The ANZACs in T2k

[B.T.]

:) If I didn't know you better I might think that you were joking ;)

:D

Made my day :D

[Legbreaker]

I need to remember to send them my invoice when this is all over. Five million sounds about right doesn't it?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I need to remember to send them my invoice when this is all over. Five million sounds about right doesn't it?
Five Million?
Are you giving the Tasmanian government a discount due to the current troubles?
I know you live in Tassie but this sounds like a case of "mate's rates" :p

[Legbreaker]

I'm not greedy and it just wouldn't feel right to charge more than $25,000 an hour especially in such trying times.
We're all in this together!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'm not greedy and it just wouldn't feel right to charge more than $25,000 an hour especially in such trying times.
We're all in this together!
:D
This made me laugh so hard I actually have tears in my eyes.
I'm still grinning like a fool while I type this!

[Targan]

Western Australia's hard border closure seems like a tough ask, given the length of the border and the kind of country most of it runs through.

[Legbreaker]

On the other hand there's what, three half decent roads that cross the 1,800+km length of it, only two of them sealed? Add to that the little issue of having to drive several hundred km through absolute nothingness before you even reach it.
Honestly, I don't know why they've bothered to "seal" the border given the NT has almost zero cases (27, 0 deaths) and they're pretty much restricted to Adelaide in SA, which might as well be part of Vic given the distances involved.

Interesting to note looking at tonights states, that out of a total population of around 25 million, there's 6,523 confirmed cases (3,819 of them recovered), 192 currently hospitalised and of them, only 60 in ICU.

Nationally....

And for this we've utterly screwed the economy for the next couple of decades? :confused:

Obesity sends more to ICU than this!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Keeping surveillance on the WA border?
Seems like a task tailor made for the RFSU, it'd be just another op for Pilbara Reg or NorForce.

[Raellus]

Interesting to note looking at tonights states, that out of a total population of around 25 million, there's 6,523 confirmed cases (3,819 of them recovered), 192 currently hospitalised and of them, only 60 in ICU.

Nationally....

And for this we've utterly screwed the economy for the next couple of decades? :confused:

Isn't this the whole point of broad quarantine measures (to lower the death rate)?

[Olefin]

Definitely off the original topic but an answer to part of what has been discussed recently here given the current situation

the question that has to be answered is if lowering the death rate is worth screwing over the economies of the world - and given the situation of the people who are dying in a straight forward economic analysis the answer is most likely no (and I am being Vulcan logical here in my analysis - i.e. the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one)

Which sounds hard and cruel but the reality is that most of those who have died or gotten very sick are past working age or had multiple conditions that meant they werent contributing to the economies of those nations

and putting millions out of work is going to mean that there wont be resources to keep the medical system of those nations going in the long run

FYI - before I get the hate mail I have five relatives that fit the bill for the above risk group so I am not being cavalier about this. In many ways we may have to start looking at this as casualties on a battlefield - you dont spend your time trying to save one man who is almost certainly going to die and let five others who can be saved die in his place

And my grandfather and grandmother lived thru both the Spanish Flu and the Great Depression and told me stories of both - so in many ways for me this has been family history coming to life

[StainlessSteelCynic]

With such a huge global population and with so many of those people living in close proximity these days, it was only a matter of time before some epidemic became a pandemic and started stripping away some of the population.

To be really blunt and brutal, the planet is over-populated with humans, the planet and humanity itself could actually do with less humans. Less over-crowding makes us less vulnerable to such epidemics in the future.
The economy on the other hand...

[Raellus]

Interesting takes, gentlemen. So you advocate the herd immunity theory?

Re "overpopulation", I'm reading a book called Homo Deus by Yuval Harari and he argues that the world is not, in fact, overpopulated. It is our collective obsession with economic growth (more, more, more) that is causing the problems we associate with "overpopulation"- e.g. resource scarcity, environmental degradation, cutthroat competition, etc. It's a very compelling argument. I recommend the book it you're interested in futurism (i.e. where humanity is likely headed in the next century).

Population density is a separate issue. Clearly, dense populations are more vulnerable to pandemics than less dense ones.

