Hong Kong

[Rainbow Six]

Does anyone have any thoughts on what might have happened to Hong Kong in a v1 timeline?

I seem to recall that canon had the British Hong Kong garrison fighting the Soviets under Chinese command and eventually linking up with the Americans near the Yalu (although I might be getting v1 and v2 confused here?). I have difficulty accepting that British troops would be placed under Chinese command, and what I'm considering as an alternative is that the UK forces remained in situ in Hong Kong through the first half of 1997 providing local security. So would they then withdraw before 30 June or would the ongoing War be used as an excuse to retain British control, either by negotiation with the Chinese Government or simply by staying in place?

I'm inclined to think that in the short term the latter might be an attractive option, given Hong Kong's importance as a container port (at least before the nukes started flying).

Alternatively, if the troops did withdraw as scheduled, then perhaps they might move to Singapore to provide additional security at the invitation of the Singapore Government, or even to Australia, where they might find themselves stranded and would then assist the Australian Army in repelling the Indonesians? There's even the chance of going to the Portuguese Colony at Macau, which wasnt scheduled for handover until 1999 or - possibly the simplest solution - reinforce the UK Middle East Field Force.

Any thoughts anyone?

[Grimace]

I always felt that the British, using the excuse of the war, would retain control of Hong Kong. There were enough fears in the real world when Hong Kong switched hands and that wasn't during a war. I think everyone, except maybe the Chinese, would want Hong Kong to stay in the hands of the British for stability and security. I'm sure there would be a stipulation that once the hostilities were over, the switch over would occur as was planned...just later. Of course all of that would become moot once the nukes started flying.

[Raellus]

As a target of strategic importance for both the British and Chinese, I can't quite understand why it wouldn't have been targetted by at least a couple of Soviet sub-launched nuclear cruise missiles once the European war kicked off. It doesn't make sense that the Soviets would leave it intact when it could be of use to both their British and Chinese enemies. Of course, I didn't check the target list before posting this so HK could very well have been razed.

[pmulcahy11b]

Pretending Raellus is wrong for a moment (I don't think he is), I would think the British garrison would stay in Hong Kong -- possibly beefed up with Chinese troops and naval forces. Protection of that port and the airport would be a giant priority to the Chinese as well as the British and the US, and if not destroyed, seizure of the port would be important to the Soviets. The use of the port facilities and the airfield to attack the Chinese in the rear would be the only reason I can think of for why the Soviets might not nuke it.

[Rainbow Six]

Thanks for your input guys.

Looks like we're all thinking along the same lines, i.e. that British troops would remain in place after 30 June 97 and that HK would remain in British hands for the forseeable future.

I also agree that it would be a nuclear target, possibly when the Soviets launch strategic strikes in November 97.

Cheers

[Targan]

Alternatively, if the troops did withdraw as scheduled, then perhaps they might move to Singapore to provide additional security at the invitation of the Singapore Government, or even to Australia, where they might find themselves stranded and would then assist the Australian Army in repelling the Indonesians? There's even the chance of going to the Portuguese Colony at Macau, which wasnt scheduled for handover until 1999 or - possibly the simplest solution - reinforce the UK Middle East Field Force.

Any thoughts anyone?
Australian and British troops performed very well together in Malaya in the 1950s and 1960s and I think would therefore quite likely operate very effectively together against the Indonesians.

[boogiedowndonovan]

I'm a bit late to this thread but...

There were some posts on one of the T2k yahoo groups wayyy back (maybe 2-3 years?) regarding Hong Kong. A couple orbats were generated as well (the Ghurka and Royal Hong Kong Regiments were expanded, plus support units)

General consensus was that Hong Kong would remain British. I saved the posts somewhere but I'll post them if/when I find them.

We also did discuss Hong Kong on the townhall forum, but that thread was wiped out in one of various times the forum wiped out posts.

One thing to consider is that the PRC would depend on foreign military aid (V1 mentions this, can't remember V2 or V2.2). Also consider that the Soviet Navy would far outclass anything the PLAN would have afloat and would blockade or destroy Chinese ports with impunity. However, two ports with direct and direct access to the Chinese mainland which the Soviets could not touch would be Hong Kong and Macau.

I can see the T2k British and PRC coming to an agreement regarding the status of Hong Kong (we'll give you military aid, you let us keep Hong Kong). Maybe the Portugese do the same as well.

I also seem to recall the UK Survivors Guide mentioning that a "small" nuke hit the port facilities. I dont know what "small" would entail, possibly a suit case nuke or maybe even an dirty bomb?

I don't see a large number of PRC troops deploying to Hong Kong, but I do see an American presence, Navy and Air Force personnel primarly, possibly some Coasties or Marines for security.

By the way Hong Kong Island was ceded to the British "in perpetuity" (technically forever).

[chico20854]

One thing to consider is that the PRC would depend on foreign military aid (V1 mentions this, can't remember V2 or V2.2). Also consider that the Soviet Navy would far outclass anything the PLAN would have afloat and would blockade or destroy Chinese ports with impunity. However, two ports with direct and direct access to the Chinese mainland which the Soviets could not touch would be Hong Kong and Macau.

