T2K Today

[Raellus]

Seems like 2009 has already brought us some troubling geopolitical developments.

Israel looks poised for an "invasion" of the Gaza strip.

Russia has cut off its gas pipeline to the Ukraine.

In Iraq, the U.S. has apparently turned over control of the "Green Zone" to the Iraqis while in Afghanistan, the U.S. looks to be about to innitiate a large-scale offensive in the south.

Not to mention that the recent trouble in Nigeria and Zimbabwe as well as the ongoing conflicts in the Congo region and the Sudan/Darfur.

The Iranians are still working on their reactor and god knows what else. Israel has made no secret of its preparations to put an end to that.

So many threads (or fuses) which could lead to a not-so-ditant future armageddon.

Happy New Year!

[General Pain]

Seems like 2009 has already brought us some troubling geopolitical developments.

Israel looks poised for an "invasion" of the Gaza strip.

Russia has cut off its gas pipeline to the Ukraine.

In Iraq, the U.S. has apparently turned over control of the "Green Zone" to the Iraqis while in Afghanistan, the U.S. looks to be about to innitiate a large-scale offensive in the south.

Not to mention that the recent trouble in Nigeria and Zimbabwe as well as the ongoing conflicts in the Congo region and the Sudan/Darfur.

The Iranians are still working on their reactor and god knows what else. Israel has made no secret of its preparations to put an end to that.

So many threads (or fuses) which could lead to a not-so-ditant future armageddon.

Happy New Year!

Reality is usually the most disturbing story.

[bigehauser]

Which is why I deny your reality, and substitute it with my own! HURRAY!

[Mohoender]

You forgot about the slow military build up on the Indo-Pakistanese border right before christmas and the increasing threat on NATO supply road by Talibans. Our media are more interesting by the loss of soldiers but something like 230 trucks destroyed in early december might be more threatening. True, this is not strictly speaking 2009.

[LAW0306]

In my view I dont see anything big here. We have won the war In Iraq and are about to leave. My unit might be one of the last ones there. Israel and the arabs will fight for another 1000 years just like they have the last 1000 years. Russia always blows it own horn but they dont have the ass too do much. It took all they had logisticly to take on Georgia for gods sake and they were using 50 year old gear with troops wearing western athletic shoes! Israel will hit Iran in all due time and they wont get it all,But they will set them back long enough to make them feel safe. Africa is always a shit storm and there is nothing we can do too fix it. I have handed out rice there and gave away aid and have also done combat action there. The place wont change until the kill themselfs off. Very sad have friends there and they try but as I was told by one"It like swimming in quick sand Law". On afghanistan well the spring will tell we are by offical news sending in 4 brigades of light and Medium Infantry (Army) about 5,000 to 7,000 each.Also one Marine Brigade about 12,000. so the surge there will swamp the south. I was there in 2001 and we clamped the place down with 600 infantry and some SF types. So I dont have much fear if you look to the past this year will be more of the same. Just pray for all the Afghanistan men that will die this spring and summer. Because Mother green and her killing machine are coming, and they are hungry!

[ChalkLine]

Israel will in all likelihood not make a ground entrance into the Gaza, as they have Hamas nicely bottled up and can pound them there with minimal risk. Their absolute indifference to global opinion means they don't need a quick resolution, and they can continue to victimise the Palestinians until after the February election. Hamas can't get out, Egypt hates them just as much as they have strong ties to the Egyptian 'permanent opposition' (so much for Egyptian democracy) so they'll do whatever they can to fight back, which unfortunately translates to more crappy home made rockets blowing up farmland. Followed by IDF jets dropping 2000lb bombs.

Iraq may well turn into an utter shit hole when the last foreign forces pull out, but that was going to happen anyway. It remains to be seen if the parliamentary system will hold, because unlike many other Persian areas tribalism isn't as strong in Iraq and there are far less familial ties to tear the country apart. The lull you see now is the stockpiling of munitions and the gathering of strength for the big test when it's just Iraqis duking it out. Iran has a lot to fear, and may have to move troops up to the border when it all flies apart, which is bound to be misinterpreted in the west.

Russia and Ukraine are playing their old game. Ukraine wants a settled Afghanistan and points south so they can import their fuel, and Russia is getting in some kicks now while they can. Don't be quick to paint Ukraine as the underdog, they pull a lot of shitty stuff in Russia. For instance, most heroin in Russia comes through the Ukrainian organitskya, rumoured to have official help.

The UN is compartmentalising Congo and Sudan, and have managed to actually try one of the Sudanese alleged war criminals (yay UN!). Unfortunately, the Congo is going to be an utter hell hole for another century at least because the warring tribes are all proxy funded by international mining companies (a' la 'Dogs of War'). There is no political or military solution there, but the fighting is usually limited to the capital and the resource areas. Yes, another ugly year for the Congolese on top of the last three hundred.

Iran's not in a good place. Israel is having an election soon and often gets very feisty militarily around then - it's been noted that nearly every recent conflict the IDF has had has been around an election. Iran is going to be out of oil within fifty years and needs a new power infrastructure before then, and would like nuclear parity with the IDF if possible (but then, so does everyone in the Middle East). Iran is having Kurd troubles again and is making quiet talks with Turkey, which is having the usual problems of theocracy/democracy hurdles. Iran's moderate faction really wants stable borders, but with Afghanistan, Iraq and de facto Kurdistan all hopping its playing right into the extremist's hands.

Mexico isn't having much fun, thier economy's tanking bad as more developed economies are venting pressure into it and unemployment is going up again. The border provinces are experiencing severe law and order breakdown, and the recent anti-Mexican rhetoric used to their north has made them unlikely to help out with the drug smuggling problems except where it suits themselves. The president has moved troops into the northern provinces to wrest control back and an insurgency is starting up via the drug barons. Looks nasty.

Asia's looking rather stable as the big powers have found other things to dick with, leaving the pace primarily to Chinese investors. Thailand's a bit unstable, but that's just the usual domestic stuff and not military. Jihadism seems to be down at the moment with the new US president having Indonesian history, which really is appreciated there.

South America is fairly quiet, and even that painful wound in the Caribbean - Haiti - seems to be keeping the lid on. From what I hear though it's only held together by the troops there.

Zimbabwe is a nightmare, and Bob's certifiably bug-fuck insane. However, the ZANU-PD machine is almost entirely military now and is not letting go. South Africa isn't about to set a match to that, but there's rising demands that 'something be done' (usually the precursor to something disastrous) from everyone. The Zimbabwe soldiers are the sole beneficiaries of any money in Zimbabwe, and their kit and skills aren't bad on sub-Saharan scale. The Zimbabwian people know better to try an insurgency, it'd make the Rwandan massacres look tame - but something has to give.

[Targan]

Israel and the arabs will fight for another 1000 years just like they have the last 1000 years.
Umm, with respect, that isn't the case. Before the state of Israel was carved out there just wasn't that level of wholesale violence in that area between Muslims and non Muslims, not since the time of the crusades. At the risk of upsetting my Jewish friends, the nation of Israel has brought the violence there upon themselves. I'm not about to justify the shocking things the Palestinians and jihadist Arab groups have done (I don't think anyone can except maybe Palestinians and jihadist Arab groups) but they are terrorists and that is what terrorists do. Israel is a sovereign nation and should know better. Time and time again the Israeli military engages in wholly disproportionate levels of slaughter and seem quite happy to butcher 20 women and children to kill one terrorist. The Israeli government makes placating noises to the rest of the world with statements like "Of course we regret the deaths of civilians but we reserve the right to defend our citizens" but it sounds pretty hollow to me. And it is all for what? Because God supposedly told the Jewish people millennia ago that the Holy Land was theirs and theirs alone? Yeah, right.

Everything Chalkline said in his last post is (as always) absolutely correct.

In my personal opinion Robert Mugabe should be tried in the Hague and failing that one bullet would solve Zimbabwe's biggest problem.

I wish Australia had a military ten times its current size. The Australian Army has been doing good work in Afghanistan and if there were more Aussies there we would be able to kick the shit out of the Taliban right alongside out American, UK, Canadian and other NATO friends.

[pmulcahy11b]

Don't forget Somalia in the s**thole department -- that place is a country only in name. I have a friend who was with 10th Mountain during our ill-fated intervention that has loads of horror stories about that place -- I'm glad I didn't have to go there.

[pmulcahy11b]

You forgot about the slow military build up on the Indo-Pakistanese border right before christmas and the increasing threat on NATO supply road by Talibans. Our media are more interesting by the loss of soldiers but something like 230 trucks destroyed in early december might be more threatening. True, this is not strictly speaking 2009.

Northern Pakistan is so out of control from the Pakistani government that it's like it's not actually a part of Pakistan. It's largely lawless, mountainous, full of poor rural folk and a few fatcats that basically decide whether the ordinary folk live or die -- and the resurgent Taliban and Al Qaida. The Pakistani government doesn't control Northern Pakistan, and the Pakistani Army would prefer not to set foot up there -- and when they do, they are more likely to make a deal with the warlords, Taliban, and Al Qaida to leave each other alone.

[LAW0306]

I guess we just see history a different way Targen (read the Bible; Jews and arabs fighting.the crusades,Ottaman empire and the time of terror 1920-and 30's in Israel) . Lets just leave it at that.

I was in somalia in 93 Oct with Charlie 1/8. We got there right after Blackhawk down. Clinton was too pussy to let us do our job thats why we fight now. we had Two MEU's about 5,000 marines a small brigade of tenth mountian and a bunch of SF. We could have cleaned that place up in a Quarter. But we leave and another 100,000 die.

[pmulcahy11b]

I'll have to go with Law on this one. The Middle East, and in particular the "Holy Land," is perhaps the bloodiest region on the planet -- as one of our "Cradles of Civilization," they've been slugging it out over there thousands of years before there were any Muslims and Jews. Neither the Arabic peoples or the Jews can say they were there first -- because neither one of them were. All the people in that area most likely came to settle there from somewhere else -- and they've been slugging it out ever since.

But I only partially agree with Law. Once the oil runs out (or hopefully, we have enough alternate energy sources to make oil superfluous), nobody's going to give a rat's ass about the Middle East anymore. Even Israel is going to become irrelevant to most of the world; it's primarily value to the Western world is as our one strong ally in the Middle East (Turkey's becoming less and less reliable by the day). The OPEC countries don't have any more foresight than the fossil fuel industry -- they'd be smart to invest in alternate energy and become energy companies and not just oil companies.

