FBU involvement in Africa

[Mohoender]

We have talked a lot of the French army in Europe, Quebec... but the FBU is facing a major problem under the Twilight war. It might still produce electricity, it is very likely to have a fair capability when it comes to industrial production but it faces a major supply problem.

It probably has oil for the armed forces (the use of oil should be forbidden to the civilians) exploiting limited domestic oil fields and probably stll getting oil from Camerroon/Gabon. Coal shouldn't be a problem has many closed mines will reopen. This should be true for Iron and Bauxite.

However, raw materials such as copper would be in very short supply.

As a result, I would expect the French army tro be very heavily involved in Africa to secure what access it already has (Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon/Gabon) but also to put its hand on ressources in countries such as Nigeria (gas and oil) and Zaire/RDC (copper and minerals).

Link must be built with South Africa and a full collaboration can be developped between both countries because of ressources in South Africa but also because access to Cape Town might be vital to maintain control over La Reunion and New Caledonia.

Tunisia has been discussed already and I still think that it might join the Union.

Morocco might be collaborating with France as well and recent events open perpectives toward Libya.

Just a number of ideas

[Rainbow Six]

Just having a quick look at some of the areas you've suggested...Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo looks interesting...according to wiki it has supplies of copper, cobalt, tin, radium, diamonds, and uranium, although extraction might be a problem - looks like you're many hundreds of kilometres from any seaports.

If French troops are in Gabon and Cameroon there's probably a fair chance they may be in Equatorial Guinea as well - substantial oil reserves were discovered there in 1996 IRL (assuming it didn't get nuked of course).

Libya is mentioned in Mediterranean Cruise...I think it may have been nuked, but can't be certain.

[Raellus]

I have French "advisors" in Kenya. I also have the French trading enough AFVs to the U.S. (for the 173rd BCT's light armored battalion which, along with the rest of the BCT, is deployed to Kenya) for a share of the fuel produced by the refineries around Mombasa. Frank Frey came up with the concept and I just added the details. He was cool with it. :cool:

[boogiedowndonovan]

I have French "advisors" in Kenya. I also have the French trading enough AFVs to the U.S. (for the 173rd BCT's light armored battalion which, along with the rest of the BCT, is deployed to Kenya) for a share of the fuel produced by the refineries around Mombasa. Frank Frey came up with the concept and I just added the details. He was cool with it. :cool:

sounds interesting, what do you have the light armored battalion equipped with? AMX-10RC?

[Raellus]

sounds interesting, what do you have the light armored battalion equipped with? AMX-10RC?

I like the AMX-10RC but I went a different route*. Here's the pertinent section from my write-up. A much more complete write up can be found here: http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=2312&highlight=operation+proud+lion

French Involvement

The French government wanted access to the fuel produced by the Kenyan refineries. They offered the American government French-made AFVs originally en route to its African client states in exchange for a share of the fuel produced in Kenya. The U.S., unable to adequately provide replacement vehicles for the 173rd BCT, accepted the offer. The shipment was diverted to Mombasa, arriving in early August, 2007. The 3/503 (motorized) henceforth began operations equipped with Panhard VBLs, VABs, and ERC 90 F4s.

(The 173rd BCT lost its organic vehicles [mostly HUMVEEs, FAVs, and a few LAV75A2 Ridgways] when a Soviet [or Italian] submarine sank the ship transporting them to Kenya.)

*The reason that I didn't choose the more powerful AMX-10RC is that there it currently has only 3 users (including France), none of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. The ERC 90 F4, on the other hand, has 4 African users so it seemed a more likely option.

[Cdnwolf]

I would imagine the French would have seize the oil rigs in the Gulf of St Lawrence and ones off Nova Scotia to help its fuel problems.

[Legbreaker]

They do that and they're starting an international incident nobody wants, even if they are basically "friends" with Quebec.
Definitely NOT an option to go seizing another countries property, especially when it's a loooong way from your own borders.

[Mohoender]

*The reason that I didn't choose the more powerful AMX-10RC is that there it currently has only 3 users (including France), none of them in Sub-Saharan Africa. The ERC 90 F4, on the other hand, has 4 African users so it seemed a more likely option.

