Soviet Vietnam...

[Draq]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but is the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan mentioned or addressed anywhere in v1? In RL it is often referred to as the soviets Vietnam, only hastening the decline of the union. When v1 was first written, the Russians were still there. And in v1 the Soviet and Warsaw pact don't seem to be on as much of an economic decline as opposed to RL, so would we presume they won Afghanistan, and did the us/allies give any aid to the mujahadeen as per RL? And what other ventures abroad would they be engaged in to keep the economy afloat? For example the ussr and China were competing alot in Africa trying to win aid contracts, and starting proxy wars.

[Benjamin]

The alternative history anthology, "Cold War Hot," (ed. Peter Tsorous) has a scenario in it where the Soviets win Afghanistan. If I remember correctly it had Carter win re-election and not send arms to the Mujahadeen.

That anthology also had two scenarios where in the US wins Vietnam. I especially like the one where Abrams goes on the offensive into the North.

As for other potential conflicts between 1986 and 1995...
China versus Vietnam: this is good one to have the Soviets supply aid to Vietnam thus furthering the Sino-Soviet split.

South Africa: largely ignored in V.1, it is likely that apartheid might come to a messy end in this reality

Ecuador versus Peru: near war in reality could see an actual war if the Cold War has been lengthened

There are any number of conflicts that could occur between those years that we luckily avoided in real life. See " Merc: 2000" (GDW, of course) and "Future Wars" by Col. Trevor Dupuy for some ideas.

Benjamin

[Rainbow Six]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but is the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan mentioned or addressed anywhere in v1?

The only V1 canon references I'm aware of are in the RDF Sourcebook, and even then it's brief.

[In 1989/90] the Soviet government became increasingly preoccupied with a rapidly modernizing China, their influence in the Middle East slowly waned. The war in Afghanistan dragged on interminably. Despite a steady influx of men and materiel, the Soviets were no closer to a solution than they were twelve years earlier.

Beyond that there's a few references to specific individuals / units having served in Afghanistan

[Matt Wiser]

The V.1 Soviet Vehicle Guide mentions several Soviet divisions as still being in Afghanistan in 1995, I believe.

[Draq]

I only ask because IRL the main reason the Soviet union collapsed was failing economy. The cold war kept them afloat. Either being directly involved in conflict, or supporting it somehow. Since Stalins restructuring and the industrial proliferation, the ussr was pretty much run as a war economy.

[Draq]

As for other potential conflicts between 1986 and 1995...
China versus Vietnam: this is good one to have the Soviets supply aid to Vietnam thus furthering the Sino-Soviet split.

Benjamin
It would actually be a continuation or a 'round 2' https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War

[RN7]

I only ask because IRL the main reason the Soviet union collapsed was failing economy. The cold war kept them afloat. Either being directly involved in conflict, or supporting it somehow. Since Stalins restructuring and the industrial proliferation, the ussr was pretty much run as a war economy.

The main reason why the Soviet Union collapsed was due to a loss of massive earning from oil exports in the mid-1980's, and this was engineered by Saudi Arabia. In the Cold War the Soviets only made a profit from the exports of arms and oil, but mostly from oil. In 1985 Saudi Arabia ramped up its oil production and into 1986 the cost of a barrel of oil fell from US $23 to under $12 and wiped out US $20 billion in Soviet oil export profits (that's about $60 billion in todays money).

There are two theories why the Saudi's did this. The first is that Saudi Arabia increased oil production to punish fellow OPEC members Iran and Iraq who kept exceeding their oil quotas for years because of the Iran-Iraq war.

Another theory is that the Saudi's made a secret deal with Ronald Reagan to kill Soviet earnings from oil exports, while America simultaneously embarked on a massive rearmament programme. The result would be the Soviet economy would go bankrupt as they would be crushed by loss of earnings and trying to compete with America. This is basically what did happen and it led to Gorbachev coming to power to reform the Soviet economy and system.

I'd like to believe it was the latter reason, and it is no coincidence that the Saudi's have become very reliant on America to under write their security since that time, while America has been very reluctant to punish Saudi Arabia for exporting Islamic extremists or criticise its medieval laws and social structure.

Win one for the Gipper!!

[Draq]

I'm just trying to find what kept the soviet union alive and somewhat formidible in the v1 timeline(or at least that's how it seems portrayed to me.), as apposed to the anemic shadow of it's former self we had in real life.

[Silent Hunter UK]

I would say no Gorbachev; his attempts to pull away the dead wood ended up bringing the whole house down.

The USSR probably could have kept going another decade or two.

[rcaf_777]

There are two theories why the Saudi's did this. The first is that Saudi Arabia increased oil production to punish fellow OPEC members Iran and Iraq who kept exceeding their oil quotas for years because of the Iran-Iraq war.

