Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Cdnwolf]

President Vladimir Putin ordered massive military exercises involving troops in western Russia, as pro-Western Ukrainian revolutionaries charted a new course in Kiev.

The military exercise is meant to “check the troops’ readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation’s military security,” said Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who added that Putin ordered the exercise Wednesday afternoon. The troop maneuvers will begin Friday and will last four days, and involve ships of the Baltic and Northern Fleets and the air force.

Shoigu did not make any reference to Ukraine, which shares a border with western Russia, the Associated Press reports. Opposition figures there are setting the groundwork for a new government after toppling the Russia-supported President Viktor Yanukovych. A Russian lawmaker promised Tuesday to protect pro-Russia activists in Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, where Russia has a major naval base.

It remains to be seen what kind of pressure Putin will apply in Ukraine and how he may seek to reassert his control in the country. When the protests began in December, Putin promised Russia would not use military force in Ukraine. “None of this means that we are going to go in there and wave our saber around and send in our troops,” he said at his annual year-end press conference three months before Yanukovych was overthrown. “That’s total rubbish. That is not happening and cannot happen

http://world.time.com/2014/02/26/russia-orders-troop-maneuvers-amid-ukraine-tensions/#ixzz2uSxTVLgU

[Cdnwolf]

From Twilight 2013


One month after the video making its way onto the internet,
Russia launches a major assault into the Ukraine. The Russian
president gives a speech to the media declaring Russia’s right to
preemptively protect itself from threats. In a spectacular show of
combined arms Russia quickly encloses the Rada controlled areas
and begins to tighten the noose. Russia now is effectively fighting
extremists on two fronts, in the Ukraine and in Chechnya.
Russian forces make light work of most of the Rada resistance
except for the areas around the city of Luhansk, the Rada
stronghold. Rada insurgent fighters manage to inflict moderate
losses on Russian troops in heavy fighting in and around the city.
It takes another month of fighting before the Russians declare the
city liberated. Although beaten, the Rada are not destroyed totally.
Many survivors go on to wage an Iraqi-style insurgency against their
Russian occupiers.
The Ukrainian government does not take the intrusion into its
sovereign territory lightly. While they are grateful for the assistance
Russia is providing against Rada elements, the Russian invasion is
seen as an act of war. Rather than engaging the Russian military
however, the Ukrainian military sets up the Luhansk Oblast as
a containment zone. The goal being to keep Russian forces from
engaging targets elsewhere in the country and to be prepared to
repel the Russian invaders once the Rada is put down.
Russia has not been immune to the severe weather seen around
the world. Crop production is at an all time low, and the Russian
people are demanding action from the government. During the
Soviet years, the Ukraine region was often seen as the breadbasket
for Russia being a major source of grain, sugar, meat and milk
products. With the Russian military already in the Ukraine, it does
not take much provocation to extend the action.
Arguing that the current Ukrainian government is incapable of
controlling its people, the Russians again state their rights to protect
their people even against perceived threats. Once the Luhansk
Oblast has been pacified though, Russia begins to target the entire
country for “pacification”.

Copyright © 2008 by 93 Games Studio.

[Targan]

The Russian government must be sorely tempted to annex the Crimean Peninsula right now. Obviously they have no fear of the Ukraine, but the rest of the world wouldn't be happy about it. Then again, there's a couple of provinces of Georgia that are now part of Russia. No-one was prepared to do much about that.

[mikeo80]

The Russian government must be sorely tempted to annex the Crimean Peninsula right now. Obviously they have no fear of the Ukraine, but the rest of the world wouldn't be happy about it. Then again, there's a couple of provinces of Georgia that are now part of Russia. No-one was prepared to do much about that.

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

[stormlion1]

Putin longs to reassemble the old USSR with himself at its head. This will not end well I think.

[.45cultist]

Still interesting for us, whether T2K2.2 or T2013(or a mix of the two).

[Olefin]

uh oh - hmm wonder if I should start stockpiling gas and ammo - especially since a bunch of Russians just stormed the Crimean Parliament building and raised the Russian flag

Twilight 2015 anyone?

[kalos72]

Good thing I already do... :)

This is scary stuff...

[Olefin]

I agree its scary - while I loved fighting my M1A1 across Poland and taking out several Russian AFV's in Texas to hold onto that oil platform I really dont have much desire to do it in real life

hmm - wonder how much that windmill to generate my own power will set me back?

[Cdnwolf]

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

It is interesting that T2013 had the statement that it did about the Ukraine.

My $0.02

Mike

Although the Ukraine is a supplier of UN peacekeeping forces,
no other country comes to their aid. The massive refugee crisis in
Western Europe has many believing the Russian rhetoric. Once the
action in the Ukraine progresses from securing against a possible
nuclear threat to complete pacification, people in France and
Germany for instance side with the Russians. Many European media
outlets begin to portray this action as an expanded security action by
the Russians rather than an invasion. The politicians in Europe are
basically forced to abide by the wishes of their constituents. Russia’s
threat of the oil supply coming through the region into Europe
quiets those European politicians not swayed by the media or the
populace.
The U.S. also abstains from the conflict both militarily and
diplomatically. With no backing from the European members of the
UN Security Council and no willingness to go at it unilaterally, the
U.S. sits this one out. Although that doesn’t mean that U.S.-made
weapons and supplies don’t reach Ukrainian insurgents.

Again from Twilight 2013.

[Targan]

IMHO, there is not much the rest of the world can do if Russia decides to "annex" the Ukraine. Realistically, all anyone could do is point at Mr. Putin and say "You are a very bad boy."

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

[stormlion1]

I think we will have an economic collapse long before we need to worry about an invasion. At that point we will only real have to worry about is Raiders, Government forces stealing stockpiled food, Gas, and ammo for their own use, and UN Intervention. Oh and don't forget the complete devaluing of the US Dollar, Possible Civilian disarmament and low ammunition stockpiles and power outages.