I agree with your choice except that there were only 3 African users for the ERC-90 (Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Tchad/Nigeria is a recent addition, post-2000). Moreover, models might not be F4 but F1 and you could have some ERC-20 "Kriss" with them. The VAB could be the six wheeled versions but there are three more possibilities for the APC: Panhard VCR, the APC version of the ACMAT VLRA and the VBRG. By the way, I would add the VLRA to the list in 4 and 6 wheeled versions.

Surplus AML-90 could be sent as well.

[Mohoender]

I would imagine the French would have seize the oil rigs in the Gulf of St Lawrence and ones off Nova Scotia to help its fuel problems.

Too far, too hard and too risky (as Leg pointed out)

[Mohoender]

Just having a quick look at some of the areas you've suggested...Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo looks interesting...according to wiki it has supplies of copper, cobalt, tin, radium, diamonds, and uranium, although extraction might be a problem - looks like you're many hundreds of kilometres from any seaports.


You are right but it is already the world's main copper extraction area and all the needed equipment is already there. They'll have no problem to find the needed engineers, technicians and even workers as most had been Belgian and French. Location is indeed an issue but shouldn't be that much of a problem under T2K. The French need to secure the lane to the sea and I have no doubt that they would conduct genocides on the population trying to oppose them. The wealth of these deposits largely justifies it. Moreover, the copper is already exported (and has been for a long time) and, therefore, you'll find there all the needed transport infrastructures.

Mobutu who had been supported by US (until the 1990's) since the beginning might pose a serious threat but his army was incompetent at best.

Anyway, I just asked my cousin. If he answers my email, you'll know how the minerals are bought to the coasts. He has been working as an engineer in Kolwezi (as did his father) and his wife is from Katanga.

[Raellus]

I agree with your choice except that there were only 3 African users for the ERC-90 (Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Tchad/Nigeria is a recent addition, post-2000). Moreover, models might not be F4 but F1 and you could have some ERC-20 "Kriss" with them. The VAB could be the six wheeled versions but there are three more possibilities for the APC: Panhard VCR, the APC version of the ACMAT VLRA and the VBRG. By the way, I would add the VLRA to the list in 4 and 6 wheeled versions.

Surplus AML-90 could be sent as well.

Thanks for the info and the suggestions. I like the idea of adding a couple of ERC-20 Kriss to the mix (if I go with the ERC-90). The AML-90 is also a good choice. IIRC, the main reason I didn't go with that is that it looked like production ended well before the Twilight War.

I must admit that I chose the VAB because I really like the way that it looks, especially the four-wheeled version. In my opinion, the Panhard VCR has got to be one of the ugliest wheeled APCs in the world.

As I was envisioning it, the VBLs would do reconaissance and possibly AT duty (armed with TOW IIs), the VALs would act as standard APCs and possibly mortar carriers, and the ERC-90s would provide direct fire support for the whole bunch.

I also envisioned a few trucks as being part of the shipment (but I kind of gave up on researching exactly which models).

On a side note, it would be an interesting, somewhat ironic, coincidence if the U.S. operated ERC-90s, since the Mexican army would presumably be using their own ERC-90s against U.S. forces in the American southwest.

[Mohoender]

The AML-90 is also a good choice. IIRC, the main reason I didn't go with that is that it looked like production ended well before the Twilight War.


In fact, several hundreds had just been phased out by the French the last being taken out of service in the mid-1990's. Moreover, if production had ended for France, the production lines were maintained for exports until 2002 when the production definitely ceased. By the 1990's production is rated "as required".

[Mohoender]

I also envisioned a few trucks as being part of the shipment (but I kind of gave up on researching exactly which models).


Outsdide of the ACMAT VLRA, trucks could be Berliet GB 8KT, Marmon-Simca and Hotchkiss Jeep. Still the VLRA is my favored choice because the vehicle is fun, because it has been engineered for Africa in the first place and because it can be used as a platform for various type of use (including anti-air and command).

