Airliner Shot Down over Ukraine

[Cdnwolf]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Any thoughts?

[kato13]

Been following it since the first hour of the story.

98+% sure it was the separatists. The tweet claiming they had shot down the AN-26 (which they later removed) and the intercepted radio/cell communication where the person on the ground pretty much said "It was 100% a civie" and "There are seats everywhere" all hit the web too quickly to be non planned fakes.

The other 2-% being that it was a planned action to shame the separatists.

The fact that the black boxes were collected and sent to Moscow also does not bode well for the truth coming out of that data source.

This is not what Putin wanted, and when he is disappointed bad things can happen.

[schnickelfritz]

Supposedly shot down at normal cruising altitude of 33,000ft. That narrows it down to the latest incarnation of the SA-8, or to the SA-10/11/12. The claim is a SA-11 fired by pro-Russia separatists.

If true, my guess is that they wanted to shoot down something after shooting down an Ukrainian An-26 over the weekend. How they did not see the IFF transponder code is a mystery. I'll give them the credit that this was a horrible accident...targeting the wrong plane because it was through to be, what, an IL-76?

I'd say the crew needs to hand themselves over to authorities and that the launcher(s) need to be scoured from the Earth, but I'm not about to believe either will happen.

I find it unlikely that a Ukrainian Gov't crew would do this....it's not like the seperatists would have attack aircraft of any kind, nor would they fly at that altitude, deaf and dumb. It makes no sense for any potential target (say Russian aircraft) wouldn't be flying at anything but NOE.

My $.05

Dave

[schnickelfritz]

Black boxes sent to Moscow, for what, "safekeeping?" I'm glad the old USSR era playbook wasn't lost, good God.

I mean, Holy crap, the souls of the ones slain and those who are left to grieve those lost deserve so much better I am at a loss for words.

-Dave

[Targan]

The Russian government and military have blood on their hands, no doubt about it. Maybe, just maybe, the pro-Russian rebels managed to take a self propelled SAM launcher from the Ukrainian armed forces. I guess it's possible they might have been able to comb their ranks for people with all the necessary skills and training to maintain and operate all those complex systems. But I think it most likely that the Russians handed the rebels several launcher vehicles and a bunch of missiles, spares and probably even trained personnel a couple of months ago, and now they're thinking "whoops".

It's a shocking, entirely preventable tragedy but in terms of the outcome of the insurgency in Ukraine, it doesn't matter anyway. The Russians are just waiting for Ukraine to be conflict-ravaged failed state and then they can roll in as "peacekeepers" and take those parts of Ukraine that they want. And in terms of military intervention, nobody will do a damned thing, and we all know why.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

There's no atrocity Putin won't sign off on.

[Targan]

This is what you get when you put a former KGB colonel in charge of a country like Russia. Putin is a fair dinkum nasty piece of work. A pox on his house and his junk.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

The Sovs - excuse me russians moved in and stole the black boxes from the site already. "To Moscow, for evaluation".

Jesus christ fuck those people.

[Olefin]

Frankly if our President has any balls he should tell the Russians that one more event like this of any sort and the US will consider the Ukranian "separatists" to be terrorists and deal with them accordingly with all the force that the US can muster - or that they will begin to escort all civilian airliners in the area and engage and destroy any threats that are detected

[mikeo80]

Frankly if our President has any balls he should tell the Russians that one more event like this of any sort and the US will consider the Ukranian "separatists" to be terrorists and deal with them accordingly with all the force that the US can muster - or that they will begin to escort all civilian airliners in the area and engage and destroy any threats that are detected

Ummm.... I understand your anger and frustration. As many have said before, there is very little the USA can (or will) do about this. NATO is a toothless old dog. I am wondering how long it will before people start shooting down airliners EVERYWHERE!!! There is almost NO way to stop a SAM from downing an airliner. Well, there is, but it would cost BILLIONS. Not going to happen. THat would interrupt profits.

My $0.02

Mike

[RN7]

Who's to blame?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysia-Airlines-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html

Most of the casualties are Western Europeans or people who hold European citizenship. Putin is in big trouble now, Europe will fully support American sanctions against Russia which are already strangling the Russian economy. The Russian separatists who fired the missile are going to disappear very quickly.

