Question about satellites

[mikeo80]

As we on the East Coast of the USA get ready for a visit from Irene, it brought an interesting question to mind.

I know from reading the V1 rule book, the nuclear exchange knocked out most scientific research areas. However military command posts survived.

During the exchange, was there an anti satellite effort by either side to deny "the high ground" to the other side?

Being able to see what your advisary is doing during a military discussion is invaluable. (OT Desert Storm comes to mind)

Communications sats would also be a high priority. There was a sentence in V-1 that said that the military had the majority control of any surviving telecommunication networks.

My $0.02

Mike

[dragoon500ly]

The module "Satellite Down" mentions that "during the height of the war, just about every satellite on both sides, was knocked down or rendered worthless junk."

My own take, is that within the period 1995-1997, ASAT weapons knocked out most of the network.

[Mahatatain]

My own take on it is that there could well be one or two military comms satellites still operational that give patchy comms around the world to those who have the right gear to use them.

[Mohoender]

I think that this source is reliable and it accounted for about 4000 satellite launchs by 1998. Therefore, I would expect to find something like 3500-4000 satellites around earth by 1995 with roughly 50-60% of them in working conditions.

http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/ask_astro/answers/980202e.html

By 1988 the US ASAT program was cancelled but in T2K, I would expect it to be revived with the threat of war. If indeed it was pursued, I would expect the deployment to be about 200 missiles as by 1988, the USAF intended to deploy 112 missiles with 20 aircrafts (according to wiki). IMO USSR would have deployed, at most, the same number of missile with Mig-31.

I don't expect this to be enough to destroy the entire network but it would be largely enough to seriously damage the spy sattelite network, GPS and Glonass. Then, more satellites would be put out of commission during the exchange (EMP from high altitude burst). Last, more will have simply fallen into disrepair. Glonass had been completed in 1995 (24 satellites) and had fallen to 6 working sattelites by 2001. Satellites networks would have suffer more from the end of launches than from direct attack IMO.

Anyway, by 2000, most of the satellite networks would be seriously damaged with more being destroy every year. By 2010 all pre-twilight sattelites will be virtually gone except for a few lucky ones (lifespan being 15 years on the average and 20 for commsat).

Result of this:
Starting in 1995, spy satellites would progressively be destroyed. By 1997 spy satellites network would be seriously down and gone by the year 2000.
By 1997, using a smart weapon will have become almost impossible except with ground teams. Still communicate with such a team by 2000 would have become a very hard task.
By 1997, both GPS and GLONASS would have become increasingly unreliable and coverage by 2000 would be more than limited, at best.
By 2000, getting a reliable weather cast would be quite difficult. And not knowing for sure what weather you can count on during your next offensive is a bit of a problem.
By 2000, military communications would have taken over most of the civilian systems. Communications would be increasingly difficult and comm security would be geopardized. For my part, I would not be surprised to see pigeons and cable phone taking over part of the job.

If France remains indeed out of the conflict it will gain from this its most important advantage. Kourou (French Guyana) has not been destroyed, it has some rockets in storage and can manage to build more (especially with Belgium on its side). Therefore, France can still launch some satellites and maintain/repair some of its network. that should rate high in Paris priority.
This could allow for limited survelliance capabilities (Helios), for the survival of a very important system we usually forget about (Argos), for some communication (Syracuse), for the last fairly reliable weather surveillance system (Meteosat). I don't include radio and TV (Eutelsat) as this system would probably be neglected. As I said, this would grant an important advantage to France (may be not in 2000 but probalby as early as 2002-2003) but I would also expect Paris to sale some of the information it gets from this to NATO and may be to the Warsaw Pact. About Argos, I would expect Paris to have kept the system available, at least to NATO, allowing for many pilots and sailors to survive. Anyway, it would be a major advantage in global relation.

[Mohoender]

I didn't know about this system but I would also expect France to do its best to maintain the Cospas-Sarsat system (In fact, it appears that what I thought about Argos, in fact, concerned this system) that had resulted from a collaboration between USA, Canada, USSR and France (1979-1988 and thank you wiki). I would, then, expect France to still grant access to this system to all. Just because it makes sense at a diplomatic level.

[Rainbow Six]

Guys, might be worth looking at this thread as well...