Here is a link with numerous views of the VLRA. Also search for the UN African HMMWV, it is interesting and perfectly relevant to T2K.

http://www.google.fr/search?um=1&hl=fr&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Afr%3Aofficial&channel=s&biw=1280&bih=878&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=VLRA&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

[Rainbow Six]

You are right but it is already the world's main copper extraction area and all the needed equipment is already there. They'll have no problem to find the needed engineers, technicians and even workers as most had been Belgian and French. Location is indeed an issue but shouldn't be that much of a problem under T2K. The French need to secure the lane to the sea and I have no doubt that they would conduct genocides on the population trying to oppose them. The wealth of these deposits largely justifies it. Moreover, the copper is already exported (and has been for a long time) and, therefore, you'll find there all the needed transport infrastructures.

Mobutu who had been supported by US (until the 1990's) since the beginning might pose a serious threat but his army was incompetent at best.

Anyway, I just asked my cousin. If he answers my email, you'll know how the minerals are bought to the coasts. He has been working as an engineer in Kolwezi (as did his father) and his wife is from Katanga.

Sorry, I probably didn't make myself clear there...when I said extraction, I was really meaning the part about getting the minerals from the mine to the coast.

Hopefully your cousin will be able to shed some light on how that's currently done...I for one would certainly be interested.

(As an aside, I now can't get the line about Belgians in the Congo from Billy Joel's We Didn't Start The Fire out of my head...:))

[Panther Al]

Thanks for the info and the suggestions. I like the idea of adding a couple of ERC-20 Kriss to the mix (if I go with the ERC-90). The AML-90 is also a good choice. IIRC, the main reason I didn't go with that is that it looked like production ended well before the Twilight War.

I must admit that I chose the VAB because I really like the way that it looks, especially the four-wheeled version. In my opinion, the Panhard VCR has got to be one of the ugliest wheeled APCs in the world.

As I was envisioning it, the VBLs would do reconaissance and possibly AT duty (armed with TOW IIs), the VALs would act as standard APCs and possibly mortar carriers, and the ERC-90s would provide direct fire support for the whole bunch.

I also envisioned a few trucks as being part of the shipment (but I kind of gave up on researching exactly which models).

On a side note, it would be an interesting, somewhat ironic, coincidence if the U.S. operated ERC-90s, since the Mexican army would presumably be using their own ERC-90s against U.S. forces in the American southwest.


I totally agree, the VAB is perhaps one of the better looking wheeled APC's out there, and I like how you have a commonality of parts for the vehicles by and large. Nice thing about the VAB, is it seems to have a variant for about every possible use, so it could fill the majority of roles needed.

[Mohoender]

Hopefully your cousin will be able to shed some light on how that's currently done...I for one would certainly be interested.

(As an aside, I now can't get the line about Belgians in the Congo from Billy Joel's We Didn't Start The Fire out of my head...:))

And you reminded me that I still had to watch the belgian movie "Lumumba" (really excellent but I don't know if there is any english copy somewhere)

My cousin answered quite quickly. Here is a translation of what he wrote:

The minerals are exploited by two means. Part of it (Cu and Co) is processed on the spot in various locations (Kolwezi, Kipushi, Fungurume...). This is done in electrical oven. Then, the metal (undergoing only partial refinement) is shaped into ingot and brought by truck to the two main harbor : Durban (South Africa) and Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania).

Interesting when it comes to the relations between the FBU and the USA. Then, help might be given to US troops in Kenya not because of oil but to secure access to he harbor. Also interesting for the relations with South Africa.

Another part of the mineral (for exemple, Uranium) is brought as such still using trucks. The mineral is, then, put in "Big Bags" and sent to either the ports or to conditioning factories in South Africa.

As a resumé: always by truck (60 tons double carrier trucks), in ingots (partial refinement) or Big Bags (non-refined).

Most of it get out of Katanga through Kasumbalesa on the border with Zambia (96 km south of Lubumbashi).

Might not be the French in Katanga but the South Africans

I could have asked him some times ago but until very recently he was working in the south of Algeria extracting oil (in what they call a life base) and was out of reach. He just quit his job because he considered to have had enough with revolutions and uprisings. Fair enough when you consider that he had been several times in the RDC (Kolwezi...), Chad (When France and the CIA had a small issue with an obscure Colonel Khadaffy), Haute-Volta (the day prior to it being renamed Burkina Faso), Haiti (at the time of Baby Doc fall)...

My uncle and aunt lived in 35 African countries and went through 32 wars and revolutions. Each time they arrived somewhere we used to bet on how long the regime would last. Now, they have been residing in France for two years :D:p.

