Venezuela in TW 2000

[rcaf_777]

Some thoughts

The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200's first coup attempt took place on February 4, 1992, and was led by Hugo Chávez. A second coup attempt on November 27, 1992

In 1998 Hugo Chavez is elected President

He described himself as a Marxist

Possible Soviet Ally in the War? or dose the US overthrow him?

[Legbreaker]

Some thoughts

The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200's first coup attempt took place on February 4, 1992, and was led by Hugo Chávez. A second coup attempt on November 27, 1992

In 1998 Hugo Chavez is elected President

He described himself as a Marxist

Possible Soviet Ally in the War? or dose the US overthrow him?

With the world in chaos, why would the 1998 election necessarily go ahead as it did IRL?
What's to say the government didn't clamp down hard on any opposition and institute ongoing, long term and effective martial law?

T2K is a game based on an alternate history (originally future history). Why is there such a need from some parts to rewrite everything to fit the real world?

[raketenjagdpanzer]

IMC the chavezistas never got traction; the Soviets going full "nuke the shit out of everything" kept a right-wing Junta in charge in Venezuela and in exchange for whatever hard currency (ie gold) both MilGov and CivGov can come up with they'll sell oil to whomever. They're pretty important in T2k...

[kalos72]

South/Central America have always been very interesting to me. I love some of the ideas the Spanish Main module gave.

But I could never come up with an outline for the regional situation....

[rcaf_777]

Why not have the 1992 coup succeeded and Hugo become a Soviet ally it makes Cuba stronger and might give you some interesting encounters

[Olefin]

I don't see the US standing by and letting Venezuela go Marxist in a 1st edition world for sure - but there is a good chance that given the continuing US-Soviet confrontation of the 1st edition that Chavez may have never been let go from prison

In a second edition timeline you could see Chavez being released and forming his political party as happened in our timeline

However in both timelines Venezuela gets nuked in late 1997 as part of the attacks against oil production - after that the country would probably rapidly fall apart into a vicious fight over what was left

given the locations of the refineries and other infrastructure in the country Caracas probably would not be hit by nukes - but you could see that city rapidly fall apart as panic would hit the country after so many of its cities would be hit by nukes going after their refineries

and remember it depends on when the Soviets hit the refineries - were they hit by conventional weapons, Spetsnaz or Soviet supported guerillas before the war went nuclear or after the TDM when it was time to make refineries glow?

About the only one that might still be standing would be the San Roque refinery as it specializes in paraffin production and its production rates are very small

[Slappy]

In my Caribbean campaign, Venezuela was a major point of interest.

The country itself was always fairly weak and disorganized. The nuking of refineries and major production centers quickly pushed the government over the edge. The place essentially ceased to function at anything but a local level as what army and police there were took their guns and walked off. Most major production ceased, but there were a lot of small wells out in the country, offshore or on islands that survived to at least some extent.

The resulting chaos became a major playground for the regional players: Cuba, France, Holland, the UK and occasionally the US. The Europeans had only token garrisons in their Caribbean possessions (ABC islands for Holland, French Antilles, Barbados for the UK), but they had better institutions and discipline. The vast majority of their forces were in tact and they had defendable islands with limited room for guerilla action.

Cuba and France were the major players. The Cuban government was a shadow of its former self and controlled only a third of the island, but they started way ahead of the Europeans and were intent on maintaining access to oil. France had little to spare in the region, but benefited greatly from relative order at home, and they were also very keen to diversify their sources of oil. Holland, the UK and the US were mainly there for color. Their resources were more limited, and the Dutch and Brits more interested in getting oil for local use than to send back to Europe.

The PCs worked as mercenaries, mostly for the Dutch out of Aruba. They were protecting small oil sites, performing recon of enemy sites and doing some small raids. It was a fun little campaign before real life issues caused it to disband.

[unkated]

This what I have from a Caribbean Sourcebook I have been working on:

Venezuela


Description

In the last half of the 20th century, Venezuela's economic well-being fluctuated with the unstable demand for its primary export commodity, oil. Oil accounts for three-quarters of Venezuela's exports, half of its government's fiscal income, and a quarter of the nation's GDP. The 1970s were a particular boom period (due to the 1973 and 1978 oil crises in the US), but economic conditions worsened through the 1980s.

(History through the 1980s matches RL)

History

1989 – Perez is elected on an anti-neoliberal platform, but due to economic crises, is forced to counter that – minimizing stipends to the unemployed, raising the price of fuel locally, which in Caracas was immediately passed on as a price rise for public transportation – causing a week of riots.

1992 – Feb: Leftist coup attempt (includes Victor Chavez) against Perez. Chavez appears on TV for 1 minute, apologizing for the lives lost, but vows to return. Then goes to prison unti 1994. Perez survives another coup attempt in Nov.

1993 – Perez impeached for spending $17 million illegally to support the election of Violetta Chamorro in Nicaraqua. Raphael Caldera, campaigning on an anti-neoliberal platform, is elected in December with 30% of the vote to his nearest rival's 23%.

1994 - As one of his election promises, Caldera released Chávez and other army dissidents in March.

1996 – Caldera reverses himself on economic policy, adopting IMF programs in 1996 and 1997 that stipulated neoliberal adjustment and opened the state oil industry to private investment. In November, about 1.3 million workers walked off the job in a general public sector strike (increasing unrest, stirred by left wing parties with an eye to next election in 1999); and in late August 1998, Caldera obtained legislation from Congress enabling him to rule by decree.


However, 1998 nuke strikes on oil industry –

Oil market damaged; trade damaged. Chavez seizes power as Caldera gov’t fails.
Strike actually by Soviets, as oil industrial base still owned by foreign firms, especially US oil companies.

However, other than military backing, Chavez does not have assets in place to provide aid. Unrest in Caracas and major cities; lack of communication with villages. Chavez concentrates military on remaining fuel resources, more or less as a strongman marshalling all resources to extend control south fomr the coast. He could claim marxist brotherhood with Cuba, but the Soviets aren't really around to do anything for him.

