks from various MI career fields. I'd think as soon as they realize there is a warlord there, cloak and dagger contingency plans are flying fast and furious.

[kalos72]

Ill check the archives...always love reading your posts! :)

The idea would be to draw them out or box them in.

Side note, how far away are the Mexicans? Some staged attacks pushing the two opposing forces towards one another might be worth a look.

[Webstral]

Horse, I agree that reconnaissance and infiltration of the various powers in Phoenix will be goals for the Huachuca command. However, the means will fall far short of the needs for some time. Explaining why takes a bit of doing, but I would be remiss in not trying to summarize some of my other work for this purpose.

The 111th comes within a roll of the dice of being destroyed in mid-1998, along with Fort Huachuca and the various armed bodies in Tucson. I have some numbers somewhere in the archives. Suffice to say that if the Mexicans had thrown in another brigade—perhaps even another battalion—the whole show would have gone differently.

At the same time, Phoenix disintegrates during the summer. Food and fuel run out, and the city melts down. Fires, violence, disease… the word ugly just doesn’t cover it. Surviving government forces yield control of the metropolis area by area. Refugees pour out, only to die of dehydration and heat ailments on the roads. Large armed bands, temporarily united by the conviction that government forces at Luke AFB have the supplies they need to survive, gradually drive government forces back to Luke for a final showdown. Government forces break out and flee to Flagstaff with everything they can carry.

Following an orgy of bloodletting, the Valley of the Sun fragments into something vaguely comparable to the regions of Western Europe after the fall of West Rome. Where water can be made available, food can be grown. Productive land attracts people with arms. The situation in the Valley of the Sun comes to resemble that of Manhattan in many ways.

While Huachuca is rebuilding 111th Brigade, the need for recce all around SAMAD is raised. The LRS effort gets a shot in the arm in late 1998 when a large group of cadre and students from Kirtland AFB (where USAF Special Operations types are trained) makes their way to SAMAD. (The fight in New Mexico has settled into a stalemate by this time, and Albuquerque has gone the way of Phoenix and Las Vegas.) A few law enforcement types know something about undercover operations. Nevertheless, Huachuca is stuck with building a LRS force and espionage force virtually from scratch, albeit with a head start thanks to the presence of a variety of specialists.

In Phoenix, warlords emerge before the battle at Luke AFB. In this context, warlord is simply a stationary bandit who exerts direct control over territory and people. Gangs, in this context, raid and extort without direct control. Infiltrating a warlord’s organization is difficult, though not impossible. This would be a good mission for a group of PCs. Infiltrating a gang would be very difficult, though again not impossible.

The various players in Phoenix quickly learn that Fort Huachuca has survived the opening round of the Second Mexican-American War. A few of the early recce missions end in disaster, which makes everyone aware that Uncle Sam is interested in intervening in the Valley of the Sun. (Very few people in Phoenix distinguish between MilGov and Fort Huachuca.)

Still, there are some operations that could be called cloak-and-dagger. Huachuca opens and maintains a trading post within the turf of one of the bigger players. For the moment, we can consider him the Duke of Phoenix. The Duke benefits by taxing trade and by appearing to have the support of the government. Naturally, he benefits more from trade with SAMAD than anyone else. His agents can collect intelligence from folks coming to trade.

At the same time, though, Huachuca’s agents can make contact with anyone who makes it to the trade post. Arrangements can be made for LRS to meet with smaller parties in other parts of Phoenix. The ability to move supplies this way is rather limited, though. For this reason, the partnership with the Duke is the most important one. When Huachuca is looking for a particular item, the Duke’s folks can provide security for specialized parties who actually find the stuff (like heavy machinery, for which the Duke has no immediate use) and take it away. Naturally, this arrangement does lend itself to some cloak-and-daggerisms.

One way or another, though, liberating the Valley of the Sun is a major undertaking. A logistics base would have to be built and stocked. Casualties would be high. The metropolis would be taken under control a bite at a time, necessitating a long, drawn-out affair lasting several months. Even with the luxury of knocking over one warlord at a time, absorbing one defensive co-op at a time, and exterminating one gang at a time, SAMAD has its work cut out for it in Phoenix.

Kalos, to answer your question the Mexicans are close at hand in April, 2001. Nogales Brigade controls Nogales, which is right across the border. However, by this time the Mexicans aren’t the problem they used to be. Second Mexican Army has gone over to the Constitutionalists (EMC). Now they are Army of California. The EMC have made peace with SAMAD, and they have concluded a cease-fire with MilGov forces in southern California. The EMC is now more concerned with fighting the Nationalists than the Americans. This development has made it possible for Thomason to consider dispatching 111th Brigade to Phoenix for an extended operation while leaving the very much weaker 3rd Brigade on security duty at home. The Mexican OB has more details about how the Mexican Army shakes out in the Second Mexican Civil War.

Webstral

[Targan]

I read on the internet somewhere that Al-Samad is one of the names of Allah in the Qur'an, it means "The Everlasting Sustainer of All". I wonder if that had any influence on the acronym chosen by the Fort Huachuca leadership? There would have to be some Arabic speakers amongst all those MI types, surely?

[kalos72]

That makes sense Web...

But perhaps a few fake 'Phoenix marauder' raids into the Mexican Army HQ would prompt the support for any effort to clear Phoenix at least. If they start to think about needing to take them out before they make any moves against the Nationalists then you have gained an ally there.

Are the industrial zones your looking at within range or do you need to cross their territory to get there? I was thinking perhaps just raiding the area and bringing as much equipment back as possible to the Fort.

[Webstral]

In order for a fraudulent marauder raid against a Mexican Army installation to be credible, the Mexicans would have to believe that Phoenix-based raiders would cross the distance between Phoenix and the nearest Mexican FOB (which would be in the Yuma area, or Nogales), conduct their raid, and make their getaway. While this is not entirely impossible, the Mexicans are far more likely to believe that Fort Huachuca is complicit, if not entirely responsible. Such a raid, even if it were legitimately bandit activity, would be more likely to stir up trouble between the Mexicans and SAMAD.

The industry of Phoenix all lies within someone’s turf. Heavy industrial machinery is not amenable to removal under combat conditions. It is conceivable that an armed convoy could move through a hostile neighborhood (provided that all of the various preconditions for rapid passage are met) on the way in and egress through a different hostile neighborhood. Moving heavy industrial machinery from a factory floor to a waiting fleet of trucks is difficult enough under the best of conditions. Throw in a mass of territorial marauders and/or the troops of a local warlord, and things get decidedly iffy. It’s hard to imagine that any of the operations officers at Fort Huachuca would sign off on such a scheme willingly. Of course, if the industrial site in question is located within the territory of a government—warlord or otherwise—a deal might be made, in which case the risks of ingress and egress might be deemed tolerable.

In fact, I had planned such an operation for PCs, though I haven’t moved beyond the conceptual phase. In a nutshell, word gets to Huachuca that the machinery needed for fabricating large gas bags can be found in Phoenix. Huachuca wants this because MilGov is planning to construct a fleet of airships. Though Colorado Springs could build their own machines, having existing ones made available will greatly accelerate the process of building a fleet of airships. Huachuca wants to seal the breach between themselves and MilGov because there are things SAMAD needs that MilGov, once its remaining enclaves can be linked by air, can provide. The mission for the PCs, then, is to facilitate removal of the machinery in question. The PCs would have great latitude in how to accomplish this mission.

Webstral

[Legbreaker]

In a nutshell, word gets to Huachuca that the machinery needed for fabricating large gas bags can be found in Phoenix.
That's just politics isn't it? ;)

[Webstral]

That's just politics isn't it? ;)

So true.