[Legbreaker]

Which part of Africa are the Cubans involved in? I can't remember what is said in Gateway to the Spanish Main... :confused:
This could throw a bit of a spanner in the works....

[boogiedowndonovan]

Which part of Africa are the Cubans involved in? I can't remember what is said in Gateway to the Spanish Main... :confused:
This could throw a bit of a spanner in the works....

Cubans were in Angola.

IRL, Castro sent Cuban troops to Angola to assist the Angolans against UNITA and the South Africans. They left in 1991.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba_in_Angola

In T2k, looks like they are still there in 2000. I can't remember the exact wording but the Cubans stranded on Grenada were the misfits of the Cuban forces in Angola.

[Mohoender]

In fact, Cubans started to withdraw ih 1989 and only a few were left by 1991. Their presence would depend on your timeline and, no matter what, they will be on the leave. As soon as the war Started and La Havana got rid of Soviet Troops, Moscow had ceased to support them in Africa.

Whatever, isolated Cubans will not weight much in face of a fully supplied South African Army and its allies.

[Rainbow Six]

And you reminded me that I still had to watch the belgian movie "Lumumba" (really excellent but I don't know if there is any english copy somewhere)

My cousin answered quite quickly. Here is a translation of what he wrote:

The minerals are exploited by two means. Part of it (Cu and Co) is processed on the spot in various locations (Kolwezi, Kipushi, Fungurume...). This is done in electrical oven. Then, the metal (undergoing only partial refinement) is shaped into ingot and brought by truck to the two main harbor : Durban (South Africa) and Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania).

Interesting when it comes to the relations between the FBU and the USA. Then, help might be given to US troops in Kenya not because of oil but to secure access to he harbor. Also interesting for the relations with South Africa.

Another part of the mineral (for exemple, Uranium) is brought as such still using trucks. The mineral is, then, put in "Big Bags" and sent to either the ports or to conditioning factories in South Africa.

As a resumé: always by truck (60 tons double carrier trucks), in ingots (partial refinement) or Big Bags (non-refined).

Most of it get out of Katanga through Kasumbalesa on the border with Zambia (96 km south of Lubumbashi).

Might not be the French in Katanga but the South Africans

I could have asked him some times ago but until very recently he was working in the south of Algeria extracting oil (in what they call a life base) and was out of reach. He just quit his job because he considered to have had enough with revolutions and uprisings. Fair enough when you consider that he had been several times in the RDC (Kolwezi...), Chad (When France and the CIA had a small issue with an obscure Colonel Khadaffy), Haute-Volta (the day prior to it being renamed Burkina Faso), Haiti (at the time of Baby Doc fall)...

My uncle and aunt lived in 35 African countries and went through 32 wars and revolutions. Each time they arrived somewhere we used to bet on how long the regime would last. Now, they have been residing in France for two years :D:p.

Thanks Mo, that's interesting...so from the looks of things you'd need to make sure you had some sort of power source in place for the electric ovens.

Both sea ports are on the east coast of Africa so that would present some challenges I think, particularly if we assume that the Suez Canal is no longer passable...any ships coming out of East Africa and headed for France would have to go the long way around. Durban is a long haul and I suppose is governed by what has happened in South Africa, which is something that has come up on these boards a few times before. Dar is closer so would (presumably) mean shorter journey times to the port (thinking here that the riskiest part of the venture would be the road trip from the mine to the coast). As you say though, interesting as to how a French presence in Tanzania might affect relations with the US (and others). Zanzibar might be an interesting setting.

Also, I don't think it's been mentioned in this thread, but we know from the RDF Sourcebook that there's a significant French presence in Djibouti.

Interesting info...thanks

[rcaf_777]

I think, particularly if we assume that the Suez Canal is no longer passable

Are you think Nuke? or more conventional means, I mean the the Soviets want to destory to prevent the US from using it, or keep in their hands for there own use gate way to more oil in middle east

But I think in pactical terms the canal would be a mess litter with wrecks from Israel and Egypt fighting around it, or the Soviets could block it by sinking a ships in canal

[Mohoender]

Here is a link to interesting information about power supply to Kolwezi

http://www.abb.fr/industries/ap/db0003db004333/ae638bad1d35b5d1c12577490032bfea.aspx

One step further toward a needed collaboration between France and SAR.