A "winnowing" is only a temporary fix, though. It didn't work after the 1400s, or 1918, or WW2. A permanent solution would require dystopian population controls. And that runs counter to the religion of economic growth. You can't have a neutral or declining national population and have economic growth at the same time.

But back to the the whole argument of, "only a relatively small number of people have died from this disease so let's ease off social distancing". It stems from a logical fallacy- it's a reverse Post hoc ergo propter hoc. In other words, the reason we've had a lower death rate than worst case scenarios suggested we would is because of social distancing protocols.

[CDAT]

With such a huge global population and with so many of those people living in close proximity these days, it was only a matter of time before some epidemic became a pandemic and started stripping away some of the population.

To be really blunt and brutal, the planet is over-populated with humans, the planet and humanity itself could actually do with less humans. Less over-crowding makes us less vulnerable to such epidemics in the future.
The economy on the other hand...

I have a real hard time believing this overcrowding when even the BBC says "Around half of the world’s land currently holds around 2% of the planet’s population, whereas only about 3% of total land supports more than half of humanity." [Article is https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150901-is-the-world-running-out-of-space]. Based on my experience growing up in the middle of nowhere WA, we had a small town of about four by six blocks and lots and lots of open space where people lived unless they were family most did not have a neighbor closer than a mile or so. Now I do hear this overcrowding bit from my coworkers and such who grew up (and still live) in the big cites but even then it does not take long to leave them all in the rear view.

[Legbreaker]

Definitely off the original topic but....

100% agreement from me, and my own mother is currently in the middle of a hot spot and she has an underlying breathing issue. If she gets it, she's likely going to be a casualty.

But, everyone dies. Logically she's well past retirement age and her body is showing it. Her current and expected future health issues are likely to be a drain on resources which could be better utilised if focused on the young.

Much better in my mind to let a few die while the population builds herd immunity and medical resources allocated to those with the chance of significant ongoing contribution to society. Herd immunity has a very long history of working. Vaccines are humanity's way of artificially creating herd immunity.

Now, all that said, I'm not proposing total elimination of distancing, etc. The young and fit should be allowed, or better yet, encouraged to get out there and expose themselves. The vast majority of those who have caught it to date have had very mild symptoms, many no symptoms at all (one of the reasons it's spread so quickly and easily - you don't even know you're sick!). A small percentage of those exposed will require hospitalisation, and an even smaller percentage may die, but based on our current knowledge of the virus, that's extremely rare unless there's an underlying condition.

Meanwhile, those at risk should continue with quarantining themselves until either a viable vaccine is available on a wide scale, or the necessary 60% of the population (60 or 80%, can't remember which) has developed antibodies and herd immunity is established.

The economy will still suffer, but nowhere near as much as it is currently. Recovery would also be swifter and much less costly.

As to overpopulated, well, SOME areas might be, but the planet on the whole has loads of room, and more resources than twice the population could possibly hope to need. In food production alone, the world currently produces two and a half times more than is actually consumed - the problem is distribution and wastage, as well as some groups not adequately preparing for leaner times such as during droughts.

I read some years ago that certain parts of Africa, which usually catches our attention due to famines, etc are actually amongst the worlds most fertile regions. The problem is they're TOO fertile and the inhabitants get lulled into a false sense of security by the overwhelming bounty around them most of the time. Therefore, very little gets properly stored or preserved and there's no reserves established for when the rain comes a month or two later than usual. Can't say if that's totally correct, but the surrounding arguments (which I can't remember the detail of) seemed pretty solid.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I have a real hard time believing this overcrowding when even the BBC says "Around half of the world’s land currently holds around 2% of the planet’s population, whereas only about 3% of total land supports more than half of humanity." [Article is https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150901-is-the-world-running-out-of-space]. Based on my experience growing up in the middle of nowhere WA, we had a small town of about four by six blocks and lots and lots of open space where people lived unless they were family most did not have a neighbor closer than a mile or so. Now I do hear this overcrowding bit from my coworkers and such who grew up (and still live) in the big cites but even then it does not take long to leave them all in the rear view.
There are a few issues with what's been said there though, such as large parts of the planet are not particularly suited for human habitation. And it ignores the rationale behind transport economics i.e. it's easier to distribute resources to 200 people in one place than 2 people in one hundred places.