Lots of chaos, starvation, death, and lack of control in the hinterlands as you go south.

hmmm. look for any ethnic/race/class issues.

Interesting possibility - engineering aid (and possibily limited small arms and ammo) from (unnuked, uninvaded) Cuba for some fuel production.


Military

Navy: 2 German Type 209/1300-class SS, 6 Italian Lupo-class FF, 2 Almirante Clemente-class FF, 23 patrol craft, 4 Capana-class LST, 1 ex-US Terrebonne Parish-class LST.

Army:


Repairing oil facilities
Repairing roads
Providing large-scale stills

Economic

Home to an oil industry. – and nuked for it.

1994: suffers economic downturn due to falling oil prices and problems in banking industry.

Possible Targets:

Punto Fijo, Venezuela
Punto Cardon, Venezuela
Bajo Grande Refinery - south of Maracaibo


Note that Curacao also sufferes a nuke strike on its refinery, whcih happens to be in the middle of its capital and largest city.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles

The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands

Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries

also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility

I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most

[lordroel]

Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles

The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands

Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries

also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility

I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most

A here comes what i created for my own universe in handy, it would fit as far as i know what forces the Netherlands had in the Caribbean.

Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean in 1997

The Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean (Dutch: Commandement der Zeemacht in het Caribisch Gebied, COMNLCARIB) is responsible for the activities of all forces in the Caribbean who operate from four bases (3 bases on Curaçao and 1 on Aruba).

The service branches, militias and volunteer corpses who operated in the Caribbean are:

The Royal Netherlands Navy (Dutch: Koninklijke Marine).

The 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP) of the Netherlands Marine Corps (Dutch: Korps Mariniers) which consist of the 31st, 32nd and 33rd infantry companies.

The Netherlands Naval Aviation Service (Dutch: Marine-Luchtvaartdienst, MLD).

The Royal Netherlands Air Force (Dutch: Koninklijke Luchtmacht, KLu).

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (Dutch: Koninklijke Marechaussee, KMar), military police.

Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (Dutch: kustwacht voor de Nederlandse Antillen en Aruba, NA&A CG) (1).

The Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which consist of three platoons (2).

The Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL) and the Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL) which consist of one platoon each (3).

The Volunteer Corps Netherlands Antilles (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Nederlandse Antillen, VKNA) is made up of three volunteer corpses namely the Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA), Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC) and the Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten).

Bases and deployments of Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean

Curacao: Parera Naval Base

Parera Naval Base, the main naval base for the Royal Netherlands Navy and headquarters of the Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean where the station ship (Karel Doorman (M) class multi-purpose frigate) HNLMS Van Amstel, one permanent support ship HNLMS Pelikaan (4), six Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats and two P-class patrol boats (5) operated from.

Curacao: Marine Barracks Suffisant

Marine Barracks Suffisant (6), the main marine base which house the 31st and 32nd Infantry Company (7) of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (8), a detachment of the Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which is made up of a small training cadre and one infantry platoon, the Curaçao Militia and the Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao (VKC) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

Curaçao: Hato Airfield

Hato Airfield, the main military airfield with two Fokker F-27-M transport aircraft and two P3C-Orions.

Aruba: Savaneta Marine Barracks

Marine Barracks Savaneta (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF) houses the 33rd infantry company of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group who also serves as a military education and training unit for the Antillean Militia which is made up of a training cadre and two infantry platoons, Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA) which is made up of some 100 volunteers and the Aruban Militia.

Sint Maarten

The Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has some 20 personal on the island of Sint Maarten to assist the local police.

Notes

(1) The Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard has approximately 160 personnel. Of these, 140 come from the Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten and 20 from the Royal Netherlands Navy. These 160 consist mostly of personnel actually deployed to carry out operations and the occupation of the Coast Guard bases located on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten.

(2) The Antillean Militia consist of local conscript personnel and a small volunteer cadre numbering some 148 who form three infantry platoons. The Antillean Militia is trained, clothed and equipped by the Marine Corps as (conscript) marines. When mobilized the Antillean Militia will be made up of eight company-sized security detachments each with company strength of 148 men (totaling some 1,184 men) who would be commanded by Netherlands Marine Corps officers and sub-officers.

(3) The Aruban Militia and the Curaçao Militia are unlike the Antillean Militia made up of professional soldiers and have their own officers.

(4) HNLMS Pelikaan (A801) can carry 3 trucks, 6 land cruisers, 2 water trucks, 27 pallets of goods and equipment and a total of 40 marines.

(5) There are four P-class patrol boats who are operated by the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (NA&A CG). Two operate out of Curacao, one from Aruba and one patrol boat from Sint Maarten. Named P 1, P 2,P 3 and P 4 they have a displacement of 35 tons fully loaded, a speed of 18 and a complement of 6.

(6) Officially known as Detachment of Navy Base Parera, known until 1978 as Marine Barracks Suffisant (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF).

(7) One company consist of a company staff, three infantry platoons, a combat support group and a service support group.

(8) Whit the outbreak of the Sino-Soviet War in 1995 the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps had station in the Caribbean the 21st Infantry Company stationed at Naval Base Parera (twenty-four men) and the 22nd Infantry Company stationed at Marine Barracks Savaneta (twenty-five men) part of the 2 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Tweede Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 2AGGP). When in July 1996 the Netherlands began to mobilize in responds due the West German Bundeswehr crossing the inter-German border into East Germany the two companies where redeployed back to the Netherlands. The two companies where replaced by the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP).

[WallShadow]

Sint Maarten

The Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has some 20 personal on the island of Sint Maarten to assist the local police.

Notes

(1) The Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard has approximately 160 personnel. Of these, 140 come from the Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten and 20 from the Royal Netherlands Navy. These 160 consist mostly of personnel actually deployed to carry out operations and the occupation of the Coast Guard bases located on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten.