[RN7]

Putin is looking at a map of where ethnic Russians live outside of Russia. He sees the Crimea, the Eastern Ukraine, the entire north of Kazakhstan and parts of Belorussia and the Baltics states and pockets here an there in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

He then looks at a map of the old Soviet Union and sees that the areas were the Russians live are by and large the best parts of it. The oil fields and the space launching site at Baikonur in Kazakhstan are certainly of interest to Russia, and Russia shares a very long border with Kazakhstan who's population in about 40% Russian and Slav. But who wants the deserts and mountains were all the crazy Muslims live in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, and what use are Armenia and Georgia to Russia.

He's then thinking the Eastern Slavs in Belorussia and the Ukraine are really Russians, and to an outsider they might as well be as they share a similar language, religion and culture. Belorussia is now so cosy with Russia that it might as well be part of it, so that just leaves the Ukraine.

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

[Targan]

Events seem to be developing quickly: Ukraine: minister accuses Russia of 'armed invasion' in Crimea (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-28/ukraine-minister-accuses-russia-of-armed-invasion/5291986)

[Rainbow Six]

At this stage I don't think there's a great risk of Russia attempting annex the entirety of the Ukraine. I do however think there is a significant risk of Russia moving to annex the Crimean Peninsula. The area has a really complicated history, particularly from WWII onwards. Nearly 60% of the Crimean population are ethnic Russians and Russia not only has a declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens, Russia has also in the not-too-distant past been accused of issuing Russian passports to ethnic Russians in Crimea. We all remember what happened in Georgia in 2008. I think armed Russian intervention in Crimea is rapidly moving from theoretical to very possible or even likely.

I think this analysis is pretty spot on.

He then looks at the rest of the world and thinks about who might stop him from annexing the Crimea and the Eastern Ukraine. China? I don't think they would even raise an eye lid. Europe? A lot of protests but they are going to do nothing without America. The UN? Ah cmon get real. America? They could cause some real problems if they wanted to, but Obama is focused on Obamacare and immigration reform, and if he couldn't prevent a relatively weak power like Syria from gassing and massacring its own people what is he going to do against a very strong and nuclear armed power like Russia on its own doorstep?

It could be Grim times ahead for the Ukraine

I would agree with pretty much all of this as well. If the Russians do take over the Crimea there might be a bit of tut tutting and finger wagging from some elements in the EU and that will be that. I can't imagine things will be any different in the US. Ukraine will be no different from Georgia if it comes down to a confrontation with Russia - left to its own devices by everyone else and having to make peace on Russia's terms.

[Schone23666]

These so-called "gunmen" that have conveniently seized all the government buildings in the Crimea sound a bit too professional and well-equipped, at least by witness accounts to be just another bunch of pro-Russian street hoodlums. So far they've issued little in way of any demands other than hoisting the Russian flag over the buildings, and one journalist that tried to ask them questions was purportedly answered with a flashbang grenade. Make of that what you will.

Putin is "former" KGB (does anyone REALLY leave any national/state security apparatus?) So of course he's schooled in the ways of how the good'ol Soviet Union used to be. With Russia regaining it's footing somewhat, and with him and his personality cult fully entrenched, I can't see why he wouldn't be a bit tempted to recapture those old "glory days". And sad thing is? As other posters already commented, there's not a lot anyone else is going to do about it.

To know history, is to know the future...

[Olefin]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here - if he tries to annex the Crimea he is looking at war with the Ukraine. And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

This could get very down and very dirty very fast.

[Rainbow Six]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here

I thin Putin knows exactly what he is doing and how far he can go.

And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

I think the Ukrainians also know how far they can go.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

The 2008 Russia - Georgia War took place three months before a US Presidential Election and it didn't make a bit of difference (although I'll grant you the incumbent lost that election)

[Schone23666]

If either side (or god forbid just some idiot) is actually insane enough to blow the lid off of the containment sarcophagus at Chernobyl...

Well, at least we'll finally get a chance to play S.T.A.L.K.E.R. in real life, maybe? :p

Get out of here, S.T.A.L.K.E.R.!

[Olefin]

keep in mind that there is a large Ukranian and Polish (parts of that country used to be part of Poland remember) American community here in the US - plus cutting the military if you see images on TV of Russian tanks invading the Ukraine - great way to see your legacy issue go poof.

plus Georgia is a relatively small country that most people dont have any connection to

and I dont really see the Baltics and Poland seeing anything like that and just sitting on their hands waiting for the hammer to fall on them

dictators have a habit of overreaching (Barbarossa anyone as a great example) - and I think Putin is about to join the club

looks like maybe we need to update that Twilight 2013 timeline for a new start date in March of 2014

[Rainbow Six]

I still think Putin knows exactly what he's doing and where the red lines are that he can't cross. Poland and the Baltic States are full members of the EU and NATO. That's a red line.

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

[Olefin]

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

[Targan]

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

I agree. Russia has no interest getting caught up in a long, painful insurgency while trying to hold occupied territory against furiously resentful locals. Afghanistan and Chechnya were both disasters for Russia. Putin was a KGB colonel, imagine what kind of nasty, brutal stuff he got up to during his former career. He's very much a realist, and very sharp. Trying to occupy large parts of the Ukraine along a wide line of control would be messy.

The Crimean Peninsula, on the other hand, is almost already a fait accompli. Putin has huge amounts of support among the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea, Russia has an (albeit dodgy) historical claim, it has huge amounts of military personnel and materiel right there already and Putin has a nice range of (again mostly dodgy) arguments he can put to the rest of the world as to why a Russian intervention would be in everyone's interests.

Another possibility is that the Russians will engineer an incident or incidents which look like the work of Ukrainian nationalist radicals, to give themselves the trigger they need to just flood the area with their military and border guard forces. I think the situation in the Crimea is very fluid right now and I think it could become very dynamic very quickly.

[Rainbow Six]

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

Don't disagree with any of that.

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

I think the Ukraine had already stated its intention to join NATO and NATO had responded by saying both Ukraine and Georgia would be welcome as members at some unspecified future date

See here from 2008 (Paragraph 23)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-BE92F2F3-B2019D50/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm

And here from 2009 (Paragraph 29)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_52837.htm?mode=pressrelease

So again, don't disagree with you but NATO doesn't seem to be in any great rush over the matter...