[Mohoender]

Shoot I didn't want to go into that one.

Sorry, the middle east has not been subjected to war over the past thousand years, except of course for the one brought upon them by Europeans, and now Americans.

In fact, it has been among the most stable area of the world until the 19th century when the Otoman Empire started to really lose control. However, it had always been a pain for the western world and that was always for economical reasons. They put taxes on our imports from Asia, control the spice trade until the 15th century, backed the pirates (in fact, privateers) that were operating off Al Djazair.

While we were killing people all over Europe for so called religious reasons (that's why US exist today), they were tolerant toward all sister religions (Christians and Jews).

They were not all saints, of course, and brought quite some war against us as well: ask the Spanish and the people in the Balkans, they know.

[LAW0306]

Paul lets hope the oil runs out then my girls wont have to fly F-35's over the area some day.

[Mohoender]

Paul lets hope the oil runs out then my girls wont have to fly F-35's over the area some day.

I hope for them too. However, they might fly them over some other areas for any other reasons (or even that one). I might be idiealistic and constantly hope for the better, but the pragmatic side of me mutters me that it still looks like a never ending story.:(

[bigehauser]

In all honesty, I think this is just a big ploy(Israel situation) to test the waters as far as America's new president. Now that the game spitting, and mud raking is over, and he is inaugurated in a few weeks, there is no reason why he can't speak his mind 100% I think Israel is just stirring up the pot to see what ol Prez will say, and what stand he will take as far as the sectarian violence over there.

[Legbreaker]

We could have cleaned that place up in a Quarter. But we leave and another 100,000 die.
I'd say it's not just Clinton, or the US for that matter, but politicians the world over. If the various militaries were given the resources necessary and the handcuffs removed, then a hell of a lot of the problems of today wouldn't exist.
However, we may run the risk of loosing freedoms and so on (as if the people who are dying now give a rats about that!), so....

Generalising somewhat, I'd have to say that pretty much the entire middle east and Africa, as well as parts of Asia and South and Central America, will always have troubles in one form or another. Sure other countries can send in the troops for a while and quieten things down, but once they pull out, chances are it'll all start up again. Might take a month, a year or more, but unless the underlying causes, which are often centries or millenia old are dealt with, no amount of troops is going to permanently solve things.

[Jason Weiser]

Targan,
With due respect: (disclaimer: All opinions are my own. In the interests of full disclosure, I have in-laws in Israel).

1) That area of the world has had trouble since the Sumerians and Babylonians threw down over god knows what excuse lost to the passage of time. In some ways, I doubt anyone in the Mid East is ever going to know complete peace...just lulls to reload.

2) As for the current Israel-Pali trouble. Well, my opinion is complicated. The cycle seems to be that the Palestinians and Israelis make a deal. The Palestinians then provoke a response, then Israel reciprocates. No, it's not good, and yeah, innocents on both sides die. But here comes the question, at the end of the day, who do you want as neighbors? I could argue the fact that the Israelis aren't the only folks in the region to have problems with the Palestinians. I could argue that were Israel to cease to exist, that you'd just be adding to the stateless persons issue, not to mention the old "Jews need a state because of historical abuse when they live anywhere else". As for disproportionate...well, I dunno. Who defines that? You, me? the UN? The politicians? Sure it stinks when we see a six year old kid on the news screaming in pain. But does anyone ask, WTH was she doing anywhere near where the Israelis were bombing when they're using GPS guided munitions and calling folks on cellphones in Arabic to get the hell out before the strikes go in? Me thinks Hamas might not be letting them leave because they are using that poor kid for their own ends. You might not like it, but as was said in Merc 2000 Gazetteer "Both sides have a point". (See, brought it back to Twilight 2000) When you have an entire population that's being at the very least made indifferent to their children being radicalized and martyrdom being made a status symbol, then it's hard not to see that Israel's in a nasty situation. Yes, she had something to do with that. But the fact remains, hindsight is 20/20, and when Hamas talks about "driving the Israelis into the sea", then the Israelis had better believe it. I think the Arabs are getting nervous as well. They helped create this mess as well, and now, they're beginning to recognize just how much work they are going to have to clean it up. Will they? I don't know.

3) Fall back on what I do regarding things Mideastern. It's all the fault of the Brits and French: Balfour Declaration and the Sykes-Picot Agreement. If they had just kept their damn secret treaties straight.....:D

[Targan]

We all know what is happening in Gaza. I think it is unreasonable. Others think it is reasonable. Nothing I say will change the way others feel about it. If you think killing women and children in the dozens if not hundreds is fine then so be it.

[Mohoender]

We all know what is happening in Gaza. I think it is unreasonable. Others think it is reasonable. Nothing I say will change the way others feel about it. If you think killing women and children in the dozens if not hundreds is fine then so be it.

I agree with that but the worse on that matter is probably the fact that both Hamas and Israel agree on the fact that it is fine.

[Jason Weiser]

We all know what is happening in Gaza. I think it is unreasonable. Others think it is reasonable. Nothing I say will change the way others feel about it. If you think killing women and children in the dozens if not hundreds is fine then so be it.

Not going to rise to the bait Targan..:rolleyes: I didn't say that..and all I will say is you cannot argue that I was condoning such behavior.

[Raellus]

We all know what is happening in Gaza. I think it is unreasonable. Others think it is reasonable. Nothing I say will change the way others feel about it. If you think killing women and children in the dozens if not hundreds is fine then so be it.

The Israelis sent in ground forces today.

I've been doing a fair amount of reading on the Middle East lately (just finished Michael B. Oren's Six Days of War and am currently working on Abraham Rabinovich's The Yom Kippur War) and it is quite clear that both sides, Arabs and Israelis, can share the blame for what is going on in Gaza right now.

However, the fact of the matter is that the Arab regimes in the region (save Egypt and Jordan, a dictatorship and a non-constitutional monarchy, respectively) and factions within the Palestinian communities in Israel and abroad, refuse to even acknowledge the existence of Israel. In the not-so-distant past- and to this very day- Arab nations and Palestinian "freedom fighters" have made no secret of their desire to wipe the state of Israel off the map. And, only a fool would argue that such a feat would not result in a second Holocaust. That is the always in the back of every Israeli's mind and must therefore also be at the forefront of every Israeli general and policy maker's mind. I can't remember who said it (Moshe Dayan, Ben Gurion?) but the Arab states can afford to lose a war or two but Israel, if it should lose but one, will cease to exist.

I agree 100% that Israeli's current response seems disproportionate to the provocation. 400 Palestinians dead (at least a quarter of them civilians) for 3 dead Israeli civilians tells the story here. I will agree that, in many ways, Israeli control of the occupied territories resembles Apartheid. I am not pleased with how Israel comports itself with regards to a majority of Palestinians but I do believe that, as a sovereign state, Israel has a right (if not a responsibility) to defend itself against attack.

So, to the Palestinian apologists out there, how exactly do you think Israel should react to indescriminate rocket attacks on its civilian population centers?

To be fair, at least the Israelis make some efforts to avoid civilian casualties. Hamas et al make NO efforts to do the same. In fact, they seem hell bent on doing just the opposite. And, they don't seem to opposed to hiding behind their own civilian supporters when push comes to shove. Every dead Palestinian child is a political and propaganda victory for them and they seem to go out of their way to make sure that such tragedies occur.

How would you deal with an enemy like that? You seem to advocate that the Israeli's should sit on their hands while continuing to eat some more Iranian-made rockets and/or reward such behavior with political concessions. Seriously?

Please do tell. I will offer my own solution as well.

[ChalkLine]

Yep, I got that wrong.

I can't understand why they'd do this. True, it's not like Hezbollah with strong supply lines and a reinforced position, but it's bloody risky. If Hamas chooses to fight it out amongst the rubble there could be some serious reverses for the IDF.

That said, this would make a good live-fire training for Lebanon: The Return.

[ChalkLine]

I have several Palestinian and Lebanese friends. There is a large refugee presence in Australia, as there's been 1.4 million displaced Palestinians pushed out alone.

First off, it's a basic error to refer to these people as 'The Palestinians'. They were a thriving region of multiple ethnicities and religions.

Second off, the concept of 'wipe Israel off the map' is a nuanced statement. What it means in English is essentially that they deny the original UN mandate recognising the de facto conquering their land of Palestine (then southern Syria) and handing it to a largely foreign people for things they had no part in. They claim, and I think with a good reason, that it was the last and worst action of colonialism.
They say that the foreigners inflicted well armed, foreign and alien people on them who, when they fought back, pushed them off the map and into camps - and then never let them out again.
This is all strictly true.
The deny the concept of 'Israel' as 'our land promised by foreigners in their religion which they keep us in servitude, slavery and misery'. This is what 'wipe Israel off the map' means, and it similar to wanting 'Rhodesia' gone meant - the natives want their own region back. Yes, Zimbabwe sucks, but it's a lesson for what we have to deal with if an occupier brutalises the indigenous population living there.

As you guys probably know, since I stopped surveying I've been studying to become a historian. In Israel something is happening that is shocking historians; they are rewriting the local history to edit out the Palestinians. Villages that were extant when Australian troops rode through in World War One are now claimed to never have existed. This is something that must not be permitted to happen, if you rewrite history you are engaging in George Orwell's 1984 tactics. Alan Dershowitz has successfully stopped a historian getting tenure at his university due to 'anti-Semitism', which is odd because the guy was Jewish. All he was doing was documenting Palestinian village history. This is not normal Israeli behaviour, it is the behaviour of a conquering elite and a chilling insight into what may come.

I'm fairly pragmatic, I think Israel is there now but I still know that Palestine is there as well. If Israel wants to continue its Spartan/Helot relationship with the Palestinians it should encounter the same attitude that the Spartans got in the ancient world; resistance from democracies.