Durban would be interesting and the Suez Canal wouldn't be an issue. Shipping would have to go from Durban to Bordeaux with eventual stops at Cape Town, Libreville, Abidjan and Dakar.

[Rainbow Six]

Are you think Nuke? or more conventional means, I mean the the Soviets want to destory to prevent the US from using it, or keep in their hands for there own use gate way to more oil in middle east

But I think in pactical terms the canal would be a mess litter with wrecks from Israel and Egypt fighting around it, or the Soviets could block it by sinking a ships in canal

As NATO seem to be ones that would benefit most from a link between the Med and the Arabian Gulf (and by extension the Persian Gulf) I was thinking a Soviet nuke, but other options are equally possible.

Here is a link to interesting information about power supply to Kolwezi

http://www.abb.fr/industries/ap/db0003db004333/ae638bad1d35b5d1c12577490032bfea.aspx

One step further toward a needed collaboration between France and SAR.

Durban would be interesting and the Suez Canal wouldn't be an issue. Shipping would have to go from Durban to Bordeaux with eventual stops at Cape Town, Libreville, Abidjan and Dakar.

Yep, that does seem like a logical route if the Suez Canal is blocked, taking in potential FBU allies in West Africa. That said, I'm still not convinced about the stability of South Africa, especially in a V1 timeline that has a continued Cold War and (possibly) an apartheid Government remaining in power. It might be different in V2 with Mandela as President, etc. Maybe I've just read Larry Bond's Vortex too often...

[Legbreaker]

I can see a ground burst nuke being the quickest and most effective way to block the canal. Perhaps one at each end just to be sure...
Sinking ships in the channel would work, but it's slow to do and could be prevented by effective naval patrols. And there's bound to be plenty of naval assets tasked with preventing it being blocked in any way (scuttled shipping, mines, etc). Logically, a nuke seems to be the best option.

The nuke probably wouldn't be targeted at the canal itself either - more effective to land/place it a hundred metres or so to the side and let the blast throw earth and rubble into the channel. Perhaps the Soviets could get a few local fanatics to do the job - drive a nuke in a van to the bank and hit the switch...

[Mohoender]

As Leg I use to detonate two bombs.
However, could the canal still be used even if it had survive almost intact is a good question.
Then, what kind of ship will be able to travel through it?

I have not found any clear element but I just found this website (very interesting from what I read in French):
http://suezcanal.bibalex.org/Presentation/Home/home.aspx

As I read one of the document (from 1953) it quickly became obvious that the canal need quite some level of care and that raise many questions. With the Twilight war the ability to exploit it correctly would probably have disappeared and even if the canal still existed, most ship might not be able to sail through it anymore.

Something to think about (a question to ask also about the Panama canal which, I think, is even more complex).

[Olefin]

A late joiner to the discussion but wanted to get my two cents in. I would think that the US might want to keep the French out of Kenya at all costs. Been starting my own module there similar to what Raellus is doing but where the US got its shipment of vehicles thru to there and thus didnt need any help from France.

The refinery at Mombasa is most likely being used to make refined products for the RDF - and all the US doesnt need is the French having a say in who gets the refined products.

And the Kenyans may see how other areas in Africa are falling under French domination and not like the return of a colonial power to their country (especially as they were never a French colony to begin with).

I think the French may get a much better welcome in West Africa than they will in the East with the exception of Dijbouti which was their colony at one time. (as detailed in the RDF module)

[Webstral]

It seems likely that the whole continent might have been hit by EMP. The West African oil infrastructure is an obvious target for both/either side. To my knowledge, there hasn't been an African strike list published. However, the Soviets would have a keen interest in denying African minerals and petroleum to the West. It's hard to know how badly South Africa got hit, but it's highly unlikely that the Soviets would be willing to forget decades of frustration at the hands of the South Africans. The West, in return, would hit Soviet clients as payback. A handful of nukes, coupled with the disruption of EMP, would upend the already tenuous social contract in many parts of Subsaharan Africa.

[Badbru]

Plant tongue firmly in cheek...

Hey Web, Now who's advocating a Mad Max environment?
Yeah nuke it all!