[Olefin]

Actually there is a lot we can do about this - escort the airliners using aircraft configured as Wild Weasels - if they detect the systems locking on they can launch and take them out. But it would require the US or Europeans agreeing to escort them - much like the US escorted tankers during the Iran Iraq War.

But it takes political will that Obama doesnt have and backbone that the Europeans dont have.

[stormlion1]

Just why in the hell are civilian aircraft flying over what is essentially a warzone? I'm not surprised that this has happened, I'm surprised it hadn't happened sooner!

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Putin is in big trouble now,

he is in nothing now; our pResident is weak and ineffective, and Putin knows it. Russia waited for Bush to be very nearly out of office before starting shit in Georgia, they (correctly) assumed he wouldn't want to rock the boat prior to exiting office. Forty seconds after making an announcement about this yesterday, Obama was cracking jokes with the press about unrelated matters. All he cares about is pressing the flesh to try and stop the savage beating his party will take in the midterms, and the Russians know that.

Shit they could fly a TU-95 over NYC with the bomb bay doors open and a city-killer hanging underneath and we wouldn't do anything

[stormlion1]

Obama and his party know there in trouble at the moment and signs show there going to be reduced to a minority in the Senate and lose seats in Congress. And that is 100 times more important to them than a plane being shot down over the Ukraine. I have to ask though, don't Civilian Airliners have anything to detect a missile lock? A warning light? Anything? I know the occurrence is rare but it has happened before.

[rcaf_777]

before the moderator steps in let get off the poltics and back on track

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I have to ask though, don't Civilian Airliners have anything to detect a missile lock? A warning light? Anything? I know the occurrence is rare but it has happened before.

And do what with that information? Radio "Oh god we're about to be hit by a missile"? Evasion is out of the question. Forcing a missile to overshoot requires putting huge amounts of energy into a turn, dive, pitch up etc. Energy commercial jets just do not have.

[Olefin]

You can equip an aircraft with detectors and countermeasures - but it costs money to do so and it means you are hauling them instead of passengers - from what I remember El Al equipped their planes with things like chaff and flare dispensers and missile detectors - but not sure if anyone else has.

And there are things you can do - for one turn away from the missile and hope to outrun it or get out of its range - but you have to be lucky and have someone fire at you at the outside edge of the range envelope to get away with that

Basically the best protection you can give an aircraft like that is being able to overwhelmingly hit back against anyone who would shoot at them - and while we have the capability we dont have the political guts to do so.

For instance I highly doubt they would be taking potshots at airliners if the US launched a bunch of airstrikes against every ammo dump they had on the Ukranian side of the border and took out every tank and APC they had and then said the next time it will be worse.

Sounds like we may be looking at a 1995 event here from the game if Putin doesnt pull his head out of his butt and realize what he has put in motion while there is still time to stop it.

[Olefin]

And do what with that information? Radio "Oh god we're about to be hit by a missile"? Evasion is out of the question. Forcing a missile to overshoot requires putting huge amounts of energy into a turn, dive, pitch up etc. Energy commercial jets just do not have.

It all depends on the pilot and on how much warning he has and what the missile used is - its one thing to get out of the range of a short range missile its another to avoid what they used.

[Raellus]

Let's not dive into politics here. Really, what can the U.S. do, short of provoking a war with Russia, that it isn't already doing (a second batch of sanctions went into effect just a couple of days ago)?

It's easy for us guys over-draft-age guys safe behind our computer screens to call for stronger measures but let's be a little more sober minded here. Any threat of or application of Western military force in Ukraine will be seen by Putin as an act of war and the consequences of such could be very dire indeed. Russian military aircraft are already flying into the airspace of NATO's Baltic members on an almost daily basis and the U.S. is scrambling intercepts on average of once per day. The situation is already ripe for an "incident". The last thing anyone needs is further provocations.

For example, NATO Wild Weasels escorting commercial airliners over a non-member nation just a few kilometers from the border with a fairly bellicose Russia? Is Russia going to let that happen? Would the U.S. allow Russian combat aircraft to fly right up to the U.S.-Mexico border? It's a recipe for disaster. Is a lack of backbone in the White House really the problem? Does the U.S. need another war? Do our NATO allies? Come on. I don't think not wanting to start a war with Russia is cowardly. It's common sense. Partisan politics seems to get people to react emotionally instead of rationally.

