africa

[kharne07]

hi new to this but i was wondering what everyone thought about the situation would be like in africa.business as usual?

[pmulcahy11b]

Somewhere on this forum is a thread about the situation in Kenya.

[Rainbow Six]

South Africa has come up a couple of times as well...

[Webstral]

Recently, I finished an excellent book called Africa's First World War, which addresses the fighting in the Congo from 1996 (or so) until about 2004. The conditions described for the Congo are pretty good, sans the aid to modern combat provided by foreign aid. There would be less gasoline for vehicles and a diminishing supply of ammo, but the flavor seems about right. Who needs nukes when you have nations that are nations in name only?

Webstral

[Raellus]

First of all, Kharne07, welcome to the boards. Let me take this oppoprtunity to plug my campaign setting/backstory for Kenya.

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=2312

You might also find the following threads helpful/interesting.

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=944

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=499

[Ivan]

This is interesting as I just started a game in the Sudan. I hear the capital is nice this time of year. :D Hi kharne07:p

[helbent4]

kharne,

I think things would slow down a bit in some ways.

Conflict in Africa is at least partially driven by resources (oil, diamonds, rare earths, minerals, timber) and in some areas ideological agitation from Islamists. There would probably be a trickle of trade with the outside world (North America, parts of Europe, even Australia) with weapons being brought in and some resources shipped out, but the "fuel" for many of the fires would be greatly reduced.

However, the political problems won't go away and won't be mitigated by pressure from the outside world (although one could argue such influence does more harm than good). The aid that props up many regimes and prevents a total medical collapse and famine would dry up. I would say that governments would collapse and starvation would be rampant, as well as AIDS-related deaths (because of complications due to malnutrition).

Tony

[Canadian Army]

Welcome to the boards Kharne07. I have been working on a South Africa OOB for sometime here is a rough outline of what I came up with (not a lot of material out there on the SADF).

7 SA Division
By 1985, 7 SA Division mustered 71 Motorized and 82 Mechanized Brigades. 72 Motorized was under command of 8 SA Division and 73 Motorised Brigade had apparently been disbanded. The division took part in numerous training exercises at the SA Army Battle School at Lohatlha in the Northern Cape from 1978. The division’s major exercise was Kwiksilwer, involving 72 Brigade and the divisional headquarters in 1987. The division’s brigades were disbanded in 1992 and the battalions and regiments came to answer directly to the divisional headquarters, the thinking was that these would be grouped into task forces as required. The concept was never put to a serious test. The formation was also renamed 7 SA Division. The division reverted to a more conventional organization from April 1, 1997, when its former units became 73 Brigade, those of 8 SA Division formed 74 Brigade and that of 9 SA Division became 75 Brigade.

7 SA Division Headquarters

17 Signals Group
17 Medical Battalion Group
17 Provost Company

7 Artillery Brigade

7 Locating Regiment
4 Artillery Regiment
10 Air Defense Regiment

7 Engineer Brigade

2 Field Engineer Regiment
19 Engineer Regiment
35 Engineer Support Regiment
1 Construction Engineer Regiment
18 Maintenance Unit
18 Field Workshop, TSC

81 Armored Brigade

1 South African Tank Regiment
1 Special Service Battalion (Armored Car)
2 Special Service Battalion (Armored Car)

73 Motorized Brigade

71 Brigade Headquarters
2 South African Infantry Battalion
4 South African Infantry Battalion
5 South African Infantry Battalion

74 Motorized Brigade

72 Brigade Headquarters
7 South African Infantry Battalion
10 South African Infantry Battalion
14 South African Infantry Battalion

75 Motorized Brigade

46 Brigade Headquarters
15 South African Infantry Battalion
21 South African Infantry Battalion
121 South African Infantry Battalion


8 SA Division
8 SA Division was established as an armored formation on August 1, 1974, consisting of 81 Armored Brigade, 82 Mechanized Brigade and 84 Motorized Brigade. It was, in many respects, a mirror of 7 SA Division. By 1985, 8 SA Division consisted of 81 Armored Brigade, 84 Motorized Brigade and 72 Motorized Brigade. 82 Mechanized Brigade was under command of 7 SA Division. The division’s brigades were disbanded in 1992 and the battalions and regiments came to answer directly to the divisional headquarters, these would be grouped into task forces as required. The formation was also renamed 8 SA Division.

