Twilight Exodus

[Webstral]

Almost three years ago, I started the attached pieces with the intention of describing the movement of people in the US during the run-up to the surgical strategic exchange in November 1997 and through the start of the Second Mexican-American War. I have made no real progress since, and I anticipate making no further progress anytime soon. Rather than continue to sit on them, I'll put them up here. Neither is a finished work. There is much overlap, as "Pulses 03" is the father of "Twilight Exodus", the latter of which is still in its juvenile stages.

Anyway, since the subject of civilian response to the nuclear threat has come up, I'll share these unfinished works rather than wait for perfection.

[mikeo80]

I just finished both articles. They paint a very graphic and realistic portrait of what would happen if a T2K type of event occur.

The possibility of the government calming the public fears in 1995-1996 was possible. However IRL, with the evidence of Katrina, 9/11,and other local catastrophic events, the colapse of the housing/credit market in 2007-2008and the amount of time it took for real help to arrive, I think that the average person would think "OH S**T!!!! And then strike out on his/her/their own. I think that in the real world of 2012, the average person has lost most, if not all faith in government in a crisis situation.

I also think that law officials would be very hard pressed to deal with a "pulse" in today's environment. I agree that survivalists would probably be the first on the road, and would "head for the hills" as fast as their FWD could get them there. I think that today, with the drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan, the govt DOES have access to a large body of trained troops, both regular service and National Guard available for crowd control. I think you would see martial law issued in a very SHORT time after the start of a pulse. And I think that the general rule of thumb would be "Shoot First...Don't bother asking questions".

I think the martial law would be on the order of 24 hour curfew. IF you have a problem, hang a white flag out a door or window for food, red for medical, blue for death. Or something along those lines. IF you stay INSIDE, you will not be shot. If you come out, unless ordered to by authorities, BANG.

I know you said that you would probably not work on these articels again. I hope to see more.

Very well done, Sir!!!!

My $0.02

Mike

[Webstral]

Mike, thanks for the feedback. I must confess, I'm a bit taken aback that you're the only one who has commented. Surely I've said something with which my Twilight: 2000 fellows can take issue. Leg? Olefin? Law? Somebody? Don't tell me I wrote 10,000 words and everybody in this crowd agrees with all of it.

[mikeo80]

Mike, thanks for the feedback. I must confess, I'm a bit taken aback that you're the only one who has commented. Surely I've said something with which my Twilight: 2000 fellows can take issue. Leg? Olefin? Law? Somebody? Don't tell me I wrote 10,000 words and everybody in this crowd agrees with all of it.

My pleasure, Web. I have always enjoyed the various additions to T2K you have added since I joined the forum.

In the T2K timeline, your scenarios would probably play out very close to your description.

One thing that ALWAYS puzzled me was why the President/VP/Sec of State were so close together. I would think that once nukes started to fly in China, the VP would be sent to somewhere like Cheyene Mountain, the Sec State to one of the Presidential Hideouts, Sec of Defense could be positioned, say with Air Force One!!! (Another mistery of T2K, what DID happen to AF1??)

Even with a stand down, politicians are ALWAYS looking out for their hide. I would think it would only be prudent that a rotating schedule of cabinet secretaries would be moved from place to palce to insure Presidential succession.

In Our TL, the U.S. Government would seperate in a hurry with the first nuke. Just as with 9/11, the President is taken to AF1, sent aloft with WHATEVER air cover that can be found anywhere!!! I know "Looking Glass" does not exist in our timeline. But surely an AWACS or two could be scrambled??? Again with whatever air cover is available. Also the existing mid air refuling jets would be scrambled. AF1 can be refueled mid air, so can AWACS and any USAF, Navy or Marine fighters.

My $0.02

Mike

[Targan]

(Another mistery of T2K, what DID happen to AF1??)

A bit of a mystery. From memory, according to canon, AF1 blew up on takeoff for reasons that were never conclusively determined (or possibly were determined but never made public).

[stg58fal]

Haven't commented cuz I haven't downloaded. Most of my web use is on my phone, since the internets absolutely SUCKS where I'm currently living. Downloading on my phone is real dicey and problematic, so I generally don't do it. When I have a chance to download and read, I'll comment.

[Jason Weiser]

I like it, and it overlaps nicely with the media piece I wrote as well as the piece Chico did on the State Guard. One thing you might want to mention? How are the host communities where all these folks are headed to going to react. I cannot imagine there's just going to be official responses. Heck, I expect some locals might not be too happy to see all these "city-folk" and might react violently to it. Some of them might save the National Guard and LE the trouble.

[mikeo80]

I like it, and it overlaps nicely with the media piece I wrote as well as the piece Chico did on the State Guard. One thing you might want to mention? How are the host communities where all these folks are headed to going to react. I cannot imagine there's just going to be official responses. Heck, I expect some locals might not be too happy to see all these "city-folk" and might react violently to it. Some of them might save the National Guard and LE the trouble.

Jason,

Good to hear from you! Hope is now all good on the home front. Matt (your brother?) let us know that you had power again.

I would like to read your comments on the chaos of a T2K scenario involving nukes. Please post again or point me in the right direction.

I agree that "Farmer Joe" is going to be seriously pi$$ed off when the locusts (read city folks) decend on his corn crop. They will strip it clean in a few moments. Probably eat it un cooked.

Realistically, what can "Farmer Joe" do? Yes he can open fire. He will probably kill 2,5,10, whatever. Then he has to reload. And several hundred hungry, desperate people swarm his house. What happens next is best left to the imagination. This scenario will be repeated millions of times.