As for Hamas, Fatah and the PLO.
Well, when the PLO came back and Rabin was murdered, everything fell to pieces. The West Bank and Gaza are captive communities (and some of the densest population areas on earth, which means bombing should never be allowed). the PLO was called 'The Libyans' by the Palestinians because there weren't considered to have Palestine interests at heart, and Fatah is just as corrupted by the Israeli commercial interests they are the conduit for.
That leaves Hamas, which is by any definition extremist. But, they are also the Gaza infrastructure. The men of Hamas are not 'fighters', they are also police officers, firemen, ambulance drivers, postmen and so on. When these men are targeted they are gutting Gaza of its infrastructure. When 'Hamas targets' are struck they are hitting police stations and disaster relief.
This not war. This is not insurgency. You know what it is.

[Haven]

My only opinion:


Ultimately, if you can't argue both sides and make a good case for both sides .... you're close minded.

[Raellus]

First off, it's a basic error to refer to these people as 'The Palestinians'. They were a thriving region of multiple ethnicities and religions.

Yes, but for the sake of brevity, I chose the umbrella term Palestinians (the majority being Muslim Arabs). Informed people, I am sure, know what we are talking about.


Second off, the concept of 'wipe Israel off the map' is a nuanced statement.

Only if it is spun. If you look at quotes from Arab leaders like Nasser, young Arafat, Assad, the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, Ahmadinejad, etc. you will see that ethnic cleansing and genocide was/is their ultimate aim. They used this rhetoric publicly in order to generate support on the Arab "street" where these ideas are rather popular, to this day. Not to mention the undercurrent of Arab/Islamic radicalism that exists throughout the Middle East, even in "friendly" Arab states (see Sadat's assassination for pursuing peace with Israeli). I'm not sure how a people as persecuted as the Jews have been are supposed to take this sort of talk. As I said before, it is naive at best to assume that an Israeli military defeat would result in anything less than a second Holocaust.


As you guys probably know, since I stopped surveying I've been studying to become a historian. In Israel something is happening that is shocking historians; they are rewriting the local history to edit out the Palestinians. Villages that were extant when Australian troops rode through in World War One are now claimed to never have existed. This is something that must not be permitted to happen, if you rewrite history you are engaging in George Orwell's 1984 tactics. Alan Dershowitz has successfully stopped a historian getting tenure at his university due to 'anti-Semitism', which is odd because the guy was Jewish. All he was doing was documenting Palestinian village history. This is not normal Israeli behaviour, it is the behaviour of a conquering elite and a chilling insight into what may come.

I am a university trained historian as well. There is another trend among Israeli historians which you seem to be glossing over here. Israeli Revisionists seek to pin the blame for all of the regions ills on Zionism and the Jewish state. Their work is widely available in Israel, as well as abroad. There is no government censorship of such work. You make it sound as though all Israeli's are on the same page when it comes to culpability and that the government actively squashes any kind of dissent. This is quite simply not the case at all. Israel is a democracy and popular dissent is accepted if not encouraged.

On the other hand, some school textbooks in countries such as Egypt and Syria deny that a Holocaust took place and present all of the Middle East's current troubles to be caused by the "evil, imperialistic, Zionist, Jews". This is what Arab school children are being taught from a very young age. That can't be very helpful.


I'm fairly pragmatic, I think Israel is there now but I still know that Palestine is there as well. If Israel wants to continue its Spartan/Helot relationship with the Palestinians it should encounter the same attitude that the Spartans got in the ancient world; resistance from democracies.

I totally agree with you, here. I think that armed opposition is a given considering Israel's afore-mentioned, apartheid like rule over the occupied territories. I firmly believe that Israel must stop and remove settlements on the West Bank and in the Gaza strip and that they must create an independent Palestinian state in order to ever come close to achieving a lasting piece. However, they will never do this under the threat of violence. Hamas, therefore, is its own worst enemy. Haven't any of those people ever heard of Gandhi?


As for Hamas, Fatah and the PLO.
Well, when the PLO came back and Rabin was murdered, everything fell to pieces. The West Bank and Gaza are captive communities (and some of the densest population areas on earth, which means bombing should never be allowed). the PLO was called 'The Libyans' by the Palestinians because there weren't considered to have Palestine interests at heart, and Fatah is just as corrupted by the Israeli commercial interests they are the conduit for.
That leaves Hamas, which is by any definition extremist. But, they are also the Gaza infrastructure. The men of Hamas are not 'fighters', they are also police officers, firemen, ambulance drivers, postmen and so on. When these men are targeted they are gutting Gaza of its infrastructure. When 'Hamas targets' are struck they are hitting police stations and disaster relief.
This not war. This is not insurgency. You know what it is.

I'm not sure that I do. I have already stated that I think the current campaign is disproportionate to the provocation- overkill, if you will. Are you implying that something more sinister is going on here?

Once again though, what would you expect the Israelis to do when rockets are being fired into their towns and cities? Hamas is not targetting anything but innocent civilians. Yet, they seem to get a pass for this deliberately murderous behavior from many in the "global community". I don't understand this. If they were only targetting Israeli military checkpoints, installations, patrols, convoys, etc.- much like Hezbollah did in southern Lebanon, forcing an Israeli withdrawal- then I think the Israelis would have far less of my sympathy right now. I'd probably come out and unilaterally condemn the current Israeli "aggression" in Gaza. However, the truth is, Hamas is a classic terrorist organization. Israel will not- cannot- negotiate with terrorists. To do so would only encourage radicals and extremists to strike at Israel. What would you want your government to do if you had to hide in the basement bunker every few hours? This is an easy question for people who've never needed a basement bunker to ignore.

So, as a pragmatist, what would you do if you were the Israeli PM (or DM)?

[Targan]

Chalkline and I are on the same page here.

[ChalkLine]

Shall we start a thread over at History/Current events? Kato prefers single threads. I think it's impossible myself, thread drift is thread drift after all :)

[Mohoender]

I make that answer my own.:)

Yes, but for the sake of brevity, I chose the umbrella term Palestinians (the majority being Muslim Arabs). Informed people, I am sure, know what we are talking about.


On this matter, I think that both you and chalkline are right. They are Palestinians but they are also a multi-cultural society. Nevertheless, if you had to think in term of multi-culturalism, no country would survive on earth so I stand with Raellus.


Only if it is spun. If you look at quotes from Arab leaders like Nasser, young Arafat, Assad, the Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, Ahmadinejad, etc. you will see that ethnic cleansing and genocide was/is their ultimate aim. They used this rhetoric publicly in order to generate support on the Arab "street" where these ideas are rather popular, to this day. Not to mention the undercurrent of Arab/Islamic radicalism that exists throughout the Middle East, even in "friendly" Arab states (see Sadat's assassination for pursuing peace with Israeli). I'm not sure how a people as persecuted as the Jews have been are supposed to take this sort of talk. As I said before, it is naive at best to assume that an Israeli military defeat would result in anything less than a second Holocaust.


Ethnic cleansing and genocide in my opinion remain rhetoric and I doubt that they truly believe in it. No doubt that the Jews had been persecuted but a small portion of radical Jews are using it as a flag to justify the inacceptable (much like Hamas and a portion of the Palestinians by the way). Sadat's assassination is a good exemple but you overlook the fact that Rabin was assassinated for pursuing peace with the Palestinians (strange how it sounds alike). an Israeli military defeat is unlikely and the anti-israel movement is slowly going down among Muslim countries (Turkey is currently the most important ally of Israel).


I am a university trained historian as well. There is another trend among Israeli historians which you seem to be glossing over here. Israeli Revisionists seek to pin the blame for all of the regions ills on Zionism and the Jewish state. Their work is widely available in Israel, as well as abroad. There is no government censorship of such work. You make it sound as though all Israeli's are on the same page when it comes to culpability and that the government actively squashes any kind of dissent. This is quite simply not the case at all. Israel is a democracy and popular dissent is accepted if not encouraged.


What you say is true and we often forgot that many Palestinians had been protected by Jews in 1948 and still are (that explains why you have several milllion Israeli's Arab). All sides are allowed to speak hopefully but saddly it hasn't change much, but again you are right. However, that country is not always that democratic and things are entirely different when it comes to divorcing women or to foreign Jews that are denied the right to leave the country because of the Rabinic court. These are a few among the abuses coming from the Rabinic courts (so much for democracy but i agree that our owns have their limits and might be increasingly fledgling).


On the other hand, some school textbooks in countries such as Egypt and Syria deny that a Holocaust took place and present all of the Middle East's current troubles to be caused by the "evil, imperialistic, Zionist, Jews". This is what Arab school children are being taught from a very young age. That can't be very helpful.


I have never seen these book but I'm sure you are right on that one. However, we are often doing similar things and we make history fit our particular agenda. When I finished my history master (Sorbonne 1998), the French government issued an order that forced all teachers to deny the fact that USSR had ever been a dictatorship. If you are American think back to Mc Carthy... Take any country and you'll find hundreds of similar exemples some more outrageous than others. After all the writing of history is made to justify the goals of present-time governments and it often has little to do with what history really is.


I totally agree with you, here. I think that armed opposition is a given considering Israel's afore-mentioned, apartheid like rule over the occupied territories. I firmly believe that Israel must stop and remove settlements on the West Bank and in the Gaza strip and that they must create an independent Palestinian state in order to ever come close to achieving a lasting piece. However, they will never do this under the threat of violence. Hamas, therefore, is its own worst enemy. Haven't any of those people ever heard of Gandhi?


I'm sure that they heard about Gandhi, especially about the fact that he was assassinated. Like Jaures, M.L.King, Sadat, Rabin... Strange how these people dedicated to peace are all getting killed independently of where they live. However, Hamas is certainly not its worse ennemy and each time Israel attacks it with such brutality it gains more support among the population. If I was in Gaza and if my 6 years old daughter had been blown up by an Israeli bomber I could certainly give my vote to the Hamas (That is equally true for people living in southern Israel). The strangest thing is that so many people continue to deny them that vote (again this is true in Israel as well).


I'm not sure that I do. I have already stated that I think the current campaign is disproportionate to the provocation- overkill, if you will. Are you implying that something more sinister is going on here?


Yes something more sinister is going on there. During the cease fire, it was not entirely respected by Hamas. However, Israel was supposed to level the blocus and that wasn't done either. None of the two sides comply to their obligations. It is doubtful that this will end by a military defeat for Israel and by a second hollocaust but a Genocide might become true for the Palestinian residing in Gaza (and I'm not saying living). I doubt that the attention given to this conflict will stop the bombing but it might avoid the Genocide. Else, it can end with a political defeat for the Israeli seeking victory in the coming election.