8 SA Division Headquarters

13 Signals Group
44 Medical Battalion Group
18 Provost Company

44 Parachute Brigade

1 Parachute Battalion, 44 Parachute Regiment
2 Parachute Battalion, 44 Parachute Regiment (Reserve Force)
3 Parachute Battalion, 44 Parachute Regiment (Reserve Force)
44 Pathfinder Platoon
101 Air Supply Unit

Task Force Yankee

Task Force Headquarters
33 Mechanized Infantry Battalion Group
6 South African Infantry Battalion

Task Force X-Ray

Task Force Headquarters
61 Mechanized Infantry Battalion Group
1 South African Infantry Battalion
8 South African Infantry Battalion


Special Forces Brigade (Separate)

1 Special Forces Regiment
4 Special Forces Regiment
5 Special Forces Regiment
1 Maintenance Unit


South African Defense Force, Reserve Force

South African Armored Corps

Pretoria Regiment
Natal Mounted Rifles
Regiment President Steyn
Regiment Mooirivier

Armored Car

Umvoti Mounted Rifles
Light Horse Regiment
Regiment Oranjerivier


South African Infantry Corps

Infantry
First City Regiment
Prince Alfred's Guard
Regiment Boland
Regiment Skoonspruit
Internal Stability
Rand Light Infantry
Regiment Oos Rand
Regiment Paul Kruger
Mechanized Infantry
1st Battalion, Regiment de la Rey
1st Battalion, Regiment Northern Transvaal
Cape Town Highlanders
Durban Light Infantry
Regiment Westelike Provincie
Witwatersrand Rifles
Motorized Infantry
Regiment Botha
Regiment Christiaan Beyers
Johannesburg Regiment
South African Irish Regiment
Transvaal Scottish Regiment
Tshwane Regiment
Buffalo Volunteer Rifles
Cape Town Rifles (Duke's)
Durban Regiment
Kimberley Regiment
Natal Carbineers
Regiment Bloemspruit
Regiment Piet Retief


South African Artillery

Cape Field Artillery
Natal Field Artillery
Transvaal Horse Artillery
Regiment Potchefstroom Universiteit
Transvaalse Staatsartillerie
Vrystaatse Artillerie Regiment
Pretoria Highlanders
Cape Garrison Artillery
Regiment Oos Transvaal
Regiment Vaalriver
Cape Garrison Artillery


South African Anti-Aircraft

6 Light Anti-Aircraft Regiment


South African Engineer Corps

3 Field Engineer Regiment
6 Field Engineer Regiment
19 Field Engineer Regiment


Commandos
The South African Commando System is a voluntary, part-time force of the South African Army. Each Commando is responsible for the safeguarding and protection of a specific community (both rural or urban). The Commandos are formally under the authority of the regional commands of the army but are organized and deployed in a tradition similar to that of the National Guard in the United States. Originally volunteers trained for quick-response to local emergencies, they were used to quell unrest during the apartheid era; in the 1990s, Commando units are assigned to guard important installations, such as industrial plants, oil refineries, communication centers, and transportation facilities. Commandos generally serve a total of 1,000 active-duty days over a ten- or twelve-year period. In emergencies, the period of active duty is increased in increments of fifty days. Urban Commando units are generally organized into a single urban battalion. Rural Commando units are sometimes organized into a regional battalion.

[kharne07]

thanks for the input.

[Rockwolf66]

Personally I sugest that you read something like Wardog (http://www.amazon.com/WAR-DOG-Fighting-Peoples-Mercenary/dp/1932033092) in order to understand what some of the conflicts in Africa look like. Frankly just two working Hinds with one good pilot are enough to kick the crap out of an army of rabble.

If I was say south Africa and the world was going to hell I would be offering my neighbors "Advisors and manufacturing support" in exchange for things like shipments from oilfields. Needless to say that some of the more unfriendly countries would have a leadership change first.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

The other thing with Africa, well at least middle and southern Africa, is that the Chinese seem to have had an interest in the place for decades, they just couldn't get a foot in the door with Western and Soviet organizations doing everything they could to control the resources in the place.
With the fall of the Soviet empire, the Chinese have more chance now to get in and stake their claim but in terms of the game history, there's little chance China could do anything in Africa but it would add some interesting elements to a game if the PCs found some "abandoned" Chinese technical & military advisers who just want to get home.