Remove tongue from cheek.

Seriously wouldn't both side want to be a little bit cautious about how many
nukes get thrown around? Both the US and Soviets, heck even Europe, know
for certain they're going to get nuked somewhere and after that they're going to need intact friends to help them out. I can't think of a better way to destroy international relations than to drop a nuke on someone. Also cannon states the main two beligerants inched their way towards nuclear warfare in order to avoid the dreaded MAD massive exchange. As such I guess I'm a proponent of the less damaged approach, atleast to the not strickly involved in the war areas, such as Africa, South America, and Australia. Even Portugal and Spain get off lightly in my T2k environment.

[Olefin]

I dont see the African continent being hit by EMP at all, or at least very minorily. Outside of major existing Soviet bases there really wasnt much to hit in Africa.

For instance look at the Mombasa refinery - compared to US facilities and whats in the Middle East its a minor facility. You would have to be very very far down the list of targets before you ever hit that.

And also one other clue - Frank Frey in his notes basically said the refinery is operational - its why the US is there in the first place. You arent going to waste a para brigade and the infrastructure to support it, let alone a small naval task force to guard a non-operational or barely operational refinery.

[Webstral]

Seriously wouldn't both side want to be a little bit cautious about how many nukes get thrown around? Both the US and Soviets, heck even Europe, know
for certain they're going to get nuked somewhere and after that they're going to need intact friends to help them out. I can't think of a better way to destroy international relations than to drop a nuke on someone. Also cannon states the main two beligerants inched their way towards nuclear warfare in order to avoid the dreaded MAD massive exchange. As such I guess I'm a proponent of the less damaged approach, atleast to the not strickly involved in the war areas, such as Africa, South America, and Australia. Even Portugal and Spain get off lightly in my T2k environment.

Large parts of Africa are already halfway to Mad Max as it is. A handful of nukes is all it takes to upend the applecart. The v1 chronology tells us that both sides are willing to nuke targets in neutral countries to deny the enemy access to resources.

As for the balance of nuking, let’s remember that we’re talking the USSR here. Once they take a few hits, the surviving leadership is going to be thinking about the future. The chances for the Soviet Union to emerge in a favorable position are diminished by every other player who enters the recovery period in a better condition than the USSR. This is why the Soviets hit France, although France probably gets an even lighter treatment than the US. The Soviets will have very little to lose by giving Western allies in Africa a taste of the nuclear fire, since the Africans can’t retaliate. If the West reads the code, then they strike Soviet clients in the region. Very little skin off the Soviets’ nose. At the very least, the Soviets would want to render African electronics and power generation as inert as much of the Soviet system. The number of attacks on African cities, bases, and infrastructure might be very small. Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town, the Nigerian oil shipping facilities… it doesn’t take a lot to take the pro-Western Africans out of the equation. Perhaps a few tacnukes are used against specific South African bases and the bases of any other pro-Western African nation with the resources to be a problem. Again, a handful will do the job.

Having Africans “taken out of the equation” doesn’t mean the place is completely wrecked. There’s plenty of room for things exactly like the operation in Kenya. But in many places, the ability of government to control the hinterlands was pretty weak already. Many of the African nations will fragment into much more organic states. Oil and electricity will become even scarcer throughout the continent. Civil war and civil disorder, which lurked just beneath the surface in many locations, will become pandemic. Of course, there will be islands of peace and relative prosperity. However, clients of both sides and the neutrals will become completely wrapped up in their own very local concerns.

[Targan]

I back Web's take on Africa. Good summary.

[Ironside]

Yes, the story hangs together well.

[Olefin]

I disagree with Web as to South Africa - depending on what happened there they may have 4-5 nukes still in their arsenal. And while thats not a lot its enough to really not make the Soviets day if they, oh for instance, give them to the Israelis to get some pay back one day or put them on a ship to try to pay the Sov's back themselves. (especially considering there isnt much left of the Sov Navy to stop them)

Course that depends on if you see South Africa as a pariah nation or if they have embraced change and are back in the company of nations again.

Also keep in mind that Senegal and Dijbouti hold together as nations according to the RDF - now if Africa is a nuked EMP blasted continent I doubt very much there would have been much left of either nation to join the FBU.