However, the truth is, Hamas is a classic terrorist organization.


Yes Hamas is a terrorist organization but not a classic one. It fuels on the death of its own people and might even provoke it.


So, as a pragmatist, what would you do if you were the Israeli PM (or DM)?

I would not launch an all out attack. I would try to comply to the various UN resolution and I would not try to turn them to my own advantage. I would move against the illegal colonies everywhere and dismantle them (eventually facing arm insurgency from a minority among my own people). I would increase the level of negociation with Fatah and declare Cisjordania an independent Palestinian state. I would make Jerusalem an international holly city again (may be making it a common capital for both states). I would reinforce fatah's position (using economical and technical support), helping the new Palestinian state in order to undermine Hamas' position. I also would continue to respond to rocket strikes but to a proportional level. Eventually, I'll be assassinated for attempting all these things.:mad: One last thing, my assassination will certainly be carried out by Hamas and extremist Jews who would join forces. After all, the ennemy of my ennemy...:D

However, with "would" one can do anything and so far those who have tried have been killed or are dead. Moreover, it's easy to say while typing behind a desk.

I agree with Moubarak, if the Israeli and the Palestinian ever get along, they will quickly control the entire Middle East.

[headquarters]

both sides are in the wrong here.there is no justification whatsoever on either side for the way things are being handled.There are children in the line of fire on both sides here,and I just cant understand that anyone who doesnt want both sides to stop immediately -regardless of percieved justification.

The holocaust,wiping Israel of the map,taking back land lost 60 years ago ,religion- none of it really is anything a reasonable person would get into with his counterpart if actually and genuinely trying to resolve a feud thats been going on .

The people who run things down there dont want an end to the war - the constant troubles are the reason that such "tie ins with the military" types can rule .(Look at the ranks of former Israeli leaders.and the path to leadership for the Arabs.Fighters most all of them .Dont think there ever was anyone as lowranked as Nethanyahu -a captain as far as I recall.)

As for the "threath to destroy Israel and the fear of a new holocaust " its all bogus in realpolitik.Israel has got enough nukes ,( Over 200 warheads as far as they know ),to burn the region to an ashpile and take out oilfields etc to make the world economy halt .It has also got an army that could take on any other in the middleeast and win .Save for the yanks possibly. The Arabs know it.However much you like to demonize the Iranians-they are not going to sacrifice all of Iran as nuke targets for Israeli bombs just to make a point against Israel if the Persians get nukes themselves. They only act up to gain support in the moslem world to strengthen their position , against the percieved threath from the west to their elite of theocrats and the hangers on .

So what you basically have here is a proxy war that the major powers that pull the strings could end effectively by pressuring their factions and moving forward with a plan for economic restructuring of the deprieved areas .

Someone here stated that Hamas is is "a classic terrorist organization" - well they were elected in a democratic election.They did provide the Gaza strip with a civil administration that wasnt rotten with corruption like the Fatah they replaced and they did present a full plan for administrating the Palistinians /civic society.They are an out in the open political party with members on all levels of the authorities.They also engage in terrorist attacks and guerilla warfare .

I read somewhere that since the 2001 agremeents ,Israel has been attacked 10300 times ,mainly missile strikes .In response the Israelis have attacked and the "score" is now 10-1 to Israel in terms of inflicting casualties.

A dirty war like so many others .It kind of angers me that its been allowed to go on for so long .


The world is what the world is .

I guess.

All in my humble opinion .

[Mohoender]

The people who run things down there dont want an end to the war - the constant troubles are the reason that such "tie ins with the military" types can rule .(Look at the ranks of former Israeli leaders.and the path to leadership for the Arabs.Fighters most all of them .Dont think there ever was anyone as lowranked as Nethanyahu -a captain as far as I recall.)


Ehud Olmert, first civilian to be elected since Golda Meir. More civilians have been president however.


Someone here stated that Hamas is is "a classic terrorist organization" - well they were elected in a democratic election.They did provide the Gaza strip with a civil administration that wasnt rotten with corruption like the Fatah they replaced and they did present a full plan for administrating the Palistinians /civic society.They are an out in the open political party with members on all levels of the authorities.They also engage in terrorist attacks and guerilla warfare .


True and actually, they were denied that election by all the western world and israel despite the fact that it had been recognized as highly legitimate by all international observers. Moreover, the level of participation would put all of our democracies to shame but after all this is not Democracy. Democracy can only come from people highly civilized like we are. Isn't it possible then that Hamas was pushed back to terrorism? Actually, I might have to review my position on one thing, i may have to help Hamas instead of Fatah.

[kcdusk]

I'm very late to this thread, and new to the longer issues in/around Israel. My question was going to be that Israel was hit by 8,000 (or was it 5,000?) missiles last year.

I agree 100% that Israeli's current response seems disproportionate to the provocation. 400 Palestinians dead (at least a quarter of them civilians) for 3 dead Israeli civilians tells the story here.

I dont know what the death toll was in Israel last year. Does it even matter? No wonder Isreal have had enough.

So my question was going to be what option does Israel have?

And i cant believe (OK, i can believe but i am still dissappointed) that the United Nations have asked Isreal to stop? Where were the UN all of last year?

I dont know whose right or wrong. But i find it hard to belive isreal has been asked to stop after having to put with with missiles everday.

If your looking for humour in the situation. The UN met for many hours today to discuss the latest developments (like this cropped up over night) and they couldnt even agree on the wording of a press release (yikes!).

[ChalkLine]

To get some perspective;

The traffic in Tel Aviv is about thirty times more deadly than Hamas rockets. Yes, the rockets have killed about twenty people over several years, a total of four deaths in the latest attacks.

The IDF, which I consider quite different to Israel, killed about three hundred and fifty people in the first three days. As is usual for so many deaths in a built up area, twenty per cent were minors.

Regardless of how provoked Israel is, it is quite clear that no one has any sort of control over the IDF. Factor in how provoked the people of Gaza are and you can see this is terribly one-sided.

For a very good explanation of the current events I recommend checking the RPG.net thread (http://forum.rpg.net/showthread.php?t=430706) on the matter.

[Mohoender]

I'm very late to this thread, and new to the longer issues in/around Israel. My question was going to be that Israel was hit by 8,000 (or was it 5,000?) missiles last year.



Kc when you give figures could you look at the right sources please. The number of missiles, however, has been none .

1500 rockets and 1600 mortar rounds had been the number with almost none during the cease fire period (I should have checked that myself before): 32 and 42 respectively during the cease fire. Therefore, I was wrong Hamas respected the cease fire. I'll have to check more carefully on Israel leveling up the blocus.

These figure must be true as they are coming out of the IDF itself. That is more than in 2006 and 2007, however. I'm not saying that it is fine of course but I would think that it matters.

I checked on the blocus (UN sources+press). According to UN the blocus was never leveled. Construction projects including these intiated by the UN itself had to be stopped (including schools and hospitals). Unemployment rose to about 50%. Electricity is cut about 5/hrs a day and might be cut definitely. I wander why one of the early attack by the IDF hit the UN buildings at Gaza. Right before the offensive, the UN and several organization appealed for an almost 500 million $ aid to Gaza. The reason was the deteriorating situation resulting from the continuing Blocus by Israel. By the way, a similar situation is appearing near the Barrier on the West bank and around the illegoal collonies.

So lets use the international and israelian figures to draw a small no-conclusion: Hamas respected its word, Israel didn't. Hamas kept saying it over and over we didn't listen. And of course we expect Hamas to quitefully wait and see the population drift into misery and die. Someone asked if something more sinister is going on, my answer was Yes. Now I'm scared by how sinister it might become. Of course, you can burn me (at least in words) but don't forget to burn all of the UN institutions, many of our own specialists (including several US citizens and at least one of the former US president) and the IDF spokesman. Not really looking at humour into this but it could have eased things a bit. So as we have to go to the full drama lets do it. Because of you all, I have looked a bit deeper into this, only scratching the surface of things (thanks) and my opinion is made. Make you own but if you have to do it, look at direct sources.

[kcdusk]

Kc when you give figures could you look at the right sources please. The number of missiles, however, has been none .



I was quoting the local tv station from tonight. Channel 7 for those people in australia.

[Mohoender]

I was quoting the local tv station from tonight. Channel 7 for those people in australia.

I guessed. I didn't think you were doing that baddly but I was sure that you were getting these figures from local or national press. Lately I haven't seen these guys doing their job correctly (except of course for the one getting killed or imprisoned everywhere, including the western world). Taking whatever news you can find, I would estimate something like 90% of the informations to be either false, incomplete or changed to make you believe what they want to sale you as the truth. Don't take me wrong, I don't think that the press is working for any kind of global plot, just that it works for its interest and money earning. Therefore, it sales us what we are the more ready to buy: an entirely demoniac Hamas to some and an Americano/Jewish plot to others (the people holding on the middle ground are not customers anyway). I knew before Iraq that Saddam had no mass destruction weapon left, very competent people screamed it to the world, but most of the world still bought that crap. Saddam is gone, nice, but I still find the level of casualties to be outrageous (40000 for US and somewhere between 200.000 and 1.5 Million for Iraq if you are including the ten years inerwar period: 1992-2003). In Israel, the number of rockets fired since the end of the cease fire increased quickly and that was unacceptable. However, without concern for the world I would have feared for a Palestinian Genocide, we can now hope that it should remain a limited massacre.

If I was just to give you an advice, take the press as a starting point (that is also true for wikipedia...) and go further as many informations are available on the net. Nevertheless, what I gave is also partially incomplete and a broader range of interpretation can be made out of it (the figures may not be entirely accurate as I had no time to cross reference them). As I said, I only scratched the surface of things and my second opinion might be entirely wrong (In fact, I'm sure it is at least partially wrong). I still agree with the idea that both side bear part of the guilt but I'm convinced that we could do just a little more if we were properly informed. As I said, I remain somewhat idealistic and I remain convinced that information is the key. Before, you could find it in Cafés and Bars, now internet is helping on that matter.

[Targan]

So my question was going to be what option does Israel have?
How about not killing entire families just to kill one Hamas personality? I know, I know, its just crazy ole Targan talking crazy again...