(5) There are four P-class patrol boats who are operated by the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (NA&A CG). Two operate out of Curacao, one from Aruba and one patrol boat from Sint Maarten. Named P 1, P 2,P 3 and P 4 they have a displacement of 35 tons fully loaded, a speed of 18 and a complement of 6.



(8) Whit the outbreak of the Sino-Soviet War in 1995 the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps had station in the Caribbean the 21st Infantry Company stationed at Naval Base Parera (twenty-four men) and the 22nd Infantry Company stationed at Marine Barracks Savaneta (twenty-five men) part of the 2 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Tweede Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 2AGGP). When in July 1996 the Netherlands began to mobilize in responds due the West German Bundeswehr crossing the inter-German border into East Germany the two companies where redeployed back to the Netherlands. The two companies where replaced by the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP).

Sint Maarten should be a hotbed of intrigue: France shares the island (St. Martin makes up the northern half). Considering the aggressive pre-emptive moves by France against the Benelux Countries and Germany's western border, I should think that shennanigans would be the order of the day, with infiltrations, recons, sabotage, and other tomfoolery going on between the two.

[kalos72]

Would love to see some numbers and TO&E's for these types of forces...

[lordroel]

Sint Maarten should be a hotbed of intrigue: France shares the island (St. Martin makes up the northern half). Considering the aggressive pre-emptive moves by France against the Benelux Countries and Germany's western border, I should think that shennanigans would be the order of the day, with infiltrations, recons, sabotage, and other tomfoolery going on between the two.

I think with the Antillean Militia fully mobilized one or two company-sized security detachments (148 men each) would be station in St. Martin and maybe a platoon of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group might see the island of St. Martin to be a place where things will heat up soon.

[Olefin]

Actually working on some numbers and TO&E's for them - the Netherlands Marines were a formidable force by Caribbean standards - plus you have to add in basically a company between the two militias as well as the MP's assigned there as well that were spread between the islands

and given what was going on in Europe there is a good possibility that some of their surviving ships may have gone to the Caribbean as well

[lordroel]

and given what was going on in Europe there is a good possibility that some of their surviving ships may have gone to the Caribbean as well

If the Soviet nuclear strike on the Isla Refinery happen than there will be no naval base for the Royal Netherlands Navy to use, its located right next to the refinery,

[Olefin]

That's the question with the Netherlands Antilles - did Curacao get nuked or not? And even if it did the goal of raiding Aruba in Gateway to the Spanish Main pretty much shows Aruba didn't - so any naval units could have moved there.

there are two ports there that Royal Netherlands Navy could use even if Curacao was destroyed

and I don't see the commanders there leaving everything they had right next to the refinery in Curacao after the nukes started dropping - they cant move the base but they can disperse supplies, men, equipment and ships as much as they can - in fact they probably started doing so as soon as the war in Europe went nuclear - you cant move the refinery but you don't need to keep all your eggs right next to it to get fried along with it

[lordroel]

That's the question with the Netherlands Antilles - did Curacao get nuked or not? And even if it did the goal of raiding Aruba in Gateway to the Spanish Main pretty much shows Aruba didn't - so any naval units could have moved there.

there are two ports there that Royal Netherlands Navy could use even if Curacao was destroyed

and I don't see the commanders there leaving everything they had right next to the refinery in Curacao after the nukes started dropping - they cant move the base but they can disperse supplies, men, equipment and ships as much as they can - in fact they probably started doing so as soon as the war in Europe went nuclear - you cant move the refinery but you don't need to keep all your eggs right next to it to get fried along with it

That is correct, the most likely thing they would do is move either the 31st or 32nd Infantry Company of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group to the island of Sint Maarten in order to spread their most combat proven force they have in the Caribbean.

Nobody is going to invade Aruba or Curacao, Venezuela has other priorities, thus the main focus will be the defense of the Netherlands part of the island of Sint Maarten.

[Legbreaker]

I still don't understand why the Dutch would have sent any troops to the West Indies when every other soldier was withdrawn to Holland when the French invaded, and most Dutch units have been almost wiped out and rendered ineffective, or at best operating as guerilla resistance fighters.
Where's the logic?
Where are these troops coming from?
How are they being supported when the Dutch government/military has effectively been destroyed?

[RN7]

I may have missed it but I have yet to see any reference to a nuclear attack on the Carribean, Central America or the north coast of South America in any of the GDW sourcebooks.

If the Panama Canal wasn't a nuclear target then I doubt that the French rocket launching site in French Guyana, or any local oil refinery or military base was a nuclear target either.

The Dutch forces in the Antilles are a bit on the light side. One Marine company, a frigate, a few patrol aircraft and some para-military and police. The Dutch also have their hands full in Europe with the nuclear attacks on the Netherlands and the French occupation of the Rhine. I doubt their will be any reinforcement, and Dutch forces in the Antilles will be low on spares, ammunition etc.

There is the possibility of some help from NATO allies in the region. The Americans are pre-occupied with their own problems but there is still likely to be some US forces in Panama, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Unknown if such forces are MilGov or CivGov.

This is a non-canon variant writeup from Orrin Ladd.

http://t2k.homestead.com/southamerica.htm

Also likely some British forces in the region. British territories in the region include the British Virgin Islands, Caymen Islands, Montserrat and Turks and Caicos. Also Bermuda in the Atlantic. British had forces in Belize until the mid-1990's; RAF Harrier flight, Army helicopters and some infantry (Belize still has a British Army training base). Missile Frigate usually based in Caribbean and certainly some para-military and police forces on islands, and probably some small military forces. Most of the rest of the English speaking Caribbean is also British Commonwealth and is closer politically and culturally with Britain than it is with America, although Jamaica is likely to be a hell hole.

.

