Mexican Army Equipment 1995

[rcaf_777]

Here is some I put together since I was wondering what the Mexican army had at the begin of twlight

Sources

SIPRI Arms Transfers Database: http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Army

And yes the Mexican Army still has US half tracks and M-520 Goers see the link below which has photos taken of them in 2003 of them. They also still M8 Greyhounds and some M74 Tank Recovery Vehicles

http://rtvmodeler.com/MEX/tierra/global.htm

[ArmySGT.]

Mexico isn't listed specifically.... Most of their non-domestic equipment can be found in this older edition of the WWEG.

http://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/row/weg2001.pdf

[rcaf_777]

Almost of the army domestic equipment was developed until later on (2000's) and the army still relay a lot of imports

An interesting possibility would be the Sedena Henschel HWK-11, which was a joint project between the Mexican defense secretary (SEDENA) and Henschel Wehrtechnik GmbH of West Germany. Originally 450 were to be produced but on 40 were actually made.

I am thinking that some of that would be factory is still around as SEDENA did an upgrade of their AMX-VCI recently. Could they start making new HWK-11 agian?

Just a though!

I also wonder how the Mexican would fair in their US invasion. I mean they have never mounted a campaign outside of Mexico and they prohibited by their constitution unless war is declared. They have also never had fought huge foreign invasion that it won. The Soviets have a lot of work to do.

[Olefin]

I looked at Concise World armies 2009 - by Ravi Rikhye and have a few updates to your list - some of this equipment would be in storage - the M5 tanks were used in Chiapas in 1999 so they would have been around in the game invasion timeline for sure

M3 light tank - 30 in service
M5 light tank - 15 in service
M8 Armored Car - 50 in service
MAC-1 Armored Car - 50 in service
M3A1 scout car - 100 in service
Mowag - 30 in service

You also have the DN-IV Caballo AOC - 40 in service

thus the only real tanks they have are the 45 M3/M5's

[Olefin]

but again keep in mind who they fought at least initially - mostly a collection of small National Guard transportation and military police companies, SWAT teams, local militia and State Guards who probably had almost no way to stop any kind of armor

[Draq]

Most US forces were in Europe, Africa, Iran, Korea/Japan/china.

[Olefin]

basically all there was as to armor still in the US was the 36th that was deployed to the north and one mech infantry division that was reforming - that and two independent armored brigades (which if I remember right were training brigades)

the new light divisions were either truck born or foot infantry - if they were lucky they probably had some M113's but thats about it

there were several MP brigades but they only had light armor at best - and considering vehicle losses in Europe they may have had everything except their Hummers taken away and sent there instead

and I think the 42nd got sent to Yugoslavia before the Mexicans crossed the border and thus they were out of the picture

and canon missed the training brigade in California- but at best they would have had Sheridan's and M113 made to look like BMP's and Soviet tanks

[.45cultist]

basically all there was as to armor still in the US was the 36th that was deployed to the north and one mech infantry division that was reforming - that and two independent armored brigades (which if I remember right were training brigades)

the new light divisions were either truck born or foot infantry - if they were lucky they probably had some M113's but thats about it

there were several MP brigades but they only had light armor at best - and considering vehicle losses in Europe they may have had everything except their Hummers taken away and sent there instead

and I think the 42nd got sent to Yugoslavia before the Mexicans crossed the border and thus they were out of the picture

and canon missed the training brigade in California- but at best they would have had Sheridan's and M113 made to look like BMP's and Soviet tanks

You'd be amazed as to the amount of LAWS and the like are available to such units.

[Olefin]

normally I would say yes - but considering how long the war had been going on, how much had been sold to the Chinese and how much had to have been shipped over to Europe and Iran and Korea before the TDM the question is how much anti-armor was left - and with CivGov and MilGov playing at shipping men over to Europe still how much of what was left did they take with them?

normally I would say they had more than enough LAW's and the like to give a good showing - but they werent expecting a Mexican attack - meaning those units along the border may not have been equipped to deal with armor

they were on missions to secure the border against refugees - thats more of a riot control mission - so did they go with their anti-armor equipment left behind at the depots?

consider that transport by then had broken down - given that they may have sent them without a lot of their anti-armor and anti-air weaponry - possibly even without any light armored vehicles they had as well to conserve fuel

now they eventually did get them because they stopped the Mexicans eventually - but could that explain the Mexican success - possibly

after all a bunch of troops with riot gear, light weapons and maybe at most tear gas and stunning grenades arent going to be able to stand up to an armored attack, even if its not a tank heavy one

and with air units restricted due to lack of fuel they may not have even known the Mexicans were building up to attack until it was too late (i.e. sounding the alarm when they are crossing the border into El Paso with Stuarts is way way too late)

[Raellus]

I'm one of the folks- a minority, it appears- who is OK with the Mexican invasion/occupation scenario presented in T2K v1.0. I find that it makes a much more interesting setting for CONUS-based campaigns. Therefore, I like to find ways to make it more plausible, instead of tearing it down as impossible.

With that in mind, it's possible that the Mexican army kept its mid-'60s era Sedena-Henschel HWK-11s in storage and that they could have reopened the production lines that manufactured them.

Also, due to the continuation of the Cold War in the v1.0 timeline, it's possible that a more left-leaning Mexico could have acquired additional IFVs from China or the Soviet Union, especially if there were increased tensions between Mexico and the U.S.A. (border security, "War on Drugs", trade disputes). Even 40 Chicom Type 59 MBTs could have been a handful for the the American forces still in CONUS when the Mexican invasion occurred. If Soviet or Chicom weapons would have been too risky, diplomatically, there were Brazilian and Argentinian IFVs on the market as well.

I'm fine with a little buffing of the Mexican Armed Forces, if it makes for a more interesting campaign.

[mpipes]

I was always dubious that the historical Mexican Army would have been in any shape to conduct offensive operations against even a modest residual force in the US. You would have had a considerable number of troops (and armor) still in the CONUS, with much of it out in the field doing relief. While many would have been state guard troops, police and civilians, there would have still been considerable numbers of National Guard troops present, combat veterans who for one reason or another had been sent home (e.g. wounded, 40th Div, etc). There were also divisions, according to cannon, fully trained but awaiting deployment (e.g., 49th Armored).

I drafted some notes based on a hypothetical buildup by Mexico. I think some such buildup would have been necessary for a successful invasion.

[ArmySGT.]

I looked at Concise World armies 2009 - by Ravi Rikhye and have a few updates to your list - some of this equipment would be in storage - the M5 tanks were used in Chiapas in 1999 so they would have been around in the game invasion timeline for sure

M3 light tank - 30 in service
M5 light tank - 15 in service
M8 Armored Car - 50 in service
MAC-1 Armored Car - 50 in service
M3A1 scout car - 100 in service
Mowag - 30 in service

You also have the DN-IV Caballo AOC - 40 in service

thus the only real tanks they have are the 45 M3/M5's

None of these has the armor plate to survive light anti armor weapons like the M203 or MK19.

M203s are organic to every fire team regardless of Combat Arms, Combat Support, or Combat Service Support.

For Military Police, The MK19 is issued one per vehicle except a few units that have an M2HB in a squad. Three M1025 or M1114 HMMWV with a MK19 per squad. This or two Mk19s and one M2HB.

This is in addition to three M9s, two M4s, one M203, and in the 90s an M60, later an M2HB. One transitional unit I was in it was one M4 dropped and an M249 and an M60.

The ammunition load is 10 cans of 40mm linked HEDP.

[ArmySGT.]

You'd be amazed as to the amount of LAWS and the like are available to such units.

In Iraq in 03, we built a sand bagged bunk to store excess.... there was to much to carry anytime we left the wire. A claymore per truck, two (then later one) AT4, six (then 4, then 2, then 1) frag, so much smoke (HC, color), spare smoke candles for the dischargers on the M1114s.

One lucky hit and any of our trucks probably would have cooked off for an hour.

[ArmySGT.]

normally I would say yes - but considering how long the war had been going on, how much had been sold to the Chinese and how much had to have been shipped over to Europe and Iran and Korea before the TDM the question is how much anti-armor was left - and with CivGov and MilGov playing at shipping men over to Europe still how much of what was left did they take with them?

normally I would say they had more than enough LAW's and the like to give a good showing - but they werent expecting a Mexican attack - meaning those units along the border may not have been equipped to deal with armor

they were on missions to secure the border against refugees - thats more of a riot control mission - so did they go with their anti-armor equipment left behind at the depots?

consider that transport by then had broken down - given that they may have sent them without a lot of their anti-armor and anti-air weaponry - possibly even without any light armored vehicles they had as well to conserve fuel

now they eventually did get them because they stopped the Mexicans eventually - but could that explain the Mexican success - possibly

after all a bunch of troops with riot gear, light weapons and maybe at most tear gas and stunning grenades arent going to be able to stand up to an armored attack, even if its not a tank heavy one

and with air units restricted due to lack of fuel they may not have even known the Mexicans were building up to attack until it was too late (i.e. sounding the alarm when they are crossing the border into El Paso with Stuarts is way way too late)

When you deploy you deploy with everything. Every long deployment I have been on the barracks are cleaned out, the troops personal items are picked up by movers, and the buildings turned over to Garrison for issue to another unit.