[Mohoender]

How about not killing entire families just to kill one Hamas personality? I know, I know, its just crazy ole Targan talking crazy again...

And I thought I was an idealist :D

[Grimace]

Guys, let's remember what kato suggested about not pissing in our own "bed" here. Some people seem to be getting rather opinionated about things, and may be saying some things that they don't necessarily intend to sound the way they do.

A lot of people have strong opinions about this conflict, and about the events revolving around the whole situation, and if people continue to spout out things that can inflame tempers, we're likely going to have our own little shouting match on this board again.

So let's take a break from Israel and the Palestinians, otherwise when kato gets back he's going to have to be stomping out fires and possibly banning people for things they've said. I don't think any of us really want that, do we?

[Mohoender]

I agree Grim but so far I found all this exchange to be quite respectful. No one has insulted anyone (or so I feel). Sorry if its the case. I might be wrong but the general consensus seem to be "lets look at things" and "the situation is dramatic from whatever side you take it".

I agree that things have to retain some sense of measures but if we all had the same point of view, there would be no point of having a forum at all. We might not all have the same views on things (game and else) but I personally find all opinion to be valuable. I usually get more from people with different points of view as they force me to go deeper into things. At times, I find out that I might be right, at other time I find that they are, but at least I'm not stuck with static ready made opinions (built up from one sided press views).:)

[Haven]

Preface: Opinion... also i could argue the same thing for the Hamas side.

This is meant with respect and with no malice towards anyone.


To get some perspective;
The traffic in Tel Aviv is about thirty times more deadly than Hamas rockets. Yes, the rockets have killed about twenty people over several years, a total of four deaths in the latest attacks.


Regardless of effectiveness they are attacks and they are continuing, constant attacks.

Should Israel just wait until Hamas gets better rockets before responding?

“We’ll ignore it until they really do something bad and kill more people,” is not good policy for a nation under constant attack.

Kinda sounds like the WTC to me.


The IDF, which I consider quite different to Israel, killed about three hundred and fifty people in the first three days. As is usual for so many deaths in a built up area, twenty per cent were minors.


So basically this all boils down to effectiveness of military action? It shouldn’t.

IDF is better at killing than Hamas; Plain and simple.

But they are both attacking each other so I don’t see how you can blame Israel more than Hamas.

Equal parties in guilt.


Regardless of how provoked Israel is, it is quite clear that no one has any sort of control over the IDF. Factor in how provoked the people of Gaza are and you can see this is terribly one-sided.


It is one-sided.

It has BEEN one-sided.

So much so that like the enemies of the US, they don’t even try conventional attacks anymore.

This is a war in the media and world opinion and any civilians are currently caught in the cross-fire and are being used as ammunition.

Israel is pretty much in a no win situation.
- It defends itself against rocket attacks with wide scale military action it is branded by the world as a bully
- It defends itself against rocket attacks with a ‘measured response’ and Israelis say they aren’t doing enough and that leadership doesn’t get elected next time around. Also they are still a bully in world opinion just because they use a helicopter against a militiaman. “So unfair!”
- Israel doesn’t do anything. Israeli’s die and property is damaged. The attackers win a political and morale victory and the current Israeli leadership isn’t elected next time around.
- Israel gives up ‘conquered’ territory. Insurgents move up into ‘surrendered territory’ which is what it will be called by both sides, and continues attacks. Israeli’s die and property is damaged. The attackers win a political and morale victory and the current Israeli leadership isn’t elected next time around, and if they want the territory back it must be ‘re-conquered’ and the UN will scream bloody murder again.

[Raellus]

Israel is pretty much in a no win situation.
- It defends itself against rocket attacks with wide scale military action it is branded by the world as a bully
- It defends itself against rocket attacks with a ‘measured response’ and Israelis say they aren’t doing enough and that leadership doesn’t get elected next time around. Also they are still a bully in world opinion just because they use a helicopter against a militiaman. “So unfair!”
- Israel doesn’t do anything. Israeli’s die and property is damaged. The attackers win a political and morale victory and the current Israeli leadership isn’t elected next time around.
- Israel gives up ‘conquered’ territory. Insurgents move up into ‘surrendered territory’ which is what it will be called by both sides, and continues attacks. Israeli’s die and property is damaged. The attackers win a political and morale victory and the current Israeli leadership isn’t elected next time around, and if they want the territory back it must be ‘re-conquered’ and the UN will scream bloody murder again.

A great summary of Israel's current quandary, Haven. I couldn't have put it any better myself.

No wonder no one's posted a solution to the HAMAS rocket attack problem. It's easier, I guess, just to say that it's not a problem...:rolleyes:

[ChalkLine]

Actually, the answer to the problem has been posted several times;

- Stop victimising the Palestinians, give them liveable land, stop killing their police officers, stop blockading thier movement, stop cutting off their power, stop cutting off their water, etc etc.

The cause of the attacks is hatred. You can't get a military solution to hatred.

The IRA actually launched rockets, but you never saw the RAF bombing Belfast.

It has been posted over and over that the cause of all this is the treatment of the Palestinians, they have nothing to live for.

[Raellus]

Actually, the answer to the problem has been posted several times;

- Stop victimising the Palestinians, give them liveable land, stop killing their police officers, stop blockading thier movement, stop cutting off their power, stop cutting off their water, etc etc.


And then Hamas stops launching indescriminant rocket attacks against Israel?

So if militant members of some oppressed minority segregated into "reservations" in your country started launching rockets into your town or city (or a town or city where your family and/or lives) you would respond by demanding that your government immediately give them what they want and not respond militarily?

Once again, I agree with you on the long term solution but I find your support for Hamas baffling. If I was a Palestinian, I imagine I would be cursing and shaking my fist at the Israelis right now too. But, I think that I would also be cursing and shaking my fist at Hamas for provoking the Israelis and trying to court civilian casualties by hiding behind their own people.

"Hey, guys in ski masks! Stop launching those rockets at Israel, will you? It doesn't seem to be doing any of us any good at all!"

Hamas came to power due to its militant (some would say extremist) stand against Israel. Yes, they have popular support. Does that make their actions justifiable? Hamas knows that they stand to lose political power if peace ever comes to the region and that's why they will not allow it to happen. I suspect that's the main reason why Hamas decided not to renew the original cease-fire and instead, immediately renewed its indiscriminant rocket attacks against Israel. I understand why some Palestinians support violent means of protest but why educated third party observers try to defend blatant terrorist acts is beyond me.

It is troubling that people don't seem to have much of a problem with Israeli civilians getting blown up (after all, it's their fault; it's only a few of them, etc...) but are so incensed at Palestinian civilian casualties.

[ChalkLine]

Actually, I categorically do not support Hamas. I just don't have the somewhat stereotypical view that is handed out by the mass media (and I'm not inferring you do). I understand why Hamas is popular, and it distresses me that the side with the most to gain; Israel, creates (don't forget Hamas was originally funded by Israel to undermine Fatah) and then bolsters through their actions groups like this. Israel is capable of being proactive, the Palestinians as a people are not. Because of the conditions imposed on them they are almost entirely reactive.As I said, Hamas is a symptom, not an illness.

Like Hezbollah, Hamas is a group that is not just a resistance organisation. It is also a social groupment, a charity, a service and utility provider and a religious group. To state, as is often said in the commercial media, 'Hamas hides behind civilians' is purposefully wrong and purposefully misleading. Hamas is civilian, the majority of its fighters are ex-PA security forces, but also have a primarily civilian function. They don't sit around all day polishing their AKs. This intertwining of the military, paramilitary and non-military is well understood as a side-effect of the collapsed condition of society on the West Bank and Gaza, but a simplistic view is expounded to make them easy black-and-white foes.

A group such as Hamas is best destroyed by removing its reason for being. I endorse any method of undermining Hamas by bettering the lives of Palestinians, and I suggest that this would automatically better the lives of their Israeli neighbours as more working men would be supporting families and not throwing their lives away against the IDF or the civilians they shield.

Realistically, it was Israel just as much or arguably more who acted in bad faith. Hamas could not renew the cease-fire with the blockade killing the people by degrees, it was against their reason for being. If Israel had relaxed the blockade and allowed humanitarian aid back into Gaza, allowed food, allowed power and allowed drinking water, only then could Hamas feel that both sides were dealing in good faith. Hamas is a very reactive organisation, it responds strongly, simply and predictably. I don't for a second believe that no one in Israel's ruling elite didn't think the rockets would start up again if they kept up the horrible blockade.

This is where I put the blame. The 'tough on Hamas' crowd are being macho for the upcoming election, and they know that if they keep throttling Gaza they can count on Hamas to start shooting off their stupid Quassams in a show of defiance, and have a cassus belli to be hardcore.

[Targan]

I don't support Hamas either. Quite the opposite. They are a bunch of murderous terrorists thugs and religious fanatics and I don't like either terrorists or religious fanatics of any persuasion. Just because I oppose the Israeli military killing large numbers of innocent civilians doesn't mean I support Hamas.

[headquarters]

Israel is in a though spot -Palistinians are living in hell.

My humble opinion is that rather than give the Palistinians something to fight and die for ( i.e a cause/ against the brutal oppression ) the powers that be ( we all know who is on that list ) should give them something to live for -a prosperous and viable society and nation state.

In a somewhat similar case :I remember my reaction when I read the figures for the cost of the campaign against Jugo forces in Kosovo and Serbia and the funding allocated for rebuilding and aid .The war had gotten more than 100 times the cash the rebuilding had 3 years later.How is that for strategy ..

The US knew what to do after 45 - helping Europe rebuilding their economies.Thats what is gotta happen with the next wars to -otherwise there is no end .

Yeah.

I know it is a bit hopeful ,but the other way has been tried for decades now and I believe that the military operations costs way more than reconstruction will -especially in said area .


Towards the end - I go with Grimace who said : keep it civil. Its not bad now , but you know - middle east is a topic that easily sparks of into something bad .

[Mohoender]

I have seen that this came on the spot but I agree with Chalkline and Targan, no one is supporting Hamas around here.