And while parts of rural USA might not be particularly high in population (and I'm speaking as someone from a country with one of the worlds lowest population densities) parts of China, India and Brazil have problems with looking after their population because there's too many in one area for resources to be effectively distributed. Then there's countries like Singapore, Israel, Japan, Belgium, Kuwait and Lebanon with population densities too high for the country to support without importing large amounts of resources.

I am in complete agreement with Raellus that pop density is a different issue but I disagree that it's separate. For ease of resource distribution, it's much more effective to have the population grouped into large lots, obviously the larger your population the more densely packed they will be if you follow that model (i.e. centralization).

[Legbreaker]

And population density and distribution is at the heart of one of the biggest problems facing authorities in T2K.
It was mentioned a few years back (can't remember who) that somebody with a bit of knowledge of this sort of thing looked at the situation post nuke in the US and stated it was basically the worst case scenario - transportation hubs and energy production targeted while population centres (aka cities) spared. Moving the people becomes a less difficult task than getting the food and other supplies to them.

We're seeing a taste of that now. As an example, I ordered a few items about a month ago which in normal times I'd have received within 2-3 days. Two of the three items have been in transit at least three weeks, with the third, well, I'm told at least another month. This is due almost entirely to the distribution system and the stress it's under (MUCH greater demand as people shop online instead of in store, and many drivers, etc isolating themselves as well).

Also seeing a huge push to buy and produce local, which is another logical outcome of the T2k scenario. If you can't get or make something locally in T2k, you're just going to have to either look for alternatives or go without.

I've addressed some of this and more in the draft for the ANZAC book (if anyone's got a better title suggestion, let me know), with some authorities enforcing mandatory relocation closer to resources or to ensure there's enough manpower where it's need to keep things going.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

And this is definitely a problem for the modern world where for example food originates dozens if not hundreds of kilometres away from where it's processed and that location is often dozens if not hundreds of kilometres away from its final destination.

Like you said, it's been mentioned before about the benefits and problems of centralization. When it works, it saves a lot of wastage but transport is the linchpin. Once there's a disruption to transport, distribution basically stutters its way through the crisis until things get better, or, in the case of the Twilight scenario, it stops altogether.

I believe this is why GDW placed an emphasis on cantonments. Small population centres, easy to protect, resources kept at a local level means not extending your supply lines etc. etc.

[Olefin]

The cantonment system also maximized what fuel they had - i.e. they didnt waste fuel, especially alcohol fuel, trying to ship food hundreds of miles. What food was shipped like that most likely was very stable food that was shipped either by horse drawn wagon with cavalry escort or by sailing ship. Thats why control of the Mississippi was so important to MilGov - with that (once they retook Memphis) they were able to transport what was available using barges just like was done in the 1840's.

FYI places like Hawaii would have been not very fun places to be in T2K. Those islands have never been self sufficient in modern times in food. Even to this day a lot of the arable land grows sugar and pineapple and nuts. Not exactly a great diet. And while fishing can provide food you have to get the ships converted to sail. (Read the two Turtledove books on a WWII Japanese conquest of Hawaii to see the kinds of issues they would have had.)

[Olefin]

"But back to the the whole argument of, "only a relatively small number of people have died from this disease so let's ease off social distancing". It stems from a logical fallacy- it's a reverse Post hoc ergo propter hoc. In other words, the reason we've had a lower death rate than worst case scenarios suggested we would is because of social distancing protocols."

FYI the studies out of Israel show the same pattern of infection and deaths with and without social distancing - i.e. basically both have equivalent patterns no matter what you do - but one crashes the economy and one doesnt

[Raellus]

FYI the studies out of Israel show the same pattern of infection and deaths with and without social distancing - i.e. basically both have equivalent patterns no matter what you do - but one crashes the economy and one doesnt

Citations, please.

Also, look at the death rate in countries that were early implementers of similar protocols (like South Korea) v. those who dragged their feet (like Iran and Italy). It's not even close.

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

[Olefin]

Citations, please.