Your connexes are shipped by truck or rail, ship if necessary. Everything goes because your unit has no buildings or motor pool to call home.

Any rear detachment is working out of temporary offices in your parent battalion or brigade.

Everything goes, every scrap of kit because mission change happens or your shuffled to another larger parent unit.

I have three brigade combat patches for one deployment being shuffled around theater.

There is one caveat.......... All MP units are not equal..... There is three distinct MP company types and then detachments.

Division MP, Corps MP, EPW MP (also rail guards and escort guards) , and then detachments like dog handlers.

There is wide variance in MTOE for these types and equipment not normally on MTOE for that type. Example, 82nd MP is the Division MP company for the 82nd ABN Division... They unlike most MP companies have the FIM92A stinger on their MTOE because the Division Commander requires it.

[Legbreaker]

I'm one of the folks- a minority, it appears- who is OK with the Mexican invasion/occupation scenario presented in T2K v1.0. I find that it makes a much more interesting setting for CONUS-based campaigns. Therefore, I like to find ways to make it more plausible, instead of tearing it down as impossible.

I'm with Raellus on this. We're presented with the game which comes with certain "facts" about the world. Work with that information, not against it.

Change the world too much and you're no longer playing Twilight:2000, but something that only uses the game mechanics - may as well go play starwars or robotech instead.

[ArmySGT.]

I'm with Raellus on this. We're presented with the game which comes with certain "facts" about the world. Work with that information, not against it.

Change the world too much and you're no longer playing Twilight:2000, but something that only uses the game mechanics - may as well go play starwars or robotech instead.

Exactly, it is what it is, because that is the story the author wanted .

As much as it does not make sense and remains completely implausible.... That is the game story.

[Targan]

Also, due to the continuation of the Cold War in the v1.0 timeline, it's possible that a more left-leaning Mexico could have acquired additional IFVs from China or the Soviet Union, especially if there were increased tensions between Mexico and the U.S.A. (border security, "War on Drugs", trade disputes). Even 40 Chicom Type 59 MBTs could have been a handful for the the American forces still in CONUS when the Mexican invasion occurred. If Soviet or Chicom weapons would have been too risky, diplomatically, there were Brazilian and Argentinian IFVs on the market as well.

I'm fine with a little buffing of the Mexican Armed Forces, if it makes for a more interesting campaign.

My position also.

[Olefin]

I think what it may come down to again was just how much transport did the units still in the U.S. have? By the time of the Mexican invasion the U.S. was already running low on gasoline and the transport network had taken a huge hit. So while maybe in a normal situation they would be flush with anti armor weapons and ammo here the units at the border showed up not that well equipped at all - maybe just men and small arms and a few support weapons but without much of the anti armor and other heavy support weapons they normally would have. Again the huge drain of equipment to Europe and Asia to keep the units there somewhat in the fight after the massive losses of 1997 could be the culprit. "Sarge why only one grenade a piece?" "Why are you gonna need grenades private, it's not like we are gonna fight a war against Mexico?" says the sergeant, not knowing the next morning that he would be fighting for his life against enemy armor crossing the Rio Grande.

[Olefin]

And considering the Chinese are fighting for their lives against the Russians I doubt there will be Chinese MBT's crossing the Rio Grande. If the Mexicans do go armor shopping most likely they would be looking at either old French armor or possibly trading oil for MBT's to someone like Cuba or Israel

According to canon their AFV's are almost all ERC-90's, their APC's the VAB

Looking at what they actually had then the most likely place the Mexican Army expanded was they bought more ERC-90's to add to the 120 they already had to produce the AFV's you see that are left by 2001, supplemented by what is left of the M3/M5 tanks (which may have stayed in Mexico and make up the AFV's that are seen in their forces that are still there)

As for APC's using the AMX-VCI in place of the VAB basically conforms to canon - those vehicles came from the Belgian Army in 1994-1996, a sale which might have still occurred due to the age of the vehicles

And yes most of their armor didn't have the ability to stand up to anti-armor weapons that the US had - which again support the canon, which had them basically facing very lightly armed reserve and National Guard units, which may have been equipped more as riot control police and less as infantry ready to fight in a war.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind too you have to add Soviet Division Cuba in there as well

Based on what was really in Cuba in real life when the Soviet Union collapsed and extrapolating how they would have been armed you could be looking at 11,000 men and some 120 tanks (with them bringing some Cuban T-62's and T54/55's with them to supplement the T-72's and T-80's in canon) and a good amount of BMP's and BTR's as well plus attack helicopters

that gives them a heck of an edge in Texas - especially if the Soviets had helicopters and the US didn't have much air power left due to fuel shortages and lack of aircraft - and the Cubans, who would have been short on gasoline of their own, might have given the Soviets most of their helicopter fleet to use themselves, giving the Soviets a big advantage over US units that might have almost no air support of their own

so that right there gives the Mexican invasion the teeth it needs to succeed at least in Texas

[Olefin]

Now if you are looking elsewhere to build up the Mexicans

Brazil would be operating M41 Bulldogs - they had 340 of them - they did have a lot of indigenous APC's that Mexico could have bought

Argentina would have the TAM - that is a pretty good tank and they would have been producing them right around the canon time frame but I dont see them parting with more than 30-40 of them at most

Israel would have Super Shermans, Egypt older Soviet equipment, and again you have the French for sure since they had already sold so much to Mexico

Personally I think Mexico could have pulled off the invasion with the equipment they had - they caught the 49th out of position, other units spread all over the place and their main opposition at the start would have been MP units (and not combat ones most likely), National Guard units that were most likely logistics and transport companies pressed into being border guards and riot control units, and local police and militia units.

Given the state of the US by mid 1998 if they had had a large tank force the US probably couldnt have stopped them short of Kansas and Arkansas and San Francisco

And while the equipment they have isnt breakthru equipment, their army isnt that kind of army - they train to fight insurgents and rebels and riots - so most likely they didnt send their troops into battle riding those APC's they had or use tanks as breakthru units - instead they used the APC's to transport men to where they could be discharged but without exposing the APC's to direct fire (i.e. doesnt matter if the US has M203's or Mk19's if the infantry gets deployed way out of their range) and they may have used their tanks and armored cars as mobile artillery - i.e. putting the 90mm cannon on the ERC-90 to use in a support role for infantry

and considering they would have had access to men who were trained to get into and out of the country much of their offensive would have consisted of getting around US units using that knowledge, making our guys fall back to avoid being surrounded - i.e. the Spartans at Thermopylae went down because they got flanked and forced out of the pass, not becauses of the frontal Persian assaults

[rcaf_777]

M3 light tank - 30 in service, M5 light tank - 15 in service

I dont think think theses are light tank but the M3 and M5 Halftrack which were give to Mexico in the 1960's

[Olefin]

Mexico had M3 and M5 Stuarts in operation well into the 1990s' - they were used during the Chiapas rebellion - they also had several M8 75mm howitzer mortar carriages - the only Shermans they had stiill in operation were three tank retriever versions

They orginally got 25 each of the M3A1 and M5 light tanks at the same time they got the 100 M3A1 scout cars

The M8's and the remaining Stuarts fought in 1994 against the Zapatist rebels - they were there to guard against any kind of Guatemalan incursion

[unkated]

I also wonder how the Mexican would fair in their US invasion. I mean they have never mounted a campaign outside of Mexico and they prohibited by their constitution unless war is declared.

Clearly, it required large bribes form GDW to get the Mexican MoD to consider such an action, illegal under the Mexican constitution!

:D

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

actually what still gets me is why the Mexicans didnt declare war on the Soviets - it wasnt the US that nuked Mexico's petroleum facilities after all - yes they did get nuked to deny the oil to the US - but actually bringing in the Soviets to help them after they killed who knows how many Mexicans in the nuclear strikes shows that whoever was leading Mexico would have been someone who Hitler and Stalin probably would have been queing up to shake his hand one day

[Webstral]

We had a conversation along these lines some time ago. I’ll try to summarize what was discussed briefly (not my strong suit, as many of you know).


I think there was general agreement that the Mexican Army was not in a very good position to project power into the United States in 1998 for a variety of reasons if nothing was done to improve the state of the Mexican Army between August 1995 and November 1997. For the moment, I’ll skip over training and logistics and go to the AFV park.


I have long maintained that the PRC would have responded to the invasion by the Soviet Union by going shopping. Chinese indebtedness would have given China some leverage over Western actions, since the fall of the regime in Beijing would have unknown consequences for payment on Western loans for China. In addition to ramping up their own production, the Chinese would have bought everything that wasn’t nailed down. I believe equipment would have been transferred from the interior and every front that wasn’t fighting the Soviets with the intent of replacing that equipment with whatever junk could be acquired from anyplace else at a low cost.


