Webstral
09-03-2011, 06:12 PM
Having just acquired the NATO Vehicle Guide, I want to go back to a couple of interpretations of the v1 chronology I have laid out in the past. Rather than re-write old material, I’ll reference items I retrieved from days gone by.
In early February, Pact forces in western Czechoslovakia attacked NATO forces in southern Germany. The attackers were Soviet and Czechoslovak. The defenders were mostly Dutch. SOUTHAG, under Dutch command since mid-December, gave ground in a bitterly-fought contest that took the Soviets by surprise. The Soviet leadership had intended to inflict such losses on the Dutch Army that the Netherlands would follow France and Belgium out of the war. Instead, the resolve and skill of the Dutch troops as they waged their fighting withdrawal sapped the Pact offensive of its strength. The arrival of German and American reinforcements enabled SOUTHAG to switch to the counteroffensive; within fourteen days, Pact forces had been pushed back to their start lines.
Hackett’s idea seems well-suited to explaining the events of the v1 chronology. I’ll outline the events I believe are important:
• Dec 1997: Anglo-American (and Canadian) forces cross the border.
• Feb 1997: Soviet and Czechoslovak forces launch an offensive into southern Germany but lack the strength to make any significant gains.
• Apr 1997: NATO launches its offensive across Poland
• Jul 1997: German forces cross into the USSR
• Jul 1997: The USSR initiates tactical nuclear war
There is a lengthy hiatus between the Anglo-American entrance into the war in Germany and the start of offensive operations into Poland. There are several possible explanations for the long pause. My preferred explanation is that the fresh Anglo-American forces hit the exhausted Pact forces in Germany like a pile driver. Comparisons between the NATO attack across the North German Plain in the DDR and Operation Desert Storm are not entirely out of place, although neither the pace of the advance nor the very low casualty rate are replicated. Still, the fresh and intact heavy divisions of III, V, and VII US Corps, and I and II British Corps, supported by the full weight of the USAF in Europe, proves overwhelming against the Pact defenders. After some brutal fighting, NATO forces close up on the borders of the DDR and stop.
At this point, the Western Allies want to call a halt to the fighting. They’ve gotten what they wanted, and it’s cost them a pretty hefty bag of casualties. The Germans had been severely handled. The Anglo-Americans have gotten their noses bloodied, too. German reunification is a fact. To the Western way of thinking, the Soviets ought to respond to a peace initiative. The Soviets have gotten the worst of the fighting in Germany. The Soviets are still bogged down in China. Surely they will make peace if NATO guarantees that there won’t be further action against the Pact.
Unfortunately for the West, there has been a regime change. This was inevitable, really. The German invasion of the DDR in October [surely would have] prompted calls for full-scale war with the West before NATO could marshal its full strength. I have personified this idea with Premier Dmitri Danilov and Defense Minister Sergei Sauronski. Danilov wants to keep the war with Germany limited to war with Germany because he doesn’t believe the Soviet Union can win a conventional war against NATO or even afford to wage one. Sauronski believes the war has already started; therefore, the Soviets should use their advantage of in-place forces and shorter lines of communication to achieve the greatest possible advantage before the European allies can mobilize and before US forces can be brought to Europe. Danilov wins the argument. When the English speaking members of NATO join the fight, Danilov pays with his life.
Sauronski isn’t about to make peace with Germany still united. The USSR still has an advantage in the median term because true mobilization of Western manpower and resources will take a year or more. The Soviet Union can go to full mobilization, launch a counteroffensive in Europe, and then call for a peace that will reestablish the status quo ante bellum in Europe at the bare minimum. Once that is done, the USSR can finish business with China once and for all.
The Pact offensive in February is intended to peel away members of NATO. France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece already have quit. Although the Soviets don’t have the strength they need to go over to the offensive in Europe by February, they want to influence the nascent peace talks in Geneva. Although the Netherlands and Denmark have refused to help reunify Germany, they have remained part of the NATO alliance. Dutch and Danish forces have assumed control over the southern part of Germany where US forces have been based. Sauronski orders the February invasion of southern Germany to inflict such casualties on the Dutch that the Netherlands will drop out of the alliance or make a separate peace. Unfortunately, he overestimates the offensive capabilities of the Pact forces in western Czechoslovakia while underestimating the fighting abilities and resolve of the Dutch. The crisis passes as Canadian, Danish, and German forces, liberally supported by NATO air power, arrive in southern Germany.