Also, look at the death rate in countries that were early implementers of similar protocols (like South Korea) v. those who dragged their feet (like Iran and Italy). It's not even close.

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

Ok Raellus here you go - also have a link to his paper which is in Hebrew and two articles that go into depth on his findings -

https://www.dailywire.com/news/israeli-study-suggests-lockdown-has-no-effect-on-coronavirus-timeline-say-israeli-space-agency-chair

https://townhall.com/columnists/marinamedvin/2020/04/15/israeli-professor-shows-virus-follows-fixed-pattern-n2566915

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

[Raellus]

Not that it will change anybody's minds, but for you non-Americans out there, Daily Wire is an "opinion journalism" site and Ben Shapiro, an "opinion journalist".

Here's the tag line from their Google search entry:

"Led by the incomparable Ben Shapiro, The Daily Wire is a hard-hitting, irreverent news and commentary site for a new generation of conservatives."

Sounds super credible when it comes to science news. :rolleyes:

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[StainlessSteelCynic]

Israel doesn't seem to be a good choice to test whether social distancing is or is not having an impact on infection rates simply because the country is small in landmass and large in population.
Even ignoring such things as traditional large families among certain groups being a potential cause of infection spread, the population density is 401 people per square kilometre and it's a country that heavily relies on imports for many resources.
In that situation, I can easily believe that social distancing may not be carried out as effectively as it should. Ideally, Israel should be a good choice to test the theory but in practice, I wonder how stringently they are applying social distancing rules?

And also Leg, my apologies as well for wandering off the thread topic :o

[Legbreaker]

Sorry, Leg- I'll stop hijacking your thread now.

-

Yes, it would be nice, and interesting as this conversation is, for the discussion to continue here https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=6055

[Olefin]

Not that it will change anybody's minds, but for you non-Americans out there, Daily Wire is an "opinion journalism" site and Ben Shapiro, an "opinion journalist".

Here's the tag line from their Google search entry:

"Led by the incomparable Ben Shapiro, The Daily Wire is a hard-hitting, irreverent news and commentary site for a new generation of conservatives."

Sounds super credible when it comes to science news. :rolleyes:

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Raellus since when is the Times of Israel a right wing news site which I also linked to? And I can post the English translation of his paper if you wish. Please don’t let partisanship cloud discussion of scientific papers here or elsewhere. And the professor in question is hardly a partisan figure who pushes junk science.

Leg I will post the English translation on the quarantine thread.

[Raellus]

I'd like to publicly apologize to Olefin for the sarcastic tone of post #272, and to Legbreaker for continuing to hijack his thread after I said that I would stop.

Gentlemen, I am sorry.

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[Legbreaker]

Gentlemen, I am sorry.

Meh, we all do stupid things sometimes and text only communication is very limiting when it comes to subtleties and tone - very easy to misunderstand the true intention of the writer. Forget about it. :)

Got my grubby hands on a bunch of government and defence reports from the late 90's and very early 2000's yesterday. Only had time to skim through them so far, but it looks like my writing and conclusions are VERY close to what the experts 20+ years ago were saying would happen if there was a conflict between Australia and certain neighbours. They've danced around specifically naming any particular country, but given the geographics and military capabilities involved, it's obvious who exactly they were talking about.
They've also mentioned a few locations of interest I'd totally forgotten about as being strategically important - will have to include them in the book!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Got my grubby hands on a bunch of government and defence reports from the late 90's and very early 2000's yesterday. Only had time to skim through them so far, but it looks like my writing and conclusions are VERY close to what the experts 20+ years ago were saying would happen if there was a conflict between Australia and certain neighbours. They've danced around specifically naming any particular country, but given the geographics and military capabilities involved, it's obvious who exactly they were talking about.

Not those bloody Mussorians again is it?
:D

[Legbreaker]

Not those bloody Mussorians again is it?
:D

Nah, they're further north. It's the Kamarians. :cool:

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Ah ha! Those sneaky devils!