[Olefin]

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port?

[Rainbow Six]

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port?

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

[Olefin]

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

[Schone23666]

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

Meh, he wouldn't need the mustache. He doesn't need to impersonate Stalin when his own personality cult is already firmly entrenched. It doesn't help that we live in an age where celebrities, whether they be politicians, movie stars, self help gurus, etc. are nearly worshipped as messiahs. Look at the cult around the recently deceased Hugo Chavez as one recent example.

Putin basically IS Russia at this point, for better or worse.

[stormlion1]

Actually I could see him using the people who seized those government buildings as a pretext. "going in to aid the oppressed Russian Minority" or "Aiding the Russians attempting to breakaway from an oppressive gov't" as a excuse. And I honestly see it turning into a long drawn out low-key affair rather than a big shooting war. As long as Putin has defacto control he can do what he wants until he can make the claim legitimate with phony elections or even UN Sanctions because Russian Forces are acting as Peacekeepers.

[Cdnwolf]

Going to hell fast. Putin gets parliamentary approval to use Russian troops and BBC now reporting two different units already on the ground. Anyone have update information on what troops are in the area?

[Schone23666]

Well, this is going downhill quick...

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-over-ukraines-crimea-region-200052097.html

Ukraine can't do shit for the moment with Russia now owning the Crimea, and Obama was warning of "grave repercussions" if Putin were to take such actions. Now that he has, Obama is either going to have to put up or shut up.

"Military exercise", my ass, Putin knew exactly what he was going to do from the beginning. It kind of reminds me of that dance number by Mel Brooks from the beginning of "To Be or Not To Be". "All I want is Peace! Peace, peace....a little piece of Poland, a little piece of France!"

[stormlion1]

It does bear a remarkable resemblance to the German invasion of Poland, don't it? And the world leaders are going to blink. Be sure of that.

[Schone23666]

It does bear a remarkable resemblance to the German invasion of Poland, don't it? And the world leaders are going to blink. Be sure of that.

Of course. History always goes in cycles...

[kato13]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

[Tegyrius]

Going to hell fast. Putin gets parliamentary approval to use Russian troops and BBC now reporting two different units already on the ground. Anyone have update information on what troops are in the area?

Per last night's Nightwatch report:

Russian military preparations. On 26 February, a Russian news outlet published the following report to explain the increased military activity in western Russia.

"Warriors of the 31st Air-Assault Brigade have already been deployed to Novorossiysk, and from there they will head out to the Black Sea aboard an amphibious landing ship. Several groups of soldiers will be guarding strategic facilities belonging to Russia. As Rustoria has learned from its own source, for several weeks the guys have been in a state of full combat readiness for deployment to Ukraine. The 'contractors' will be serving there to provide security support until the situation is fully stabilized.

"As an aside, the Ulyanovsk Air-Assault Brigade was included in the make-up of the UN "blue helmets" in April 2013, and acquired the status of peacekeeper. At this time it is the only Airborne Troops formation that is 100-percent manned with contract servicemen

"Previously a separate GRU (Main Military Intelligence Directorate) Special Forces brigade was sent to the Crimea from Tolyatti. In addition, 11,000 landing force troops arrived from Sochi with the Black Sea Fleet squadron.

" Today at two o'clock (on 26 February) the troops of the Western Military District, units stationed on its territory, and the Central Military District's 2nd Army, the Aerospace Defense Command, the Airborne Troops, Long-Range and Military-Transport aviation were suddenly raised on alert. Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin ordered a check of the troops' readiness for operations to resolve crisis situations posing a threat to the country's military security, as well as those of an anti-terrorist, medical and epidemiological, and technological character."

- C.

[Schone23666]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

Well, remember how Adolph Hitler viewed the Versailles Treaty: "A mere piece of paper". Treaties and such are just like laws....they are only as effective as the means, AND will to enforce them. Both are key.

The nuclear cat is already out of the bag at this point. Nukes are basically seen as the fast ticket to getting "respect" these days among most, I'd say the addition of a dozen more nuclear armed powers is inevitable...and then Pandora's box gets opened and it all goes downhill. See? There's still a chance we'll get to play T2K in real life yet. :newdevil:

[raketenjagdpanzer]

They're ordering troops in. To Ukraine. "To protect Russian citizens."

Jesus christ, it's September 1939 all over again.

Fuck Russia.

[stormlion1]

And I bet Putin will call them Peacekeepers rather than a Invasion Force when the UN starts to make noise. And if the Ruskies say it loud enough and often enough eventually the UN will believe it. Idiots.

[Jason Weiser]

They're ordering troops in. To Ukraine. "To protect Russian citizens."

Jesus christ, it's September 1939 all over again.

Fuck Russia.

Wait a sec, the operation has expanded beyond Crimea? Crap...this is going to get fugly. Fast.
This smacks of pre-meditation. It just does. Ivan's had a while to plan this.

Well, CFE is toast people...wanna guess where a lot of our surplus gear is going? E very Eastern European nation that can afford it. And maybe some that can't.

[Cdnwolf]

minutes ago

Former presidential adviser David Gergen says there are no indications the United States or European nations would take military action if Russia continues to move into Crimea.

While sanctions would be troublesome to Putin, they would be “small potatoes” compared to keeping control of Crimea, a region which is historically and militarily tied to Russia, he said.

Gergen also noted that Putin has “some cards to play” in negotiations with the United States. For instance, Obama has worked hard to reduce nuclear threats in the world, including in Iran, and has often enjoyed Putin's cooperation.

Losing that cooperation would hurt Obama’s legacy.

“Those are heavy, heavy, big cards to play,” Gergen said.

[stormlion1]

Like I said, Obama will blink. And to keep Putins aid in those regions he will and without US backing the EU will blink. Its all over but the shouting.

[Schone23666]

Like I said, Putin IS Russia. Or should I say, the U.S.S.R.?

With the cards Putin has to play, and it's pretty evident no one's going to do anything, I fail to see the "grave consequences" Obama was warning Putin about...just more hot air. Seriously, he and his staff need to know when to speak and when to shut up.