Another theory is that the Saudi's made a secret deal with Ronald Reagan to kill Soviet earnings from oil exports, while America simultaneously embarked on a massive rearmament programme. The result would be the Soviet economy would go bankrupt as they would be crushed by loss of earnings and trying to compete with America. This is basically what did happen and it led to Gorbachev coming to power to reform the Soviet economy and system.


Maybe it was payback for Afghanistan? After all were'nt the Saudi's and the US funnding the war there?

[Draq]

So the no gorbechev, some degree of victory in Afghanistan, and less oil from Saudi Arabia.

[swaghauler]

So the no gorbechev, some degree of victory in Afghanistan, and less oil from Saudi Arabia.

I use a HEAVILY MODIFIED version of the V2.2 Timeline. I allow the US military to degrade just like it did in real life. The Russians never receive the financial bailout from the West that would color Russian politics throughout the 90's. This means that a financially strapped Russia needs money right now. Where do they get it? Rebuilding Iraq. Rearming Iran and North Korea (in violation of UN Resolution). They get money arming South American drug Cartels and the Narco-Puppet States that the Cartels create. They sell arms in Africa and to India. All of these sales allow Russia to rearm with more modern weapons. South American drug cash saves Russia from collapse while making US streets exponentially more dangerous. Indian currency helps too. By rearming the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, Russia causes the US to "spread itself too thin." making the Twilight War possible. Just look at the real world conflicts going on in the Twilight War timeline:

Operation Restore Hope and the continued civil war in Somalia
The East Timor genocides (a US & UN operation)
Kenya/Uganda peace operation (chasing the US embassy bombers and Al Queda)
Kosovo
Battle for Grozny (I have the US supporting the Chechen rebels to punish Russia)
Revolution in Nigeria
The conflict in Cameroon?
Rwandan Genocide
The conflict in Yemen
The Mexican Drug War
The Guatemalan Revolution

When things really get rolling, The US, with its reduced force structure, is spread paper thin fighting in Africa, supporting Asia, dealing with a resurgent Iraq (backed by Iran at Russian urging) and holding back Mexican drug gangs armed with RPGs and automatic weapons. This worldwide chaos aids the Russian advance in Europe.

[Targan]

The East Timor genocides (a US & UN operation)


Not quite how I'd describe it...

[swaghauler]

Not quite how I'd describe it...

LOL! I agree I was a little "off" in my description. The Indonesian Genocide in East Timor that ended (sort of) in 1999. Both the US and UN were involved in peacekeeping operations there for more than a decade.

I also got the Revolution in NIGERIA wrong (writing Kenya). Who can forget the revolution(s, there were a series) that gave Africa one of the most brutal military regimes until 1999? The rise of Boko Haram is a result of the residual brutality of Nigeria's military juntas (despite a newly formed government in 99'). I have modified my previous post to correct this.

[Olefin]

Add in The Great War of Africa as well - i.e. the all out fighting in the Congo between a dozen different countries and factions - that was in the East Africa Sourcebook and is a real world event

[Targan]

LOL! I agree I was a little "off" in my description. The Indonesian Genocide in East Timor that ended (sort of) in 1999. Both the US and UN were involved in peacekeeping operations there for more than a decade.

I meant that kicking the Indonesian military and its militia proxies out of East Timor was an ANZAC operation. IIRC Australia invited the US to participate and was declined (although the US did become involved in peacekeeping there afterwards). Personally I think the East Timor operation was the Australian military's finest hour since Vietnam. There has been a lot of tension between the Australian and Indonesian militaries going all the way back to the Konfrontasi and the Malayan Emergency. In East Timor the Indonesians were left in absolutely no doubt whose military was superior. I would go so far as to suggest that the Indonesians and the pro-Indonesian militias were absolutely scared sh*tless of the Aussie and Kiwi special forces.

[Draq]

I meant that kicking the Indonesian military and its militia proxies out of East Timor was an ANZAC operation. IIRC Australia invited the US to participate and was declined (although the US did become involved in peacekeeping there afterwards). Personally I think the East Timor operation was the Australian military's finest hour since Vietnam. There has been a lot of tension between the Australian and Indonesian militaries going all the way back to the Konfrontasi and the Malayan Emergency. In East Timor the Indonesians were left in absolutely no doubt whose military was superior. I would go so far as to suggest that the Indonesians and the pro-Indonesian militias were absolutely scared sh*tless of the Aussie and Kiwi special forces.

Isn't everyone scared of anzacs?

[rcaf_777]

No just Targan

[RN7]

I'm not sure if this has been brought up before, but is the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan mentioned or addressed anywhere in v1? In RL it is often referred to as the soviets Vietnam, only hastening the decline of the union. When v1 was first written, the Russians were still there. And in v1 the Soviet and Warsaw pact don't seem to be on as much of an economic decline as opposed to RL, so would we presume they won Afghanistan, and did the us/allies give any aid to the mujahadeen as per RL? And what other ventures abroad would they be engaged in to keep the economy afloat? For example the ussr and China were competing alot in Africa trying to win aid contracts, and starting proxy wars.