On a serious note, I'd forgotten the Kamarians. I always remembered the Mussorians for some reason - old age dulling my memory, that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it! :p

[Raellus]

The focus of T2k is fixed squarely on the ground, but this may be of interest to our Aussie friends and/or aerial warfare enthusiasts.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35514/air-combat-tales-from-australias-storied-pitch-black-aerial-wargames

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[StainlessSteelCynic]

The Pitch Black exercises are sometimes co-ordinated with large scale Army exercises so that the various HQ elements can practice air-land operations.
I was in the land element of one such exercise in 1991 and it was quite a change from our normal infantry training environment to have mass air transport, recce, AEW&C aircraft, fighter, attack and aerial refuelling assets available (as friend and foe).

[Raellus]

Of note to some of the earlier discussion in this thread, it's interesting/ironic/uncanny to see photos of the RAAF and Indonesian Air Force playing on the same team.

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[Legbreaker]

Yes, there has been some military cooperation in the last few decades, a small fact which has made it quite challenging to explain the conflict between the two groups in T2k. Fortunately I suppose we had the independence of East Timor in the late 90's to use as a sort of template or what "could" have been. In that particular case however the Indo's went quietly (sort of) and there wasn't a global conflict keeping the attention of bigger players elsewhere.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Of note to some of the earlier discussion in this thread, it's interesting/ironic/uncanny to see photos of the RAAF and Indonesian Air Force playing on the same team.

-
Yes indeed. It was very interesting to see the lead photo of that article with F/A-18s and Su-27s flying together and NOT being the usual suspects, i.e. from the USA and Russia or Finland and Russia.

[Olefin]

Question for you Leg - does anyone think that the Soviets went after the Marsden Point Oil Refinery in New Zealand either with nukes or conventional weapons - it was built especially to provide the following for New Zealand - but most of what it processes comes from Australia -

around 85% all of the country’s jet fuel
around 67% of diesel
around 58% of all petrol
all fuel oil for ships

That refinery still being in business could keep the Australian Navy in business as to having fuel for whatever ships are still operational after their war with Indonesia

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Given that (as far as I remember), none of the books mention New Zealand in any significant manner, it would be up to the Referee to decide if such important parts of NZ's infrastructure are still operational.

[Legbreaker]

Given that (as far as I remember), none of the books mention New Zealand in any significant manner, it would be up to the Referee to decide if such important parts of NZ's infrastructure are still operational.

Not even in passing.

In the grand scheme, Marsden Point is a very, very small player. Sure they supply the bulk of the countries fuel, but when you've got a population of only 3.8 million (comparable to just the state of Oklahoma, 1/3rd of Belgium, or 1/10th of Poland), that's not exactly much is it....

Then take away crude imports (which comprise 100% of the oil processed), as well as the inability to adequately repair (lack of parts from other countries) the refinery should there be damage, normal wear and tear, or even just the requirement to change systems to allow for a change in what oil is still available for processing, and NZ is already in a poor shape fuel wise.

Then we throw them into war, as well as an obligation to support several Pacific island nations....

Does Marsden Point NEED attacking? No, especially since "All local oil production is exported as the New Zealand refinery is not suited to processing it."
Experiments into refining locally sourced oil did not start until 2007 from a field that wasn't even discovered until 2003.

Could the refinery be adapted to use the limited amount of local oil? Sure, but it requires equipment and knowledge which aren't readily available in New Zealand, and after about the middle of 1997 (the absolute earliest a need to switch may be identified) will be impossible to source from elsewhere.

Can the refinery process the local oil without the equipment and knowledge?
Yes, but at a greatly reduced efficiency which will greatly effect output (even in peacetime it wasn't sufficient for the countries entire needs).

So what does this mean for the RAN? No fuel coming from NZ that's for sure! (ok, MAYBE an insignificant trickle for the attached NZ naval and ground forces...maybe.)

On a related note, the Oceanic War (as I'm starting to call the Indonesian invasion) is still ongoing in 2000. More low level and less intense, but fighting is still happening, particularly in the West and Gulf regions and to a lesser extent in Eastern Sepik and Madang.