[Cdnwolf]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

[Targan]

Wait a sec, the operation has expanded beyond Crimea? Crap...this is going to get fugly. Fast.
This smacks of pre-meditation. It just does. Ivan's had a while to plan this.

I agree completely. Like I said earlier, Putin was a Colonel in the KGB. He'll have detailed contingency plans for hundreds of situations like that in the Ukraine covering dozens of nations that Russia has an "interest" in.

The situation in Crimea is going in pretty much exactly the direction I thought it would. When the Crimean parliament has its vote at the same time that the Ukraine holds its new presidential election, the Russians will get the political "legitimacy" they seek for their Crimean land grab.

I'm sure there'll be lots of criticism of political leaders in Europe and North America in the coming weeks and months for not taking stronger action against Russia but I think most of it will be for partisan reasons rather than constructive. By taking military action against Russia, any NATO country would be at extreme risk of things spiralling completely out of control. Does anyone here think the principal of protecting the Ukraine's sovereignty is worth kicking off WWIII? Actually I think principals like that ARE sometimes worth great sacrifices but the risk/reward ratio seems pretty extreme in this case.

[kato13]

I'm looking at all the angles here and IMO Russia simply annexing part of the Ukraine has too many pitfalls. I am now thinking that Putin is setting up for an agreement from the Ukraine to not join NATO for a period of time, (and to NEVER be the base for an ABM system) and to cede the Black Sea ports for 99 years (similar to agreements that handled Hong Kong and Guantanamo Bay).

Somehow I see Putin getting gains and still coming out of this not bruised at all. No sanctions, no international rebukes and still with influence on Ukrainian Politics (Which he would lose if a large number of ethnic Russians were annexed).

[stormlion1]

What I see is internal conflict in the region no matter how it turns out. IED's and terrorist attacks starting up with factions calling for a Russian pullout.

[pmulcahy11b]

See my comment in the "Dust off your books..." thread.

[Rainbow Six]

I agree completely. Like I said earlier, Putin was a Colonel in the KGB. He'll have detailed contingency plans for hundreds of situations like that in the Ukraine covering dozens of nations that Russia has an "interest" in.

The situation in Crimea is going in pretty much exactly the direction I thought it would. When the Crimean parliament has its vote at the same time that the Ukraine holds its new presidential election, the Russians will get the political "legitimacy" they seek for their Crimean land grab.

I'm sure there'll be lots of criticism of political leaders in Europe and North America in the coming weeks and months for not taking stronger action against Russia but I think most of it will be for partisan reasons rather than constructive. By taking military action against Russia, any NATO country would be at extreme risk of things spiralling completely out of control. Does anyone here think the principal of protecting the Ukraine's sovereignty is worth kicking off WWIII? Actually I think principals like that ARE sometimes worth great sacrifices but the risk/reward ratio seems pretty extreme in this case.

Targan, once again in this thread I agree completely with everything that you've said. Of course Putin and the Russian Government know what they are doing and are implementing plans that have been in place for some time. That is the very nature of contingency planning and frankly they wouldn't be a very good Government if they didn't make such plans. I'm sure other Governments around the World have plans for all manner of scenarios.

And has already been said in this thread, no Government, whether in the US or Europe is going to do anything particularly tangible because no one wants to spark World War 3. I'm sure those leaders will be criticised for "sitting on their hands" but as you say, such criticism is likely to be done purely to score political points. I wonder if the critics would prefer it if their leaders actually did start a World War? Suggestions that European countries should somehow be solely responsible for sending their troops to defend Ukraine aren't particularly helpful either.

[stormlion1]

The European Country's aren't even interested in doing something but complaining and wringing there hands. Its all they will ever do until the Russians move west. The Crimea is a out of the way location and shares no borders with Europe. Its a spot on the map. Now if Putin moved into Poland I could see a mobilization but not for the Crimea.

[Rainbow Six]

The European Country's aren't even interested in doing something but complaining and wringing there hands..

I don't see much different coming from anywhere else (speaking as a European).

[kato13]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

It looks like this was never submitted to the US Senate for ratification, so it literally in nothing more than guideline. I'm very surprised that the Ukraine relinquished their weapons stocks without that pretty important detail being completed.

[stormlion1]

Which is why the Russians will succeed in the Crimea. No one will do anything but wring there hands and cry fowl. But the Russians are closer to Europe then the US so I would assume they would be a bit more interested in dealing with the problem then talking about it, or asking for US help to deal with it.

[Rainbow Six]

My position on this has never changed - Putin knows where the red lines are and how far he can push things and still get away with it and if they want to annex the Crimea they will be successful, just like they were in Georgia six years ago. Because the only way anyone is going to stop them is by going to War with them and I don't think any NATO member anywhere (or anyone else for that matter) is willing to do that over the Ukraine (and I really don't understand those that seem to be advocating that any NATO member should be preparing for war, either individually or collectively or singling out specific regions as somehow being at fault or not doing enough). Not really much more I can add...

[Targan]

Ukraine's navy chief has switched allegiance to the pro-Russian authorities of the flashpoint peninsula of Crimea, a day after he was appointed to the post by interim leader Oleksandr Turchynov.

In a televised statement from inside the Crimean headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Denis Berezovsky swore to execute the orders of the pro-Russia commander-in-chief of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and its residents.
Treason. A certain someone should be standing in front of a firing squad.

Witnesses said Russian soldiers had blocked about 400 Ukrainian marines at a base in the eastern port city of Feodosiya and were calling on them to surrender and give up their arms.

Ukraine's defence ministry said 1000 armed fighters and 20 trucks were also blocking the entrance to a border guard unit in the southern Crimean town of Perevalne.
I really hope their officers and NCOs hold it together and refuse to surrender.

[stormlion1]

Those troops are waiting for relief to come in from the Ukraine. Its a race to see which shows up first, that relief or Russian Heavy Gear to come in and batter down the gates.

[RN7]

Which is why the Russians will succeed in the Crimea. No one will do anything but wring there hands and cry fowl. But the Russians are closer to Europe then the US so I would assume they would be a bit more interested in dealing with the problem then talking about it, or asking for US help to deal with it.