Commercial Airliners don't have the performance specs to outrun or outmaneuver a supersonic SAM. According to reports, it took the SAM less than 30 seconds from launch to intercept, and that with the airliner at a cruising altitude between 33k-36k feet. A 777 isn't built to outrun, outturn, out climb, or out dive a guided missile.

Bottom line is that commercial airliners should not be flying over an active conflict zone, especially one where other high-flying aircraft have been shot down. Malaysia Airlines made a disastrous call allowing its aircraft to transit that area. Their excuse that it hadn't been officially declared off-limits is patently ridiculous. Considering the events of the past year, I hope MA gets sued out of existence.

Something should be done to "punish" Russia for supplying the Ukrainian separatists with military hardware. More diplomatic and economic pressure should be brought to bear on Russia to reign in the separatists. Hopefully, this latest incident will go farther in turning global public opinion against Russia's support for the separatists in East Ukraine.

[RN7]

he is in nothing now; our pResident is weak and ineffective, and Putin knows it. Russia waited for Bush to be very nearly out of office before starting shit in Georgia, they (correctly) assumed he wouldn't want to rock the boat prior to exiting office. Forty seconds after making an announcement about this yesterday, Obama was cracking jokes with the press about unrelated matters. All he cares about is pressing the flesh to try and stop the savage beating his party will take in the midterms, and the Russians know that.

Shit they could fly a TU-95 over NYC with the bomb bay doors open and a city-killer hanging underneath and we wouldn't do anything

As discussed at length before on previous threads you cant go around using military force against a nuclear armed and powerful country like Russia. But America is using economic warfare against Russia and its absolutely strangling the Russian economy and there are articles about it all over the internet. If Europe also fully endorses it then Russia has no source of credit outside of its owns stocks of foreign reserves. They wont last long and Putin will have to ask the Arabs or China for money. With the Israelis hammering the crap out of Hamas and the PLO and all the trouble in Iraq and Syria the Arabs want America on their side, so that leaves China. China has huge amounts of credit but much of it is in US treasury holdings. China would have to sell them to bail out Russia and that's good news for who?

[RN7]

Let's not dive into politics here. Really, what can the U.S. do, short of provoking a war with Russia, that it isn't already doing (a second batch of sanctions went into effect just a couple of days ago)?

It's easy for us guys over-draft-age guys safe behind our computer screens to call for stronger measures but let's be a little more sober minded here. Any threat of or application of Western military force in Ukraine will be seen by Putin as an act of war and the consequences of such could be very dire indeed. Russian military aircraft are already flying into the airspace of NATO's Baltic members on an almost daily basis and the U.S. is scrambling intercepts on average of once per day. The situation is already ripe for an "incident". The last thing anyone needs is further provocations.

For example, NATO Wild Weasels escorting commercial airliners over a non-member nation just a few kilometers from the border with a fairly bellicose Russia? Is Russia going to let that happen? Would the U.S. allow Russian combat aircraft to fly right up to the U.S.-Mexico border? It's a recipe for disaster. Is a lack of backbone in the White House really the problem? Does the U.S. need another war? Do our NATO allies? Come on. I don't think not wanting to start a war with Russia is cowardly. It's common sense. Partisan politics seems to get people to react emotionally instead of rationally.

Commercial Airliners don't have the performance specs to outrun or outmaneuver a supersonic SAM. According to reports, it took the SAM less than 30 seconds from launch to intercept, and that with the airliner at a cruising altitude between 33k-36k feet. A 777 isn't built to outrun, outturn, out climb, or out dive a guided missile.

Bottom line is that commercial airliners should not be flying over an active conflict zone, especially one where other high-flying aircraft have been shot down. Malaysia Airlines made a disastrous call allowing its aircraft to transit that area. Their excuse that it hadn't been officially declared off-limits is patently ridiculous. Considering the events of the past year, I hope MA gets sued out of existence.

Something should be done to "punish" Russia for supplying the Ukrainian separatists with military hardware. More diplomatic and economic pressure should be brought to bear on Russia to reign in the separatists. Hopefully, this latest incident will go farther in turning global public opinion against Russia's support for the separatists in East Ukraine.


Totally agree and America's doing the right thing by economically strangling Russia into conforming to international laws.

[Rainbow Six]

Let's not dive into politics here. Really, what can the U.S. do, short of provoking a war with Russia, that it isn't already doing (a second batch of sanctions went into effect just a couple of days ago)?