[Ivan]

but it would add some interesting elements to a game if the PCs found some "abandoned" Chinese technical & military advisers who just want to get home.

Yes it would be.

[Snake Eyes]

Africa is a long-neglected trove of adventure. For reference material, a while back LAW0369 had the makings of an African campaign set in Zambia at the outbreak of the Twilight War:

* http://www.topbb.com/twilight2000/viewforum.php?f=31

... and cataraft_2000 had a long-running multi-year Yahoo! Group PBeM that also involved overland evacuation of an African embassy:

* http://groups.yahoo.com/group/T2K_Burundi

[helbent4]

The other thing with Africa, well at least middle and southern Africa, is that the Chinese seem to have had an interest in the place for decades, they just couldn't get a foot in the door with Western and Soviet organizations doing everything they could to control the resources in the place.


Cynic,

The Chinese have had a long presence in Africa, stretching back to the 70's, something I guess isn't well-known, but indeed they were not a major military player compared to the USA, USSR, UK and France.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Involvement_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China_in_A frica

China has maintained relations with regimes and revolutionary movements in Angola, Zimbabwe, Sudan (in the north), Chad (via Sudan) and Mozambique with Nigeria and even Egypt involved in military and trade relations. While many countries were firm Cold War clients of the USA or USSR or related via colonialism to the UK or France, others were part of the "non-aligned" movement that China was the de facto leader; in return they supported many of the continent's revolutionary movements with expertise, advisors, weapons and economic aid.

I imagine during the Twilight War the Chinese presence in Africa would be ramped up. Both to take advantage of those nations that don't want to be involved with either the USA or USSR and to get materials badly needed for their own war efforts, particularly Sudanese oil and other raw minerals.

Hands down, the major player (military and economic) in Africa during the Twilight War would be France.

Tony

[Rainbow Six]

Hands down, the major player (military and economic) in Africa during the Twilight War would be France.

Tony

Totally agree.

V2 NATO Vehicle Guide places French troops in Djibouti (various FAR units), Libreville in the Gabon (6th Marine Infantry Battalion), Dakar in Senegal (23rd Marine Infantry Battalion), and Port Bouet in Ivory Coast (43rd Marine Infantry Battalion). There are also references to both West and East African Regional Commands. And of course the Senegalese unit mentioned in Going Home.

That gives the French a presence in several oil producing areas (according to wiki, Gabonese oil production peaked at 370,000 barrels per day in 1997).

[HorseSoldier]

I imagine during the Twilight War the Chinese presence in Africa would be ramped up. Both to take advantage of those nations that don't want to be involved with either the USA or USSR and to get materials badly needed for their own war efforts, particularly Sudanese oil and other raw minerals.

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

[helbent4]

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

HS,

I would tend to disagree for two reasons:

With the Soviets invading their home territories, I imagine the Chinese would need resources from places like Africa more than ever to fight them. Especially Sudanese oil as the Gulf is an active war zone. Even as international commerce collapses I think you'd see a trickle of vital trade being maintained with the African clients they cultivated as long as possible.

I don't quite follow your second point completely, so please bear with me if I'm missing something. Chinese support in Africa in the Cold War wasn't particularly anti-western in nature (other than anti-Taiwanese independence). In fact, their military aid in Africa was either anti-Soviet or in support of neutral nations to burnish its leadership of the "Non-Aligned Movement" (NAM). Obviously, while allies with nothing to offer would be cut off, others would find the bill for past support coming due. We tend to think of aid as being gifts to win friends and influence, but Chinese aid in Africa was always been very pragmatic and of a quid pro quo nature. In other words, they make sure they get direct value for their aid (both military and economic) and would therefore be motivated to keep it up as long as possible, which I think could exist in the form of trade throughout the Twilight War.

How China could pay for needed African resources would change over the course of the Twilight War. For example, before there was direct western involvement the USA and western European nations could guarantee loans to China to pay for resources, or even funnel aid (economic or military) directly to Chinese Clients to bolster them against Soviet influence or against Soviet clients. In the later stages of the war, pure military and economic aid would dry up as industrial infrastructure comes under nuclear attack. The HW Handbook mentions that Chinese warlords are able to independently produce weapons and ammunition and where possible these could be traded.