This situation opens up a door for the Mexican Army to make some changes. They have an opportunity to offload some of their older fighting vehicles for cash, although not very much cash. At the same time, they would have the opportunity to sell hardware to China. I have posited that the Mexican arms industry obtains the rights to manufacture VAB, Lynxes, AMX-30, and a few other French systems under license specifically for the Chinese market. The Mexican Army thus sheds a fair few of its older systems with the intent of replacing them incrementally as orders for China roll off the assembly lines. As a result, by November 1997 the Mexican Army has more modern equipment than ever and has a more uniform TOE than ever.


The heating up of the nuclear exchange means that hardware intended for shipment to China can be absorbed by the Mexican Army. Consequently, there are enough AMX-30 available for Second, Third, and Fourth Mexican Armies each to get a package.

[Olefin]

I can see the Mexicans maybe making the AMX-13 but not the AMX-30 - you dont just jump into making tanks when previously the best you have ever been able to make is armored cars

plus while the AMX-30 is not suited to Mexico's road and rail systems, which in the 90's were in pretty bad shape, the AMX-13 or a armored car is. If they used the 90mm turret version it fits with their ARV's they already have on hand. In addition that vehicle has a ton of parts that are in the AMX-VCI of which they have over 400 of them - meaning that spare parts and logistics for the AMX-13 would be a snap

However keep in mind that a tank plant takes years to get up to speed, especially if they dont have experience building them, which they dont. They would have had to start production, tooling, etc.. years earlier - and by that I mean 1992-93 - they would be lucky if by mid-98 they had made a dozen tanks with start point of when the Soviets invaded China - its just not that easy to start building tanks from scratch and get any significant numbers made

I know - I worked for BAE for years - you don't just start building heavy tanks with no experience, no trained techs, no trained armor welders (which takes quite a while to train), let alone produce heavy armor plate you need for tanks when everyone in the world is trying to corner the market on it

Plus Mexico suddenly going on a crash program to build a ton of MBT's and deploying them on the US border would have been seen big time as a threat to the US - and their whole invasion, as scripted by GDW- works as it does because no one considers them a serious threat.

Otherwise the 49th, 197th and other units would have been on the border and kicked their butts as they came over - instead of lightly armed riot control troops

Mexico does however have experience building APC's and armored cars - and thats where the better candidate comes that supports canon and would be much faster for them to get up to speed to where they would have built a good amount by the invasion -

you said the Lynx - how about instead they get a license to build the ERC-90 Sagaies and upgrade the 120 ERC-90 Lynx's that they had to that configuration - now you have a gun that can take on MBT's and defeat them - and since they are already operating 120 of them again they have the spare parts, logistics and most important of all experience with the vehicles

the Sagaie was built to take on T-72's - meaning they would be effective against the M48's and M60's that guard units would most likely have

and as canon said the AFV's they had were almost universally the ERC-90 - so the newer version being built there ties in perfectly

And the ERC-90 being built by Mexico wouldnt be seen as the threat that MBT's are - tank generals count tanks, not armored cars or APC's -

If Mexico got MBT's like the AMX-30 then they would have never needed Soviet Division Cuba - they brought them over to get the MBT's they didnt have - otherwise why use scarce fuel, transport and logistics to bring them over when you already have MBT's in hand

[swaghauler]

A resurgent Socialist regime in Russia would not have received Western aid in the early through mid 90's (as it did in our real history). This would have led to Russia seeking monetary aid "elsewhere" in the world. Two immediate options would have been sanctioned Iran and Iraq. Russia could have traded Arms (and nuclear development assistance) for oil; Deteriorating its relationship with the West even more. Another area where Russia could have gained actual "capital" in US dollars would have been through the South American Drug Cartels. They have always had a "working agreement" with the Russian Mafia; Imagine how far they could extend their power if they bought Russian tanks, helos, and planes. You could go so far as to assert that the Cartels toppled the US friendly Mexican government and installed a "puppet regime" in response to joint US/Mexican operations against them. They have huge levels of funding and the Russians were more than willing to provide the new regime with the hardware and "training assistance" needed to keep them in power (at the appropriate cost, of course). This would also help explain the invasion of US soil. The Cartels were just securing their "drug trafficking routes" into the US.

[mpipes]

However keep in mind that a tank plant takes years to get up to speed, especially if they dont have experience building them, which they dont. They would have had to start production, tooling, etc.. years earlier - and by that I mean 1992-93 - they would be lucky if by mid-98 they had made a dozen tanks with start point of when the Soviets invaded China - its just not that easy to start building tanks from scratch and get any significant numbers made


Plus Mexico suddenly going on a crash program to build a ton of MBT's and deploying them on the US border would have been seen big time as a threat to the US - and their whole invasion, as scripted by GDW- works as it does because no one considers them a serious threat.


That's why I decided on a military build-up starting in 1982, with a production rate for AMX-40s only reaching 52 in 1995 (and yes some went to China). As far as evaluating threats.....anyone hear of ISIS/ISIL....you know, the JV team of wannabe Islamic baddies..... Plus, all our intelligence attention and assets would have been concentrated on the Soviets, and Washington is notorious for concentrating on only one threat at a time and missing developing new ones....look at the sudden surprise that the Russians are moving into Syria...then there is the Kuwait invasion...Benghazi.... etc.

Thus, I don't view the ignoring of the Mexican threat as particular surprising or even a relative ignorance of just how much military competence Mexico had gained by the invasion. After all, a LOT of intelligence and analysis ability/ capacity of the US disappeared on TDM. The war in Europe would have absorbed most of the intelligence assets remaining, and anyone trying to advance the idea of Mexico invading would have found their concerns dismissed in the face of "real threats" confronting CIVGOV and MILGOV. Just as with the Pearl Harbor attack, or Hitler's initial invasions, no one would be able to really grasp that a "second rate" military would undertake such a monumental task.

[Olefin]

and I agree that if you make the POD (point of departure) for the Mexican Army buildup earlier then it becomes a lot more possible

Also keep in mind having Mexico trying to suddenly build up in 1996 and 1997 and into the invasion in 98 means them having to face how they are doing so when the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are infested with Russian commerce raiders, long range bombers and subs - and that they take a major nuking in 1997 when the refineries get hit

so trying to buy and transport materials, let alone vehicles and arms, gets very dangerous in the face of Soviet anti-shipping efforts - and the USN has their hands full protecting war shipping - they arent going to help Mexico get stuff from France or Argentina or Brazil

also once the Soviet-China war starts all bets are off - yes sure the Chinese could buy stuff from Mexico - but why does this suddenly mean they have money to buy stuff from other people? Those other people are also selling to China as well - and the UK and the US and the Russians and anyone else involved in the war - and Mexico is not in a position to win a bidding war

plus people keep thinking they need MBT's or the invasion fails

to which I say balderdash - not with the opposition they faced - they are facing an emasculated US military, with very little fuel, with much of the country completely screwed up, the road and rail network smashed in many places and almost all their heavy armor and anti-tank weapons deployed overseas

frankly if Mexico had a bunch of MBT's they would have taken the whole Southwest and CA and Colorado, etc.. - there would have been nothing to stop them - having what they did have makes the invasion and stopping of it where it happened totally plausible

[ArmySGT.]

So somehow Mexico has produced the assets......

Refined fuels in the 100,000s of thousands of gallons per day to support three or more Corps level armored thrusts.

Generated Corps level Supply, Maintenance, Refuel, and Transportation Battalions. A ratio of 10 support troops to one combat arms that goes up to 15 to 1, and 25 to 1 the more sophisticated the equipment.

Generated several Corps of garrison troops to occupy a few million miles of occupied territory comprising the American southwest.

Generated the rations to support troops in occupied territory.

Overwhelmed the U.S. forces on Active duty throughout the U.S. southwest and lower central united states.

Ft. Huachucha, Ft Bliss, Ft Hood, Ft Sill, Ft Carson, White Sands Missile Range, Toole Army Depot, 29 Palms, NTC ..... Air Force assets like Nellis Air Force base (where air dropped nuclear weapons) any of which fully supports National Guard and multi service and joint service full spectrum training.

A force which in peace time dwarfs the Mexican armed forces in just personnel.

There is no logical reason the Mexican army could gain a foot hold past Interstate 10 regardless of the number of drug traffickers and human smugglers assisting them.

The situation is the way the authors wanted the situation to be because a United States locked in a chaotic internal strife was and is great story material.

[Raellus]

@Swag: A narco-puppet state is a really interesting concept. I was going with a more left-leaning PRI administration irked by U.S. border/immigration/trade policy but I kind of like your scenario better. Any offensive by a narco-puppet would instantly benefit from established smuggling routes and distribution cells.

@Web: I also like your idea of setting up shop to license-build light AFVs for the China market.