It's easy for us guys over-draft-age guys safe behind our computer screens to call for stronger measures but let's be a little more sober minded here. Any threat of or application of Western military force in Ukraine will be seen by Putin as an act of war and the consequences of such could be very dire indeed. Russian military aircraft are already flying into the airspace of NATO's Baltic members on an almost daily basis and the U.S. is scrambling intercepts on average of once per day. The situation is already ripe for an "incident". The last thing anyone needs is further provocations.

For example, NATO Wild Weasels escorting commercial airliners over a non-member nation just a few kilometers from the border with a fairly bellicose Russia? Is Russia going to let that happen? Would the U.S. allow Russian combat aircraft to fly right up to the U.S.-Mexico border? It's a recipe for disaster. Is a lack of backbone in the White House really the problem? Does the U.S. need another war? Do our NATO allies? Come on. I don't think not wanting to start a war with Russia is cowardly. It's common sense. Partisan politics seems to get people to react emotionally instead of rationally.

Commercial Airliners don't have the performance specs to outrun or outmaneuver a supersonic SAM. According to reports, it took the SAM less than 30 seconds from launch to intercept, and that with the airliner at a cruising altitude between 33k-36k feet. A 777 isn't built to outrun, outturn, out climb, or out dive a guided missile.

Bottom line is that commercial airliners should not be flying over an active conflict zone, especially one where other high-flying aircraft have been shot down. Malaysia Airlines made a disastrous call allowing its aircraft to transit that area. Their excuse that it hadn't been officially declared off-limits is patently ridiculous. Considering the events of the past year, I hope MA gets sued out of existence.

Something should be done to "punish" Russia for supplying the Ukrainian separatists with military hardware. More diplomatic and economic pressure should be brought to bear on Russia to reign in the separatists. Hopefully, this latest incident will go farther in turning global public opinion against Russia's support for the separatists in East Ukraine.

I also totally agree with the above post.

[copeab]

There is only one way to stop Russia, and it would probably fail. That is for for all the smaller countries that border it, that have territory that that Russia wants, to band together and attack Russia if Russia attacks any one of them.

Unfortunately, with Georgia out of the way and Ukraine in tatters, it's only a matter of time until Russia knocks on the doirs of Finland and Poland.

[Olefin]

I dont agree with appeasing Russia for one big reason - its never worked in the past. With anyone. In fact appeasement has usually led to wars breaking out because of mis-calculations that the other side was too weak and that they wouldnt reply this time because they didnt all the other times.

Remember Hilter kicked off Big Mistake Number Two for the Germans on the assumption that he had gotten away with it by remilitarizing the Rhineland and the Saar, built submarines and battleships in defiance of the Versailles Treaty, taken over Czechoslovakia and Austria - so why should anyone mind if he settles accounts with Poland?

Tens of millions of dead later it was pretty apparent that if people had stood up to him earlier he would have backed down big time.

And Russia has nuclear weapons - but frankly I dont think even Putin is stupid enough to actually do something that he knows will end with his homeland a radioactive wasteland in the cause of defending the right of his boyos to shoot down unarmed airliners.

In the end if you let countries act like barbarians then you get barbaric acts and lots of of them.

And economic sanctions may work in the end - but it hasnt worked against North Korea or Iran or Cuba - and I dont see the Europeans hanging tough for years, especially if the Russians decide that their natural gas and oil can better be sold to other people.

And no one wants to start a war with Russia - but frankly Teddy Roosevelt was right - talk softly but have that big stick when you need it. Economics may in the end prove to be that big stick. And in the end that did bring down the Soviet Union. We just had to stick it out for 45 years to do that to them. But we also showed them the whole time that we were ready to back up economic power with military power as well.

And its time we grew a set and actually had the guts to stand up to Putin because frankly if the British and French had done that in 1936 or 1938 we may not have had Europe look like a moonscape by 1945.

Or are we saying that any country that has atomic weapons can act like barbarians and we will let them get away with it?

[Raellus]

Olefin, what do you suggest we do? And please be more specific than "stand up to Putin". Would you be willing to spark a war with Russia to resolve the situation in East Ukraine?