I have said that we avoided a genocide and I had good reason to say that even as it was slightly overstated. Just look at the figures given in the press (I know they are unreliable but they are what we have know). During the first three days of the offensive (as the world was still looking away) almost 400 Palestinians (mostly civilians) had been killed and 1300 had been wounded. Today (after 6 more days of fighting), 100 more Palestinians (mostly militia) had been killed and about 400 more wounded (strangely I bet that they are mostly militia as well). So, by the way, Targan talking about it has some purpose and it changes things as it forces leaders to get some sense of measure. I don't know what the true translation of it is in English but in French we use to say that "the worse is when people of good remain silent". I 'm not saying that the israelis would approve a genocide but they could have comit one by simply going too far, porbably trying to avoid their own casualties: no israeli soldiers had been hit during the first three days, 1 has been killed and 30 wounded since the ground attack started.

Raellus you asked if the Israeli government should have remained idle. Of course, the answer is NO. However, someone compare that to the situation in Northern Ireland and that might be a very good comparison indeed. Here in France, the Jewish representative council (not the Jews themselves) keep saying that no country would have endured what Israel did endure for 8 years without moving. I realize that it is false as England endured it for almost 50 years (including the bloody sunday of 1972). The British (no matter how brutal some might have been) never responded by an all out offensive on civilians. Else, when the second intifada started in 2000 (I think) many Jews who had survived the Nazis and the camps demonstrated in the streets. They were not demonstrating in support of Israel but with Palestinians in support of the Palestinian population (the POPULATION, not the Fatah or the Hamas). They were given very little audience but one of them compared what was happening in Israel to what the Nazi did to the jews during WWII (not talking of the holocaust of course but thinking of privation, yellow stars...). I don't think that anyone can qualify survivors of the Shoah to be supportive of terrorism.

Are there some other ways. Obviously YES and that is true even with terrorism around. Rabin proved it until he was killed (by a Jew). The task was far from over but things were under way and terrorism (if still very active) was more fledgeling than it is now. Of course, Hamas is a terrorist movements but we are talking to terrorist all the time and that doesn't always matter that much. In that case it sounds more and more as a false excuse used by both side: "we are not talking to Palestinians they are terrorists, we are not talking to Israeli's they are bombing us and assassinating our leaders, we are not talking to Palestinians they are throwing rockets, we are ending the cease fire the Israelis are not leveling the blocus...", and in the meantime kids, women, and men from both sides are killed almost everyday with no future to look at.

Again, as I said, it's easy to say from behind a computer desk. I also agree with Grim,we had said it all and it's time to go away from that subject. Let's now hope that it will end soon and that, at some point, a few among the Israelis and Palestinians will be brave enough to end this needless bloodshed.

[Snake Eyes]

Part of me wishes they'd all hurry it up over there and just go ahead and drag us full on into WWIII so we can get on with the whole anti-christ/rapture "end of days" thing. I've grown weary of waiting for that other shoe to drop. You know - just to be contrary.

[Haven]

Since no one has really laid out a plan for Peace.

I like this article.

Course it doesn't really deal with the here and now....

http://www.newsweek.com/id/177840

[Snake Eyes]

I kind of liked Jack Ryan's plan as enumerated in Tom Clancy's The Sum of All Fears - turn policing of the Holy Land over the the Swiss Guard and park an armored cav regiment, an air wing, and a carrier battle group there to give them some teeth. Naive, but tidy.

[headquarters]

I know its dreadful -all of it .

All those people down there held hostage and prisoners top leaders and policies that are selfserving and wicked.I got kids - it really tears me up to see the pictures.

So here

http://www.hamas.no/hamas/index.php

a Norwegian company that deal in farming equipment -nothing to do with the midleeast WHATSOEVER -but just the name ...

[Mohoender]

Increasing problem with Gas coming from Russia. We all know that Russia cut the gas to Ukraine on January 2. Today, the quantity of gas delivered to the EU has dropped also. It is cut to Southern Europe and Turkey. Poland recieved only 15% of it. France received only 30%...

So far it is unclear who does what between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine claims that Russia reduced its deliveries to Europe. Russia claims that Ukraine cut three out of the four gazoduc on its soil.

As Europe is currently experiencing a cold period that might quickly become a true problem. Anyway, it's good for our imagination.:D

[headquarters]

Increasing problem with Gas coming from Russia. We all know that Russia cut the gas to Ukraine on January 2. Today, the quantity of gas delivered to the EU has dropped also. It is cut to Southern Europe and Turkey. Poland recieved only 15% of it. France received only 30%...

So far it is unclear who does what between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine claims that Russia reduced its deliveries to Europe. Russia claims that Ukraine cut three out of the four gazoduc on its soil.

As Europe is currently experiencing a cold period that might quickly become a true problem. Anyway, it's good for our imagination.:D

Moscow might be having a cashflow problem , and this i sa way of securing the necessary loans or extensions of payment or whatever...

It could also be a continuation of the good old "bash the Ukranians and give Nato the finger while doing it -cause we can just turn of th ef***ing gas and then what are you going to do???" -

realpolitik in other words.

I predict Sarkozy will be on television in less than a week if th ecold continues and state that the overtures from NATO /OTAN to Ukraine were premature and part of the failed policies of the Bush administration ..

.." bien sur..we `ave no-thing to do over there -ce la playground les Ruskis.."

Who could blame him .

Not us -we have all the gas we need ,thats why the Russians are flying all sorts of sorties along our borders and simulating nuclear missile attacks with old bombers against our cities-breaking of JUST before the incursion gets grave enough that our leaders actually would have to try an put something behind ourt lame and feeble protests to Moscow.

It is clear that the US and Russia arnt in the same league -but Russia is strong enough now ,that messing with them in any way is political madness-and Washington knows it .

NATO will not expand eastwards for the next couple of decades imho.

h for humble as always.

[Mohoender]

I predict Sarkozy will be on television in less than a week if th ecold continues and state that the overtures from NATO /OTAN to Ukraine were premature and part of the failed policies of the Bush administration ..



I agree with everything you say but I was not thinking of real life. About Sarko don't worry about him you already won your bet two or three time. Sarkozete is on TV about every week, he is our national muppet right now (of course everyone understood that I'm not very supportive of him:D ).

My problem is that he is moving a lot but I still don't have the feeling that he is really doing anything new or anything at all. Oops, I'm wrong he betrayed the constitution at least once and escaped his responsibilties as leader of the state at least once also. I msu give him credit for two things so: he made me read our constitution and made me care about what is going on in Politics. I get the funny feeling that I'm not the only one in that case and ,right now, what worries me the most is the fact that the French are not complaining anymore.

Currently he is gesticulating in the Middle East so he can argue that he is doing something. First, he better hurry, within twelve days he won't be the most interesting "people" on TV anymore. I just have a question, then. Where was he between June and December? He had access to all the reports from the UN (you know the one that are available to all) plus a few other I guess. What is funny is that he became president of EU almost right when the truce between Hamas and Israel came into effect. Saddly he had not care about it at all. Right, he had already too much at hand with Tibet, playing Chinese Poker and going to the Olympics (Plus, later, Russia and the financial crisis). Still, he could have cared a little in July but I guess that these peoples wouldn't have fit well on TV (after all, they were not dying under bombs and rockets, depending on what side you are talking of, and he was simply in a position to attempt something to avoid the current situation, why would he have done anything then?).

Please, to all Americans, couldn't you hurry things a bit (change that transition period dating back to the civil war may be?). I'm not Obamaniak but at least it will distract the world a bit and I'll be happy to see a new face on TV. After all, there is a 50/50 chance that he may be good, and at least he will be new.:) Moreover, he is good looking and doesn't look like a mix between Frankenstein and an Hungarian frog.:D

[Marc]

Ah Mohoender!
Your Sarkozete would be an excellent NPC... I will try to think about his statistics later...:D

[Mohoender]

Ah Mohoender!
Your Sarkozete would be an excellent NPC... I will try to think about his statistics later...:D

LOOOL:p

[headquarters]

politics history thread spilled over into this one ..

Well at least maybe what I said could be used to make a case for a scenario where the "little games" like gas ,ukraine,georgia and increasing Russian ruthlessness in foreign politics sparks of a situation where things "get out of hand " and the world gets dragged into another big war .

[pmulcahy11b]

Well, I don't support Sarkozy -- but I'll take Carla Bruni...:p

As for not supporting the Constitution, Bush has everyone beat (except maybe Dick Cheney). Bush probably has rolls of toilet paper in the White House residence printed with the Constitution.

[Mohoender]

Well, I don't support Sarkozy -- but I'll take Carla Bruni...:p

As for not supporting the Constitution, Bush has everyone beat (except maybe Dick Cheney). Bush probably has rolls of toilet paper in the White House residence printed with the Constitution.

Ok for Carla Bruni but you'll need to be very very rich. Her main advantage is that you can hear distant sounds when she is singing. Plus you'll have to throw your kids out if you have some (She is exactly what you called a slut when you were at school). To her credit she has never hided that and it is not a problem in France. It might be for our president so. Moreover, if Sarko's ever visit US and If I was Barack's wife, I'll be checking hard on my husband.

I agree with you on Bush but it seems to me that you fix it somehow (better late than never). Sarko ruling over my country I don't find that to be anything lighter.

Oops, now, I agree we are going into Politics but, after all, with Sarko I can't help it. Moreover, the gas issue with Russia is an interesting one. The EU presidency made a declaration when it seem to be ordering Russia to deliver gas (press released). I don't know to what extend this is true but as Russia is still the owner of its gas, I can imagine plenty of diplomatic possibilities out of this.:rolleyes:

[Marc]

About the gas conflict between Rússia and Ukraïna, both countries take profit from the lowering in the gas supply to the rest of Europe. Rússia is remembering to Europe our dependence an important energy source suplied for them. A good probe to check the european reaction. And Ukraïna is pressuring the rest of Europe, blaming the russians as the unique cause of the problem and insinuating that any other european country could have the same problem in the future. Wich is essentially true.

Anyway it's strange to realize how quickly are forgotten by Western Europe any strategic considerations after a short period without tension with Russia

[Graebarde]

Please, to all Americans, couldn't you hurry things a bit (change that transition period dating back to the civil war may be?). I'm not Obamaniak but at least it will distract the world a bit and I'll be happy to see a new face on TV. After all, there is a 50/50 chance that he may be good, and at least he will be new.:) Moreover, he is good looking and doesn't look like a mix between Frankenstein and an Hungarian frog.:D

Careful what you wish for there. 50/50? I make it more like 10/90. The unkown factor.