Does anybody really think that the Pentagon, NATO, the EU or the UN has a contingency plan for military intervention in the Ukraine against the Russians?

This is not Saddam Hussein or another tin pot dictator bullying it's smaller neighbour. This is Russia, a vast country armed to the teeth with all sorts of sophisticated weaponry including a huge strategic nuclear arsenal. And they also have a legitimate grievance about protecting their national interests in the Ukraine, mainly as a lot of Russians live their and the Crimea has traditionally been part of Russia.

What do you think that Europe could do to make a country with an armed forces the size of Russia to withdraw from the Crimea? The answer is absolutely nothing outside of economic sanctions, and the Russians could also retaliate by cutting off the gas supply to Europe. Even America can do nothing because Russia hold all the geographical and logistical advantages. No US general or military advisor would advocate taking on the Russians anywhere yet alone in their own back yard. If you launch a Tomahawk cruise missile on Russian territory you could get an ICBM launched back at you.

[kalos72]

This is nothing but a bully taking what he wants...and all of us are too scared to do anything about it.

All this because, "People of Russian decent live there"? Russia gave Crimea away in 1954...

I would sanction the shit out of this guy...sell arms to the Ukraine....loan them 150B...whatever it took.

We let them take parts of Georgia...if we are this "World Makers" like our politicians like to dream of at night or current policy of "non action" is sad...

This pisses me off.... :(

[RN7]

This is nothing but a bully taking what he wants...and all of us are too scared to do anything about it.

All this because, "People of Russian decent live there"? Russia gave Crimea away in 1954...

I would sanction the shit out of this guy...sell arms to the Ukraine....loan them 150B...whatever it took.

We let them take parts of Georgia...if we are this "World Makers" like our politicians like to dream of at night or current policy of "non action" is sad...

This pisses me off.... :(


Unfortunately there is nothing that anyone can do to make Russia withdraw from the Crimea, or the Eastern Ukraine if it sends its forces into it other than engaging Putin in sensitive diplomacy.

The Russians don't think the same way about democracy and the end of the Cold War that westerners do. They feel humiliated by losing the Cold War and watching their former allies join NATO. The Ukraine is far to close to home and to their own culture and history for Russians to let go off, and is the final line in the sand for them. They wont back down.

If you sanction the Russians they will cut off the gas supply to Europe, and sell nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea. If you politically isolate a country like Russia it will start breaking every arms treaty it has signed since the end of the Cold War. It will also probably start to revert to its old ways and may start taking back all of the old Soviet Union and will cosy up with China.

[kalos72]

Where is RR when you need him... :(

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I hope this turns into another humiliation for Russia. It won't; but I hope it does.

[stormlion1]

What I wonder is what is the Russian Media telling its people. I'm curious to see what it says from there POV.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

What I wonder is what is the Russian Media telling its people. I'm curious to see what it says from there POV.

I'm sure their nationalism is running at an all-time high.

They "beat" the west in the Olympics (38 medals to our what, 26? or something like that?), showed the world what a grand spectacle they could put on there (or at least that's what they told their people), and after the ass-kicking they got in Dagestan and Chechnya, the home team winning one on the road has to have them just full of themselves...

[kalos72]

There are rumors now about the US trying to remove Russia from the G8 or at very least the US not attending until they are removed.

[Rainbow Six]

What I wonder is what is the Russian Media telling its people. I'm curious to see what it says from there POV.

Here you go.

http://english.pravda.ru/

(I don't think you'll like it much as it is heavily biased to the Russian side, although the Greatest Cover Girls Of All Time feature isn't bad)

As a counter to that you can also see what the Ukrainians are saying if you want

http://en.interfax.com.ua/

I'm sure you'll be able to get many more through google, many of which will have their own biases...I think I'll stick with the BBC and a couple of the decent British newspapers...I'd recommend the Times but I think their online platform is subscription only now.

[adimar]

The European Country's aren't even interested in doing something but complaining and wringing there handsBasically its all they can do.
Just remember what a hard time they had suppressing Muammar Gadaffi's third rate army.
Now you want them to stare into the jaws of the Russian bear?
Also the bear wouldn't even have to actually hit them the cause massive casualties.
A huge percentage of Europe depends on Russian gas for heating, any embargo will result in massive civilian casualties in the next winter.

And as for the united states...a nation that under the current president, stabbed just about all of its allies in the back.
Nothing more than an emasculated giant.

Adi

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Basically its all they can do.
Just remember what a hard time they had suppressing Muammar Gadaffi's third rate army.
Now you want them to stare into the jaws of the Russian bear?
Also the bear wouldn't even have to actually hit them the cause massive casualties.
A huge percentage of Europe depends on Russian gas for heating, any embargo will result in massive civilian casualties in the next winter.

And as for the united states...a nation that under the current president, stabbed just about all of its allies in the back.
Nothing more than an emasculated giant.

Adi

Sadly true.

[kalos72]

Thing that kills me here...

Is that we have done this for years and years...now that we really need to step in and help, we can't.

We have blown our political capital on crap like Iraq/Afghanistan and we cant do anything when a country is being invaded by a bully.

[Targan]

This:
Does anybody really think that the Pentagon, NATO, the EU or the UN has a contingency plan for military intervention in the Ukraine against the Russians?

This is not Saddam Hussein or another tin pot dictator bullying it's smaller neighbour. This is Russia, a vast country armed to the teeth with all sorts of sophisticated weaponry including a huge strategic nuclear arsenal. And they also have a legitimate grievance about protecting their national interests in the Ukraine, mainly as a lot of Russians live their and the Crimea has traditionally been part of Russia.

What do you think that Europe could do to make a country with an armed forces the size of Russia to withdraw from the Crimea? The answer is absolutely nothing outside of economic sanctions, and the Russians could also retaliate by cutting off the gas supply to Europe. Even America can do nothing because Russia hold all the geographical and logistical advantages. No US general or military advisor would advocate taking on the Russians anywhere yet alone in their own back yard. If you launch a Tomahawk cruise missile on Russian territory you could get an ICBM launched back at you.
and this:
Unfortunately there is nothing that anyone can do to make Russia withdraw from the Crimea, or the Eastern Ukraine if it sends its forces into it other than engaging Putin in sensitive diplomacy.