[Sanjuro]

I have to ask though, don't Civilian Airliners have anything to detect a missile lock? A warning light? Anything?
Nope, nothing- not that there is anything we could do anyway. Best defence against an inbound, tracking missile is to let it get close then try and out-turn it- difficult to do in a 9G capable fighter, pretty much impossible in a 2G airliner.
My employer stopped overflying Ukraine several weeks ago, when it was advisory only.

[Askold]

I don't want to touch the political debates here even with a 10 meter pole...


The "Donetsk Republic" troops/separatists/rebels/goons have Anti Air missile system (or several systems) which is probably BUK M1. They bragged earlier that they stole one such system from the Ukrainian military and it is also possible that they "stole" more from Russia. (Apparently for some reason Russian troops drove some military vehicles to the border and then just forgot about them when they walked back to their base and those nasty separatists went and took them. Oh dear.)

The thing is that BUK M1 has a targeting radar so the vehicle can lock onto a target and launch missiles without the command vehicle. But it cannot identify those targets, that is what the command vehicle is for.

You see, if this was done "professionally" by an organised military they would have the command units and other troops identifying planes and might even run a ground control and actually (this is a wild idea) contact the planes and ask them what business they have rather just shooting everything they see. But the separatists do not have the capability to do that and even though this particular plane ALWAYS flew over Ukraine it had drifted a bit from the regular route since they were dodging a storm. So if the SAM troops even bothered to check when and where planes fly over them this particular one would have been an oddity. Still, they saw a plane they didn't recognise and shot it down without bothering to see what kind of plane it is so I have no sympathy for these trigger happy murderers.

Ok, I will mention one political bit. I was watching RT with some friends after we heard about the news and the Russian versions of this "accident" (that is what they called it initially) would have been hilarious if almost 300 people hadn't just been killed.

-They joked about Malaysian planes falling down regularly and wondered if this was yet another accident. (Stay classy RT)

-They had an expert from USA talking about how reckless it is to fly over a warzone. (Ok, this particular flight routinely flew over east Ukraine, Afghanistan and along the border between Pakistan and India, so yeah, the airline management are risk takers with other peoples lives.)

-They implied that the Kiev Goverment troops had shot down this plane, like the earlier incident few years ago when they accidentally shot down an civilian plane.

-They claimed that the rebels had no weapons cabable of doing this.

And the final straw:
-The final version that they have settled on is that this was an Ukrainian failed assassination attempt on Putin. Apparently Putin's plane flew over that area just few minutes before the Malaysian plane and the two planes look similar which is why the Ukrainian fighter planes shot the wrong plane down. ...Don't ask me why Putin would have been visiting east Ukraine...



The fact is that unless this was a false flag attack the Ukrainian troops have no reason to use SAM. The separatists have no air force and concidering that the separatists did make that claim of having shot down an Ukrainian plane at the same exact place on the same exact time before redacting it the odds are that they did this by mistake.

EDIT:

Actually, someone claimed that according to his calculations if the Crew was only using the radar on the BUK they would have about 140 second window to choose wether or not to shoot the plane, perhaps even less. Add to that that the Friend or Foe identification system would only recognise planes belonging to the same military (for example you could put the Russian code that would show Russian planes as friendlies) and has no way to identify civilian planes or planes belonging to other militaries. So the crew had a very short time to choose wether to shoot or to let the plane pass by.

The rebels are not gaining any sympathy points with their excuses and claims:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2697895/Now-rebel-commander-blamed-downing-MH17-says-bodies-aren-t-fresh-claims-corpses-dead-days.html

[rcaf_777]

I seem to remember seeing something in popular mech about a laser deflection system that was being developed for civilian airlines?

[Askold]

Putting counter measures on a civilian airlines plane sounds like making city busses bullet proof. It should not be necessary for those and if it is then it is not adressing the real problem. (Like if school teacher who says not to worry about your kids because he is wearing a condom / she is on a pill...)


I mean, these planes shouldn't be flying over warzones at all and attacking civilian planes is illegal and just so wrong in so many ways that it should not be an issue.

Besides I don't feel like paying two or three times as much for my airplane tickets just because the plane has some anti-missile flares and ECM etc.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

The latest buzz is that the separatists are looting the crash site.

Stay classy, russians.

[kcdusk]

Malaysian Airlines was flying the route because it is the shortest, and therefore the cheapest. Maybe they shouldn't be flying over the Ukraine or any war zone, but if you put pins on a map of all the "war zones" how much safe flying space is left, and what kind of weird flight paths would be necessary to get from A to B?