Grae
end of political discussion

[Mohoender]

I maintain my 50/50 for several reasons.

First, I don't know that much about him (except for about 1 ton of articles from various newspapers and as much film from TV).
Second, I distrust whatever generate some kind of frenzy (especially in France where it's dum and pointless).
Third, he is not my president, he is yours (That explains why the Obamania from the French is dum and pointless).
Fourth, what may be good for US is not always good for people outside US (and that's fine like this).
Fifth, I expect US citizens to have chosen a president they trust to be good for them. You have enough problems on your own right now and I don't think you are there to solve the world's problems.
Sixth and last, I'm not living in US anymore, I'm not voting there and I don't think that he will oppose some of the security devices that are entering service.

By devices, I'm thinking of the new type of scanner (x-ray scanner, I think it is called). From what I have seen I'll be a pain if I ever get to an airport. No way, a man will look at my wife through that thing. Moreover, if either a man or even a woman dare looking at my kids through this I might quickly get violent and I'm not sure that any human or divine law can stop me (and that is an understatement as that thing my cause the twilight war to come true:D ).

Therefore my 50/50 was in no way a political discussion.

[jester]

Alot of what I have heard with debates is he is a socialist, alot of his ideas are even marxist. I had a course of e-debates on a Discussion forum with a soon to be Lt about how great he was and how he can walk on water.

Love his ideas but in the end they are so much talk with no way to be implimented. Unless the state controls those industries to include the labor of specialists which would never fly, and from what I am seeing, he is rounding up some of the usual suspects for his yes men, nothing like using the same old people and ideas to bring change.

So, in the end, we all shall have hope and change, or more like, we will be

HOPING FOR CHANGE left in our pockets.

[ChalkLine]

Alot of what I have heard with debates is he is a socialist, alot of his ideas are even marxist. I had a course of e-debates on a Discussion forum with a soon to be Lt about how great he was and how he can walk on water.

Love his ideas but in the end they are so much talk with no way to be implimented. Unless the state controls those industries to include the labor of specialists which would never fly, and from what I am seeing, he is rounding up some of the usual suspects for his yes men, nothing like using the same old people and ideas to bring change.

So, in the end, we all shall have hope and change, or more like, we will be

HOPING FOR CHANGE left in our pockets.

Guys, I'm a Socialist. Many of my friends are Marxists.

He's so much a capitalist it's not funny, don't even go there.

Honestly, they're using 'Socialist' and 'Marxist' as scare-words. In Oz he'd be considered 'too right-wing'.

Anyway, what's President-elect Obama got to do with WW3?

[Targan]

Gee I'm glad that you post here Chalkline. Its nice to have someone writing things very much like what I think, but writing them better than I could.

I'm a socialist too. I think it is really important for our American friends to realise that just because someone is a socialist doesn't mean they are not a patriot or are in some way evil or dangerous. And just because I'm left-leaning doesn't mean I'm anti military or anti-war. If anything I'm pro-military and I'm quite happy to support wars that are started for good reasons. I was/am against the war in Iraq but I wholeheartedly support the war in Afghanistan.

[LAW0306]

Well I just love all the NON-T2K talk here. Please can we keep the bashing of my Commander and Chief down to a min . I dont bash yours so dont bash mine. also his failed policys? I dont see any from my point of view. and I support all of our wars! I love them! The only time I'm at peace is after I smoke some godless ass from some crap hole country.(Its my way to keep global warming down and keep the world clean) I leave this spring so i will be at peace again.


So please lets keep this civil get back to twilight and stay friends.

[kato13]

I have to say I agree with LAW.

A few points.

A word can mean meany things depending on culture and context. I am sure "spicy" means different things in Ireland compared to India. I am pretty sure "socialist" could also been seen the same way.

When discussion politics I would really rather opinions be kept to a minimum. Even facts can be a gray area as political spin masters can come up with facts to support almost any position.

When discussing any political figure people should remember that between 25-75% of the readers on this board may support the policies of that figure. We are a very varied group in terms of backgrounds and political affiliations, please try to keep verbal assaults against anyone (even political figures) to a minimum.

This thread has not spun out of control yet and I am proud of you guys for that but we are getting dangerously close. Remember guys this is a T2k board.



Edit;

Paul I appreciate you bringing Carla Bruni into this thread.

I am now going to try to shamelessly derail this thread by getting us all to agree she has wonderful legs.

http://z.hubpages.com/u/169065_f520.jpg

[Targan]

Yum. Could someone let her know that she is welcome to stay at my place if she ever visits Australia. I have a couple of things I'd like to show her.

[Snake Eyes]

Anyway, what's President-elect Obama got to do with WW3?

Well, nothing really. Unless he actually does bear the mark of The Beast - in which case we are probably in for some very nasty weather.

:D

[Mohoender]

I have to say I agree with LAW.


Paul I appreciate you bringing Carla Bruni into this thread.

I am now going to try to shamelessly derail this thread by getting us all to agree she has wonderful legs.



Kato I'm not going to help you on that one :D . My wife legs are ten times more beautiful, also they are only for me to see.;)

Carla is definitely too skiny and lack whatever is needed for a woman, in my opinion of course. She looks somewhat like a tank with no ammo and empty gas tank (See we are getting back to T2K:p ). So guys if you want to take her at home be my guest, I'll be sleeping in the bathroom. Make her sing so I'll enjoy the silence:D . Anyway, if you really intend to do so, you better have a life style or social situation similar to that of those guys (those being the official ones only):

Mike Jagger
Eric Clapton
Jean-Jacques Goldman
Arno Klarsfeld
Laurent Fabius
Vincent Perez
Enthoven (Raphaël) father and, then, son (she jumped from one to the other with no consideration for the son's wife of course).
Louis Bertignac,
……
Nicolas Sarkozy

Last attempt to get back to the thread subject:o : does any of you know what is going on in India/Pakistan? The situation seems to ease a bit but things seems to be going on in Tribal region.

[kato13]

Kato I'm not going to help you on that one :D . My wife legs are ten times more beautiful, also they are only for me to see.;)


You are a very lucky man then.

As your thoughts have proved there is no single opinion in which everyone on this board is going to agree. On something subjective there is really no reason to expect it or to be bothered by that fact.

[Targan]

Anyway, if you really intend to do so, you better have a life style or social situation similar to that of those guys...
I'm quite confident that the only reason Carla Bruni hasn't slept with me is that she hasn't met me yet :cool:

[headquarters]

I agree - now thats a first "lady"

Who cares if she is a powerhungry .... ( insert bad word for woman who sleeps with powerful men to get what she wants ...ahhhrgh..if I only had alittle more power..) .. well,at least she is honest about it . And in that way you have to admit she fits in rather well with her new hubby and his circle.


AS FOR T2K today thread :

did we use to discuss as edgy on the last forum ? I dont remember

but FOR ONCE I actually have to agree with ..LAW ?? :confused:

The nonT2k talk sort of piles up.Yeah , I now I am part of it and take sides too.

Please lets get of the politics -clearly the "timeline" discussions always spark some exchanges that are not game-constructive.

I have read somewhere that fringe groups always split up .People - I think it is safe to say we are a fringe group - to put it in T2K terms -maybe the last group of active players and T2K-diehards ON THE PLANET!!

[kato13]

I have read somewhere that fringe groups always split up .People - I think it is safe to say we are a fringe group - to put it in T2K terms -maybe the last group of active players and T2K-diehards ON THE PLANET!!

I have to say, I know for a fact that unpleasantness drives people away. I try to allow open and honest discussions as censorship is a slippery slope, but of course there will always be limits.This thread has teetered on the edge of being more useful than being disruptive so I have not put any clamps on yet.

I know many people are tempted to use this forum to vent frustrations or anger (which may have nothing to do with this board), but if you do that whatever you say is likely to piss someone else off. If it happens too much we WILL lose valuable input, that is an undeniable truth.

Just another bit for everyone to digest.

[Marc]

People - I think it is safe to say we are a fringe group - to put it in T2K terms -maybe the last group of active players and T2K-diehards ON THE PLANET!!

Well, I must recognize that I feel myself invested with the holy mission to evangelize all the poor souls that remain unaware about the existence of the roleplaying way of life. All those lost lambs that are still waiting in the darkness without knowing such important theological concepts like initiative step, outstanding success, to hit roll... I teach all of them that there's a roleplaying path suitable for everyone, no matter the number of sides of the dice (mmmm...sorry, the Omnipresent Multiform Dice) they would be rolling. And following this evangelization task, one of my groups (that I'm proud to say it has been growing in numbers these last months:cool: ) is quite young (20-24 years) and is about to play its third T2K adventure next week. So, please, try to spread the word!!! For the moment I will try to avoid to tell them that, in the cold Norwegian lands, a group of T2K players try to bomb their enemies with latrines. After all they are only tender beginners. ;)

[headquarters]

Well, I must recognize that I feel myself invested with the holy mission to evangelize all the poor souls that remain unaware about the existence of the roleplaying way of life. All those lost lambs that are still waiting in the darkness without knowing such important theological concepts like initiative step, outstanding success, to hit roll... I teach all of them that there's a roleplaying path suitable for everyone, no matter the number of sides of the dice (mmmm...sorry, the Omnipresent Multiform Dice) they would be rolling. And following this evangelization task, one of my groups (that I'm proud to say it has been growing in numbers these last months:cool: ) is quite young (20-24 years) and is about to play its third T2K adventure next week. So, please, try to spread the word!!! For the moment I will try to avoid to tell them that, in the cold Norwegian lands, a group of T2K players try to bomb their enemies with latrines. After all they are only tender beginners. ;)
I guess to you people on the continent us Scandinavians have always been unwashed,heathen barbarians - a view supported by the horde sof our people that lay panting sunburned red and drunk as F**k on the beaches of the mediterranean -the tourists.

The shitbombing is not a new idea though - many siege engineers have used cadavers and manure in their techniques to breach a fortification in the course of history .

As a GM I have learned never to say NO - just give penalties .

But you know what they say - play rpgs using regular tactics for years and nobody says nothing -but use homemade biological latrine weapons on a large scale ONCE...the talk never ends..