[Targan]

11/28 Battalion, RWAR, Infantry
Now if memory serves me correctly, Targan was 11/28 so he would be the one to ask because I"m working from second-hand info.
HQ, Support/admin/etc. & B Coy (I'm uncertain of this) - Irwin Barracks, Karakatta, Perth
A Coy: -
1st Platoon - Bunbury
2nd Platoon - Albany
3rd Platoon - Katanning
I think HQ A Coy was in Bunbury but again, I am not certain
C Coy: -
I don't know but a platoon sized unit was based in Rockingham and I think this might have been the core of C Coy.
D Coy: - Irwin Barracks
I am not certain of the setup with 11/28 because at that time, some Reserve Infantry units were being strengthened with one Regular Army company

? Field Ambulance (don't recall designation), was formerly at the Artillery Barracks in Fremantle but then moved to Irwin Barracks sometime in late-80s or early-90s.

Ummm... bloody hell, it's all such a long time ago!

To the best of my recollection, there was talk of 11/28 getting a Regular Army company when I was there in the early 90s, but I don't believe that had occurred by the mid-90s.

And I'm pretty sure the Field Ambulance unit was based at Karrakatta (Irwin Barracks) when I was there, but I don't remember the designation. 7th Field Ambulance?

[Legbreaker]

Ummm... bloody hell, it's all such a long time ago!

Tell me about it! It's a very different army to when we were in.

[Olefin]

The Korean Sourcebook is the first "official" mention of New Zealand as to any involvement in the war - even though its not canon frankly it should be - that is one place where I DO NOT agree with Marc Miller -

If you look there you have the 28th Anzuk Brigade that has two contingents from New Zealand

1st Battalion, Royal New Zealand Infantry Regiment

Medical/Logistics personnel

By 2001 that Brigade has only 300 men left so at most probably 30-50 NZ survivors still in Korea

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'm of the opinion that if New Zealand was able to keep the Marsden Point facility operating, they would be likely to keep most of its production for New Zealand or at least as a trade commodity. However, as we know, a large percentage of the material processed at Marsden Point was imported from Singapore, Australia etc. etc. so that means they probably haven't got much to trade with anyway.

Given that New Zealand imported a lot of items necessary for any modern First World/Western country (and not just crude oil), the Twilight War is going to leave them in the same sort of crap that Australia is in. However for New Zealand it would probably be worse because they are a small nation with a small population and it's unlikely anyone with the shipping capacity (aside from Australia) is going to risk sending ships for what would be a very minor trading profit.

I think further discussion is likely to get more in depth about New Zealand without a focus on the military side of things so it probably warrants a thread of its own.

[Legbreaker]

I think further discussion is likely to get more in depth about New Zealand without a focus on the military side of things so it probably warrants a thread of its own.

I'm happy to keep that discussion here - it is absolutely relevant to the ANZACs (at it's core really) and certainly relevant to the book (definitely leaning towards the title covering Oceania more than just Australia/New Zealand).

[Ewan]

I'm happy to keep that discussion here - it is absolutely relevant to the ANZACs (at it's core really) and certainly relevant to the book (definitely leaning towards the title covering Oceania more than just Australia/New Zealand).
Any idea when the book will see light of day. Thanks

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I think Leg had something ready for final drafts but then the talk of 4th Ed. came along and disrupted everything.
I gather that it's a hell of a juggling act trying to keep a sourcebook compatible across editions and it I reckon Leg is probably waiting to see what 4th edition does to Australia before he decides on the final version. He had said earlier that it would be compatible across 1st and 2nd editions but then 4th came along so (without going back to read this thread) I think he said it would be compatible with 4th but obviously we have to wait for 4th to drop before we find out what they did to the Oceania region.

[Legbreaker]

Yes, it was supposed to be 1st, 2nd, 4th ed compatible and probably still will be. It has indeed been delayed because of 4th for reasons I'm sure will become clear in the coming months.
When will it be published? I really can't say at the moment - it's very much dependant on external events out of my control.
Meanwhile, keep throwing ideas and information at me. Always room for more input.

[Louied]

Adf 2002-2003........

[Louied]

Some more Files I have........

[Louied]

New Zealand (I have posted this before in another thread)........

[Louied]

Royal Australian Artillery........

[Legbreaker]

All useful information, even if a little too modern for my needs (there was a fair bit of reorganisation between the mid 90's and the date of these docs).
Thanks.