Of course, as mentioned the main player in Africa will once again be France. If anyone could facilitate African trade with China it would be them, mainly by guaranteeing Chinese purchases of African resources and funneling aid to China through their own clients and former colonies. One good reason for France to gain influence in postwar Asia and in doing so better position itself as the next postwar superpower.

Tony

[Raellus]

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa. The Cold War Soviet navy was a lot stronger than the CW PRC navy and I see the Soviets as being able to shut down most of China's maritime trade. Soviet commerce raiders (mostly subs) wouldn't have much trouble sinking unescorted Chinese merchant vessels. I say unescorted because CW China's navy didn't really have much of a blue water capability. NATO navies would be too busy to escort Chinese merchant ships on their way to and from Africa.

I see China's main maritime priority during the war as maintaining the flow of military and humanitarian aid coming in from the States. Africa would quickly become a sideshow and, once the Soviets start launching large-scale nuclear strikes against the PRC, I just don't see China as being able to maintain significant trade with Africa.

In my Operation Proud Lion scenario I allude to the fact that China, once very active in the region (Tanzania in particular), had to pretty much cut ties after the Soviet invasion. The Soviets used this to leverage support in the region, leading to the Tanzanian invasion of Kenya.

[helbent4]

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa.

Rae,

Let's just say I think it's plausible but I wouldn't go to the wall to defend my opinions in this case. ;)

Regarding your specific points, China was a major industrial power before and during the Twilight War (while the industrial infrastructure lasted). Aid from the west would be important, but the Chinese would want to make use of their own extensive manufacturing infrastructure so as to not become too dependent on western aid. Much like how Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union was secondary to Russia's own industry. The west in turn would have every reason to assist in shipping raw materials from Africa and protecting Chinese shipping because an independently-supplied Chinese industry complements their own aid efforts (and it's cheaper for them). In other words, it's not a case of competing priorities when it comes to either Chinese trade with Africa and/or direct western aid: both could complement each other.

After the nuclear strikes, France (as the surviving European industrial power) would see it in their interests to continue to assist China, because they have no real motive to see China collapse completely. After all, if they are the sole superpower in the postwar world they're just going to have to pick up the pieces! For their faults, China is not an aggressor in the Twilight War (unlike NATO and the PacWar) and so are relatively blameless. Some kind of Chinese entity would still be a valuable postwar counter-weight to the Soviet Union or whatever political entity governs Russia or parts thereof. Even covertly, assisting China (whichever faction) in maintaining trade ties to Africa could be in France's best interests, and is certainly very cost-efficient for them.

So, I could still see some kind of Chinese presence in Africa during the early Twilight War with western (US/UK) support (including naval protection or re-flagging vessels) and then in the late war period with French assistance. Not strictly canon but fits in with the complicated international relations, even in the late war period.

Really, I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't feel strongly either way; I could see China having some kind of presence in Africa or not.

Tony

[Legbreaker]

I agree that China will be virtually in active in Africa after 1995. Once hostilities kick off involving Nato, I suspect that the South American countries in addition to Australia and New Zealand will become more active, at least from a trade standpoint than the northern hemisphere.
I do not see France as particularly active as they have several wars being fought on, or close to their borders at home. The majority of troops will be stationed there pre nuke just in case there's an incursion. Post nuke and the troops will be needed for civil defence duties which includes maintaining the rule of law and disaster relief.
This is not to say they won't have troops in Africa, just that they'll be limited to the bare minimum required to get specific jobs done.

Trade routes are likely to change dramatically since virtually every country in the northern hemisphere is a war zone. The southern hemisphere by comparison is almost conflict free so I can see food, raw materials and other shipments which would have gone across the equator staying south.

Many of the less stable and resource poor regions are likely to be completely abandonned by outside influences. Civil war would probably erupt on a wide scale as tribal differences, quelled for the most part by external influence, bubble to the surface. National borders would mean nothing (having for the most part been artificially applied by colonising powers in the previous century or three).