@Olefin: In the scenario I posited, the Mexicans purchased Chicom armor prior to the Second Sino-Soviet war. And I agree with you that heavy armor isn't needed to explain/justify the Mexican army's early successes. IMHO, it just makes the setting more interesting. Also, IRL, the Mexicans did have some first-hand experience manufacturing tracked AFVs in the form of the short-lived Sedena-Henschel HWK-11s. It's not too far a stretch to take a reverse-engineered ERC-90 turret and slap it on there. That said, I prefer theidea of Mexico license-building Brazilian EE-T1 Osorio MBTs or Argentinian TAMs to Chicom or Russian equivalents.

@ArmySGT: It's about making it work. Yeah it's implausible, but it's not impossible. Timing the invasion after the TDM, when most regular U.S. army and guard units are already deployed on foreign soil, it doesn't seem all that crazy to see a Cuban/Soviet-supported Mexican invasion of the American SW having some success, at least early on. It certainly makes for an interesting campaign setting.

[Webstral]

To be sure, there are obstacles to be overcome in getting tank production going in Mexico starting in 1995 with the first tanks rolling off the line less than 2 years later—quite serious obstacles. Success depends a good deal on political will and what resources can be brought to bear. I posit this development less because I think it’s very likely than to provide a pretext for suspension of or lessening of disbelief regarding the Second Mexican-American War—an event that never took place within the context of a bigger war that never took place. Either we rewrite the shape of things pertaining to this particular portion of the Twilight: 2000 chronology (a perfectly acceptable option for those inclined to go that route) or we try to jiggle and/or shape pieces that don’t fit together until they do. I belong to the latter school, though in truth I’ve used a combination of approaches in my work.

[Legbreaker]

I don't think we need to worry about the HOW of it. No player will ever see the full extent of what's going on, not even everything within eyeball range. If they do start asking questions and actively investigating IC, then throw a few tidbits of information that way which might explain one portion of the whole, but leaves them completely ignorant about the rest.

Who here has ever had a gaming group stay together long enough for several years IC to pass? Shouldn't it be the GMs job to keep the world they're playing in interesting - ie mysterious?

Yes, GMs should have an overall understanding, but don't sweat about the minute detail of it. Just wing it, or only develop those small pieces of the puzzle you need to as, when, and especially IF the PCs ever find themselves in a position to actually find out the truth of anything.

Don't over analyse, and above all, K.I.S.S.

[LT. Ox]

Just my take.
Each of us brings his or her own set of learned information to the game WE play at OUR table. That makes it personal and I think it brings out the desire to justify to others the how and why of OUR game.
My game is played with my background and all that I have experienced and learned put into play. I have been a soldier and a Cop a Machinist and a salesman, a teacher and a Boy Scout leader. I have lived in California and Louisiana and Colorado and spent time in Viet Nam and Africa an ad couple of other areas that have seen shooting. I bring that to MY game. So here is the point, when you tell others how such and such IS or how it must be perhaps you should remember that is the case in your world., after all it has not really happened.
I posted a means to remove a perceived threat by improvised methods, I have never done that but I am sure that it is possible, given a particular set of circumstances, and a bit of luck. I have read any number of similar posts here about what Might be, given a particular set of what if circumstances, most are very reasonable to me under the circumstances put forth, all are, in the minds of those that posted them.
I think the folks that posted them should be aware that by posting you are inviting a discussion of those thoughts and scenarios. On the other hand discussion is not personal attack and I have not read anything here that indicates those posting are not aware of and very competent in the use of the English language, in other words saying I did not mean to insult or belittle another just will not fly.
Oh well my two cents again.
Carry On

[Legbreaker]

Well said, and a small detail that is overlooked by a few.

[Olefin]

FYI

One way you could have Mexico have MBT's would also fit right into those who love Red Dawn type scenarios and Harold Coyle books, which you can clearly see in the Texas module - how about they get them from Nicaragua, either with Nicaraguans manning them or just buying them?

The Soviets delivered 20 T-54's and 136 T-55's to Nicaragua and 22 PT-76B's and considering the time frame of the game they should still be fully operational.

Thats a lot of potential armor for Mexico - and better yet, since Cuba operates those vehicles as well they could have bought parts for them from Cuba.

So lets say they buy 120 of them from Nicaragua in late 1997 as planning begins for the invasion - they can be delivered very easily and the spares come from Cuba as well as Nicaragua. They use Nicaraugan and Soviet trainers to get their guys up to speed and organize them into three 40 tank battalions and assign one to each army going into the US.

Or they use Soviet Division Cuba for tank support in Texas and put one battalion going into Arizona and two going into California.

Bingo - instant MBT's for the Mexican Army - and a great way to bring the Nicaraguans possibly into the invasion for those who want to do Red Dawn.

Raellus FYI- the Henschel HWK-11s were all manufactured and plant shut down by 1966. I highly doubt by 1996 that many of those workers and techs are even alive, let alone able to assist in getting a MBT plant up and running.

Again I dont see them making MBT's in Mexico - but don't underestimate the ERC-90, especially the improved version. The French have been very successfully using it as a light tank for a long time - and given the nature of what the invasion would be like they could be very very effective as tanks.

I would hate to be a National Guard commander that got issued a few M48's out of storage having to go up against a force of ERC-90 Sagaies.

And for the record - I would totally be in agreement on Mexico getting licensed to make the ERC-90 Lynx or Sagaies and increasing their number of them significantly prior to the invasion - they already have 120 of them and almost 20 years of experience operating them - and for Mexico it makes just about the perfect AFV

And making that kind of vehicle fits perfectly with their past abilities to make the HWK-11 - and also provides a hell of a scenario for players

I.e. you get tasked to get into Mexico and blow up that plant, which is being used to repair damaged vehicles and is still turning out a few new ones from time to time using existing stockpiled parts

and maybe even grab a couple for the players to use while they are at it

[Olefin]

So somehow Mexico has produced the assets......

Refined fuels in the 100,000s of thousands of gallons per day to support three or more Corps level armored thrusts.

Generated Corps level Supply, Maintenance, Refuel, and Transportation Battalions. A ratio of 10 support troops to one combat arms that goes up to 15 to 1, and 25 to 1 the more sophisticated the equipment.

Generated several Corps of garrison troops to occupy a few million miles of occupied territory comprising the American southwest.

Generated the rations to support troops in occupied territory.

Overwhelmed the U.S. forces on Active duty throughout the U.S. southwest and lower central united states.

Ft. Huachucha, Ft Bliss, Ft Hood, Ft Sill, Ft Carson, White Sands Missile Range, Toole Army Depot, 29 Palms, NTC ..... Air Force assets like Nellis Air Force base (where air dropped nuclear weapons) any of which fully supports National Guard and multi service and joint service full spectrum training.

A force which in peace time dwarfs the Mexican armed forces in just personnel.

There is no logical reason the Mexican army could gain a foot hold past Interstate 10 regardless of the number of drug traffickers and human smugglers assisting them.

The situation is the way the authors wanted the situation to be because a United States locked in a chaotic internal strife was and is great story material.

So you know ArmySgt I agree with many of your points - and you can see that Fort Bliss really held them up - it was one of the main places their invasion bogged down while the School Brigade held them up - and also shows how they probably didnt have MBT's - because while AA weapons can really do the job on APC's and armored cars they wont do much against an MBT - if they had those they should have just rolled right over Bliss

and also looking at their stop point in the invasion I am betting that they never took 29 Palms - that given the fight the Marines would have given them for Pendleton that by 29 Palms they would have been running out of steam and they got stopped dead just north of Palm Springs

And the 49th is at Fort Sill so they never got there

You have to wonder how many troops were still at those facilities - the Marines have basically sent everyone they had overseas except trainers and logistics troops, the Navy doesnt train its guys for ground combat (thats what the Marines are for), and many of the Air Force bases would be down to minimal personnel with the deployments overseas

But Sill and Bliss definitely would have been very hard nuts to crack with the schools there - and no matter what types of Marines are at 29 Palms and Pendleton as to combat or logistics and training formations, all Marines are riflemen first and foremost - they wouldnt have given up those bases without one hell of a fight

[Legbreaker]

Just because a unit is listed as being in a certain location, doesn't mean they spent the whole war there.

[Olefin]

No I dont mean the 49th spent the whole war at Sill- the Mexicans never made it to Fort Sill - i.e. per canon they got stopped in Texas - and the Army Guide and HW (if you use it) has them at Fort Sill after they were brought back to Texas, headed up the 1999 counteroffensive and got their butts kicked by the Soviets

[swaghauler]

@Swag: A narco-puppet state is a really interesting concept. I was going with a more left-leaning PRI administration irked by U.S. border/immigration/trade policy but I kind of like your scenario better. Any offensive by a narco-puppet would instantly benefit from established smuggling routes and distribution cells.

@Web: I also like your idea of setting up shop to license-build light AFVs for the China market.