Having reached their stop line along the Oder in December, 1996, NATO debates what to do next. According to canon, the war in North Korea is on by this time. I believe the war in Iran has begun as well. If one accepts my proposition that a Soviet re-armed and re-equipped Iraq invades Kuwait for a second time, then the West is faced with this issue, too. The West has a lot to do. The situation in Germany is less favorable than it looks, since the US has supplied the FRG with large quantities of fuel, ammunition, and what parts the armies had in common. This materiel was consumerd in the fighting, along with a host of high-tech items that helped win the victory but which are now in short supply. The Bundeswehr is reeling, the Luftwaffe is shattered, and Anglo-American-Canadian forces have not had the cheap victory the Coalition enjoyed in Operation Desert Storm. France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece all have dropped out of NATO. East Germany is a shambles, and West Germany has suffered considerable damage from enemy air and missile action. As SACEUR is certain to tell POTUS, these are not promising conditions for further action in Northern Europe, save rolling back the Soviets in Norway.
I think this is why we see a break in the action between December and February. The US is hoping the Soviets will call it quits. The Soviets greatly diminish their operational tempo in Northern Europe, though for different reasons. The Soviets know they have lost East Germany for now, but the Kremlin is determined not to throw in the towel. Having overthrown Danilov for failing to secure victory, Sauronski finds himself on the horns of the same dilemma. His solution is a new sitzkrieg that he intends to use to fortify Poland and build up for an offensive into southern Germany.
The February offensive by Soviet and Czechoslovak forces in southern Germany is politically motivated. Anglo-American forces remain in the DDR, along with the most combat ready of the German divisions. Security in southern Germany has been passed to the Dutch, who are still on the fence about the business of reuniting Germany but who have not dropped out of NATO. The fully mobilized Dutch Army has been reinforced by elements of the Bundeswehr and the Danish Army, but the show in the south is really a Dutch one. The Kremlin intends to inflict massive losses on Dutch forces in southern Germany, which will hopefully lead to the Netherlands also dropping out of NATO. The offensive does not go off as planned. SOUTHAG, under a Dutch general and hastily reinforced by other NATO forces, pushes the Pact back into Czechoslovakia in a two-week campaign.
The NATO Vehicle Guide seems to support this interpretation of events. A few modifications to unit histories are necessary to make the pattern fit as well as I’d like.
According to the section on the Netherlands, 1st and 4th Mechanized Divisions entered Germany on 7 JAN 97. The recon elements of I Ne Corps are listed as having fought in southern Germany in 1997. 5th Mechanized Division is listed as having crossed into Germany “as the fighting in southern Germany grew in intensity” to go into a reserve position around Koln. The three reserve infantry brigades listed are supposed to have remained in the Netherlands throughout 1997 on internal security missions.
According to the section on the Royal Danish Army, Denmark declared war on the USSR “after Soviet air strikes hit several Danish ports in February 1997”. The Jutland Mechanized Division is supposed to have come under the command of I Ge Corps at this point. We know the division took part in the drive across Poland. The Slesvig Regimental Combat Team was mobilized on 10 OCT 96 and “entered the field” on 09 MAR 97. The SRCT “…was involved in the fighting in southern Germany in the spring of 1997”.
We also know that the West German Territorial Army was involved in the war, although by July 2000 it appears to have been absorbed into the Regular Army structure. At least once, mention is made in the NATO Vehicle Guide of German Territorial Army units being absorbed as replacements for regular units. Also, we know from the v1 chronology that when Italy invaded southern Germany in 1997, Italian forces fought German Territorial Army units. In the 1980’s, the Territorial Army fielded six brigades.
Putting all of this together with a few minor modifications can give us a broad picture of who on the NATO side was involved in the fighting in southern Germany in February 1997. The bulk of NATO combat power on the Central Front remains in the former DDR deployed along the borders of Poland and Czechoslovakia. I Ne Corps moves into southern Germany in January to replace some of the US forces in the former DDR. German Territorial Army brigades and a few American units remain in the former American sector.