(I do heartily agree that much of Nigeria would be glowing in the dark because of the importance of its oil industry to the US and Western Europe)

However I can definitely agree that much of the continent would be a mess even if not one nuke landed south of Libya. In the module I am working on the 1st and 2nd Congolese Wars still occur - and its those wars that help turn much of Africa between the Sahara and South Africa into a landscape of failed nations - except for the ones the French and Belgians supported like Rwanda and Burundi (i.e. the Tutsi armies that came out of the Rwanda massacre)

[Legbreaker]

I'm with Web on this one.

[Olefin]

well I am with Frank Frey on this one and its his notes that are being used for Kenya. And I doubt that Kenya is the only nation in Africa that is in good shape.

[Webstral]

It's not an either-or. I'm describing an overall state of affairs. I specifically made allowances for islands of relative peace and prosperity so that Kenya and some other locations like it could be incorporated into an overall picture without the need for taking sides over something so ill-defined as Africa in 2000.

Surviving intact is very much a relative term in 2000. Even places that haven’t been directly affected by the nuclear exchange are going to be affected by the collapse of the global trade network and the disruption of the global petrochemical network. Even places that produce enough oil for fuel for their own needs and some export still can’t necessarily produce a wide variety of important petrochemical products, such as pesticides and fertilizers. Other products not produced locally will be unavailable. The local economy will be affected by the steep decline in trade—especially in places like Mombasa that were relatively cosmopolitan before the war. The ever-present urge for self-determination among the tribes not in power will grow as communications and interdependence decline.

Again, this isn’t worth taking sides over. There’s no Webstral’s-way-or-the-highway or Frank Frey’s-way-or-the-highway.

[Olefin]

No and I dont think that either Webstral - dont take my disagreeing with you as saying its my way or the highway - I am saying that I dont agree with Africa being massively damaged by EMP - but I do agree with you that economic damage from world trade being shut down is making Africa rapidly fall apart in many places

[Raellus]

To me, this EMP argument is moot. Regardless of whether Africa is or is not affected by EMP, it is still going to be a hot mess once WWIII kicks off. Somalia is the modern epitome of a failed state. There are fairly routine rolling blackouts in Nairobi and Mombassa now, in 2012. Nigeria teeters on the brink of tearing itself apart (again- remember Biafra?) in a fresh wave of sectarian violence. There was a coup in Mali just last week. If all of this has happened during the "Pax Americana", imagine how much crazier it would have been as the Cold War superpowers spiralled towards open warfare.

In the topsy-turvy lead in to a full-blown (read "nuclear") WWIII, Africa is only going to get more chaotic. Without the money and technical expertise of the U.S., Soviet Union, and/or China (depending, to a degree, on what timeline you use), many African nations are going to struggle to keep it together. Cold War patronage did contribute to some of the violence and instability in Africa during the '50s-'80s, but it also, in some cases, kept the violence fairly localized and, in others, prevented wider African wars from breaking out. Without that external influence, the situation in Africa would likely have gotten a whole lot worse. We all saw what happened in Rwanda when the world turned a blind eye.

Yes, some parts of Africa might be able to maintain relative peace and order, but these regions are going to be small, few, and far between. They are going to struggle to beat back the tide of chaos that surrounds them and they are going to have to do so more or less alone. There's not going to be some powerful patron nation there to step in and help with lawyers, guns, and money. Hell, there's not going to be a U.N. even.

Kenya might be one of those countries that doesn't completely collapse, but it will be faced with some staggering challenges, with or without nuclear strikes/EMP.

[Targan]

Kenya might be one of those countries that doesn't completely collapse, but it will be faced with some staggering challenges, with or without nuclear strikes/EMP.

So very true (sadly). Even in RL right now, with a relatively stable world and foreign assistance, Kenya can't prevent Somali pirate groups raiding coastal resorts and kidnapping foreign tourists. Once the Twilight War kicked off Kenya would be hard pressed just to maintain a basic level of border security. Of course, having formidable US combat assets in country would provide an excellent deterrent effect against a full scale incursion by anything other than guerrilla groups.