@Olefin: In the scenario I posited, the Mexicans purchased Chicom armor prior to the Second Sino-Soviet war. And I agree with you that heavy armor isn't needed to explain/justify the Mexican army's early successes. IMHO, it just makes the setting more interesting. Also, IRL, the Mexicans did have some first-hand experience manufacturing tracked AFVs in the form of the short-lived Sedena-Henschel HWK-11s. It's not too far a stretch to take a reverse-engineered ERC-90 turret and slap it on there. That said, I prefer theidea of Mexico license-building Brazilian EE-T1 Osorio MBTs or Argentinian TAMs to Chicom or Russian equivalents.

@ArmySGT: It's about making it work. Yeah it's implausible, but it's not impossible. Timing the invasion after the TDM, when most regular U.S. army and guard units are already deployed on foreign soil, it doesn't seem all that crazy to see a Cuban/Soviet-supported Mexican invasion of the American SW having some success, at least early on. It certainly makes for an interesting campaign setting.

Keep in mind that under the narco-puppet state idea, they could be buying weapons from anyone who's selling. In fact, if the US is "distracted" from South America; One has to wonder how many countries like Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, and Bolivia would "fall under the influence" of the Cartels wielding Russian heavy weapons and using Russian "advisers?"
I would however change the cannon if you pursue this. I would say that Mexico's oil wells would not have been nuked by Russia and that platforms owned by the now "hostile" Mexico were occupied by the US military "to prevent Russian use of Mexican oil in the war" (triggering the Mexican military response on US soil?).

[ArmySGT.]

@ArmySGT: It's about making it work. Yeah it's implausible, but it's not impossible. Timing the invasion after the TDM, when most regular U.S. army and guard units are already deployed on foreign soil, it doesn't seem all that crazy to see a Cuban/Soviet-supported Mexican invasion of the American SW having some success, at least early on. It certainly makes for an interesting campaign setting.

Where this falls apart is....... What use is Brownsville? The east gulf coast is where the refineries and ports are. Where they going to link up and take a honeymoon road trip along the Texas coast?

[Raellus]

Where this falls apart is....... What use is Brownsville? The east gulf coast is where the refineries and ports are. Where they going to link up and take a honeymoon road trip along the Texas coast?

OK. As GM/steward of your own T2KU, change it or leave it out. I'm not trying to convert anyone to my way of thinking.

[ArmySGT.]

Ok.....

I was trying to discuss the T2K game universe....

I remember now why I quit before.

You guys can have it.

I am tired of these temper tantrums .

Don't call. I'll be over on the TMP side.

[Targan]

Don't call. I'll be over on the TMP side.

Please stay.

[rcaf_777]

I am wondering how the war effects the border situation. I mean the US is going to be manufacturing loads of war material and they are going need manpower, would you see lots people of Mexico or the Central America trying to cross and find work? if the war industry is need would the authorites turn more of blind eye? Would you see Mexicans in the the US Military?

[Legbreaker]

Would you see Mexicans in the the US Military?
Well there's a recipe for disaster!
I'd imagine that recruiting from the Mexican population would likely cease, or at least slow down the moment an unfriendly government was installed in Mexico. Those who were recruited are sure to have been shipped as quickly and as far away from south western US as possible, probably to Europe or the middle east (Korea is also a possibility, but that would probably entail them leaving from California or parts nearby and might be seen as a bit risky).
Bound to be screams of racism once the pattern was observed, but hey, it's WWIII, those protests are getting shut down hard!

[Olefin]

You know you will see them - and keep in mind that the US is also at war with Italy and Greece - but I highly doubt that the US Army would suddenly not take Italian and Greek Americans as soldiers

During WWII my uncle Charlie served in the US Army starting in 1942 - he had lived in this country for nearly 22 years (he was 31 at the time) but had never officially become a US citizen (he was born in Italy) - however he was inducted and served at a time when the US was at war with Italy

[pmulcahy11b]

You know you will see them - and keep in mind that the US is also at war with Italy and Greece - but I highly doubt that the US Army would suddenly not take Italian and Greek Americans as soldiers

During WWII my uncle Charlie served in the US Army starting in 1942 - he had lived in this country for nearly 22 years (he was 31 at the time) but had never officially become a US citizen (he was born in Italy) - however he was inducted and served at a time when the US was at war with Italy

Did they give him and his family (assuming he was married) a simplified road to citizenship? Today, the US military will (usually) help a servicemember and his family all they can.

[Targan]

Did they give him and his family (assuming he was married) a simplified road to citizenship? Today, the US military will (usually) help a servicemember and his family all they can.

I was a New Zealand citizen when I joined the Australian Army Reserve. They fast tracked my citizenship - it was literally just a couple of weeks and I received my citizenship certificate.

[Legbreaker]

I was a New Zealand citizen when I joined the Australian Army Reserve. They fast tracked my citizenship - it was literally just a couple of weeks and I received my citizenship certificate.

Somebody obviously screwed up and put you on the wrong list. I'm SURE you were supposed to be immediately deported! ;)

[Targan]

Somebody obviously screwed up and put you on the wrong list. I'm SURE you were supposed to be immediately deported! ;)

Yeah, well 20/20 hindsight and all that :p

[Olefin]

Did they give him and his family (assuming he was married) a simplified road to citizenship? Today, the US military will (usually) help a service member and his family all they can.

actually they did - he became a citizen during the war (and unfortunately a POW of the Germans as well after the Bulge - which is why he always hated Hogans Heroes with a passion)

[.45cultist]

Did they give him and his family (assuming he was married) a simplified road to citizenship? Today, the US military will (usually) help a service member and his family all they can.

The actor Mako played Japanese soldiers, but served in the U.S. Army during Korea. His parents were college professors who were in the U.S. during the war and served as translators for Navy Intelligence. His family got citizenship from congress in recognition of their aid and he reunited with them.

[Webstral]

FYI

One way you could have Mexico have MBT's would also fit right into those who love Red Dawn type scenarios and Harold Coyle books, which you can clearly see in the Texas module - how about they get them from Nicaragua, either with Nicaraguans manning them or just buying them?

The Soviets delivered 20 T-54's and 136 T-55's to Nicaragua and 22 PT-76B's and considering the time frame of the game they should still be fully operational.

Thats a lot of potential armor for Mexico - and better yet, since Cuba operates those vehicles as well they could have bought parts for them from Cuba.

So lets say they buy 120 of them from Nicaragua in late 1997 as planning begins for the invasion - they can be delivered very easily and the spares come from Cuba as well as Nicaragua. They use Nicaraugan and Soviet trainers to get their guys up to speed and organize them into three 40 tank battalions and assign one to each army going into the US.

Or they use Soviet Division Cuba for tank support in Texas and put one battalion going into Arizona and two going into California.

Bingo - instant MBT's for the Mexican Army - and a great way to bring the Nicaraguans possibly into the invasion for those who want to do Red Dawn.

Raellus FYI- the Henschel HWK-11s were all manufactured and plant shut down by 1966. I highly doubt by 1996 that many of those workers and techs are even alive, let alone able to assist in getting a MBT plant up and running.

Again I dont see them making MBT's in Mexico - but don't underestimate the ERC-90, especially the improved version. The French have been very successfully using it as a light tank for a long time - and given the nature of what the invasion would be like they could be very very effective as tanks.

And for the record - I would totally be in agreement on Mexico getting licensed to make the ERC-90 Lynx or Sagaies and increasing their number of them significantly prior to the invasion - they already have 120 of them and almost 20 years of experience operating them - and for Mexico it makes just about the perfect AFV

Some interesting ideas there. Without giving up on the idea of having Mexico build AMX-30 under license, I’m willing to explore the idea of acquiring tanks from other sources and the idea of boosting numbers of Lynxes. Certainly, they would be purchased by China if the AMX-30 is going to be purchased by China.


Before agreeing that the Lynx can do the job of supporting a Mexican thrust into the US, I would want to figure out how Second Mexican Army deals with a counterattack by 40th Infantry Division. The division draws a number of MBT when it reforms. The M60 outranges and outguns the Lynx and has better protection. The M1 is even more so. Conventional wisdom says that any encounter between American MBT and the Lynx is going to be as lop-sided as the Operation Desert Storm. It’s hard to imagine that the Americans make no serious effort to expel the Mexicans from Southern California. Yet the disposition of forces in July 2000 indicates that either there was no real effort or that the Americans failed. This needs some explanation. Or a rationale for the Americans making no effort has to be devised. I’m at a loss in this regard thus far, though I’d welcome some ideas to get me thinking.