[Olefin]

the Netherlands Marines have been posted to the Antilles for quite some time - there were there during the Cold War period and thus would have been there for the war start - they have been there to deter aggression from Venezuela since the 30's

Assuming a V1 timeline where the Cold War never ended they wouldn't have drawn down their forces there most likely

thus at war start you are looking at the 3rd Marine Battalion with three infantry companies (two on Curacao, one on Aruba) plus a company of local militia (two platoons on Curacao, one on Aruba) as well as a brigade of military police (they serve as security for both the military facilities as well as the border guard and security at the airports ) numbering around 200 or so men plus the 160 men of the Coast Guard

The militia platoons are trained by the Netherlands Marines and once trained are Netherlands Marines - thus you basically have a standing reserve Marine company to reinforce the 3rd Battalion plus reservists who used to be members of the platoons that could be used as well.

Given the fact that there were Soviet forces on Cuba and Soviet Naval units active in the Caribbean and the losses in shipping most likely the Marines stayed where they were - and the bases there might have become very important after the French invasion especially for what was left of the Dutch fleet (let alone would have been one of the last airbases they had left)

As far as nukes in South America in the V1 canon it does mention nuclear strikes against refineries in Venezuela if I remember correctly

The V2 timeline has more details including the short nuclear war between Argentina and Brazil

Keep in mind if you are looking at a 2013 timeline that force of Marines would now be only the single company at Aruba - the other two were stood down since the 90's

[Olefin]

I may have missed it but I have yet to see any reference to a nuclear attack on the Carribean, Central America or the north coast of South America in any of the GDW sourcebooks.

If the Panama Canal wasn't a nuclear target then I doubt that the French rocket launching site in French Guyana, or any local oil refinery or military base was a nuclear target either.

The Dutch forces in the Antilles are a bit on the light side. One Marine company, a frigate, a few patrol aircraft and some para-military and police. The Dutch also have their hands full in Europe with the nuclear attacks on the Netherlands and the French occupation of the Rhine. I doubt their will be any reinforcement, and Dutch forces in the Antilles will be low on spares, ammunition etc.

There is the possibility of some help from NATO allies in the region. The Americans are pre-occupied with their own problems but there is still likely to be some US forces in Panama, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Unknown if such forces are MilGov or CivGov.

This is a non-canon variant writeup from Orrin Ladd.

http://t2k.homestead.com/southamerica.htm

Also likely some British forces in the region. British territories in the region include the British Virgin Islands, Caymen Islands, Montserrat and Turks and Caicos. Also Bermuda in the Atlantic. British had forces in Belize until the mid-1990's; RAF Harrier flight, Army helicopters and some infantry (Belize still has a British Army training base). Missile Frigate usually based in Caribbean and certainly some para-military and police forces on islands, and probably some small military forces. Most of the rest of the English speaking Caribbean is also British Commonwealth and is closer politically and culturally with Britain than it is with America, although Jamaica is likely to be a hell hole.

.

The Caribbean could be quite an interesting force mix as you would have not only the French and the Dutch - who I am betting after the 1998 invasion are going to be going after each other for sure - but also as you pointed out US and British forces as well. Add in Haiti, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, possibly Belize getting invaded by its neighbors, Mexican forces, the Venezuelans, Colombian drug lords and you have one hell of a mix.

[lordroel]

The militia platoons are trained by the Netherlands Marines and once trained are Netherlands Marines - thus you basically have a standing reserve Marine company to reinforce the 3rd Battalion plus reservists who used to be members of the platoons that could be used as well.

You have 3 militias, the two smaller Aruban Militia and the and the Curaçao Militia (each 60 men large) and the larger Antillean Militia who when mobilized will be made up of eight company-sized security detachments each with company strength of 148 men (totaling some 1,184 men), this means that the 3rd Battalion has the backing of a light infantry size militia regiment.

[Olefin]

You have 3 militias, the two smaller Aruban Militia and the and the Curaçao Militia (each 60 men large) and the larger Antillean Militia who when mobilized will be made up of eight company-sized security detachments each with company strength of 148 men (totaling some 1,184 men), this means that the 3rd Battalion has the backing of a light infantry size militia regiment.

Roel did they have the ability to raise that many companies during the 90's in our timeline (i.e. not the game, talking about real timeline) or is that from your alternate timeline? I would assume many of them would be older reservists who had taken the training in their late teens and twenties and would be called back upon the war start

[lordroel]

Roel did they have the ability to raise that many companies during the 90's in our timeline (i.e. not the game, talking about real timeline) or is that from your alternate timeline? I would assume many of them would be older reservists who had taken the training in their late teens and twenties and would be called back upon the war start

Nope during the cold war it was for real, found it at this website called Netherlands Armed Forces ORDER OF BATTLE 1985 (http://www.orbat85.nl/order-of-battle/royal-navy/marine-corps/kmarns.html) forum where it says (copied) from footnote number 14.

The Antillean Militia consisted of local conscript personnel and a small volunteer cadre; in 1985 their authorised strength was 5/18/125 (148). The Antillean Militia were trained, clothed and equipped by the Marine Corps as "(conscript) marines, special services Netherlands Antilles" (mariniers van bijzondere diensten (zeemiliciën) Nederlandse Antillen). The three infantry platoons together formed an infantry company which in times of crisis or war would operate as security infantry in support of the marine units stationed in the Netherlands Antilles (2 or 3 Amphibious Combat Group). On mobilisation the Antillean Militia would fill eight company-sized security detachments for which Marine Corps cadre would be mobilised in the Netherlands (32 officers and 8 sub-officers in 1981

[Olefin]

That amount of troops, even light infantry, would make quite a force for defending the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba - the question again is if Curacao is nuked - if it is then you would lose much of those forces in the attacks (you would think several of the Curacao militia units would be destroyed in the attack) - however the ones formed in Aruba would still be around as would any moved to guard the other islands

Given that you could see that 1998-2000 may have been marked by several bloody encounters between the French and the Dutch - which could explain the reduced numbers of French troops on duty in Martinique and Guyana - i.e. the numbers are down due to fighting with the Netherlands Marines (both regular troops, current serving militia and the mobilized security troops) in the Antilles

would also explain the large size of the New American force they were building up to take on Aruba - they aren't going to take on a scattered force of police and militia they are going to take on what's left of the Marine forces there after the fighting with the French - which probably would still be pretty large by Caribbean military standards in 2000

[lordroel]

That amount of troops, even light infantry, would make quite a force for defending the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba - the question again is if Curacao is nuked - if it is then you would lose much of those forces in the attacks (you would think several of the Curacao militia units would be destroyed in the attack) - however the ones formed in Aruba would still be around as would any moved to guard the other islands

There are enough people there to requite, only issues will be the weapons for them.

