A step towards "fixing" the illogic of T2k 1's timeline?

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Here's a thought - just a quick, dashed off note between chores today...

Consider this: One of the things discovered (long) after RYAN intercepts listened in on Able Archer, and as we listened in on the cable taps put in the Sea of Oktosh and ... I think there was another one in the northern fleet area too, but regardless the US/NATO had two comm cable taps...

Anyway, one of the things discovered was that the Soviets were very much afraid the US from 1980 onward would cavalierly use nuclear weapons; that we were itching for an excuse to engage in a first strike, a quick decapitation.

So what if we give the Soviets what they want, for the purposes of T2k?

Let's say hypothetically, full of exuberance for the quick thrust into the USSR, when the nukes start to fly in earnest, in late November of 1997 (a day before the TDM) the US Gov't decides on a knockout punch, just a few key cities and facilities being hit - anywhere from 25-50 - and then use high-altitude bursts and x-ray pindown to hold the rest of the SRF off to finish a knockout blow and end the war.

So we hit the LPAR in Kola, Ukraine and other places first, then wipe out whatever EW satellites, then the Soviet equivalent of BMEWS and also nailing their "Looking Glass" equivalent on the ground, for the cost of maybe a hundred +/- warheads, and then engage in the aforementioned pin-down of the strategic rocket forces.

At the same time, US Los Angeles class boats and aggressive ASW are killing the Soviet boomers left, right and center. The bomber forces are likewise pinned down, having never had a chance. US bombers don't even have to leave fail-safe.

As "good" as this goes, the ragged response from the remnants of the Soviet strategic missile forces (Topol-M launchers with SS20s, for example) cripples the US with EMP blankets and the strikes as outlined in Howling Wilderness. The USSR is dead, but the US is, effectively, crippled. The war in Europe grinds on because the Soviets/WarPac there want the US out - not to make a "Greater USSR", but one - to get the villainous US troops as far away as possible (or kill them off) and two - to help their own nation recover by getting as many resources from what's left of Europe as possible.

This makes the US into a pariah state, with some of our erstwhile allies (France, Italy, and other NATO members) really unwilling to help us continue to prosecute the war. Indeed, at that point, Italy really does start shooting at us in some cases.

I know that makes the US into a mustache twirling villain, but it's a little more sensible than "Well we fired 50 strategic nukes at them and they 50 back at us and then no more."

Just a thought. What are y'all's feelings on that scenario?

[pmulcahy11b]

Personally, I don't consider the v1 timeline very illogical -- it's far better than v2 and v2.2 -- but I think the designers were trying to come with something to take into account recent events (at the time), bring the timeline up to date -- and failed the logic test.

[Raellus]

I'm struggling with a very similar scenario in my T2030 work vis-à-vis China. As a kid, I couldn't have imagined the U.S. pulling such a dick move as a first strike but now, as a much better informed adult, I have to admit that the possibility is, given the circumstances, actually somewhat plausible.

I've long banged the drum for the principle that the T2K universe is actually more of a multiverse. So, if you, as the GM/world builder, prefer your scenario to the original, go with it. If my opinion counts for anything, as I mentioned above, I think your scenario has merit.

[unkated]

So what if we give the Soviets what they want, for the purposes of T2k?

Let's say hypothetically, full of exuberance for the quick thrust into the USSR, when the nukes start to fly in earnest, in late November of 1997 (a day before the TDM) the US Gov't decides on a knockout punch, just a few key cities and facilities being hit - anywhere from 25-50 - and then use high-altitude bursts and x-ray pindown to hold the rest of the SRF off to finish a knockout blow and end the war.

So we hit the LPAR in Kola, Ukraine and other places first, then wipe out whatever EW satellites, then the Soviet equivalent of BMEWS and also nailing their "Looking Glass" equivalent on the ground, for the cost of maybe a hundred +/- warheads, and then engage in the aforementioned pin-down of the strategic rocket forces.

So we launch 25-50 missiles in a single strike, stepping up the strategic game quite a bit from the single hits. The logical assumption is that the US has upped the ante. You already told us they expected such a step, so they would be watching fro such a thing and have possible responses already planned. Their most logical response is full counter-strike before the US strike lands. EMP won't stop communication on shielded landlines - which they have. So, again, the logical response to a strike to blind is a full counter-strike.

And the US must have surely conferred with its NATO allies.

Bye US, bye UK, bye Germany. And bye China, too. And a couple at Japan. And... anyone else as they know they are not likely to get to shoot again.

Sounds like a good way to cut down on gaming in North America, and make Americans hated as evil bastards the world over. But it would make interesting gaming running from lynch mobs :-)

It would also end the war, as there would no longer be a Soviet Union (or USA, UK, or Germany) to supply troops in the field by 2000.

To me, it sounds like the kind of scenario that GDW made its twisted, unlikely time to avoid.

Uncle Ted