[Olefin]

one question would be how does the 40th counterattacks - and how much armor they ever got - it sure looks like from the various vehicles they have that they didnt get much armor when the time came to reorganized the division in the US - they have a wide variety including CEV's as tanks

so while they may have got better tanks how many did they get? Is this a WWII situation for the 40th - i.e. the Germans had better tanks than the Americans but a heck of a lot less than the US did - so were the few better MBT's that they got overwhelmed by larger numbers of Mexican armored cars - (i.e. its one thing if they got 100 tanks, a much different thing if they only got 25)

or did the 40th get cocky and do something stupid - i.e. the Mexican stuff is junk why the hell should we care - and get themselves ambushed by ERC-90's at effective range? I could easily see the Mexican's getting one heck of a black eye in an opern field battle then sucking the 40th into where they could ambush them, either in an urban environment or other places that offer concealment - especially if the 40th didnt have any air support

in other words did the commander make the mistake the Germans made in Stalingrad and let themselves get sucked into a tank battle in built up terrain?

or you could have the Mexicans get the T-55's from Nicaragua (and maybe even some T-64's from Cuba as well) and concentrate them all in CA - now they have a mix of ERC'90's and Soviet MBT's and make a more effective force

I think the key may come down to how they fought the 40th - I can see the Soviets in Texas taking on the 49th in an open fight - after all they had helicopter gunships and for all we know the 49th didnt - but in CA maybe they relied on ambush tactics to get close enough to make their weapons able to effectively engage the US MBT's - losing a lot of vehicles in the process but still stopping the US in its drive south

[Webstral]

Where this falls apart is....... What use is Brownsville? The east gulf coast is where the refineries and ports are. Where they going to link up and take a honeymoon road trip along the Texas coast?

Whether Army SGT is still lurking or ever comes back, I think this question is worth answering. What is the strategic objective of the Mexican action? The official reason—to save Mexican lives—is propaganda. The Mexican government would be glad to be rid of hungry mouths, many of whom will be First Nations people or malcontents fleeing ethnic cleansing and crackdowns at home in 1998. Some ordinary Mexicans obviously would be troubled by violence against Mexican nationals in the US.

I think there are a couple of plausible reasons, which I have explored previously. One reason is that a foreign adventure is good for distracting people from troubles at home. Another is that being seen to protect Mexican lives against those bad Americans can’t hurt. Then there’s the near certainty that Mexican oil refineries will be nuked by the Soviets to keep them out of American hands or by the French to make the Americans think the Soviets did it. The Soviets could play off nuking Mexican refineries as yet another act of Yankee imperialism. Knowing that Mexican oil would give Mexico a leg up in world, the Americans destroy Mexico’s oil to keep Mexico down. And then there’s the fact that 150 years prior the United States lopped off half of Mexico.

I think it’s quite possible that the Mexican senior leadership does not have a clear idea of what they are trying to achieve. Inflicting a defeat on the Americans obviously is a good thing. But what happens after the Mexican Army has won a few battles and captured some territory? Where is the stop line? In the short term, the foreign adventure is good for public morale. After a little while though, the absence of military units in the interior begins to cause problems on top of all the other problems the country is experiencing. What to do?

While I agree that rationally there is little chance that Mexico would invade the US under the circumstances that exist in 1998, I like the invasion thematically. I recognize that it borders on a deus ex machina for the purpose of expanding the Twilight: 2000 war zone to a whole new territory. Still, I think there’s an important theme at work. People do stupid things under stress. At many points in the chronology cooler heads might have prevailed and put an end to the war but didn’t. The Twilight War as a whole could have been avoided. A Mexican invasion of the US for ill-defined objectives fits the theme of absurd wastefulness quite nicely.

[Olefin]

Well we know the Mexican refineries get nuked - and I doubt the US would do it (after all why not just invade and take them for themselves?)

and I dont see the French doing it

but keep in mind that even with that fact it doesnt mean that the Mexican government would acknowledge that to the general populace - its just as easy to say "the gringos nuked us!" - after all its not like anyone is going to be able to prove who actually fired the missiles by mid 98

and with how badly the US was hit the Mexican government may have wondered what they had to lose in trying to get back what was once theirs or at least as much as they could

the problem is that there is only so much war fervor can do to distract people at home - and you are right about what would happen with too much of the Army bogged down in CA, AZ, NM and Texas and no way to get them home in time - 'viva la revolucion!"

[Webstral]

There are a lot of unknowns about the situation in California, which gives us leeway. We do know that 40th ID drew vehicles from a variety of sources. We don’t know how many, so there is wiggle room there.

It’s curious that according to US Army Vehicle Guide 40th Infantry Division is in central California. I would imagine that the surviving tanks would be in the southern part of US territory facing the enemy. The MPs would be better suited to policing the interior, including the all-important Central Valley. What does the presence of 40th ID in the interior tell us? Granted, the 1999 counteroffensive is a year gone. From a Twilight: 2000 perspective, that campaign is ancient history.

When I have thought about this in the past, I’ve imagined that the armor of 40th ID was handled incredibly carelessly and that the armor and anti-tank forces of the Mexicans were handled brilliantly. Perhaps the American leadership fell victim to hubris based on their imagined invincibility. How could a few Mexican armored cars hope to stand up against American MBT? So it may well be that the Mexicans lured the striking power of 40th ID into a kill sack or found a way to turn the terrain decisively to Mexican advantage.

[Olefin]

keep in mind too what the 40th is protecting (and it shows the authors really didnt know the California that well)

The Soviets nukes the big refineries in the state and thus you cant get oil production out of LA or near San Francisco - but there are three smaller refineries in Kern County around Bakersfield - and those three refineries get their oil from the Kern oil fields around them - so that makes Bakersfield the last gas station in CA

so why is the 40th there? To keep the Mexicans from getting that oil - and to keep it for MilGov

that could also explain why they didnt counterattack - the 40th could have been tasked with hold on in Bakersfield no matter what and stop the Mexicans dead if they try to grab the oil or the refineries


and thus the Mexican forces come on, get their heads handed to them by the 40th and draw back - and the 40th just stays put and makes sure that Bakersfield gets held

thats why HW doesnt make sense - you dont go thru all that trouble to hold Bakersfield and then withdraw - not when if you do there goes the last oil on the west coast

[Olefin]

I see the Mexican invasion as one that wasnt that well thought out by GDW much as the CivGov effort in Yugoslavia wasnt thought out

its almost like an afterthought - how do we get to do Red Dawn in the game - hey I got it lets have Mexico invade the US with the Russians sending a divsion along for the ride!

and if you are discussing the Mexicans - why did the Texian Legion, who wants independence for Texas, spend so much time fighting US units and not Mexican ones? If they are strong enough to wipe out a US Reserve Infantry Division (which for all we know may have had as few as 3000 men in it) then why the heck havent they driven the Mexicans out of most of Texas?

its not like the current Mexican Army could do much to stop them

[Webstral]

If memory serves, US Army Vehicle Guide lists 40th ID as being in central California in July 2000. They are controlling an area centered on a Sacramento-Oakland corridor. I’m not certain about this without checking my reference material, though. There is an MP brigade at Bakersfield. I agree that it’s odd that the Bakersfield oil is not being more heavily guarded. What are the possible explanations for this? Having driven the Grapevine (I-5 between the southern end of the Central Valley and the SoCal conurb), I can say that the road network offers few bypasses. Destruction of the road in a few places would effectively isolate the Central Valley from the south. There are a few smaller roads, but these are even more vulnerable to destruction.

The best I can come up with for the 40th not being at Bakersfield or at San Luis Obispo is that the security situation in the central Central Valley requires that AFV be present. This isn’t very satisfactory. There aren’t any enemy tanks around. It’s hard to imagine a civil unrest situation that can’t be handled by M2 or M113 with a cupola. Perhaps the Sixth US Army CG just can’t bear to have his most potent force far from his headquarters.

Regarding the Texian Legion, if memory serves they beat up a light infantry division engaged in clearing eastern Texas of hostile armed bands. The Mexicans may never have reached Texian Legion territory in any strength or at all. The Legion may have spent its strength in fighting federal forces. Afterwards, they may not have been in a position to try to expand their holdings. It’s hard to say.

[Olefin]

The US Army Guide reads as follows for the 40th

In May the division arrived at Camp Roberts, California.
After being reinforced by a variety of armored vehicles the
division was again redesignated as 40th Infantry Division
(Mechanized) and committed to combat against elements of the
Mexican Army and assorted armed bands.

Howling Wilderness has them in Lompac Tulare Monterrey Bakersfield - so they may be in the Bakersfield area after all

And the Texian Legion engaged the 85th Infantry and the 95th Infantry Division in January of 1999, with the 85th being surrounded and almost annihilated - meaning the Legion had enough combat power to take on two US light divisions (one of which had tank support) and emerge victorious - and this only a few months after they were defeated soundly by the 197th Infantry Brigade in October of 1998 (The brigade arrived in Louisiana in October and conducted a successful offensive against the Texian National Legion, breaking its grip on east Texas per the US Army Vehicle Guide)

So it seems the Legion must be quite a large force to be able to do all that

[Webstral]

That'll teach me for trying to have a discourse without checking my reference materials first.

Okay, so now I have my materials in front of me and can make better sense of things.