Given that you could see that 1998-2000 may have been marked by several bloody encounters between the French and the Dutch - which could explain the reduced numbers of French troops on duty in Martinique and Guyana - i.e. the numbers are down due to fighting with the Netherlands Marines (both regular troops, current serving militia and the mobilized security troops) in the Antilles

The French would not weaken their garrison in Guyana, its located next to the former Netherlands colony of Suriname, there are then of thousands of people living their with either a double or single passport and the government at the time is friendly to the Netherlands.

would also explain the large size of the New American force they were building up to take on Aruba - they aren't going to take on a scattered force of police and militia they are going to take on what's left of the Marine forces there after the fighting with the French - which probably would still be pretty large by Caribbean military standards in 2000

Where is that mention that New American force where planing to take on Aruba.

[Olefin]

The Gateway to the Spanish Main, if I remember correctly (can confirm it when I get home later) mentions the target of the pirate fleet that is being built by the captive shipbuilders as Aruba. That fleet is being financed by New America

[lordroel]

The Gateway to the Spanish Main, if I remember correctly (can confirm it when I get home later) mentions the target of the pirate fleet that is being built by the captive shipbuilders as Aruba. That fleet is being financed by New America

Wel; any pirate fleet will get a surprise, the Royal Netherlands Navy with a hot or cold war with the French is not going to ask who they are, but starts shooting as soon as the come in range.

[Slappy]

I'll point out that while likely, it's not certain that there is a Franco-Dutch hot war in the Caribbean. Local commanders will have a lot of latitude given the distance from home, and it's possible that local detente or even limited cooperation is possible. Maybe not out of the question given an instinct for europeans to band together in the face of other hostiles. May even be situational island to island.

[Legbreaker]

That fleet is being financed by New America

Not exactly.
The New Americans have already backed Jones up with heavy weapons, mortars, small arms, and ammunition.The New Americans had planned to make an exchange of the Letter of Marque and Reprisal and the gold for General Cumming's daughter.
The New Americans are only interested in Loretta Cummings - there's no indication they could care less about anything else.
The document is basically worthless, and the gold (along with the weaponry) is just payment for the kidnapping.

[Olefin]

You are right - New America isnt directly funding the fleet - however the effort to kidnap the girl is providing the gold and the weapons that are leading to the creation of the pirate fleet.

And the target is Aruba

"The shared dream of both men is to sack and pillage the rich ports of the Spanish Main with Aruba, the oil rich island in the Dutch Antilles, being their first major target"

That right there makes it pretty clear that Aruba didn't get nuked. And that big group of pirates is probably needed because of the Marines that are still at Aruba - you don't need that many men to take on a platoon of militia and some local cops.

[lordroel]

That right there makes it pretty clear that Aruba didn't get nuked. And that big group of pirates is probably needed because of the Marines that are still at Aruba - you don't need that many men to take on a platoon of militia and some local cops.

So if Aruba is not nuked then any attacker, minus the French who do have the firepower will get a nasty surprise when they approach the island of Aruba.

Also i was think at the time of the war the Royal Netherlands Navy had about 22 frigates and 19 minehunters in service, what would the combat loss be for them as i would inmangen with the main naval base of Den Helder in range of French air strikes some of the Royal Netherlands Navy remaining schips would go to Aruba where they would be somewhat safer.

[Legbreaker]

Also i was think at the time of the war the Royal Netherlands Navy had about 22 frigates and 19 minehunters in service, what would the combat loss be for them as i would inmangen with the main naval base of Den Helder in range of French air strikes some of the Royal Netherlands Navy remaining schips would go to Aruba where they would be somewhat safer.

Why? They are still technically part of Nato and the greater war effort. It's quite likely they were put to work escorting convoys across the Atlantic, or in the case of the minesweepers, keeping the North Sea clear of mines. Those that survived to 2000 are very likely to be in the same situation as virtually any other ship of any other nation - out of fuel, very low on ammunition, and very probably nowhere near home port.

The navy possess perhaps the only units that survived the French "annexation" in something resembling good order - they're of little use repelling a land attack, and throwing them at the French navy would be too obviously suicidal to even contemplate.

[Olefin]

Actually having whatever navy they have left be either at Aruba or in British bases would be the most likely place for them - and if Aruba still has fuel (and oil rich pretty much says they do) then they would be needed there to defend the place - but most likely it would be a small force at best - probably at most another frigate and one or two of the minesweepers - which by 2000 naval standards is quite a force when you add it to what was already there plus commandeered private ships turned into patrol boats

[lordroel]

The navy possess perhaps the only units that survived the French "annexation" in something resembling good order - they're of little use repelling a land attack, and throwing them at the French navy would be too obviously suicidal to even contemplate.

So the remaining navy ships are hold up in naval base Den Helder which would have some of the last remaining Hawk and Patriots batteries the Netherlands has protection them.

The Netherlands has it own small gas and oil field located in the province of Drenthe, called the Schoonebeek oil field which has a total amount of 1 billion barrels and in peace time had a total output of some 3,000 barrels per day, also the Groningen gas field is there wich is the largest natural gas field in Europe and the tenth-largest in the world, so if the Free-Netherlands government mange to keep them running they have no worry about oil and gas and also something to trade with the German states if needed.