South Africa as a country would be in a bad way in my opinion. Apartheid was still in effect until the mid ninties (the elections in 1994 brought in the ANC and pushed out the white National Party that had been running the show for living memory). Although this was the end of white domination, there are still many, many cases today where whites effectively control the wealth and power. With the hostilities elsewhere in the world diverting the attention of those who might otherwise give a damn, the region is likely to have exploded into violence.

Zimbabwe is probably a good example of what Africa as a whole might look like. Ruled by a strongman, it's essentially ignoring all outside influence. Living conditions for the majority of it's people are poor with medical care minimal at best. Food should be plentiful, but as the ruling "class" are more interested in forcing people from their property to "redistribute" the land to their supporters (who do little more than squat on the land without working it) most end up starving. Nearly no gods enter to country so replacement parts for machinery is difficult to come by. There's more, but a few minutes on google should give all anyone really needs.

[John Farson]

Also, once the Russians nuke China to hell whatever remnants of the PRC government (if they even exist) will have far more pressing matters to attend to than trying to maintain even a scant presence in Africa.

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

[pmulcahy11b]

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

And the French would love to have a big-time client state that's still in decently-good shape in Africa -- especially since they seem to be taking the long view in T2K.

[Legbreaker]

Yes, I don't think Apartheid would still be in force in T2K, but there's going to be a LOT of residual hangovers from it. The entire region (not just country) is likely to be very, very chaotic as it tries to sort itself out without external influences.
South Africa to me is probably a great location to carry out a Merc style campaign in the Twilight timeline.

[Raellus]

Also, once the Russians nuke China to hell whatever remnants of the PRC government (if they even exist) will have far more pressing matters to attend to than trying to maintain even a scant presence in Africa.

Agreed. According to v1.0 canon, China is in no shape to sustain international trade after the second year of the war.

South Africa is definitely the wild card in sub-Saharan Africa.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

Actually Mandela was not fighting for democracy at all. He was definitely fighting to get rid of white rule that was inherently racist but he wasn't interested in democracy. Democracy would mean he would be interested in the plight of the other tribal groups in South Africa and he certainly did not care about them as can be seen by the numerous attacks carried out by the ANC against other black struggle groups.
It should be remembered that the ANC (like nearly all the other black struggle groups) was heavily funded by the KGB. Yes that's correct, the Soviet Union provided the money, weapons, training & indoctrination to allow Mandela and his cronies to fight against white rule.
The KGB support a group that wanted democracy? I don't think so.

Shining beacon of civilization in Africa? Sorry if I offend but do you seriously believe that? I look at South Africa today and I cannot see one single example of this in the ANC government. Soweto was promised electricity and water by Mandela if they voted for the ANC... it's now 2010, Soweto has spent the last 16 years waiting for that promise to be fulfilled.
Lets not forget that it was the ANC that invented the charming practice of "necklacing" - placing a car tyre around the victim's neck, filling it with petrol then setting it alight. South Africa under the ANC would be just as screwed as any other country in Africa in the Twilight War.

[helbent4]

Agreed. According to v1.0 canon, China is in no shape to sustain international trade after the second year of the war.

South Africa is definitely the wild card in sub-Saharan Africa.

Rae,

China couldn't do it on it's own, but it could with help. More to the point, as mentioned there are outside groups that would have ample motives to do so. It's therefore within the realm of the possible that there are Chinese nationals active in Africa, minding what small yet vital trickle of resources can be sent overseas.

Regarding the other points about South Africa (made by various posters), I guess it's a matter of comparison if it's a "shining beacon" or not. It's worthy to note that political violence has decreased significantly during ANC rule, although not disappeared. While the KGB may have been involved in covert support of the ANC, the ANC's greatest political victories came after this support was ended, indicating internal social forces and not outside influence were the main driving force for the ANC. Mandela's motives can certainly be second-guessed. I think if he was a true communist then he would have easily been able to implement wide-ranging political and economic "reforms" along the lines of "socialist" neighbors and other African nations, but this did not happen. Elections are internationally recognised as being fair and free, although improvements are still needed.

Putting aside our subjective likes or dislikes of Mandela and the ANC, let's think about what might happen, objectively, if the hard liners succeeded in their coup against Gorbachev and continued the Cold War. I tend to assume that somehow economic reforms in the USSR were successful (a bit of a stretch, I know) but by the mid-90's the Soviet Union was back on its feet (and ready to invade China). In the mid 90's the tides had shifted in South Africa and KGB assistance or no, Apartheid was on its way out and democracy was on the way in.