I read (so take with a grain of salt) that airlines only fuel up enough to get to their destination (with small margin of error) to encourage pilots to do everything they can to save petrol.

Adding countermeasures would add cost, so airlines won't do that.

"Separatists looting the crash site" could mean a few different things in the real world. Is it locals stealing money from wallets (not a nice thought, but given how poor the villagers are it might be a once in a life time opportunity for a few dollars)? Is it people taking metal? Bodies (trophies, ransoms)?

[SionEwig]

<SNIP>

"Separatists looting the crash site" could mean a few different things in the real world. Is it locals stealing money from wallets (not a nice thought, but given how poor the villagers are it might be a once in a life time opportunity for a few dollars)? Is it people taking metal? Bodies (trophies, ransoms)?

Credit cards. That area is very well known for credit card fraud. Plus possibilities of recovering data from peoples various electronic devices which would lead to more fraud.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Credit cards. That area is very well known for credit card fraud. Plus possibilities of recovering data from peoples various electronic devices which would lead to more fraud.

There's a YT video of them going through some guy's luggage; they jack his binocs but throw them back because they're broken.

[pmulcahy11b]

Let's not forget the Russians have done this before. KAL anyone?

Russian soldiers are world-known for their propensity towards atrocities. Crimea, World Wars one and two, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Afghanistan.

[stormlion1]

Looting and what appears to be destroying evidence. Not that there is all that much evidence to begin with. Its pretty cut and dried a missile hit the plane. But what they are probably looking for is missile fragments with serial codes. The looting is a added bonus to the militants.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

If they wish to destroy evidence perhaps we could assist them with concentrated JDAM strikes.

[Askold]

Russians, Russians, Russians...

They. Are. UKRAINIANS! (Or from people's Republic of Donetsk as they call the area they now control)

If some Canadian guy steals a wallet do you start complaining about "those God damn yankees" then?

...I know that the separatists are backed up and armed by Russia but they are still mainly Ukrainians. It was Crimea where they got Russian passports and the area was annexed wether the locals wanted or not. Donetsk is trying to become a separate country.

(And the looting seems to be acts of individuals rather than organised and approved by the militia.)

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Russians, Russians, Russians...

They. Are. UKRAINIANS!

Yes, I'm entirely certain there are no Spetznaz on the ground directing this. Yessir, not a one.

[Askold]

Yes, I'm entirely certain there are no Spetznaz on the ground directing this. Yessir, not a one.

Oh, are you saying that the looters are Spetznaz or just that there are Spetznaz in Ukraine?

There were certainly Spetznaz at Crimea. That can be proven quite easily as the "volunteer troops who bought their weapons and gear from shops" had brand new 5.45mm Kalashnikovs with underslung grenade launcher that aren't for sale to civilians and there even were units which all had 2000€ optics on their guns. Not to mention that at least on one occasion Ukrainian troops captured "volunteer militia" members who were carrying their Russian military ID. ...Oops.

At Donetsk? If you have seen proof of Spetznaz then I am sure that several news agencies would be interested in seeing that. The separatists are mainly using gear that is either looted from Ukrainian military stores or the Russians were just smarter this time and issued older gear. The BUKs I think are the first military equipment that could be proven to have come from Russians. (And now there are already stories claiming that BUKs were seen being moved out of Donetsk and into Russia after downing the airplane.)

I have no doubts that Russians are backing up the separatists and many of the leaders, including the Igor Girkin / Igor Strelkov a former(?) FSB agent who first took credit for shooting the Malaysian plane, are Russians.

BUT most of the separatists seem to be Ukrainians even if they are pro-Russian Ukrainians. If there are Russian "advisors" or troops on the ground they are keeping a really low profile this time.

[kato13]

The one person I happen to know from the Donetsk region absolutely considers herself to be Russian and not Ukrainian. She is my friend's stepmother and you would not believe the amount of ridiculous propaganda that she gets from her former neighbors that I have to counter to my friend. Stories of the Kiev government moving Jews into camps, Ukrainians performing blood sacrifices of children, etc.

Yes it is a single data point, but some in the area very much consider themselves Russian, and I would assume those with that identification would certainly be more supportive of the separatists.