In California, we don’t have much to work with aside from a few mileposts. We know that 40th ID was reformed in Oregon in early 1998 and arrived at Camp Roberts, CA in May that same year. We know the division subsequently was committed to action against the Mexican Army and various armed bands. We know that in late 1999 the division nominally controls a huge swath of territory with corners at Bakersfield, Lompoc (next to Vandenberg AFB), Monterey (only 1 r), and Tulare. We know that in July 2000 the division left Milgov service on sufficiently favorable terms for 900 personnel to relocate to Sacramento.

We know 46th ID moved by road from Ft. Carson, CO to central California in the last quarter of 1998 after being rebuilt at Carson. In late 1999 the division occupied defensive positions in the southeastern portion of the Central Valley. In July 2000, the division relocated north to Sacramento.

We know 49th MP Brigade fought Mexican forces in 1998 and was forced back to Camp Roberts by the end of the year. We know that at the end of 2000, the brigade moved to Stockton—a useful position if barge traffic is still functioning.

We know that at some point in 2000 the 221st MP Brigade was disbanded and used to reinforce other Milgov units in Sixth US Army.

We don’t know much else. The Mexican Army article in Challenge doesn’t give specific locations for the units of the former Second Mexican Army. We know from City of Angels that some Mexican troops are located in and around Los Angeles. I honestly can’t imagine what they are doing there.

It seems most likely to me that most surviving Mexican units in California will be located in and around the Imperial Valley. This is where the food is, provided the water has been kept flowing. I have long suspected that the Constitucionales (EMC) would have pushed their control east to Yuma and ejected any Nationalists who remained there after the split. The real prize would be the Imperial Diversion Dam, if it is intact in July 2000. If so, then I suspect the Army of California is focused on the Imperial Valley for its food, the nearby Desert Cities for any surviving industry, and the Imperial Dam-Yuma area for control of the water for the Imperial Valley. Taken together, the units of the Army of California dispose 3,500 troops and 16 AFV in July 2000. It seems unlikely to me that with a civil war ramping up in Mexico they would have any interest in Los Angeles, to say nothing of tangling with the Americans in the Central Valley or along the coast. I think that by 2001 the Second Mexican-American War has gone into remission in California.

There has been some work done to fill in some of the gaps in California from June 1998 through July 2000. I’ve done some of it, and some others have completed some very good work.

Texas is another issue deserving attention on another day.

[Olefin]

In my T2KU the Howling Wildnerness changes never happened and the US is about to go over to the offensive finally in 2001 in CA to eject the Mexicans. I dont agree with the movement of the 40th out of its original cantonment for one big reason - OIL. Thats why the MilGov move makes no sense and again makes me think the authors didnt know the state very well - you dont have your units in OK basically fight to death to guard it and then walk away from a huge oil field in Bakersfield and wells and small refineries that werent hit in the exchange.

So that part of HW, even more so than other parts, makes no sense whatsoever - the 40th isnt going to walk away from that much oil.

And the Challenge article does give the locations - you just have to work out the latitude and longitude positions -but you are right - most of them are right along the border - but there are units deployed in the Los Angeles area but not in the city itself

[unkated]

We know from City of Angels that some Mexican troops are located in and around Los Angeles. I honestly can’t imagine what they are doing there.


Organized looting? Lot of territory to cover, and lots of it will have been churned through once or twice before.

Uncle Ted

[Olefin]

considering the sheer size of LA plus the cities in the basin there is a big chance there is a LOT of stuff left to find there - and keep in mind that some of the others that were previously too radioactive to look at may have now cooled down


the other thing is to look at the placement of the nuke strikes - many of them would have left a lot of LA intact

always wondered why the authors didnt have the Russians try to set off the San Andreas with nuke strikes on the fault line

[Webstral]

The 40th doesn't walk away from the oil. Sixth US Army does, it seems, but 40th ID does not. I’m also inclined to dismiss both the severe drought and the very high attrition rate of military units that are not generally in high-tempo combat, as we have all discussed at great length. Once the population and food supplies balance out, which they seem to have done in most places by the time the Fall harvest of 2000 comes in, recruitment should be able to keep pace with losses fairly easily.

It is hard to understand why things develop the way the authors describe in California. The Bakersfield oil would be a major factor in the thinking of the senior leadership in the region. One possibility is that the supply of oil or refined products becomes so small that it is not as big a deal as we might otherwise expect. Accidents or sabotage might be responsible for a refinery bottleneck. It’s hard to say. I do note that the parting of company between 63rd Corps and 40th ID seems amicable. Nine hundred troops from 40th ID leave the division and go north, which strongly suggests that some sort of modus vivendi has been worked out between Sixth US Army CG and the commander of 40th ID. Perhaps some sort of trade agreement has been put into place whereby Sixth US Army provides 40th ID with something they need in return for crude oil or refined products. While this sort of dealing seems counterintuitive on the surface, perhaps a few very level-headed people realized that blue-on-blue violence as a solution to their differences was going to weaken everybody and perhaps destroy some of the critical remaining infrastructure.

And the Challenge article does give the locations - you just have to work out the latitude and longitude positions -but you are right - most of them are right along the border - but there are units deployed in the Los Angeles area but not in the city itself

Interesting! I have a download that doesn’t have locations more specific than “California” or “South Texas”. I’d be curious to see the locations given in your resource on a map.

I really do wonder why the Army of California is putting manpower into patrolling/occupying Los Angeles. Most of us here understand what four nuclear strikes on the LA basin is going to do to LA County. The whole basin ought to look more-or-less like Tokyo after the last big firebombing raid before the attack on Hiroshima. I haven’t read City of Angels extensively, so I’m not familiar with the rationale given for the presence of Mexican Army units. It seems to me like a needless diversion of resources.

When I was still putting time into Thunder Empire, I gave some thought to the fate of the Army of California. It seems to me that the Second Mexican Civil War offers the Americans an opportunity, though not without cost. We know that there are two main factions fighting for control of Mexico: the Nationalists (ENM? Really, the PRI) and the Constitutionalists (EMC). There are several smaller groups, and they are not without their importance. What matters is that the EMC is the main rival to the PRI throughout most of Mexico in 2000.

Milgov is going to want to see regime change in Mexico, if at all possible. If this isn’t possible, then Milgov would like to see an independent Republica del Norte or Aztlan Republic in northern Mexico to be a buffer between the US and the main body of Mexico. This amounts to supporting the EMC. EMC control over the Imperial Valley and the Imperial Dam gives them an important base of supply upon which an offensive to capture the rest of Baja California and/or Sonora might be based. The Americans want to regain control over this resource, but taking this resource from the EMC would deprive them of a crucial resource for their own efforts even if forces available to Milgov in the American Southwest were up to the task and could get it done without major losses. It’s a challenge.

Los Angeles is going to be reduced to ashes and rubble by firestorm. The thermal pulses from four separate nuclear explosions within the basin will create a firestorm that will dwarf anything seen in WW2. Greater Los Angeles is noteworthy for being wall-to-wall development. Obviously, not everything will be completely destroyed. But the level of destruction will be spectacular--comparable to Warsaw only even more widespread.

[Olefin]

I lived in LA and there are areas that are natural fire breaks (the freeways for instance, the LA River, the Hollywood Hills, Griffith Park, etc..) that could stop the whole basin from going up - and remember you have places like Glendale, the San Fernando Valley, Pasadena that are a long way from where the nukes hit.

One big question would be the winds that day - thats a big factor in fires in LA - depending on how they were blowing you could have had the fires move quickly or not - so I dont see LA as being a sea of ruins a la Tokyo in its entirety

[Olefin]

The 40th doesn't walk away from the oil. Sixth US Army does, it seems, but 40th ID does not. I’m also inclined to dismiss both the severe drought and the very high attrition rate of military units that are not generally in high-tempo combat, as we have all discussed at great length. Once the population and food supplies balance out, which they seem to have done in most places by the time the Fall harvest of 2000 comes in, recruitment should be able to keep pace with losses fairly easily.

It is hard to understand why things develop the way the authors describe in California. The Bakersfield oil would be a major factor in the thinking of the senior leadership in the region. One possibility is that the supply of oil or refined products becomes so small that it is not as big a deal as we might otherwise expect. Accidents or sabotage might be responsible for a refinery bottleneck. It’s hard to say. I do note that the parting of company between 63rd Corps and 40th ID seems amicable. Nine hundred troops from 40th ID leave the division and go north, which strongly suggests that some sort of modus vivendi has been worked out between Sixth US Army CG and the commander of 40th ID. Perhaps some sort of trade agreement has been put into place whereby Sixth US Army provides 40th ID with something they need in return for crude oil or refined products. While this sort of dealing seems counterintuitive on the surface, perhaps a few very level-headed people realized that blue-on-blue violence as a solution to their differences was going to weaken everybody and perhaps destroy some of the critical remaining infrastructure.



Interesting! I have a download that doesn’t have locations more specific than “California” or “South Texas”. I’d be curious to see the locations given in your resource on a map.