The Russians don't think the same way about democracy and the end of the Cold War that westerners do. They feel humiliated by losing the Cold War and watching their former allies join NATO. The Ukraine is far to close to home and to their own culture and history for Russians to let go off, and is the final line in the sand for them. They wont back down.

If you sanction the Russians they will cut off the gas supply to Europe, and sell nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea. If you politically isolate a country like Russia it will start breaking every arms treaty it has signed since the end of the Cold War. It will also probably start to revert to its old ways and may start taking back all of the old Soviet Union and will cosy up with China.
I couldn't have written that better myself. And you know what? I don't like what the Russians are doing in the Ukraine any more than anyone else here, but if the shoe was on the other foot, I think the US would do much the same as the Russians are doing. The US tends to be better at putting a nice spin on things and probably wouldn't be quite as blunt, but from the Russian point of view I'm sure they feel some justification in their actions (as well as gaining the benefits of a naked land-grab).

[stormlion1]

Even if the US had the power and political backing there is little the US could really do in the Crimea. Its the Ruskies backyard, the most we could do would be to send in supplies in 3rd party aircraft and land them in non-Russian Controlled airfields. The West just doesn't have any real options.

[Olefin]

Actually they have a big one - embargo the Russians - it means the US supporting the needs of the Europeans for natural gas and I am not sure if we have enough ships to be able to do it - but if they can get enough of the European Union states and other countries to not buy their gas and oil then Putin is in major trouble

[kato13]

Actually they have a big one - embargo the Russians - it means the US supporting the needs of the Europeans for natural gas and I am not sure if we have enough ships to be able to do it - but if they can get enough of the European Union states and other countries to not buy their gas and oil then Putin is in major trouble

The Polish natural gas industry and infrastructure could also benefit from US technology, equipment, and know how. Fracking could be the key to breaking the energy grip the Russians have over Western Europe. I know the UK is considering increased fracking as well.

Fracking has been so politicized on both sides of the Atlantic. Even though IMO this is logical and in times of potential conflicts compromises should be made, I still see this being a very tough sell.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Well, remember how Adolph Hitler viewed the Versailles Treaty: "A mere piece of paper". Treaties and such are just like laws....they are only as effective as the means, AND will to enforce them. Both are key.

The nuclear cat is already out of the bag at this point. Nukes are basically seen as the fast ticket to getting "respect" these days among most, I'd say the addition of a dozen more nuclear armed powers is inevitable...and then Pandora's box gets opened and it all goes downhill. See? There's still a chance we'll get to play T2K in real life yet. :newdevil:

I sometimes wonder if it was wise for the Ukraine to give up their nukes, they were like the 3rd or 4th largest nuke power after the breakup of the USSR, then again, it could be a bigger mess, Russia could lose Moscow for Kiev or Leningrad/St. Petersburg for Kherson. Sad to say, the world cannot do much at this point except voice their condemnations and sanctions. The U.S. should not get involved, we have lots of problems here although we need to keep an eye on it. Still, it hurts me to see the Ukraine get bullied, f I could magically snap my fingers and give them 1000 M48/M60 tanks for example, I would.

Chuck

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Wait a sec, the operation has expanded beyond Crimea? Crap...this is going to get fugly. Fast.
This smacks of pre-meditation. It just does. Ivan's had a while to plan this.

Well, CFE is toast people...wanna guess where a lot of our surplus gear is going? E very Eastern European nation that can afford it. And maybe some that can't.

Well, maybe they WILL get M48/M60 tanks after all. ;)

Chuck

[Nowhere Man 1966]

What I wonder is what is the Russian Media telling its people. I'm curious to see what it says from there POV.

I think I'll spend some more time on my shortwave radio. I can pick up Romania in the late afternoons as well.

Chuck

[pmulcahy11b]

Actually they have a big one - embargo the Russians - it means the US supporting the needs of the Europeans for natural gas and I am not sure if we have enough ships to be able to do it - but if they can get enough of the European Union states and other countries to not buy their gas and oil then Putin is in major trouble

We can't embargo them -- they have oil and a lot of minerals and metals that we can't do without.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

We can't embargo them -- they have oil and a lot of minerals and metals that we can't do without.

I think the U.S. can do well if we free some restriction here at home but Europe would be more screwed, except maybe the UK and Scandinavia from North Sea oil.

Chuck

[stormlion1]

An embargo against the Russians doesn't work. But a tightening of trade restrictions and increased Tariff's does.

[adimar]

I sometimes wonder if it was wise for the Ukraine to give up their nukesOf course not. They traded the security of their country for a worthless piece of paper.
then again, it could be a bigger messPlease excuse me, but I beg to differ. If the Ukraine hadn't traded their nukes than this whole mess would probably not have happened.

Which is the real lesson to be learned from this story.
You can bet your last cent that just about every small country, is looking at the situation in the Ukraine coupled with the feeble reaction towards Iran. And coming to the only reasonable conclusion possible.
We need to get some nukes.

Adi

[RN7]

The Polish natural gas industry and infrastructure could also benefit from US technology, equipment, and know how. Fracking could be the key to breaking the energy grip the Russians have over Western Europe. I know the UK is considering increased fracking as well.

Fracking has been so politicized on both sides of the Atlantic. Even though IMO this is logical and in times of potential conflicts compromises should be made, I still see this being a very tough sell.

The Russians and OPEC are already starting to get worried about the potential of American oil and gas oil shale that is being tapped through fracking. America's oil and gas shale reserves are so big they could potentially eliminate the monopoly that Russia and OPEC states have over the worlds energy supply.