...

I don't see a large number of PRC troops deploying to Hong Kong, but I do see an American presence, Navy and Air Force personnel primarly, possibly some Coasties or Marines for security.


The Soviet Navy would have a tough time blockading the Chinese coast for a number of reasons. First, its a long way from Soviet bases. To get from Vladivostok to any Chinese port involves sailing through the straits of Tsushima between Korea and Japan (under the eyes of western intelligence gatherers, who would likely pass information on to the PRC), Petropavlovsk is even farther and Cam Ranh, Vietnam doesn't have the infrastructure to support a large fleet. The Soviet Pacific fleet isn't built for long-term operations like the ones demanded by trying to shut down the long Chinese coast -their underway replenishment fleet is small and not really up to the task. What I think would be more likely is parking Soviet subs off the ports, air raids on the ports (utilizing the massive technological superiority of Soviet aircraft vis a vis Chinese, aiming to destroy the unloading equipment) and mining harbors and sea lanes, using surface ships (both naval and merchant), subs and aircraft. Add to that psychological operations, trying to win a propaganda war to get countries to prevent their ships from carrying supplies to China and scaring sailors away from China-bound voyages. NATO nations can send escorts to their merchantmen, daring the Soviets to attack ostensibly neutral shipping in international waters.

I could see US and other foreign "technical advisors" on the ground in China, directing the maintenance (and to a certain extent, use) of the hodgepodge of foreign high-tech weapons that the PRC government orders from the West after the fall 1995 campaign. Then there is the AVG, the new "Flying Tigers" of American pilots (officially discharged from the US Military) flying top-of-the-line F-15s/16s/18s/20s in Chinese markings. Once the US enters the war the AVG moves to a series of secret airbases in Western China, where it flies top cover for a SAC advanced base in Western China, which launches bomber missions to exploit the relative weakness of Soviet air defenses in Central Asia.

[Tegyrius]

I could see US and other foreign "technical advisors" on the ground in China, directing the maintenance (and to a certain extent, use) of the hodgepodge of foreign high-tech weapons that the PRC government orders from the West after the fall 1995 campaign. Then there is the AVG, the new "Flying Tigers" of American pilots (officially discharged from the US Military) flying top-of-the-line F-15s/16s/18s/20s in Chinese markings. Once the US enters the war the AVG moves to a series of secret airbases in Western China, where it flies top cover for a SAC advanced base in Western China, which launches bomber missions to exploit the relative weakness of Soviet air defenses in Central Asia.
In this context, "Flying Tigers" and F-20s go together like clubs and baby seals. That's awesome.

- C.

[Targan]

I totally dig that idea too.

[boogiedowndonovan]

The Soviet Navy would have a tough time blockading the Chinese coast for a number of reasons. First, its a long way from Soviet bases. To get from Vladivostok to any Chinese port involves sailing through the straits of Tsushima between Korea and Japan (under the eyes of western intelligence gatherers, who would likely pass information on to the PRC), Petropavlovsk is even farther and Cam Ranh, Vietnam doesn't have the infrastructure to support a large fleet. The Soviet Pacific fleet isn't built for long-term operations like the ones demanded by trying to shut down the long Chinese coast -their underway replenishment fleet is small and not really up to the task. What I think would be more likely is parking Soviet subs off the ports, air raids on the ports (utilizing the massive technological superiority of Soviet aircraft vis a vis Chinese, aiming to destroy the unloading equipment) and mining harbors and sea lanes, using surface ships (both naval and merchant), subs and aircraft. Add to that psychological operations, trying to win a propaganda war to get countries to prevent their ships from carrying supplies to China and scaring sailors away from China-bound voyages. NATO nations can send escorts to their merchantmen, daring the Soviets to attack ostensibly neutral shipping in international waters.

I could see US and other foreign "technical advisors" on the ground in China, directing the maintenance (and to a certain extent, use) of the hodgepodge of foreign high-tech weapons that the PRC government orders from the West after the fall 1995 campaign. Then there is the AVG, the new "Flying Tigers" of American pilots (officially discharged from the US Military) flying top-of-the-line F-15s/16s/18s/20s in Chinese markings. Once the US enters the war the AVG moves to a series of secret airbases in Western China, where it flies top cover for a SAC advanced base in Western China, which launches bomber missions to exploit the relative weakness of Soviet air defenses in Central Asia.

Chico, you're right, and I should have worded my navy statement more carefully.

I am probably going to sound like some old codger reminiscing about the old days and "when I was your age, we used to walk to school 10 miles up hill in the snow".

In one of the old townhall forum threads, we talked about foreign "volunteers" and foreign aid to the PRC. Sadly, that thread and a lot of others got lost in one of their crashes. I remember Matt Wiser and Paul Mulcahy offering lots of good ideas. Anyone happen to save those old threads?

[Jason Weiser]

Ask and Ye recieves!

http://www.topbb.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=309&mforum=twilight2000

http://www.topbb.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=130&mforum=twilight2000

http://www.topbb.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=52&mforum=twilight2000

At least, these were the ones I could find...