Pact forces build in western Czechoslovakia. The Pact practices good deception warfare by playing on NATO expectations that any offensive action will be aimed at East Germany. NATO intelligence believes that any attacks into the Bavarian Forest will focus on flanking the main NATO line running from Nurnberg through Dresden to the Oder River. Dutch forces and the German Territorial Army are placed along a line from Nurnberg to the Austrian border at the Danube.
Pact forces (Soviet and Czechoslovak) strike into Germany apparently aimed at Munich. For three days, NATO remains convinced that this attack is in support of a more general action. The Pact does its best to support this impression by stepping up actions across the Central Front. Among these actions are attacks on Denmark to drive the Danes out of the NATO alliance. The Dutch and German forces under I Ne Corps fall back towards Munich, opening a hole in Allied lines west of Nurnberg that NATO expects the Pact to try to exploit. The Dutch and Germans are ordered to stand fast until reserves can be brought up. The Pact has succeeded in keeping the real intent of the offensive—the destruction of I Ne Corps for political purposes—hidden from SACEUR. The Dutch send 5th Mechanized Division south to support I Ne Corps.
Within a few days, however, shrewd Western analysts put the pieces together. The lack of any significant action along the Czech-East German border makes them suspicious. A renewed air offensive against air bases, logistical bases, and lines of communication in northwest Czechoslovakia convince SACEUR that the forces in place lack the strength to break the existing NATO defensive line in southeastern East Germany. Air support for the Dutch and Germans increases.
Having declared war on the USSR, Denmark insists that the Royal Danish Army by used in support of the I Ne Corps in southern Germany. The Jutland Mechanized Division and Slesvig Regimental Combat Team are shipped south. In a political move meant to show faith in the Netherlands, SACEUR designates the extreme south of Germany as SOUTHAG under a Dutch general.
I don’t know which Soviet and Czechoslovak forces are involved in the fighting. Off the top of my head, I’m thinking that the numbers will be limited—six divisions, I think. A large force gathering in southwestern Czechoslovakia will draw unwanted attention to the area. The Pact wants to accomplish something specific, not the conquest of southern Germany. A Soviet army with 3-4 divisions and a Czechoslovak corps-sized formation seem about right to me.
Webstral
In early February, Pact forces in western Czechoslovakia attacked NATO forces in southern Germany. The attackers were Soviet and Czechoslovak. The defenders were mostly Dutch. SOUTHAG, under Dutch command since mid-December, gave ground in a bitterly-fought contest that took the Soviets by surprise. The Soviet leadership had intended to inflict such losses on the Dutch Army that the Netherlands would follow France and Belgium out of the war. Instead, the resolve and skill of the Dutch troops as they waged their fighting withdrawal sapped the Pact offensive of its strength. The arrival of German and American reinforcements enabled SOUTHAG to switch to the counteroffensive; within fourteen days, Pact forces had been pushed back to their start lines.
Hackett’s idea seems well-suited to explaining the events of the v1 chronology. I’ll outline the events I believe are important:
• Dec 1997: Anglo-American (and Canadian) forces cross the border.
• Feb 1997: Soviet and Czechoslovak forces launch an offensive into southern Germany but lack the strength to make any significant gains.
• Apr 1997: NATO launches its offensive across Poland
• Jul 1997: German forces cross into the USSR
• Jul 1997: The USSR initiates tactical nuclear war
There is a lengthy hiatus between the Anglo-American entrance into the war in Germany and the start of offensive operations into Poland. There are several possible explanations for the long pause. My preferred explanation is that the fresh Anglo-American forces hit the exhausted Pact forces in Germany like a pile driver. Comparisons between the NATO attack across the North German Plain in the DDR and Operation Desert Storm are not entirely out of place, although neither the pace of the advance nor the very low casualty rate are replicated. Still, the fresh and intact heavy divisions of III, V, and VII US Corps, and I and II British Corps, supported by the full weight of the USAF in Europe, proves overwhelming against the Pact defenders. After some brutal fighting, NATO forces close up on the borders of the DDR and stop.