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=2429

Cheers

[James Langham]

I didn't know about this system but I would also expect France to do its best to maintain the Cospas-Sarsat system (In fact, it appears that what I thought about Argos, in fact, concerned this system) that had resulted from a collaboration between USA, Canada, USSR and France (1979-1988 and thank you wiki). I would, then, expect France to still grant access to this system to all. Just because it makes sense at a diplomatic level.

EMP will also have a significant effect.

[Mohoender]

EMP will also have a significant effect.

I didn't say otherwise. Hoiwever, from what I have read, this should remain limited. Nevertheless what I assume comes from the fact that France retain the ability to replace destroyed satellites. EMP shouldn't bother France that much. With its infrastructures fairly in shape, it must be able to replace the damaged electronic as soon as the exchange dries up.

[James Langham]

I didn't say otherwise. Hoiwever, from what I have read, this should remain limited. Nevertheless what I assume comes from the fact that France retain the ability to replace destroyed satellites. EMP shouldn't bother France that much. With its infrastructures fairly in shape, it must be able to replace the damaged electronic as soon as the exchange dries up.

Both US and USSR will want to (and initially will have the capability to) take down French satellites. Also an airburst to induce EMP in France remains a high priority. French launches will not be easy either - getting the satellite to central Africa won't be easy (assuming that the facilities remain intact - a small nuke will soon stop that even if local conditions don't).

[natehale1971]

Both US and USSR will want to (and initially will have the capability to) take down French satellites. Also an airburst to induce EMP in France remains a high priority. French launches will not be easy either - getting the satellite to central Africa won't be easy (assuming that the facilities remain intact - a small nuke will soon stop that even if local conditions don't).

Also both sides would be taking out each other's sats and other nations sats to make sure that they can't be 'hijacked' and used by the other side. Someome brought up that civilian sats getting used for military purposes, the same thing kind of goes along with it.

[ArmySGT.]

Also both sides would be taking out each other's sats and other nations sats to make sure that they can't be 'hijacked' and used by the other side. Someome brought up that civilian sats getting used for military purposes, the same thing kind of goes along with it.

The DoD purchased "Iridium" Satellite phone network.

[Graebarde]

French launches will not be easy either - getting the satellite to central Africa won't be easy (assuming that the facilities remain intact - a small nuke will soon stop that even if local conditions don't).

The French launch facilities are in South America I think, NOT Africa, not that it makes a difference to the ease of getting them to the launch.

[natehale1971]

i've been doing some reading on Sats... namely to help with my extensive timeline for my t2k campaign, so i can put when manned and unmanned space missions occured.

I've been reading about the Graveyard Orbit... that when a sat is reaching the end of it's operational life, it fires up it's manevering rockets to put itself into the graveyard orbit to keep down the amount of space junk in operational orbits. it's made me wonder about the possiblity that the graveyard orbit could have been used for covert survellience and communications sats to be put up and avoid being spotted by enemy anti-sat weapons.

From what i've read the Graveyard Oribt is higher than thsoe orbits that woul have allowed for the sat to burn up on re-entry. and would more than likely be out of the range of anti-sat weapons.

Or am I getting this info wrong? what are the upper limits of anti-sat weapons that can be launched from our fighters or ICBMs?

[ArmySGT.]

The French launch facilities are in South America I think, NOT Africa, not that it makes a difference to the ease of getting them to the launch.

French Guyana. North East side of the South American Continent. An equatorial country.

[Mohoender]

Both US and USSR will want to (and initially will have the capability to) take down French satellites. Also an airburst to induce EMP in France remains a high priority. French launches will not be easy either - getting the satellite to central Africa won't be easy (assuming that the facilities remain intact - a small nuke will soon stop that even if local conditions don't).

Lets assume this assumption is true.
What ASAT capabilities of both US and USSR would be by 1995?
What further ASAT capabilities would be added between 1995 and 1997?

I have given my own take on that but I would love to see your ideas on it. I can agree with whatever you all say but not until I know what you think these capabilities are.

By 1988, US ASAT program has been cancelled (15 missile inculding 5 used for trial) and USSR has cancelled its old ASAT program and replaced it by a ASAT missile program similar to the one cancelled by US. However, it only produced 6 missiles (at most and we are not even sure they worked). Was this still the case in T2K? If no, what further developments have been made? If yes, when did the programs were started over again and accelerated, changed and what did they produce?