Then comes the intra-swarm predation. Bill up there got some corn. I didn't. My family is hungry too. I have a gun. Bill is busy eating corn. BANG!!

Once the NG/State Guard/reserves/regulars are mobilized, the damage will all ready be done. And I am assuming that the NG etc show up for roll call. With the nukes flying in the Sino-Russia war and/or Nato-Warsaw war, would you leave your family? Bring them to the Armory? Strike out on your own? Those questions alone are probably worth a thread all to themselves.

My $0.02

Mike

[Jason Weiser]

Jason,

Good to hear from you! Hope is now all good on the home front. Matt (your brother?) let us know that you had power again.

Nope, no relation.:D

I would like to read your comments on the chaos of a T2K scenario involving nukes. Please post again or point me in the right direction.

State Guards (http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeedox4/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/state_guards.doc)

Media during the war (http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeedox4/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/media_in_the_twilight_war.doc)

[mikeo80]

Nope, no relation.:D



State Guards (http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeedox4/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/state_guards.doc)

Media during the war (http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeedox4/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/media_in_the_twilight_war.doc)

I just read the two articles.

WELL DONE, SIR!!!!

My $0.02

Mike

[WallShadow]

Jason,
(SNIP)
I agree that "Farmer Joe" is going to be seriously pi$$ed off when the locusts (read city folks) decend on his corn crop. They will strip it clean in a few moments. Probably eat it un cooked.

Realistically, what can "Farmer Joe" do? Yes he can open fire. He will probably kill 2,5,10, whatever. Then he has to reload. And several hundred hungry, desperate people swarm his house. What happens next is best left to the imagination. This scenario will be repeated millions of times.

Then comes the intra-swarm predation. Bill up there got some corn. I didn't. My family is hungry too. I have a gun. Bill is busy eating corn. BANG!!

Once the NG/State Guard/reserves/regulars are mobilized, the damage will all ready be done. And I am assuming that the NG etc show up for roll call. With the nukes flying in the Sino-Russia war and/or Nato-Warsaw war, would you leave your family? Bring them to the Armory? Strike out on your own? Those questions alone are probably worth a thread all to themselves.
My $0.02
Mike

Mike, this ties into what I posted on the Twilight and F&I thread: setting up a series of defensive fortified farms/homes/buildings/small towns to act as a focal point for mutual defense or gathering place in case of attack just as Pennsylvania, Maryland, an Virginia did. It would also help if the local largest town or cantonment could provide a fast reaction force to drive off or defeat any marauders or raiders. These sites could also provide a forward jumping-off point for the sponsoring cantonment or settlement, probably Harrisburg in this case, to keep an eye on the eastern frontier. This would include dissuading masses of migrating survivors of other disaster areas (Philadelphia) from stripping the cropped landscape bare.

Here in central PA I can see the term "Phillie" being used in the place of "Okie" of the Thirties in their migration. I can also see some veterans of the "Ruins of Warsaw" campaign helping out to enable the "Relokies" to stabilize their lives in a productive way--sort of like the 2300AD Zapamoga organization (which the characters may have helped start by their aid and assistance to the refugees while in Poland!). If the local head honcho were smart, he'd have clearing stations set up in the forward areas, to interview potential settlers. Personally, I'd give admission preference to families with older children, able to provide manpower for reclaiming damaged urban areas for their residence, along the lines of Habitat for Humanity--you help others, they help you fix your own place up after you've contributed adequate man-hours in others' service. Also, the clearing stations could find people with needed skills and knowledge, giving them and their families a boost up the acceptance list.For the rest, they have the choice of joining the transient community housing shelters in exchange for labor or needed items (medicine, ammo, working electronics, gold) or moving on out of the area of control of the cantonment. Naturally, there will be disgruntled, panicked, and unscrupulous elements amongst the refugees, which will cause much concern and difficulty to those sorting out the wheat from the chaff. Also, after the sorting has been completed, those who had been rejected may be in the spirit of revenge or covetousness, planning raids or attacks on the "fat corrupt government bureaucrats" that they have been rejected by.

As mentioned glancingly in Howling Wilderness, the Amish and Mennonite population of Pennsylvania, who are eminently prepared and have the skill sets for survival in this situation, will probably need some unasked-for protection from those who would take advantage of their non-violent nature.

[rcaf_777]

The possibility of the government calming the public fears in 1995-1996 was possible. However IRL, with the evidence of Katrina, 9/11,and other local catastrophic events, the colapse of the housing/credit market in 2007-2008and the amount of time it took for real help to arrive, I think that the average person would think "OH S**T!!!! And then strike out on his/her/their own. I think that in the real world of 2012, the average person has lost most, if not all faith in government in a crisis situation.

Don't you think the President would sign a number of executive orders, freezing prices, wages ect, using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and activiting the military and FEMA plans?

[Jason Weiser]

I just read the two articles.

WELL DONE, SIR!!!!

My $0.02

Mike

Cannot take all the credit, the media article is mine, but the State Guard article belongs to Chico.

[mikeo80]

Don't you think the President would sign a number of executive orders, freezing prices, wages ect, using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and activiting the military and FEMA plans?

I agree that these would all be practical, prudent and productive measures. My only question is would they have any real effect on the "locusts" who swarmed out of our urban areas to escape possible nuclear attack.

Can you see 10+ MILLION people in NY City trying to swarm out into upstate NY or Rural NJ? I can forsee 80-90% death rate in first 96 hours as the highways come to a complete stop. The panicked masses take to their feet. Probably with little or no supplies. Maybe a backpack.

My $0.02

Mike