Shale gas and oil reserves are also found in very large quantities in other countries notably Russia, China and Argentina among others. But America has a very significant advantage over the rest of the world in exploiting shale oil and gas for five main reasons; geology, technology, incentive, infrastructure and water. Fracking is still in its infancy but through current production from 14 major shale fields in the United States; notably Bakken in North Dakota and the Barnett and Eagle Ford in Texas; America has already overtaken Russia as the biggest producer of natural gas in the world and will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest producer of oil. By the 2030's America is projected to be entirely energy self sufficient. These figures are only based on what's being produced from active shale fields and conventional oil fields in the United States, but American industry is already retooling around petrochemicals because of it. But the biggest oil shale fields in America and the world hasn't even been touched yet, as they lie on federal lands beneath US western states. The Piceance Basin, the Uintah Basin and the Green River Formation of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are believed to hold between 1.5 to 3 trillion barrels of recoverable shale oil, which on the lower figure is five times the conventional oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Good news for us, and hard luck OPEC and Russia.

[kato13]

Shale gas and oil reserves are also found in very large quantities in other countries notably Russia, China and Argentina among others. But America has a very significant advantage over the rest of the world in exploiting shale oil and gas for five main reasons; geology, technology, incentive, infrastructure and water. Fracking is still in its infancy but through current production from 14 major shale fields in the United States; notably Bakken in North Dakota and the Barnett and Eagle Ford in Texas; America has already overtaken Russia as the biggest producer of natural gas in the world and will soon overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest producer of oil. By the 2030's America is projected to be entirely energy self sufficient. These figures are only based on what's being produced from active shale fields and conventional oil fields in the United States, but American industry is already retooling around petrochemicals because of it. But the biggest oil shale fields in America and the world hasn't even been touched yet, as they lie on federal lands beneath US western states. The Piceance Basin, the Uintah Basin and the Green River Formation of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are believed to hold between 1.5 to 3 trillion barrels of recoverable shale oil, which on the lower figure is five times the conventional oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Good news for us, and hard luck OPEC and Russia.

Yeah th US is swimming in Natural Gas and will be for a LONG time. The biggest problem is transport. Ships are not as economically feasible for transporting gas as they are with oil. A trans Atlantic pipeline has been mentioned, but it has gotten about as much serious attention as a space elevator.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind that the US doesnt buy oil from the Russians - we buy some minerals but not much really - for an embargo to work the US has to get the EU to sign onto it and the former Eastern Bloc countries - and that means being ready to step up to the bar with natural gas -

Putin right now is only staying in power because of the petrodollars and gas dollars - cut into that and he is in big trouble very fast

[RN7]

Yeah th US is swimming in Natural Gas and will be for a LONG time. The biggest problem is transport. Ships are not as economically feasible for transporting gas as they are with oil. A trans Atlantic pipeline has been mentioned, but it has gotten about as much serious attention as a space elevator.

Shale gas is only the first phase of this. US East Coast LNG refineries that were importing large volumes of natural gas from OPEC countries as little as five years ago have stopped importing due to the volumes of shale gas now being produced in America, and are converting to export terminals. Gas hungry Europe is lining up to import American gas and the Russians are worried, and there is talk about exporting it to even more gas hungry Asia as well. Oil will be the next phase and this will kill OPEC and could lead to the US pulling its forces out of the Middle East who's importance will become redundant to America for energy supplies.

[kato13]

How is Europe set up for offloading? It looks like 3-4 ships a day could offset the volume of Russian gas, but I am expecting it would require a total revamping of the distribution network. West to East rather than the other way around.

[RN7]

How is Europe set up for offloading? It looks like 3-4 ships a day could offset the volume of Russian gas, but I am expecting it would require a total revamping of the distribution network. West to East rather than the other way around.

A lot of the OPEC gas that used to be shipped to America has been diverted to the European market so they already have an alternative source if things turn tasty. Europe is mainly a gas importer so they already have the infrastructure in place.

[stormlion1]

Shipping wise the US doesn't have enough ships to send anything to Europe large scale. The US and the EU would have to depend on short-term foreign flag carriers and there are not many set up for that kind of transport. That being said, shipyards across the planet would quickly receive orders for ships to carry product across the Atlantic, good for the ship building industry. The only other real option would be to build that long made fun of pipeline across the Atlantic. Of course they could do it from Newfoundland to Greenland down to Iceland and across to Europe from there. Only sections would be underwater and the rest on land. Only problem would be the Environmentalist screaming bloody murder and the potential for some foreign power in attempting to cut that pipeline at some point.

[RN7]

Shipping wise the US doesn't have enough ships to send anything to Europe large scale. The US and the EU would have to depend on short-term foreign flag carriers and there are not many set up for that kind of transport. That being said, shipyards across the planet would quickly receive orders for ships to carry product across the Atlantic, good for the ship building industry. The only other real option would be to build that long made fun of pipeline across the Atlantic. Of course they could do it from Newfoundland to Greenland down to Iceland and across to Europe from there. Only sections would be underwater and the rest on land. Only problem would be the Environmentalist screaming bloody murder and the potential for some foreign power in attempting to cut that pipeline at some point.

I couldn't see any US president signing off on a Trans-Atlantic oil or gas pipeline stretching from Newfoundland across to Greenland and Iceland and then terminating in England or France. It is probably feasible to build one but imagine what would happen if the there was a big oil leak under the Atlantic Ocean such as in the Grand Banks and it started killing off all the fish!

Among European countries only Denmark and the Netherlands are self sufficient in gas, and of the major European economies only Britain has large gas resources and that only meets half of its needs. I think there are about 400 LNG carriers afloat around the world at the moment. I don't know who owns them but I suspect all of the American and British supermajor oil companies have a few as well as the traditional main shipping countries in Europe and Asia.

[stormlion1]

That's the interesting part. It wouldn't be a US President who had to sign off on a transatlantic pipeline. Notice I said it started from Canada? Plus it would have the advantage of going the shortest route. Environmental problems could also be managed by compartmentalizing the entire thing. A leak in one section can be quickly sealed by shutting down individual compartments.
And from what I can gleam from the depths of the Internet there are 370 LNG Carriers (50 owned by Shell) worldwide of various sizes that could be put to use transporting from the New World to the Old..

The interesting thing would be would someone attempt to cut this line (both pipeline or shipping) during peacetime to drive Europe back into Russia's economic embrace.