After Mandela takes power, the KGB is in a bit of a difficult position. The side they backed won, but doesn't seem eager to throw off the yoke of capitalism or adopt a communist government. Mostly, they would be interested in a neutral South Africa in the war with China, and this would be achievable. By mid-Twilight (the nuclear exchange), Soviet aid and influence in Africa and South Africa has severely waned. SA would therefore be looking to protect its own interests in Africa, perhaps forming a regional defensive bloc. Trade to Europe and North America has decreased considerably. so new markets are needed, perhaps in South America, surviving Asian nations (like Thailand) and Australia (which should by all rights be an industrial power in the T2K universe). If there is trade with some Chinese factions, then surviving KGB elements could organise ad hoc disruptions of this (using labour unions, political allies, left-wing extremists, etc.).

Tony

[Rainbow Six]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

[Raellus]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

Agreed. As an unabashed v1.0 supporter, I agree that SA would remain under apartheid so long as the Soviet Union continued to exist.

[natehale1971]

You also could see a slight change in Apartheid with the Whites & Coloureds and the Zulu coming together to create a power block of their own during The chaos of the Twilight War.

In fact, my version of 2300ad has this happening. The Whites (the 'English' & Afrikaners), the Coloureds and the Zulu people created such a power bloc that created the Free State of Transvaal-Zulu while the rest of South Africa had devolved into chaos with the ANC and other tribal groups fighting over control of the resources of South Africa that were not in the areas under the control of Transvaal-Zulu (and protected by the Nuclear stockpile they didn't use during the war).

As the world collapsed into total chaos, the South African Armed Forces took a fortress Transvaal-Zulu strategy and provided physical security for the Whites, Coloureds and others that were aligned with the Power Bloc would retreat into the areas under their control along with the country's stockpile of Nukes.

[helbent4]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

R6,

South Africa certainly could come apart for many reasons. While I understand the emotional linking of Apartheid to communism, I would like to understand what the reasoning is. This is a lot like the assertion that Pope John Paul II somehow caused the fall of communism... the two events (his becoming Pope and the end of the Cold War) may be directly linked, but it's hard to find a concrete connection or causal chain of events leading from one to the other.

I'm not looking for a debate on how Pope JPII caused or didn't cause the end of communism. I'm more wondering what the end of communism would have to do with the fall of Apartheid or the continuation of one somehow guarantees the continuing of the other. If anything, if we grant the KGB supported the ANC then in theory there should be an opposite effect. That is, if KGB support is withdrawn then the ANC should have collapsed, but it didn't.

How about for the v1 or v2/2.2 timeline Apartheid ends in South Africa, but the still-existing KGB prods the ANC into more of a revolutionary end-game. Land and businesses belonging to whites are seized, en masse, some kind of "African Socialism" is imposed. Splits appear in the ANC and their allies, perhaps Mandela declares himself "President-for-Life" or is ousted and/or assassinated for being too moderate (by hard-line Afrikaaner militia commandos or false-flag KGB operatives) and a race war erupts. As the events spiral out of control in the rest of the world and in South Africa, a "fortress Trasnvaal-Zulu" strategy is enacted, per Nate's post.

Tony

[StainlessSteelCynic]

It isn't a case of apartheid was linked to communism, the connection is that while apartheid was practiced by a Western government, those groups fighting against it were prime candidates for use by communist governments (i.e. specifically the Soviet Union) to destabilize the Western government with a view to installing a communist or at least pro-Soviet government.

Once the Soviet Union was no longer able to fund anti-Western organizations (whatever the aims of those organizations were, e.g. Greenpeace, ANC and dozens of 'social reform' groups throughout the West), those organizations had to look elsewhere for funding. The ANC launched a worldwide campaign for funds and members visited Australia, the US, the UK and so on. Since the threat of a communist or pro-communist South Africa was now a thing of the past (due to the collapse of the Soviet Empire), the US, UK, Australia et al no longer had to support the white (apartheid) South African government.
They in fact went about supporting the dismantling of white rule in South Africa, some of this was recognition that the Cold War threat was gone and some of it was guilt for supporting a racist regime.