As far as I am aware only two sourcebooks mention Afghanistan.


RDF Sourcebook

As the Soviet government became increasingly preoccupied with a rapidly modernizing China, their influence in the Middle East slowly waned. The war in Afghanistan dragged on interminably. Despite a steady influx of men and materiel, the Soviets were no closer to a solution than they were twelve years earlier. The gains that Moscow had made in the Middle East in the 1970's became increasingly difficult to maintain.

GENERAL MAJOR NIKITA KURDAKHOV: After an incident with the Finns in June of 1980, Kurdakhov was sent to Afghanistan. There, he and his KGB Border Guard Mobile Group, garnered a reputation for aggressiveness and brutality. Kurdakhov became involved in drug smuggling. He blackmailed his way into his next promotion. He left Afghanistan in 1985 for a tour of duty in the Border Guards Directorate at KGB Headquarters in Moscow.


Soviet Combat Vehicle Handbook: 1st Edition

15th Tank Division: A Category I Division from Afghanistan, where it was involved against partisans, the 15th was provided as a stiffener for the 40th Army and sent into action in early 1997 in north-eastern Iran.

54th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division stationed in Afghanistan at the start of the war, the 54th was ordered into Iran in late 1997 to shore up the crumbling Soviet position.

66th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division, the 66th was on duty in Afghanistan when it was called to form part of the 40th Army for the campaign against Iran.

80th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division on duty in Afghanistan when the war broke out, the 80th remained in occupation in Afghanistan. In mid-1998 it was sent to Ashkhabad in Turkestan.

201st Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division stationed in Afghanistan when the war started, the 201st was sent to north-western Iran as an anti-partisan unit in early 1998.

346th Motorized Rifle Division: A pre-war Category I stationed in Afghanistan, the 346th was used to form the nucleus of the 1st Army and sent to Iran in August 1997.

360th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division on duty in Afghanistan along with 66th MRD, the 360th helped form the 40th Army.

103rd Guards Air Assault Division: A Category I division stationed in Afghanistan, the 103rd was sent to Iran in early 1997.

There are no references to any of these divisions serving in Afghanistan in the 2nd edition of the Soviet Combat Vehicle Handbook.

[Draq]

As far as I am aware only two sourcebooks mention Afghanistan.


RDF Sourcebook

As the Soviet government became increasingly preoccupied with a rapidly modernizing China, their influence in the Middle East slowly waned. The war in Afghanistan dragged on interminably. Despite a steady influx of men and materiel, the Soviets were no closer to a solution than they were twelve years earlier. The gains that Moscow had made in the Middle East in the 1970's became increasingly difficult to maintain.

GENERAL MAJOR NIKITA KURDAKHOV: After an incident with the Finns in June of 1980, Kurdakhov was sent to Afghanistan. There, he and his KGB Border Guard Mobile Group, garnered a reputation for aggressiveness and brutality. Kurdakhov became involved in drug smuggling. He blackmailed his way into his next promotion. He left Afghanistan in 1985 for a tour of duty in the Border Guards Directorate at KGB Headquarters in Moscow.


Soviet Combat Vehicle Handbook: 1st Edition

15th Tank Division: A Category I Division from Afghanistan, where it was involved against partisans, the 15th was provided as a stiffener for the 40th Army and sent into action in early 1997 in north-eastern Iran.

54th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division stationed in Afghanistan at the start of the war, the 54th was ordered into Iran in late 1997 to shore up the crumbling Soviet position.

66th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division, the 66th was on duty in Afghanistan when it was called to form part of the 40th Army for the campaign against Iran.

80th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division on duty in Afghanistan when the war broke out, the 80th remained in occupation in Afghanistan. In mid-1998 it was sent to Ashkhabad in Turkestan.

201st Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division stationed in Afghanistan when the war started, the 201st was sent to north-western Iran as an anti-partisan unit in early 1998.

346th Motorized Rifle Division: A pre-war Category I stationed in Afghanistan, the 346th was used to form the nucleus of the 1st Army and sent to Iran in August 1997.

360th Motorized Rifle Division: A Category III division on duty in Afghanistan along with 66th MRD, the 360th helped form the 40th Army.

103rd Guards Air Assault Division: A Category I division stationed in Afghanistan, the 103rd was sent to Iran in early 1997.

There are no references to any of these divisions serving in Afghanistan in the 2nd edition of the Soviet Combat Vehicle Handbook.
Excellent, thank you. I thought there was some mention in v1 I just haven't had a ton of free time to 'find waldo'