[Rainbow Six]

I always thought it possible that any surviving Dutch warships in Europe would have ended up in the United Kingdom, most likely Portsmouth.

I do have a brief write up of a possible evacuation of the Dutch Royal Family to the UK on my website.

http://www.twilight2000files.com/page64.html

[lordroel]

I always thought it possible that any surviving Dutch warships in Europe would have ended up in the United Kingdom, most likely Portsmouth.

Why Portsmouth so far i now Den Helder was not hit by a Soviet nuclear strike, it is in un-occupied Netherlands, home to the largest naval base of the Royal Netherlands navy and most likely the most defended place in un-occupied Netherlands.

[Olefin]

Why Portsmouth so far i now Den Helder was not hit by a Soviet nuclear strike, it is in un-occupied Netherlands, home to the largest naval base of the Royal Netherlands navy and most likely the most defended place in un-occupied Netherlands.

I think it may come down to how hot the war is between the French and the Dutch - from how V1 describes it the Dutch are actively fighting the French using guerrilla raids and other ways to hit them back - given that having their remaining Navy stay in Dutch ports will expose them to French attacks - and they only have so many SAM's to go around

whereas having them go to Portsmouth puts them out of danger from French air attacks

[Rainbow Six]

Mainly because I was writing an Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom at the time, not a Survivor’s Guide to the Netherlands.

But if you want a logical reason there’s very little to stop the French bombarding Den Helder until they have totally destroyed the entire base and every vessel there. Or if they don’t want to do that simply blockading the base and preventing any Dutch vessels getting in and out.

France isn’t at War with the UK so in my opinion realpolitik means that the probability of the French bombarding and / or blockading Portsmouth are considerably less than the probability of them bombarding and / or blockading Den Helder.

EDIT. Essentially, what Olefin just said.

[lordroel]

I think it may come down to how hot the war is between the French and the Dutch - from how V1 describes it the Dutch are actively fighting the French using guerrilla raids and other ways to hit them back - given that having their remaining Navy stay in Dutch ports will expose them to French attacks - and they only have so many SAM's to go around

whereas having them go to Portsmouth puts them out of danger from French air attacks

So you are saying have the remaining ships of the Royal Netherlands navy go to Portsmouth thereby reducing the risk of Den Helder which is not longer a major treat for the French of being leveled by them.

[RN7]

Mainly because I was writing an Alternative Survivor’s Guide to the United Kingdom at the time, not a Survivor’s Guide to the Netherlands.

But if you want a logical reason there’s very little to stop the French bombarding Den Helder until they have totally destroyed the entire base and every vessel there. Or if they don’t want to do that simply blockading the base and preventing any Dutch vessels getting in and out.

France isn’t at War with the UK so in my opinion realpolitik means that the probability of the French bombarding and / or blockading Portsmouth are considerably less than the probability of them bombarding and / or blockading Den Helder.

EDIT. Essentially, what Olefin just said.

Totally logical for this to happen, and the Dutch do have close military links with Britain.

[Legbreaker]

Ports in both the UK and Germany are quite likely. UK for the frigates (they're more likely to have been used for escort duty) and Germany for the sweepers. Bound to be the odd exception, but on the whole that's where they're probably going to be (if not sunk).

[Olefin]

Totally logical for this to happen, and the Dutch do have close military links with Britain.

Also keep in mind that the minesweepers don't have the range to make it to the US unless they refueled en route - so the most likely destination for them is going to be either the UK, Germany or Norway - and Portsmouth would be the easiest escape route

[Slappy]

Interesting article in the post today regarding Venezuela. Doesn't mean that this happens in a T2K timeline. But they don't need WWIII to happen to collapse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/29/venezuela-is-on-the-brink-of-a-complete-collapse/?tid=paid_fb_keywee&kwp_0=99490&kwp_4=489619&kwp_1=268845

[lordroel]

Interesting article in the post today regarding Venezuela. Doesn't mean that this happens in a T2K timeline. But they don't need WWIII to happen to collapse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/29/venezuela-is-on-the-brink-of-a-complete-collapse/?tid=paid_fb_keywee&kwp_0=99490&kwp_4=489619&kwp_1=268845

The only way that they can prevent collapse if there is a major war in the Middle East which pushes up the oil prizes giving the Regime money to spend.

[Slappy]

True, but oddly their dysfunction and inability to produce oil is one of the things holding up prices, at least on the margin.

[RN7]

British Forces in Belize/Caribbean in 1990/91

Belize
Army: 1,200 troops
1 Infantry battalion
1 Armoured reconnaissance troop (Scimitar)
1 Field artillery battery (105mm guns)
1 Engineer squadron
1 Helicopter flight (3x Gazelle AH-1)
RAF: 300 troops
1 FGA flight (4x Harrier GR-3)
1 Helicopter flight (4x Puma)
1 RAF Regiment detachment (4x Rapier SAM)
Royal Navy West Indies Detachment
1 Missile Destroyer/Frigate (Lynx helicopters)

[kalos72]

One thing that struck me, since my campaign is all in Texas, I have researched ALOT of the local resources and such.

Going canon, there are least 5 refineries still operational in Texas potentially. Oklahoma another 5 or 6....there are ALOT of refineries that did not get hit by nukes.

Why nuke Venezuela or Aruba or Mexico even if you left so much refining capability in the US itself?

[Legbreaker]

Don't forget that "With certain exceptions, only places that received 0.5 megaton of more" were listed on the strike list. There's nothing to say smaller warheads weren't used, or even conventional munitions - how hard is it to destroy a refinery when a simple match can set off a catastrophic event?
Sure, some may not be completely flattened, but given refineries were high on the list of targets, how much use are they really?

Look at the Ploesti oil fields and refineries in Romania. The Soviets have sunk a great deal of resources into getting that working again, even at a radically reduced production rate.