[Targan]

Australia exports natural gas to markets in Asia by ship. At the moment most of our gas comes from offshore fields in waters off the NW of my state. Production has really ramped up in the past couple of years and will continue to grow.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

Of course not. They traded the security of their country for a worthless piece of paper.
Please excuse me, but I beg to differ. If the Ukraine hadn't traded their nukes than this whole mess would probably not have happened.

Which is the real lesson to be learned from this story.
You can bet your last cent that just about every small country, is looking at the situation in the Ukraine coupled with the feeble reaction towards Iran. And coming to the only reasonable conclusion possible.
We need to get some nukes.

Adi

I did some thinking about that today and I did come to the conclusion that you are correct. It's the old argument, would the Russians want to lose Moscow for Kiev? Leningrad for Kherson? I think this teaches one thing, perhaps you can count on some friends but when you cannot count on them or they can't help you, you got to take care of yourself.

Come to think of it, if the prevailing winds go my way, if I was the Ukraine and Russia does not stop, I'd dynamite, or otherwise blow, the containment system and Chernobyl and let the mayhem ensue.

Chuck

[Targan]

I have mixed opinions on the issue of small countries and nuclear weapons. My own country has an estimated 30% of the world's known uranium reserves and we are a technologically advanced nation so clearly we are well capable of becoming a nuclear-armed state.

As early as 1956 the Australian government investigated obtaining tactical nuclear weapons from the UK. We also poured a lot of money and resources into the Blue Streak missile program (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Streak_missile) with the obvious intention of arming them with nuclear warheads.

Of course, that never came to pass. Apparently the British government back then was warm to the idea of assisting Australia in that area but the US definitely was not. Kind of sad really, especially since we let the Brits detonate a bunch of nukes out in the South Australian desert and on the Monte Bello Islands.

Then in 1970 we signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and ratified it in 1973, and that was that. Lucky for us we have powerful friends :cool:

[adimar]

It's the old argument, would the Russians want to lose Moscow for Kiev? Leningrad for Kherson? Actually If I were in the Ukrainian drive seat I wouldn't use the nuke on Russian soil. That would be a prelude to opening the gates of hell. I would use it on my own soil where the invading Russian troops are concentrated (and coincidentally quite a lot of my undesirable ethnic Russian civilians)...
(note that this only applies to the first nuke, after that....)


I think this teaches one thing, perhaps you can count on some friends but when you cannot count on them or they can't help you, you got to take care of yourself.Yep. Any treaty is only a piece of paper.
That's why the contrast between Obama's betrayal of Mubarak (Egypt) and Putin's support of Assad (Syria) resonates so loudly.

Adi

[Olefin]

got to love Putin's timing on the ICBM test as well - sure sure it had nothing to do with the Ukraine

just how stupid does he think we are?

and the longer this goes on the madder the Ukranians are getting - if a Russian does something stupid and actually shoots a Ukranian soldier its going to be a bloodbath quickly

[kalos72]

What else is funny (not really but) is how Putin can say "we have no Russian troops on the ground" but then turn around and say "We have the right to defend our Russia comrades in Crimea from attacks" in the same breath.

I say send a US transport to Crimea and see what the Russian do...if they arent Russian Fed troops we can kill them right?

Not really but it would be very telling and force Putins hand...

[stormlion1]

Actually an option is to call Putins bluff of there being no Russian troops on the ground in the Crimea by arming the populace and letting them take pot shots at the unmarked troops. Kill a few and see if Putin changes his story.

[Targan]

Actually an option is to call Putins bluff of there being no Russian troops on the ground in the Crimea by arming the populace and letting them take pot shots at the unmarked troops. Kill a few and see if Putin changes his story.

This is similar to a line of thinking I had last night while watching news footage of Russian troops trying to intimidate a group of unarmed Ukrainian Airforce personnel. The Ukrainians returned to barracks after the Russian troops allowed a bunch of balaclava-wearing, rag-tag uniformed pro-Russian militiamen to turn up. The Ukreainians (wisely) recognised it as a deliberate provocatiuon and withdrew.

Under international law an occupying force is legally obliged to keep law and order. That certainly doesn't mean that it's ok to let a bunch of private citizens form their own armed unregulated militia groups and start pushing their weight around (unless that's an ok thing to do under Ukrainian domestic law). If I were the Ukrainians I'd be arguing that the occupying forces are totally in breach of their obligations to keep the populace safe. Then again, that's probably the least of their problems in terms of the blatant illegality of what the Russians are doing.

I have two very separate minds watching all of this. My logical, knowledgeable mind considers the history of the area and the unfolding machinations and makes predictions on the outcomes. My passionate, emotive mind is screaming on the inside of my skull that the Russians deserve to have their arses handed to them.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Hmm, unidentified but obviously pro-Russian militias allowed to operate in Crimea without interference from Russian troops... sounds just like the Russian invasion of Georgia all over again (although the Georgians were not entirely without blame in the start of that war).

[stormlion1]

All is not well in Russian media land.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/russia-today-anchor-quits-live-air-russian-invasion-ukraine-article-1.1712043

[stormlion1]

Interesting little bit of news. The Russians have sunk three ships to block the Ukrainian Naval base inside Lake Donuzlav to keep ships there bottled up. Two smaller ships and a old Kara Class Cruiser. Then sent a Russian Admiral to the Ukrainian Naval Bases front gate to try to convince them to switch sides.

[Adm.Lee]

Interesting little bit of news. The Russians ... Then sent a Russian Admiral to the Ukrainian Naval Bases front gate to try to convince them to switch sides.

Apparently, there are several places where the Ukrainian forces are staying in barracks, not surrendering their weapons, not switching sides when invited. They are staying put and not rising to any provocations. Their leaders have to know that any violence on their part will be: a) met with ready and overwhelming force, and b) just the excuse of, "extremist hooligan terrorist violence by an illegal rebel force" that the Russians are looking for. One loose shot, and they get the casus belli to invade and overrun the whole country, at least the eastern, pro-Russian third as well as Crimea.

This has been going on over a week, and no private has stepped out of line, no hothead lieutenant has pulled a pistol, nothing. The discipline is amazing.

I don't know if I'm being cynical or starry-eyed, but I wanna put those guys up for the Nobel Peace Prize.