[Olefin]

FYI there will be information on American Samoa and Oceania (at least in the area around them) in the next issue of the fanzine which has been delayed by multiple personal and business (as in where I work) issues

[Raellus]

This might be of interest here:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37904/the-untold-story-of-how-indonesian-and-australian-jets-nearly-came-to-blows-over-east-timor

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[Legbreaker]

This might be of interest here:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37904/the-untold-story-of-how-indonesian-and-australian-jets-nearly-came-to-blows-over-east-timor

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Thank you for that. While I wasn't specifically aware of this particular incident, I do have information on a number of other, similar ones. There was a real risk shit could have turned sour, something I personally believe certain elements within Indonesia were hoping for. Fortunately the Australians (and those nations present at the time) kept their cool.
The region could well be a different place today if they hadn't.

[Targan]

Thank you for that. While I wasn't specifically aware of this particular incident, I do have information on a number of other, similar ones. There was a real risk shit could have turned sour, something I personally believe certain elements within Indonesia were hoping for. Fortunately the Australians (and those nations present at the time) kept their cool.
The region could well be a different place today if they hadn't.

We would have flogged them, and frankly they had it coming.

[Legbreaker]

We would have flogged them, and frankly they had it coming.

We would have for the first week.
Right up until our logistics system shattered under the strain. It barely coped as it was with a simple peace keeping mission.

[pmulcahy11b]

This might be of interest here:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37904/the-untold-story-of-how-indonesian-and-australian-jets-nearly-came-to-blows-over-east-timor

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I'm sorry, but Henri's account smells like BS to me.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'm sorry, but Henri's account smells like BS to me.
Can you elaborate on why you think he's full if it?
It came across as reasonably plausible so I'm very curious as to how other people perceive it.

For some context, I know of somewhat similar incidents. One of my neighbours and I got along very well because we had many similar interest including time in the Australian military. His son was in the RAN and was on one of the ships serving in the Australian mission so while East Timor was going on, we discussed it pretty much every time we saw each other in the street.
His son relayed a few accounts about encounters with the Indonesians.

Apparently one Indonesian sub was tasked with keeping an eye on the Australian navy in the area and was trying to shadow our ships every time they moved into or out of the area. The Indon sub was detected relatively easily given the situation but it was persistent and tried to be sneaky when following Aussie ships.

Now, that's not as dramatic as an "almost dogfight" between the two air forces but it does show that while the Indons claimed to be withdrawing, the committed a large number of military assets to the area.
It was public knowledge here in Australia for several decades (from the 1970s on) that the Indon government did not like us and resented out presences in the region. Some people felt that the Indons were itching for a fight and whether that's true or not, they certainly did try some provocative acts (although they never quite crossed the line) through the decades.

[pmulcahy11b]

Can you elaborate on why you think he's full if it?


I know this going to sound like a cop-out, but it's a gut feeling.

[Legbreaker]

I know this going to sound like a cop-out, but it's a gut feeling.

I actually got a similar feeling. Henri comes across as trying to paint himself as more heroic than he really is.

[Raellus]

Not really T2k-related, but since we're talking about the Indonesian AF...

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37964/france-confirms-that-indonesia-wants-to-buy-rafale-fighter-jets

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[StainlessSteelCynic]

I actually got a similar feeling. Henri comes across as trying to paint himself as more heroic than he really is.

This actually seems to be a bit of a common thing with Indonesian military types talking about Australia. It's been known for decades that elements of the Indonesian government and military view Australia as an impediment to their domination of the region and they have portrayed us as the local bully and/or lapdog of imperialism/colonialism/whatever-ism.

I get the feeling that boasting about how they "stood up to the Australians" is part of the military mindset - it's certainly been played upon by their politicians in the past. Rereading the linked article with Paul's and Leg's misgivings in mind definitely makes me think that Henri is at the very least boasting (to enhance his prestige?)

[Legbreaker]

... Henri is at the very least boasting (to enhance his prestige?)

Almost certainly I would think. There may be some truth to his claims, but most likely he's....enhanced his role somewhat...

Meanwhile... https://en.antaranews.com/news/158385/developing-indonesias-defense-capability