The "end of communism" meant the end of Western support for South Africa, the only white ruled Western nation in Africa and the nation specifically in control of the strategic sea lane between the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The US and UK had allowed white South Africa to continue a racist policy of government so as to ensure a non-communist control over that part of the world. With the end of communism, the chance of South Africa becoming communist became null and void and so they helped the black struggle groups by not helping the apartheid regime.

[Legbreaker]

It's worthy to note that political violence has decreased significantly during ANC rule, although not disappeared.

Perhaps that's due to the perpetrators moving from opposition into positions of power?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

There was certainly an effort to include members of the various apartheid resistance groups into the social and governmental framework of post-apartheid South Africa and this has significantly reduced the political violence.
However political protests are still common and they are still protesting against corruption in government, the treatment of the poor, the lack of basic utilities, the lack of jobs and so on.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201007221026.html
http://links.org.au/node/1105
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=2009040409223612
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,599010,00.html

Plus, there is still violence but it has become violent crime.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_South_Africa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_violence_in_South_Africa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxi_wars_in_South_Africa
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_security_industry_in_South_Africa

[Rainbow Six]

R6,

South Africa certainly could come apart for many reasons. While I understand the emotional linking of Apartheid to communism, I would like to understand what the reasoning is. This is a lot like the assertion that Pope John Paul II somehow caused the fall of communism... the two events (his becoming Pope and the end of the Cold War) may be directly linked, but it's hard to find a concrete connection or causal chain of events leading from one to the other.

I'm not looking for a debate on how Pope JPII caused or didn't cause the end of communism. I'm more wondering what the end of communism would have to do with the fall of Apartheid or the continuation of one somehow guarantees the continuing of the other. If anything, if we grant the KGB supported the ANC then in theory there should be an opposite effect. That is, if KGB support is withdrawn then the ANC should have collapsed, but it didn't.

How about for the v1 or v2/2.2 timeline Apartheid ends in South Africa, but the still-existing KGB prods the ANC into more of a revolutionary end-game. Land and businesses belonging to whites are seized, en masse, some kind of "African Socialism" is imposed. Splits appear in the ANC and their allies, perhaps Mandela declares himself "President-for-Life" or is ousted and/or assassinated for being too moderate (by hard-line Afrikaaner militia commandos or false-flag KGB operatives) and a race war erupts. As the events spiral out of control in the rest of the world and in South Africa, a "fortress Trasnvaal-Zulu" strategy is enacted, per Nate's post.

Tony

Tony, Stainless Steel Cynic has already pretty much summed up what I would have said here, namely that it suited the UK and the US to allow apartheid to continue as that gave the best possible guarantee against a communist South Africa and all that would entail - as well as the control of the sea lanes between the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans that's been mentioned, it would also have given the Communist Bloc control of South Africa's substantial mineral resources.

That's why I think the two are linked...as long as there was a Soviet Union there was a threat of South Africa turning communist and becoming a Soviet client state, so the preferred outcome for western Governments was the continuation of apartheid Government in South Africa. Perhaps it was rationalised as being the lesser of two evils - equally you could call it "my enemy's enemy is my friend" - successive apartheid Governments were all rabidly anti communist.

However, when communism collapsed (at least as far as the Soviet Union was concerned) that removed London and Washington's fear of South Africa turning communist, so as far as the British and Americans were concerned it was no longer neccessary for an apartheid Government to remain in power.

That's why I think there's a high possibility of apartheid Government still being in place in a V1 timeline, but (not in a V2 or 2.2) .

However, that said a black majority Government in V1 is not impossible. The first direct talks between Nelson Mandela and President Botha took place in 1989, but both sides had been sounding each other out since 1986. I believe one of the main catalysts for these talks was Gorbachev's ascension to power, following which the Soviet Union made clear it wished to disentangle itself from the Southern African conflict zones of Angola and Mozambique. As a consequence of this, South Africa no longer felt as threatened by what the Government used to refer to as "Total Onslaught". So, if you have a V1 with Gorbachev in place for a period of time (until perhaps overthrown by a coup) then I think it's possible that you could have had a South Africa with multi party elections taking place at some point in the mid 1990's as happened IRL.

I hope that clarifies my thinking on this (and thanks SSC for putting it better than I probably could have done myself ;))

Cheers

Dave