At the time you had about 2000 working satellites in orbit. Won't they launch a few more with the perspective of war? If you assume US has not cancelled its ASAT program and fielded 112 missiles by 1995 and if you assume that an EMP burst destroy satellite in a radious of 80km (that is the figure I came up with from my reading but I can be wrong), how many satellite can they put down? Won't they focus on a certain type of satellite?

Please, I want more than one thinking on all these questions.:);):rolleyes::D

[ArmySGT.]

If you know your enemies radios, then you know the probable frequencies they will be using. If freq hopping harder sure. Still possible. Your not trying to decode it just follow it back.

Harder to get a receiver between the satellite and its ground receiving station. to get the best fix on the transmitter.

Just back trace the signal to the active satellite. Home on signal, kinetic kill weapon.

Now we can do it from an AEGIS destroyer, don't need an F-15 or B-52 to get the missile aloft.

[Mohoender]

Now we can do it from an AEGIS destroyer, don't need an F-15 or B-52 to get the missile aloft.

I agree but in T2K that capability doesn't exist and never will.

[James Langham]

French Guyana. North East side of the South American Continent. An equatorial country.

Oops....

So much for my memory...

[Mohoender]

Oops....

So much for my memory...

Actually my step father is currently working in Yaounde (Cameroon) and has come back from Kourou (French Guyana) a few years ago. Basically, if not for the people he would not see the difference: same plants, same humidity, same temperatures, same ground types. Therefore, your mistake is understandable.;)

[dragoon500ly]

needless to say, the actual range of the US ASAT is still classified, but enough comments have been leaked over the years to indicate that it was only capable of reaching low-earth orbit. Its primary targets were the various reconnaissance platforms. The communications and GPS platforms are at a higher orbit, these would have more likely fallen victim to the various EMP pulses, especially in the 1995-1998 time frame.

[Legbreaker]

Something else to think about is that you don't necessarily need to attack the satellite itself to render it useless. If it could be "persuaded" (by hacking) to fire it's thrusters and destabilise it's orbit it may just destroy itself (could use up all it's fuel before it's true owners regain control).
Also attacking and destroying ground stations could have the same result - updates and orbit corrections would be near impossible to upload to the satellite and end up with the same result as direct hacking (re-entry).
Physical destruction of ground stations isn't all that necessary either - as previously mentioned EMP will wreak havoc on computer systems and in the time it takes to conduct repairs...

All in all satellites are pretty damn vulnerable in a world wide war involving nukes. In a conventional war then yes, you'd probably need to go after the satellites themselves as the level of destruction on the ground just isn't going to be a major problem - control can be handed off to another ground station whereas EMP is likely to render ALL ground stations out of action at least temporarily. Conventional warfare just isn't going to cut it to eliminate more than a small percentage of satellites.

[Fusilier]

The communications and GPS platforms are at a higher orbit, these would have more likely fallen victim to the various EMP pulses, especially in the 1995-1998 time frame.

I have my doubts at to EMP knocking out all of the satellites. All satellites are shielded against natural electromagnetic radiation to some length, military much more than commercial. But even commercial ones have stood the test of time up against large amounts of incoming electromagnetic radiation and have continued working. It's a hostile environment in which they are positioned.

I also am hesitant to think one side would sacrifice all of its own (and allied) satellites in the area just to take out some of the enemy's. EMP doesn't discriminate whose satellites get damaged and who's doesn't and I can't see either side wanted to go blind just to blind their opponent.

[Legbreaker]

All satellites are shielded against natural electromagnetic radiation to some length...

This is a good point, however as stated, you don't necessarily have to attack and take out the satellites directly to render them useless/destroy them.
Take out the control interface with them and they might as well not exist.

GPS systems and portable uplink units may work for a while, but without updates and corrections from the ground, they will soon fall out of position and either burn up on re-entry or be otherwise rendered completely useless.

[dragoon500ly]

To be sure, these platforms are shielded against solar winds and the radiation belt, but nobody really knows just how resistant they would be following EMP from a few hundred nukes.

But it all boils down to the canon material does it not?

[Legbreaker]

Very true, and being essentially just a game, we can throw physics out the window if we as GMs so feel.

[Mohoender]

Very true, and being essentially just a game, we can throw physics out the window if we as GMs so feel.

GM.. Two letters that define petty lunch table tyrants.:p:D

[dragoon500ly]

You say that like it is a bad thing! :D

And I deny any rumors that I am a killer GM!