"The oil fields near Ploesti contain one of the few remaining refineries in the world, and are occupied by the last major tank force extant: the Soviet 3rd Guards Tank Army."
So the Soviets have devoted an entire Army to protecting the area, even while other areas were under intense pressure from enemy forces.
Can anyone say the Texas and Oklahoma oils fields and refineries would be any less important? Why haven't the Americans, the Mexicans or even the Soviets in Division Cuba camped on top of them as the Soviets have in Romania?
My opinion - because they're damaged beyond practical repair using current resources and manpower. That may change in the coming years, but it won't happen any time soon.

[kalos72]

IDK, thats a stretch to me. I think its just another glaring gap in the information they came up with to write the storyline. Even they say it only took out 60% of the US refining capability, why hit non allied sovereign nations if you left 60% of the US capacity intact?

The Mexicans/Division Cuba wouldn't bomb them, since they were in fact trying to annex Texas.

Unless your talking cruise missiles with conventional warheads, not sure if the Soviets even had them tbh, there are no other forces on American soil to hit them.

If, all those 130+ refineries were hit, all command centers and bomber wings/missile ranges, power plants (including nuclear) and major industrial centers I think we would be calling the game Gamma World not T2K. :)

[Legbreaker]

The KGB have had quite a number of sleeper agents within the US during the cold war. It would be a reasonable assumption for them to have had contingency orders to follow in case of war, with many of them assigned to sabotage industry vital to the war effort. Refineries are a prime target for this sort of activity - only takes a few small charges planted in various locations to take the entire facility out of action.
Keeping the refineries in close to pristine condition radically changes the game setting. It allows for the quick production of petroleum based fuels and large scale movements by large forces (see the destruction of the US 5th ID as an example of what would happen). The lack of fuel is vital to the setting.

The Soviets had a number of SLCMs during the 1980s and onward. These were/are more than capable of rendering refineries inoperable too. Then there's their strategic bomber force which could certainly reach some areas of the US (Alaska as a certainty, other areas depending on aircraft model and a number of other factors). These too didn't have to be armed with nukes.

They didn't have to hit every last possible target either. Just the threat of an attack would send the workers scurrying for cover and with only a skeleton staff remaining in most facilities (at best) accident would likely increase in both number and severity. Some facilities could in fact have been damaged just because there wasn't enough of the right people left to operate it correctly!

And you're right about the neutral countries. Why indeed bother with them when you're actual enemy still has the capability you're trying to deny them? The canon seems to support this by mentioning the attacks on neutrals.

It would seem fairly clear after properly assessing the information provided in the game materials that the US (and other combatant nations of course) have very little industrial capability remaining.

[kalos72]

Valid points for sure.

However, I think the "60%" comment proves that these 5 refineries in Texas and others I am talking about would not be hit. Not necessarily fully functional without the skills/infrastructure of course, but not destroyed out right.

Also, I think it gives some doubt to the extent of the damage of the neutral nations refinery capacity. Again, the "60%" comment lends to the idea of perhaps only the major facilities being taken out while other smaller ones being ignored or left to the chaos that ensured after the bombs dropped.

[Olefin]

FYI the Americans have camped out armies in Oklahoma and in California to guard the oil facilities - that's what the troops are doing in Oklahoma and Bakersfield - and also why there is an armored brigade guarding an oil refinery in Illinois

you still have refineries working in the US and power being generated - but its very spotty and here and there (for instance the nuclear power station that is still up and running in Colorado that they got the people to run the Corpus Christi when they got her back) - and you don't have a lot of reliable transportation to get from one place to another with what you do have

and as the game says most of what is being made is going for lubricants and to keep the few US armored units in business as well as provide a trickle of fuel to keep some transport aircraft and the like in business

obviously the US still has some industrial capacity remaining - the problem is getting the goods that are still being made distributed and getting raw materials and power to the facilities that are still intact - which is why the US pulled an armored brigade out of Texas to retake Memphis - they need the Mississippi to be able to transport goods

as for Texas obviously at least one refinery is still very much in business a la Red Star - again its just a case of who gets to have all that fuel


As for nuking the neutrals - the big reason is that they aren't going to hit back (with the exception of the French) - so hitting Venezuela or Curacao or Algeria isn't going to get you nuked back - whereas there is a point where either the US or Russians say enough is enough and launch everything they have left - and then it is Gamma World or Aftermath

[Legbreaker]

Valid points for sure.

However, I think the "60%" comment proves that these 5 refineries in Texas and others I am talking about would not be hit.

Where is the "60%" figure coming from?

[kalos72]

Howling Wilderness page 10, although I do have it backwards. It destroyed 60%, leaving 40% active.

[Legbreaker]

The nukes destroyed over 60%. The remainder was absolutely not left intact, and definitely not 40%. It specifically states in the very next sentence there was "other destruction".
It's always best to take what's written in it's full context.

[kalos72]

The nukes destroyed over 60%. The remainder was absolutely not left intact, and definitely not 40%. It specifically states in the very next sentence there was "other destruction".
It's always best to take what's written in it's full context.

Well, I am not going to go far down this slippery slope here but....

It specified a number 60%. Over 60%, meaning some portion of the remainder was functional. There is no "definitely" in that paragraph, except over 60% of the US refinery capability was destroyed.

And the very next sentence "This (destroying over 60% of the US refinery capability), in combination with the other destruction, effectively eliminated electrical power generation and industrial facilities." does not mention anything about refineries.

In context, using just whats written and not assumed, there IS something close to 40% of the US refinery capability that was NOT destroyed in the nuclear exchange. What the state of those locations is come December 2000 is up for debate...

[Legbreaker]

No, you're missing the point. The over 60% figure was nukes only. It does not include the other cause of destruction which as previously demonstrated are many.

[kalos72]

I dont think I am missing anything, just saying that although canon indicates that "over 60%" has been hit with a nuke, everything left is open entirely to our own interpretations.

There is no "definite" outcome for the other 40%ish...

[pmulcahy11b]

how hard is it to destroy a refinery when a simple match can set off a catastrophic event?