At this point, the Western Allies want to call a halt to the fighting. They’ve gotten what they wanted, and it’s cost them a pretty hefty bag of casualties. The Germans had been severely handled. The Anglo-Americans have gotten their noses bloodied, too. German reunification is a fact. To the Western way of thinking, the Soviets ought to respond to a peace initiative. The Soviets have gotten the worst of the fighting in Germany. The Soviets are still bogged down in China. Surely they will make peace if NATO guarantees that there won’t be further action against the Pact.
Unfortunately for the West, there has been a regime change. This was inevitable, really. The German invasion of the DDR in October [surely would have] prompted calls for full-scale war with the West before NATO could marshal its full strength. I have personified this idea with Premier Dmitri Danilov and Defense Minister Sergei Sauronski. Danilov wants to keep the war with Germany limited to war with Germany because he doesn’t believe the Soviet Union can win a conventional war against NATO or even afford to wage one. Sauronski believes the war has already started; therefore, the Soviets should use their advantage of in-place forces and shorter lines of communication to achieve the greatest possible advantage before the European allies can mobilize and before US forces can be brought to Europe. Danilov wins the argument. When the English speaking members of NATO join the fight, Danilov pays with his life.
Sauronski isn’t about to make peace with Germany still united. The USSR still has an advantage in the median term because true mobilization of Western manpower and resources will take a year or more. The Soviet Union can go to full mobilization, launch a counteroffensive in Europe, and then call for a peace that will reestablish the status quo ante bellum in Europe at the bare minimum. Once that is done, the USSR can finish business with China once and for all.
The Pact offensive in February is intended to peel away members of NATO. France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece already have quit. Although the Soviets don’t have the strength they need to go over to the offensive in Europe by February, they want to influence the nascent peace talks in Geneva. Although the Netherlands and Denmark have refused to help reunify Germany, they have remained part of the NATO alliance. Dutch and Danish forces have assumed control over the southern part of Germany where US forces have been based. Sauronski orders the February invasion of southern Germany to inflict such casualties on the Dutch that the Netherlands will drop out of the alliance or make a separate peace. Unfortunately, he overestimates the offensive capabilities of the Pact forces in western Czechoslovakia while underestimating the fighting abilities and resolve of the Dutch. The crisis passes as Canadian, Danish, and German forces, liberally supported by NATO air power, arrive in southern Germany.
Having reached their stop line along the Oder in December, 1996, NATO debates what to do next. According to canon, the war in North Korea is on by this time. I believe the war in Iran has begun as well. If one accepts my proposition that a Soviet re-armed and re-equipped Iraq invades Kuwait for a second time, then the West is faced with this issue, too. The West has a lot to do. The situation in Germany is less favorable than it looks, since the US has supplied the FRG with large quantities of fuel, ammunition, and what parts the armies had in common. This materiel was consumerd in the fighting, along with a host of high-tech items that helped win the victory but which are now in short supply. The Bundeswehr is reeling, the Luftwaffe is shattered, and Anglo-American-Canadian forces have not had the cheap victory the Coalition enjoyed in Operation Desert Storm. France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece all have dropped out of NATO. East Germany is a shambles, and West Germany has suffered considerable damage from enemy air and missile action. As SACEUR is certain to tell POTUS, these are not promising conditions for further action in Northern Europe, save rolling back the Soviets in Norway.
I think this is why we see a break in the action between December and February. The US is hoping the Soviets will call it quits. The Soviets greatly diminish their operational tempo in Northern Europe, though for different reasons. The Soviets know they have lost East Germany for now, but the Kremlin is determined not to throw in the towel. Having overthrown Danilov for failing to secure victory, Sauronski finds himself on the horns of the same dilemma. His solution is a new sitzkrieg that he intends to use to fortify Poland and build up for an offensive into southern Germany.
The February offensive by Soviet and Czechoslovak forces in southern Germany is politically motivated. Anglo-American forces remain in the DDR, along with the most combat ready of the German divisions. Security in southern Germany has been passed to the Dutch, who are still on the fence about the business of reuniting Germany but who have not dropped out of NATO. The fully mobilized Dutch Army has been reinforced by elements of the Bundeswehr and the Danish Army, but the show in the south is really a Dutch one. The Kremlin intends to inflict massive losses on Dutch forces in southern Germany, which will hopefully lead to the Netherlands also dropping out of NATO. The offensive does not go off as planned. SOUTHAG, under a Dutch general and hastily reinforced by other NATO forces, pushes the Pact back into Czechoslovakia in a two-week campaign.