[natehale1971]

I've been looking up some info on the GPS Satellite Network... and this is what i've found.

22 February 1989 - 09 October 1985. Block I GPS Satellite network (12). NAVSTAR-1 to NAVSTAR-12

14 February 1989 - 1 October 1990. Block II GPS Satellite network (9). NAVSTAR II-1 to NAVSTAR II-9

26 November 1990 - 06 November 1997. Block IIA GPS satellite network (19). GPS IIA-1 to GPS IIA-19

17 January 1997 - 06 November 2004. Block IIR satellite network (13). GPS IIR-1 to GPS IIR-13

26 September 2005 - 17 August 2009. Block IIR-M satellite network (8). IIR-M-1 to GPS IIR-M-8


I also found out about GLONASS satellite navigation system network... the soviet union and the Eastern Block's version of GPS. I also am reading about a Chinese AND a European version of GPS.

12 October 1982 - 10 December 1995. The Soviet Union launches into orbit the Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) network, their answer to the American Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite network.


With this kind of coverage, it's very possible that GPS (or it's equivilents) could still be operating in the Cannon Twilight 2000 timeline.

[mikeo80]

GM.. Two letters that define petty lunch table tyrants.:p:D

Now wait just a moment there....I represent that remark!!!! :p

My $0.02

Mike

[mikeo80]

I had forgotten all of the hoopla about this launch. It happened in 2008. Well outside of the T2K universe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon

However, these things had to be in development in the mid 1990's. It stands to reason that under the pressure of war, the R&D would have been pushed as hard as possible.

Could this have been deployed? Hard to say. The Ticonderoga class Aegis cruiser was introduced in 1983.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ticonderoga_class_cruiser

The Arleigh Burke class destroyer was indroduced in 1988.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke_class_destroyer

Both types had the Aegis fire control and detection system.

So it is possible that the US ASAT program would have continued as others have speculated. The F-15 Eagles and B-52 BUFF's would also have been available as launch platforms.

My $0.02

Mike

[Mohoender]

You say that like it is a bad thing! :D

And I deny any rumors that I am a killer GM!

No I only say it from pure pride. I even managed to kill half a group of player while playing Starwars. They died as they blown up half a city.:D

During another game, a group of my players managed to flunk their last mission, giving ultimate victory to the Empire remnants.:rolleyes::cool:

And I'm the kindest of our small group of GM.;)

[Legbreaker]

With this kind of coverage, it's very possible that GPS (or it's equivalents) could still be operating in the Cannon Twilight 2000 timeline.

Not a chance I'm afraid.
The GPS satellites require almost constant updating of their internal clocks due to "time dilation". Basically time runs slower in space than it does here on earth (yes, this has been scientifically proven believe it or not), and without the ground stations updating them at least daily, they rapidly become totally useless as navigation markers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime
The difference may only be tiny fractions of a second but that can translate to tens, even hundreds of metres of error accumulating daily without the ground station updates.
Spread that over a year to say mid to late 1998 and GPS might tell you what town you're near, but don't even think about trying to do anything that requires precision such as calling artillery.
Then there's the small issue of needing at least three satellites for a decent fix. With each satellite out of whack so to speak, errors could be compounded even more. Also given that many may well have been knocked out during the war for a variety of reasons, and that they only work when in line of sight, you might get only a few minutes every day of enough satellites over your head.

[Mohoender]

Since Einstein, I have no problem to believe it.;)

[atiff]

The difference may only be tiny fractions of a second but that can translate to tens, even hundreds of metres of error accumulating daily without the ground station updates.

For reference:
"One of the most significant error sources is the GPS receiver's clock. Because of the very large value of the speed of light, c, the estimated distances from the GPS receiver to the satellites, the pseudoranges, are very sensitive to errors in the GPS receiver clock; for example an error of one microsecond (0.000 001 second) corresponds to an error of 300 metres (980 ft)."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gps#Correcting_a_GPS_receiver.27s_clock

[Legbreaker]

It appears that GPS error is approximately 7 metres per 12 hours, or about five kilometres per year if uncorrected. With the unlikelyhood of corrections being implemented since November 1997, by mid 2000, the GPS system (even if satellites still existed) would be out by over ten miles. On the modern battlefield, even in today's civilian world, that sort of error renders GPS totally useless for navigation, let alone plotting artillery, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_dilation#Velocity_and_gravitational_time_dila tion_combined-effect_tests
Conventional navigation with map and compass, or even by the stars, is realistically the only way to go in T2k, even in flat featureless terrain such as the desert.