[schnickelfritz]

MSN is reporting that the Seperatists are using cranes to disturb/salvage/loot the crash site.

I'm a bit baffled that there are not airmobile or mechanized Ukrainian Army formations that cannot be sent to secure the site.

The pics of these thugs standing around and menacing the investigators was not shocking in that it was happening, but shocking in its audacity and scope. It seems to be a sharp stick in the eye of the international community and a raised middle finger for good measure.

Dave

[stormlion1]

The area in question isn't even near being under Ukrainian control and would take a dedicated effort and troops pulled from elsewhere to secure it. The Ukrainians are willing to benefit from the propaganda value of this, but that is as far as they can or are willing to go.

[unkated]

I dont agree with appeasing Russia for one big reason - its never worked in the past. With anyone. In fact appeasement has usually led to wars breaking out because of mis-calculations that the other side was too weak and that they wouldnt reply this time because they didnt all the other times.

Remember Hilter kicked off Big Mistake Number Two for the Germans on the assumption that he had gotten away with it by remilitarizing the Rhineland and the Saar, built submarines and battleships in defiance of the Versailles Treaty, taken over Czechoslovakia and Austria - so why should anyone mind if he settles accounts with Poland?

Oh, good. I'm not the only one who has noticed that Putin seems to be using Hitler's 1938 Playbook. It amused me in a horrifying way when Putin was accusing the Ukraine government of being Nazis, when his Russian government was the one most emulating the Nazis in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

And Russia has nuclear weapons - but frankly I dont think even Putin is stupid enough to actually do something that he knows will end with his homeland a radioactive wasteland in the cause of defending the right of his boyos to shoot down unarmed airliners.

<snip>

And its time we grew a set and actually had the guts to stand up to Putin because frankly if the British and French had done that in 1936 or 1938 we may not have had Europe look like a moonscape by 1945.

Or are we saying that any country that has atomic weapons can act like barbarians and we will let them get away with it?

Two points.


In September 1938, at the time of the Sudentenland Crisis, Chamberlain met with the heads of the British military and asked if they were ready to fight a war with Germany. They told him no, they weren't, that they needed more time. With that knowledge, he went to Munich and appeased Germany. However, also in September 1938, the British military started calling up and training their army and RAF reserves, and factories started running around the clock.

You always have the question with nuclear weapons how far you can push someone before they strike back. Could we threaten Putin with losing Moscow or Volgograd? Yes. Can he offer to trade it for Chicago or LA or Miami? Yes. Hmmm.


The shooting down of the Malaysia Air liner certainly ups the ante in eastern Ukraine. Is the United States (or France, Britain, German or the Netherlands) ready to send boots on the ground? I don't think so yet.

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

Olefin, what do you suggest we do? And please be more specific than "stand up to Putin". Would you be willing to spark a war with Russia to resolve the situation in East Ukraine?

Answer: Yes i would be willing threaten to spark a war with Russia if possible to stop a much bigger war later on.

Our allies and friends have to know that the US will be willing to stand up for them as we said we would. Thats why Hitler got away with what he did - because in the end the French and British were paper tigers and let him build up and conquer to where he couldnt be stopped short of a general war.

And consider the fact that the Russians havent been brainwashed completely into a cult following like the North Koreans have - given the US standing up and saying enough is enough and be willign to back it up I highly doubt that the Russians will jump into a war to defend the right to shoot down civilian airliners because Putin's ego would be bruised otherwise.

For all his bluster and BS he isnt Stalin and the Russian military knows damn well what would happen if they went to war with the US. I dont see them ready to committ suicide for Donetsk.

We signed an agreement with the Ukraine where they gave up their nukes in exchange for promises from the US to prevent exactly what is going on with the Russians now. And I doubt the MRE's we have delivered have done much in the way of honoring that agreement

Oh and there are lots of ways the US could make Putin's life a living hell short of war - like arming the Ukranians, training their troops, all out economic warfare with the Russians, moving US forces into Poland and the Baltics and Slovakia that are bigger than the speed bump battalions that are there now, putting the missile shield into Poland and Czech Republic, stationing Aegis ships in the Baltic and Black Sea permanently, etc..

[kato13]

We signed an agreement with the Ukraine where they gave up their nukes in exchange for promises from the US to prevent exactly what is going on with the Russians now. And I doubt the MRE's we have delivered have done much in the way of honoring that agreement

Technically this was never submitted to the Senate and therefore never signed as a treaty. It is legally null and void.