Actually, you don't even need a match. In the TV series Life Without People, it shows that just leaving a functioning refinery unattended will cause its explosive demise. The sections of a refinery depend upon raw materials moving along bit by bit in an uninterrupted chain -- Most refinery explosions have taken place because some part of this progression did not happen, sometimes only for a few hours. Things get backed up, concentrations of hydrocarbons occurs where there shouldn't be concentrations, temperatures rise, and BOOM.

It's a long, tedious, difficult process to properly turn off a refinery complex. And with war at full gallop, no one is going to want to turn off functioning refineries deliberately.

[kalos72]

And there are safety procedures for an emergency shutdown as well.

Again, not trying to imply that all refineries except the ones mentioned explicitly are up and running, but saying NONE of them are up is statistically improbable and canonically inaccurate.

Part of this game is about rebuilding, the US could not recover from having every single refinery in the country completely and utterly destroyed. Unless we make this MP or something...

[pmulcahy11b]

That could be an idea for an adventure. The PCs have to escort a technical team to properly shut down a refinery and take possession of any oil products there. Your opponents also want those oil products, or maybe to even take control of the refinery because they have a supply of oil to refine. And then the bosses tell the PC team to go get that oil the NPCs have...it could go on and on.

[Legbreaker]

...but saying NONE of them are up is statistically improbable and canonically inaccurate.

Not at all what I'm saying. What I am asserting is the 40% figure of surviving refineries is wildly optimistic given the multitude of ways besides nukes for these facilities to be damaged or destroyed. Even the 40% figure is not supported by canon (although 39.9% is possible, although not plausible).

[kalos72]

Ill agree with that, I say survived meaning not nuked. What happened after the nuke exchange is prime mission material there.

I will say though that I think it still brings a shadow of doubt, or at least possible mission material when thinking about the foreign national attacks. If they only took out 60% of their primary targets, surely they left something of the non allied foreign national infrastructure intact.

[Legbreaker]

And then look at it through the eyes of a PC. Nukes are known to be nasty, super destructive things, and nobody in 2000, not even those who think they're in charge (leadership of the three various US Governments) really have much idea of what's left standing over the hill, let alone across the country. Until proven otherwise, they could be forgiven for believing the nukes got everything, especially if they've spent the last couple of years in a more devastated region.
Even if it was known a refinery was still standing somewhere, it may well be completely impossible for, say, Milgov to secure it with the available manpower and other pressures.
A more local group on the other hand might be able to occupy it, but have no hope of actually operating it due to lack of skilled personnel, and possibly a real shortage of actual crude oil to process.

The same applies almost anywhere in the world.

[Olefin]

We know some refineries got shut down correctly - i.e. the one that is being put back on like at Brownsville is an example - and that the one in IL is still on line fully even as late as 2001 - although HW has it suffering an accident that reduces it to 1 percent of capacity by the end of the year (which by the way is still a lot of processed oil considering how big that particular refinery is)

and its not quite a life without people event - there would be emergency cutoffs and safeties used at most facilities - its not like poof and everyone disappeared as in Life Without People - also remember that its relatively easy to make diesel fuel which is what a lot of military vehicles can run on, let alone the grade of fuel that can be used to generate power - avgas or jet fuel on the other hand basically needs an intact facility

[Legbreaker]

We know some refineries got shut down correctly - i.e. the one that is being put back on like at Brownsville is an example.

We don't know that actually. We do know most refineries were destroyed or damaged by the Americans as they withdrew from the area. All we really know about the Port Isabel refinery is that it's in the process of bring repaired.

This isn't to say there aren't other facilities in better condition, however the problem is getting crude to them. If that were possible, nobody would be bothering with Port Isabel.

[Olefin]

That's why MilGov went thru the trouble of pulling an armored brigade out to be able to clear the Mississippi - they needed to be able to get oil up to the Robinson refinery in Illinois and using the river is probably the best way to do it

and that refinery still being in full operation (at least until the accident in Howling Wilderness) shows they didn't hit every major refinery with nukes - that's a 200,000+ barrels per day facility - definitely qualifies to be hit but yet there it is

I suspect the places with working refineries are going to be in Oklahoma (Ardmore or Wynnewood for instance) or Kansas given the presence of MilGov troops as well as near Bakersfield in CA - there are three small refineries in Bakersfield that are way way too small to expend a nuke on but perfect to provide enough oil to keep the reduced forces there are in CA going

[Targan]

MilGov may also have sent troops to non-functional refineries to salvage surviving difficult-to-manufacture parts to then transport to refineries that were more intact and/or were in better locations in terms of transport hubs, ability to be protected etc.

Also as has been mentioned in other discussions over the years, the Soviets' targeting systems were notoriously unreliable, and as the war progressed their ability to perform post-strike reconnaissance became more difficult or impossible, so some facilities like refineries may have been damaged by near-misses but not obliterated. If the Soviets couldn't get eyes-on but noted through other means that fuel production had dropped, they might assume the job was done. But in reality some refineries may have been put out of commission temporarily but been intact enough to have been brought back into production later, particularly if critical parts could be salvaged from elsewhere and the EMP-affected electronics could be repaired, replaced or bypassed.

[Legbreaker]

Same could be said for targets in Pact controlled areas too. Without satellite surveillance and communications, it would be very difficult to confirm the details of a hit. Sure you might have people (spies) in the area, but who's going to want to go towards a possible nuke crater? Orders be damned when it comes to personal survival for most (if not all sane) people.

[Olefin]

which is probably why Ploesti survived and was able to be put back into operation - my GM surmised that the NATO strike against the refinery had been one that was supposed to limit collateral damage to the city as much as possible (because Romania was a NATO member) and as a result they didn't destroy it, they damaged it enough to take it off line - and that it took till 2000 for the Soviets to get it back into operation

that's why our version of Med Cruise ended with a nuke strike that definitely 100% took it out for good and if it killed Romanians then it did - because they were looking to win the war in Europe one way or another and civilian casualties be damned