[Targan]

Conventional navigation with map and compass, or even by the stars, is realistically the only way to go in T2k, even in flat featureless terrain such as the desert.

For applications such as navigation at sea accurate time keeping is essential (for longitude anyway, latitude is easier to determine). Luckily things never got so out of hand in the T2K universe that people forgot the date, so assuming you can source almanacs listing the future sunrise and sunsets for given locations on given dates you can reset timepieces to have accurate time.

[natehale1971]

The reason i was talking a bout the GPS sats possibliy being still up there... wasn't about the GPS being used for navigation purposes... but communications. I am wondering couldn't the surviving sats be used for communications?

[ArmySGT.]

If you want to.

Using the Manual you can set the time yourself in a PLGR.

[Legbreaker]

IF you know where to point your dish...
AND have the current access codes...

It's really nowhere near as straight forward as it might seem on paper. Without some seriously good maths involved, and the tech to back it up, it's just not worth the effort.

And all that presumes the satellites are still up and functioning.

As for communication, the code/protocol issue is the same. Without the ability to access what is essentially a secure system, and a lot of luck given the complete lack of maintenance of the system since late 1997, using them for communication is a lost cause.

It may seem easy enough to do today, but that's because it's 2011 and we've got MASSES of technology working to make the job easier that most of us aren't even aware off. Wind the clock back 15 years or so and it was a different situation. Then apply bucketloads of war damage to the system and you're looking at the same level of capability which was available around 1970 (at best).

[Mohoender]

For applications such as navigation at sea accurate time keeping is essential (for longitude anyway, latitude is easier to determine). Luckily things never got so out of hand in the T2K universe that people forgot the date, so assuming you can source almanacs listing the future sunrise and sunsets for given locations on given dates you can reset timepieces to have accurate time.

Time determination shouldn't be that much of a problem IMO. I still have a fair amount of mechanical watches around and I'm sure many people do. I bet, that in T2K having or finding one will be a major issue for those wanting to get home.

Then, within each thinking group you would find a navigator (including on land) whose task would be to find his way around using compas, keeping track of time and day and eventually using a sextant (To note, I just read that astronauts had used instruments based on the same principles).

If a group doesn't have a navigator, it should think about finding or forming one. Then, eventual inacuracies or mistakes might lead to very interesting games. Moreover, protecting a good navigator might become a game in the game.

[Targan]

Time determination shouldn't be that much of a problem IMO. I still have a fair amount of mechanical watches around and I'm sure many people do. I bet, that in T2K having or finding one will be a major issue for those wanting to get home.

Then, within each thinking group you would find a navigator (including on land) whose task would be to find his way around using compas, keeping track of time and day and eventually using a sextant (To note, I just read that astronauts had used instruments based on the same principles).

If a group doesn't have a navigator, it should to think about finding or forming one. Then, eventual inacuracies or mistakes might lead to very interesting games.

Very true. The reason I mentioned navigation at sea requiring accurate time keeping is that on land you can use combinations of navigational techniques, including dead reckinging and the use of fixed landmarks, to correct any navigational errors. At sea, in the absence of any landmarks, accurate navigational techniques using chronometers and sextants becomes essential.

Navigation is one of my stronger skills. Spent quite a bit of time at sea as a child. Blitzed navigation during basic training.

[Mohoender]

Navigation is one of my stronger skills. Spent quite a bit of time at sea as a child. Blitzed navigation during basic training.

I'm quite good on land but absolutely not at sea or in the air. Have a character with your skils in a players group and my character would be willing to die in order to save your butt at all costs.

[Mohoender]

Targ

Given what you just pointed out, I realise that the navigation skill is fairly innacurate. It should be completed by two sub-skils : land navigation and spacial navigation (concerning air, sea and space) with the second sub skill being independent and unavailable unless developped in way or another.

[Targan]

That's kind of you to say Mo but if we were at sea and there was anyone available who'd successfully used a sextant in the last 15 years they should be your first choice. I'm waaay out of practice. :)

In terms of splitting navigation into sub-skills, my playing group is way ahead of you. Navigation skill in Gunmaster has multiple sub-skills. Survival skill can also be used for land navigation but only in terms of basic pathfinding, it is not the primary skill you'd uuse if using a map and compass.