This still floors me that the Ukrainians accepted this fact and still got rid of their nukes. Given it was politicians making the promises, it seem a bit like paying for insurance but never getting anything in writing in return. "We will cover you Trust us."

[Askold]

Technically this was never submitted to the Senate and therefore never signed as a treaty. It is legally null and void.

This still floors me that the Ukrainians accepted this fact and still got rid of their nukes. Given it was politicians making the promises, it seem a bit like paying for insurance but never getting anything in writing in return. "We will cover you Trust us."

Or they just wanted to get rid of the nukes and perhaps did not believe that a war (with nuclear weapons) was likely.


http://yle.fi/uutiset/russia_demands_investigation_into_claims_finns_joi ned_fighting_in_ukraine/7368805#susi1

Not saying that this is impossible, I'm sure we have some people who would like to have a "rematch" with Russians but all these claims from Russia and the Donetsk gang are getting crazier everyday.

[Adm.Lee]

An interesting take on this, going back to the Cold War: http://johncbeck.tumblr.com/post/92074597917/count-to-ten-when-a-plane-goes-down

This time, however, I am in agreement with many that it sure looks like the separatists did it, with a SAM they got from Russia, and the same separatists are muddying the evidence to deflect blame.

[Damocles]

Great Link Adm.Lee. It takes guts for someone to admit such a mistake. Quite a useful article for me professionally as well. Thank you!

[Adm.Lee]

These also seem relevant:

http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

and:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/science_fiction_writers_predicted_ukraine_conflict _now_they_re_fighting.html

This last one, along with a biography of Putin I just finished last month, has me really suspicious about how long the current hostilities have been planned years in advance.

The first one can remind us that when a population has no outside sources of information, even a large population can fall for propaganda. And the latter one can show us a valid kind of propaganda, warming up the fear of/desire to fight against "fascist invaders".

[pmulcahy11b]

Does Putin actually want a war? They'd end up with a pyrrhic victory at best.

I like Sting's take on this: "It's such an ignorant thing to do, if the Russians love their children too."

[Schone23666]

Does Putin actually want a war? They'd end up with a pyrrhic victory at best.

I like Sting's take on this: "It's such an ignorant thing to do, if the Russians love their children too."

No...not exactly a "full-blown war" in the old Cold War sense if you will, I think Putin is just applying the old Soviet playbook of war by proxy against the "evil Western Imperialists", much the same way we (the West, that is) played against the Soviets during the Cold War. Problem is, you have to be careful not to gamble too much when rolling the dice, which some are afraid Putin or some idiot is going to do at some point, which is not without historical precedence.

Putin's not stupid enough (I think anyway) to want an all out war, but he and his inner circle really do miss the glory days of the U.S.S.R. and they've also got a bit of a chip on their shoulder in regards to the U.S. for various reasons, real and imagined. So none of this is surprising, it's just a question of how much he thinks he can control the situation.

To whit, here's an interesting article from Daily Beast (no, I'm not a fan of the site, but the article is interesting, take it with a grain of salt of course):

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/25/putin-s-number-one-gunman-in-ukraine-warns-him-of-possible-defeat.html


Everyone knows the Pentagon has been watching this mess. Now it seems, the rumors are confirmed they are "dusting off the old books", according to this article, make of it what you will:

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/dempsey-us-military-dusting-off-decades-readiness-plans/story?id=24713043



And to top it all off...it seems Putin's decided he's riding the tiger now and he's not getting off:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/25/russia-rocket-systems-ukraine_n_5621172.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

The Russians are transferring heavy artillery rocket launchers (Anyone know more about these or what model they might be, BM-9P140 Uragan perhaps?), and more APC's and MBT's to the separatists, and it seems they're building up Russian troops along the border, AGAIN.

[Askold]

Russian claim that an Ukrainian SU-25 shot down the plane is facing some problems. Mainly that an SU-25 cannot go higher than 7km (and that is without weapons. If armed the max altitude is 5km.) To combat this problem someone from Kremlin tried to edit the wikipedia pages of SU-25 to make it look like they could have flown to 10km.

http://gawker.com/did-russian-officials-edit-wikipedia-to-back-up-a-bogus-1609071757

Oops...