[Olefin]

I am actually starting to look at Western Africa and Senegal now for a possible new sourcebook

We do know that per canon the French were heavily engaged in Africa even before the war broke out - not only did they have the units that were historically located in places like Chad, Senegal, Djibouti, etc.. but they had sent additional French Foreign Legion units and possibly the entire FAR to Western Africa to fight Soviet backed guerrillas in Sengal, Mauritania and Mali - thats a pretty big deployment of men even before the general war starts

And adding the Belgians to the mix means that they might be going to places like Benin (which is where the Belgians have trained troops in the past) as well as Rwanda and Burundi and the Congo as well

In fact that heavy committment could explain partly whey the French didnt join the war - i.e. the units that could rapidly respond to events in Germany and could have been deployed quickly when the fighting broke out were already committed to Africa - which gave the French time to think and decide that this war wasnt for them (i.e. during the time they got the units in France up to war readiness)

[pmulcahy11b]

I am actually starting to look at Western Africa and Senegal now for a possible new sourcebook

We do know that per canon the French were heavily engaged in Africa even before the war broke out - not only did they have the units that were historically located in places like Chad, Senegal, Djibouti, etc.. but they had sent additional French Foreign Legion units and possibly the entire FAR to Western Africa to fight Soviet backed guerrillas in Sengal, Mauritania and Mali - thats a pretty big deployment of men even before the general war starts

And adding the Belgians to the mix means that they might be going to places like Benin (which is where the Belgians have trained troops in the past) as well as Rwanda and Burundi and the Congo as well

In fact that heavy committment could explain partly whey the French didnt join the war - i.e. the units that could rapidly respond to events in Germany and could have been deployed quickly when the fighting broke out were already committed to Africa - which gave the French time to think and decide that this war wasnt for them (i.e. during the time they got the units in France up to war readiness)

And of course, Nigeria is oil-rich.

[Olefin]

and fighting over what is left in Nigeria would be something you could see the French and Belgians getting involved in - i.e. even if the refineries there get nuked (which in my sourcebook I have happening and most likely is what "really happened" if the area had been covered by canon based on the pattern of nukes in places like Mexico and Venezuela and France) there is still the matter of the oilfields - and I dont see the French just letting that area stay in the hands of marauders and Nigerian army remnants

[unkated]

Just having a quick look at some of the areas you've suggested...Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo looks interesting...according to wiki it has supplies of copper, cobalt, tin, radium, diamonds, and uranium, although extraction might be a problem - looks like you're many hundreds of kilometres from any seaports.

Katanga was, of course, a locale of mercenary action in the 1960s.

You could have an interesting campaign of a well-stocked mercenary activity kicking off in say 1997 (when all the major powers are otherwise occupied) to seize the province, declare independence, and wait out the war and then set up for business in teh aftermath. The French could be a good early partner, lending military aid and selling equipment in exchange for raw materials. By 2001-5, they and perhaps Brazil and Argentina may be the best customers (semi-intact still-active industrial sectors).

If French troops are in Gabon and Cameroon there's probably a fair chance they may be in Equatorial Guinea as well - substantial oil reserves were discovered there in 1996 IRL (assuming it didn't get nuked of course).

Libya is mentioned in Mediterranean Cruise...I think it may have been nuked, but can't be certain.

Libya is a big place. If it was nuked, I would assume that someone targeted refineries or ports. Nuking very oil well out in the desert would take a lot of shots. Inefficient use of resources; if you are denying oil to your enemies, you are concerned with keeping them from exporting it.

An interesting possibility if Libya was nuked or has otherwise fallen apart would be period French military actions to seize a well, pump out a (truck) convoy's worth or oil, and then be taken off of a minor port.

Another possibility would be to lay a new pipeline to a minor unnuked port for use...

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

Libya was nuked per Med Cruise - I referred to that in the East African sourcebook - however you are right - they nuked the refineries mostly and also the ports - so you can get oil still - the issue is getting it transported to the coast

Med Cruise had them using merchant convoys bringing drums of barely refined dirty diesel fuel (refined by using 50 gallon drums to seperate the oil that burns as diesel from the heavier elements)

Having the French get involved (or for that matter the Italians out of Sicily) would be a fun way to do a different kind of adventure for the game (and a great way to actually play Italian or French characters)

either as part of the effort to get the oil transported (i.e. convoy guards) or as a recon force trying to find operational oil wells