Congrats on recruiting a gaming group and doing important missionary work .

We need more dedicated men like you .

[General Pain]

I guess to you people on the continent us Scandinavians have always been unwashed,heathen barbarians - a view supported by the horde sof our people that lay panting sunburned red and drunk as F**k on the beaches of the mediterranean -the tourists.

The shitbombing is not a new idea though - many siege engineers have used cadavers and manure in their techniques to breach a fortification in the course of history .

As a GM I have learned never to say NO - just give penalties .

But you know what they say - play rpgs using regular tactics for years and nobody says nothing -but use homemade biological latrine weapons on a large scale ONCE...the talk never ends..

Congrats on recruiting a gaming group and doing important missionary work .

We need more dedicated men like you .

Strange I never got any comments when I sendt political enemies and POWs in the Asbestos mines....maybe because I never had any use for the asbestos they made haha

[headquarters]

Strange I never got any comments when I sendt political enemies and POWs in the Asbestos mines....maybe because I never had any use for the asbestos they made haha
well the NPCs started a coup that toppled your regime as soon as they saw it was weakend enough ..thats a statement I guess..

[Graebarde]

Anyway, what's President-elect Obama got to do with WW3?

Chalk, this thread IS T2K Today. Hopefully BO will have NOTHING to do with a third world war, but from a Yank, and an INDEPENDENT rather than any party follower, there's is SOMETHING about him that rubs me wrong. But then he's like all politicians... you know they're lying because their lips are moving.

Now how about them Russian's? Or Chineese? Perhaps it's the NK or pirates of Africa? I'm reading a very well written fiction by a amature author on WW3. Stolen nukes and terrorism in the US, with the aftermath. OF course it might not be WW3 but it is post-apoc.

Grae

[ChalkLine]

To bounce of what Grae just said, China is looking really, really dodgy and it doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

China has fuelled its ridiculous growth by its totalitarian economy restricting aspects of free markets, but in a bad way. I'm all for regulation, but the Chinese really, really got it arse-about.

In essence, foreign currency is contraband in China. It has to be turned into a central bureau and exchanged for vouchers, which massively constricts the system but does make some of the elites very, very wealthy. Because such huge amounts of cash clog one area, the Chinese simply invest these funds in other economies that they want access to at very poor returns. It's been estimated that the one way flow of money from China has been as if everyone in the west got a $4000US gift from the Chinese government in living standards for the last ten years.

Now, this isn't how even rabid democratic socialists such as myself see investment being used. Because the money comes in normally and then shoots out in one direction it means that someone has to lose out. In this case it has been the Chinese lower class and thier social environment. The Chinese live in filthy, smoggy cities with deteriorating infrastructure and a huge gulf between the classes. A new generation of Chinese are growing up who look at what they make for export and then compare it with what they have domestically. And they don't like what they see.

It should be noted; you don't get revolutions when you hit rock bottom, everyone is too flat out simply surviving. You get revolutions after a period of prosperity followed by a downturn so the people can make comparisons. Someone has to suffer from the recent slowing of the Chinese economy, and it won't be the people who are benefiting from the massive recent growth who get shafted first, it will be those lower down in the food chain.

What isn't widely known about China is that there's a lot of tension between the seaboard areas that are wealthy and the rural interior which is not. There's been a drift of people from the interior into the the seaboard areas for work, and they're going to be sent home as they get laid off and returned to even worse poverty.

This is rife T2K country. China has a huge military and the commands could easily splinter apart, as they did in the 1920s during The Warlord Era. The rural areas against the coastal industrial make for a good mix, but it's a feature of the warfare that divisional commanders 'on the same side' don't really cooperate. They manoeuvre against the enemy, but also politically against their own side to see if the can climb command ladders.

Players not wishing to play Chinese PCs would be either military or civilians in the border areas. Wild card Chinese divisions could tip North Korea over the edge while other Chinese divisions try and stop it happening and cooperate with international forces.

[headquarters]

To bounce of what Grae just said, China is looking really, really dodgy and it doesn't seem to be getting much attention.

China has fuelled its ridiculous growth by its totalitarian economy restricting aspects of free markets, but in a bad way. I'm all for regulation, but the Chinese really, really got it arse-about.

In essence, foreign currency is contraband in China. It has to be turned into a central bureau and exchanged for vouchers, which massively constricts the system but does make some of the elites very, very wealthy. Because such huge amounts of cash clog one area, the Chinese simply invest these funds in other economies that they want access to at very poor returns. It's been estimated that the one way flow of money from China has been as if everyone in the west got a $4000US gift from the Chinese government in living standards for the last ten years.

Now, this isn't how even rabid democratic socialists such as myself see investment being used. Because the money comes in normally and then shoots out in one direction it means that someone has to lose out. In this case it has been the Chinese lower class and thier social environment. The Chinese live in filthy, smoggy cities with deteriorating infrastructure and a huge gulf between the classes. A new generation of Chinese are growing up who look at what they make for export and then compare it with what they have domestically. And they don't like what they see.

It should be noted; you don't get revolutions when you hit rock bottom, everyone is too flat out simply surviving. You get revolutions after a period of prosperity followed by a downturn so the people can make comparisons. Someone has to suffer from the recent slowing of the Chinese economy, and it won't be the people who are benefiting from the massive recent growth who get shafted first, it will be those lower down in the food chain.

What isn't widely known about China is that there's a lot of tension between the seaboard areas that are wealthy and the rural interior which is not. There's been a drift of people from the interior into the the seaboard areas for work, and they're going to be sent home as they get laid off and returned to even worse poverty.

This is rife T2K country. China has a huge military and the commands could easily splinter apart, as they did in the 1920s during The Warlord Era. The rural areas against the coastal industrial make for a good mix, but it's a feature of the warfare that divisional commanders 'on the same side' don't really cooperate. They manoeuvre against the enemy, but also politically against their own side to see if the can climb command ladders.

Players not wishing to play Chinese PCs would be either military or civilians in the border areas. Wild card Chinese divisions could tip North Korea over the edge while other Chinese divisions try and stop it happening and cooperate with international forces.
I like the analyzis. It sounds credible-maybe too credible for comfort -but you gotta admit -it would be a hell of a campaign to play ? I would love a T2K /Merc or mix set in those parameters.

I guess a lot of guys in here could make enough for their bread and butter by going on the networks and make statements just as good or probably a lot better than most of them .Lots of security politics and international relations insights here -various perspectives.Kato -are you relaying this to any of the agencies ? It could make cash.
hehe

[jester]

Hey, lets not forget the current Russian situation. They're again manipulating the gas and oil flow into Western Europe.

Now, how is this for a scenario:

This Winter becomes one of the coldest in memory. Peoples gas are being rationed, hundreds die from cold, or cold related illness. Mostly the very young, the old and the infirm. But it catches up to the younger people too.

The cost of natural gas goes high and sparks inflation, making people desperate.

And then investigations find that the Russians have been manipulating the gas market in Europe, not just by cutting off the supply, but through manipulation on the futures market and insider trading.

And then "terrorists" start to hit the shipments of fuel from abroad. One terrorist cell is engaged and its survivors are found to be working for the Russian government or they are outright Spietnaz personel, or GRU.

And then diplomacy falls and the tanks begin to roll. Who rolls them, Western Europe for the direct attacks on its assets and the overall attack on every many woman or child? Or Russia to save face, or to just taker over a now weakened Europe and gain a position of control for the entire continent.

[Mohoender]

Nice scenario Jest.:)

I'll change just one thing. I would imagine the terrorists to be, for exemple Pro-Russian Ukrainian (why not Crimean independentists) with strong but no direct ties with Moscow (There are several other possible choices).

Then, with the already numerous dead in the former Pact countries of the EU, the situation might quickly become tense. European countries might roll the tank first in support of Ukraine (trying to crush these terrorists) and it might extend its support to Georgia again. It would also offer membership to these countries in the EU. As a result, Russia would have to respond.

Then, the Russian can roll the tanks in response to Ukrainian military operation in Crimea. In the meantime, they would establish a free Crimea, reinforce their position in the Caucasus (why not even moving against Azerbaijan). At last they might also attempt to establish a puppet government in Ukraine. As a result, EU, fearing for its energy supply will take that opportunity to declare war.

[Targan]

Wow. Looks like the natural gas situation in Europe will be benefitting my local economy. The state where I live exports enormous volumes of natural gas. I would expect the international LNG price to soar.

[ChalkLine]

Wow. Looks like the natural gas situation in Europe will be benefitting my local economy. The state where I live exports enormous volumes of natural gas. I would expect the international LNG price to soar.

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.

[pmulcahy11b]

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.

I've heard in many places that oil has reached the "tipping point" -- over half of the oil originally in the world has already been pumped out of the ground (61% is the figure I hear most often for oil). Natural gas has also reached the tipping point -- a bit less than 51% has already been tapped.

[Targan]

I worked on LNG pipelines for a while, and I know the following;

- The Moombah gas fields are officially tapped out.
- The North West Shelf gas fields are past peak.

The only LNG fields available to us now are half owned by Timor Leste.
Do you mean the only entirely untapped gas fields available to us are half-owned by Timor Leste? Even if that were the case (and from the reports I monitor at work on a weekly basis I don't think it is) its not a 50-50 split with Timor Leste anyway. IIRC its more like 80-20 in our favour. In any case the Greater Sunrise and Browse Basin gas fields have amazingly large reserves of gas in them. Australia will be exporting huge amounts of gas for decades yet to come.

[weswood]

I am now going to try to shamelessly derail this thread by getting us all to agree she has wonderful legs.

http://z.hubpages.com/u/169065_f520.jpg


Legs? I didn't notice any legs!

[Graebarde]

LNG carriers are BEAUTIFUL targets for Ts. They are virtual floating bombs. Think of the FAE mother of all bombs the USAF used in ODS and reported as a nucdet by some folks initally. That would be a drop in the bucket to what kind of explosion one of those carriers would make. I realize they are 'industry safe' for transport and stringetly maintained etc, but sabotage and such has been known to happen. Imagine one in a port going up. I infact used one in the sidebar news of GT. And as for 'it can never happen', only the end of eternity will be the judge of that.

Grae