I really do wonder why the Army of California is putting manpower into patrolling/occupying Los Angeles. Most of us here understand what four nuclear strikes on the LA basin is going to do to LA County. The whole basin ought to look more-or-less like Tokyo after the last big firebombing raid before the attack on Hiroshima. I haven’t read City of Angels extensively, so I’m not familiar with the rationale given for the presence of Mexican Army units. It seems to me like a needless diversion of resources.

When I was still putting time into Thunder Empire, I gave some thought to the fate of the Army of California. It seems to me that the Second Mexican Civil War offers the Americans an opportunity, though not without cost. We know that there are two main factions fighting for control of Mexico: the Nationalists (ENM? Really, the PRI) and the Constitutionalists (EMC). There are several smaller groups, and they are not without their importance. What matters is that the EMC is the main rival to the PRI throughout most of Mexico in 2000.

Milgov is going to want to see regime change in Mexico, if at all possible. If this isn’t possible, then Milgov would like to see an independent Republica del Norte or Aztlan Republic in northern Mexico to be a buffer between the US and the main body of Mexico. This amounts to supporting the EMC. EMC control over the Imperial Valley and the Imperial Dam gives them an important base of supply upon which an offensive to capture the rest of Baja California and/or Sonora might be based. The Americans want to regain control over this resource, but taking this resource from the EMC would deprive them of a crucial resource for their own efforts even if forces available to Milgov in the American Southwest were up to the task and could get it done without major losses. It’s a challenge.

Los Angeles is going to be reduced to ashes and rubble by firestorm. The thermal pulses from four separate nuclear explosions within the basin will create a firestorm that will dwarf anything seen in WW2. Greater Los Angeles is noteworthy for being wall-to-wall development. Obviously, not everything will be completely destroyed. But the level of destruction will be spectacular--comparable to Warsaw only even more widespread.

And by the way I agree totally with you that having US units continue to shrink and lose manpower in the US makes no sense at all- you have a population that is looking to get fed - well the quickest way to get fed is to join the US Army - if anything those units should be growing in size, using recruits to bring back their service units and letting combat soldiers concentrate on being infantrymen again

i.e. "Ok Sonny, looks like you passed the test" says the Sergeant tasting his rabbit stew. "You are now in the US Army. Report to the mess sergeant tomorrow!" - which now lets the trained infantryman who got drafted into being a cook because they were so short on manpower go back to being an infantryman

[Webstral]

I agree that the Valley and some other places a bit removed from Los Angeles probably will be spared. I also agree that which way the wind is blowing will matter a great deal, since the refineries are all fairly close to the shoreline.

A factor I didn’t think of until just now is moisture. 1997-1998 is [was] an El Nino winter. Recently, I’ve been told that El Nino affects SoCal more than the SF Bay Area. Thanksgiving is well into the rainy season. I’d have to look at what actually happened that season in terms of rainfall in Los Angeles, but very wet ground will inhibit the spread of fires. How much I can’t say. Still, I’d be willing revise my estimate of the level of destruction downward based on an exceptional rainy season, other factors aside.

If we are willing to accept that the entire LA basin hasn't been reduced to cinders, then organized looting is not an unreasonable proposition. It would not be uncommon for gangs of professional salvagers to operate in unoccupied areas. They would be desirous of security so that people who are good at salvaging could focus on that mission instead of providing their own security. There is a logic to assuming that if there are areas that aren’t charred ruin that a combat unit would provide security for a large-scale salvage operation for a fee. If the salvage operation is big enough, then a combat unit with hundreds of troops and operational AFV might find security ops profitable or even run the show.

[Targan]

A factor I didn’t think of until just now is moisture. 1997-1998 is [was] an El Nino winter. Recently, I’ve been told that El Nino affects SoCal more than the SF Bay Area. Thanksgiving is well into the rainy season. I’d have to look at what actually happened that season in terms of rainfall in Los Angeles, but very wet ground will inhibit the spread of fires. How much I can’t say. Still, I’d be willing revise my estimate of the level of destruction downward based on an exceptional rainy season, other factors aside.

I know from bitter experience here in Australia that a wetter than normal year inhibits fires while the rain is around, but the following dry season is invariably MUCH worse for fires because of the explosion in vegetation growth due to all that moisture.

So even if the fires resulting from the destruction of the refineries aren't as bad due to wetter ground, the following year when there's not much in the way of organized firefighting crews around anymore, fires that start by other means are going to run completely out of control, with that much more dry vegetation to feed them.

[Olefin]

i would think that any forest fire issues in CA wont be a factor in Los Angeles for quite a while - LA's city areas outside of a few parks isnt exactly a place of lush growth - but I can see fires devastating places like Malibu for instance as happened when I was there in the 90's - so areas like that in the basin may be almost as burned out as the areas hit by the nukes

LA is just too big an area to properly ever say its been picked over totally - which is not to say its going to be easy looting by 2001 - but it wont be a picked clean skeleton either

[rcaf_777]

The Imperial Valley would be a key area for any army to control as it has canals and other key water reseources for Calforina and Arizona. It also has Interstate 8 running thru it which contects Calforina and Arizona. The Morelos Dam would also be a key item to control

I wonder is Naval Air Facility El Centro would be spared as it would a logical place for Military Forces to Operate out off

[Olefin]

Just as an exercise I plotted out the attack on LA using the excellent resource http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ - and I wonder why the game designers had the Soviets attack as they did - for one the amount of destruction is way past the point of a "limited attack on oil facilities only" - for another its definitely overkill

The Nuke attacks are as follows:

Torrance, CA: Oil refining and storage facilities (.5 Mt).
Wilmington, CA: Oil refining and storage facilities (1.25 Mt).
El Segundo, CA: Oil refining and storage facilities (1.75 Mt).
Carson, CA: Oil refining and storage facilities (.75 Kt).

Plus the attack on March Air Force Base

Ok first question - if you are going after refineries why are they using 1.75 megatons? Thats a city buster not a refinery buster.

Second - look at a map of LA and the whole attack makes no sense to use that many nukes. The Torrance and Carson strikes are basically overlapping - either the Torrance or Carson strike, all by itself would have taken out both facilities quite handily, as the air blast radius overlaps each other - and you don't need the fireball to take out an oil storage facility. In other words the Soviets weren't taking out oil facilities - they were specifically taking out the city of Los Angeles

When you add it all up it takes out basically the area from the 10 to the 5 to the 605 and hits LA with 4.25 Megatons - again a hell of a lot more than just "the oil facilities were hit"

Given that level of attack I definitely now agree with those talking about the firestorm destroying LA - Glendale, Burbank, the Valley, Pasadena and Orange County would survive but in the basin itself anything south of the Hollywood Hills and west of the San Gabriel River would have been one huge firestorm and nothing but ruins - i.e. what you see in the Terminator movies

One interesting thing - even with that devastating a pattern, due to its location there is every chance the Inglewood Oil Field would have survived both the attack and the resulting fires

[mpipes]

Ok first question - if you are going after refineries why are they using 1.75 megatons?



Simple answer....deliverable warheads. In the 1990s, most Soviet ICBM and SLBM warheads were at least 500kt yield, even on their MIRVs. Here are some stats for 1990s:

SS-17 4X400kt MIRV 1X3.4mt
SS-18 1X18-25mt 1X20mt 8-10X.5-1.5mt MIRV 10X.75-1.0mt MIRV
SS-19 6X400kt MIRV 1X5mt
SS-24 10X550kt MIRV (36 of 92 missile located in Ukraine before breakup)
SS-25 1X800kt
SS-27 1X800kt
SS-N-8 1X1.5mt
SS-N-18 3X500kt MIRV 7X100kt MIRV 1X450kt
SS-N-20 10X100-200kt MIRV
SS-N-23 4X100kt MIRV

Note that the SS-18 (Mod 6) carrying a single 20mt warhead was intended for high altitude detonation to generate EMP.

Moreover, no one is really sure how well their ICBMs or SLBMs will actually perform, so in real life multiple missiles would likely target some targets. For example, 3 or 4 MIRV missiles (maybe as many as 16 warheads or more) would likely be allocated to the DC area to make absolutely sure of the destruction of the White House and Pentagon bunkers, Washington Naval Yard, CIA, NSA, State Dept, Congress, and Andrews AFB. I would not be surprised at all at the number of missiles targeting the LA area, especially since the B-2 production line was in the vicinity as well as high tech defense companies and manufacturing. If memory serves me right, the main Raytheon ECM and radar production facilities were in LA as one example.

[Olefin]

Oh I am not doubting that they couldnt lay on that attack - but thats a lot of overkill to use that many warheads when two of the attack pts are overlapping - in fact if they came in close to each other in time the detonation of one warhead might have taken out the other one before it detonated.

Using the two 1 MT plus warheads as they did though - that's a city killer mission, not the "we are trying to avoid an all-out exchange" mission

Its one thing to use the big ones on ICBM fields or isolated targets - its another to have it basically go off right in the center of a major population area.

Remember the whole purpose was to avoid escalation to an all out exchange by not busting cities (with DC and Moscow being the big exceptions) - that kind of nuke used on LA would have been about the dumbest move possible in that situation.