The NATO Vehicle Guide seems to support this interpretation of events. A few modifications to unit histories are necessary to make the pattern fit as well as I’d like.
According to the section on the Netherlands, 1st and 4th Mechanized Divisions entered Germany on 7 JAN 97. The recon elements of I Ne Corps are listed as having fought in southern Germany in 1997. 5th Mechanized Division is listed as having crossed into Germany “as the fighting in southern Germany grew in intensity” to go into a reserve position around Koln. The three reserve infantry brigades listed are supposed to have remained in the Netherlands throughout 1997 on internal security missions.
According to the section on the Royal Danish Army, Denmark declared war on the USSR “after Soviet air strikes hit several Danish ports in February 1997”. The Jutland Mechanized Division is supposed to have come under the command of I Ge Corps at this point. We know the division took part in the drive across Poland. The Slesvig Regimental Combat Team was mobilized on 10 OCT 96 and “entered the field” on 09 MAR 97. The SRCT “…was involved in the fighting in southern Germany in the spring of 1997”.
We also know that the West German Territorial Army was involved in the war, although by July 2000 it appears to have been absorbed into the Regular Army structure. At least once, mention is made in the NATO Vehicle Guide of German Territorial Army units being absorbed as replacements for regular units. Also, we know from the v1 chronology that when Italy invaded southern Germany in 1997, Italian forces fought German Territorial Army units. In the 1980’s, the Territorial Army fielded six brigades.
Putting all of this together with a few minor modifications can give us a broad picture of who on the NATO side was involved in the fighting in southern Germany in February 1997. The bulk of NATO combat power on the Central Front remains in the former DDR deployed along the borders of Poland and Czechoslovakia. I Ne Corps moves into southern Germany in January to replace some of the US forces in the former DDR. German Territorial Army brigades and a few American units remain in the former American sector.
Pact forces build in western Czechoslovakia. The Pact practices good deception warfare by playing on NATO expectations that any offensive action will be aimed at East Germany. NATO intelligence believes that any attacks into the Bavarian Forest will focus on flanking the main NATO line running from Nurnberg through Dresden to the Oder River. Dutch forces and the German Territorial Army are placed along a line from Nurnberg to the Austrian border at the Danube.
Pact forces (Soviet and Czechoslovak) strike into Germany apparently aimed at Munich. For three days, NATO remains convinced that this attack is in support of a more general action. The Pact does its best to support this impression by stepping up actions across the Central Front. Among these actions are attacks on Denmark to drive the Danes out of the NATO alliance. The Dutch and German forces under I Ne Corps fall back towards Munich, opening a hole in Allied lines west of Nurnberg that NATO expects the Pact to try to exploit. The Dutch and Germans are ordered to stand fast until reserves can be brought up. The Pact has succeeded in keeping the real intent of the offensive—the destruction of I Ne Corps for political purposes—hidden from SACEUR. The Dutch send 5th Mechanized Division south to support I Ne Corps.
Within a few days, however, shrewd Western analysts put the pieces together. The lack of any significant action along the Czech-East German border makes them suspicious. A renewed air offensive against air bases, logistical bases, and lines of communication in northwest Czechoslovakia convince SACEUR that the forces in place lack the strength to break the existing NATO defensive line in southeastern East Germany. Air support for the Dutch and Germans increases.
Having declared war on the USSR, Denmark insists that the Royal Danish Army by used in support of the I Ne Corps in southern Germany. The Jutland Mechanized Division and Slesvig Regimental Combat Team are shipped south. In a political move meant to show faith in the Netherlands, SACEUR designates the extreme south of Germany as SOUTHAG under a Dutch general.
I don’t know which Soviet and Czechoslovak forces are involved in the fighting. Off the top of my head, I’m thinking that the numbers will be limited—six divisions, I think. A large force gathering in southwestern Czechoslovakia will draw unwanted attention to the area. The Pact wants to accomplish something specific, not the conquest of southern Germany. A Soviet army with 3-4 divisions and a Czechoslovak corps-sized formation seem about right to me.
Webstral