Population increase and decrease

[dragoon500ly]

Here's a question...

In TM 1-1 the population die off is listed as 95% following the nuclear strikes. Ok, seems a reasonable percentage with the strikes and the resulting disruption that a TEOTWAWKI scenario.

So the question is, has anybody sat down and figured out a reasonable birthrate for the aftermath? Some of the online sources have a percentage as high as 50% for a sustainable birthrate, which seems to be very unlikely. I've tried plugging various historical birthrates and can't find one that seems logical based on a total disruption of society.

So any help is greatly appreciated!

[RandyT0001]

From historical trends as determined from world population numbers. Using world population numbers eliminates immigration as a factor in the growth of an area or a country. Only births minus deaths (from all causes - war, disease, etc.) determines the growth rate.

It is estimated that the total polulation of the world reached one billion in 1800. By 1927 the world reached two billion. This was a time where there was some pre-industrial farming, the establishment of industrialized processing of food, and the beginnings of industrailized farming with the steam tractor on the Great Plains of the US. I determined that this growth rate was about 0.55% for the time period.

From 1927 to 1987, a time of great advances in farming, industrial processes, medicine, refrigeration and freezing of foods on a industrial scale and appliances for the consumer, the population increased from two billion to five billion. This required a growth rate of 1.52% to achieve.

The growth rate of 0.9% is approximately the same rate of growth of the world population from 1800 to 1987.

Low growth = 0.3% (Three tenths of one percent)
Slow growth = 0.6%
Modest growth = 0.9%
Late 19th to early 20th = 1.2%
Mid 20th to late 20th = 1.5%

IMO, the high rate for mid to late 20th is primarily due to more clean food and water plus more and better drugs. Without modern medicine, no entity should achieve 1.5% growth rate.

[cosmicfish]

I started a thread a few years ago that asked the same question, and somewhere I have an EXCEL file that showed my estimates of population for each year broken down by urban, suburban, and rural. I was trying to work out migration rates between the three types of area when I stopped.

You're going to see a population decline that will last decades, as people who survived the initial attacks die to starvation and medical problems stemming from the lack of medications and care. Initial populations will largely flee to rural areas where there was less damage and more remaining resources, but will gradually return to towns or create new ones for enhanced security against the strengthening post-apocalyptic violence.

Growth rates will probably not get above 1% in any given year, given all the problems.

[dragoon500ly]

Sorry I'm late with this, but thanks for the info!

[dragoon500ly]

As part of my research into a larger Free State, ran some interesting numbers…

The states that make up the larger Free State are listed below, followed by three sets of numbers; the population as of the 2000 Census/remaining population following the 95% die off/ the new population with a 0.8% growth rate and 150 years of growth.

Alabama: 4,447,100//222,355//489,181

Georgia: 8,186,453//409,323//900,511

Kentucky:4,041,769//202,089//444,596

Maryland: 5,296,486//264,824//582,613

New York: 18,976,457//948,823//2,087,410

North Carolina: 8,049,313//402.466//885,425

Pennsylvania: 12,281,054//614,053//1,350,917

South Carolina: 4,012,012//200,601//441,322

Tennessee: 5,689,283//284,464//625,821

Vermont: 608,827//30,441//66,970

West Virginia: 1,808,344//90,417//198,917

The "new" population totals include only projected birth rates, and do not account for the influx of slaves.

Based on this, IMHO, I truly don't see Kentucky as the center of the Free State, more likely Pennsylvania/New York would be the new center, with larger populations, access to minerals, recovered technology and the extensive university system in those two states.

Thoughts?

[Matt W]

A couple of points

New York (and the North East in general) are more urbanized than Kentucky and Tennessee. I can see their death rate being HIGHER than 95%.

Recovery in the "canon" KFS may be better than you are assuming. They have had a fairly stable political and economic system for over a century and their medical/education system is good enough to train Emdees. I suspect that the population would be nearer 2 million than the approximately 1 million that you show for Kentucky/Tennessee

[dragoon500ly]

A couple of points

New York (and the North East in general) are more urbanized than Kentucky and Tennessee. I can see their death rate being HIGHER than 95%.

Recovery in the "canon" KFS may be better than you are assuming. They have had a fairly stable political and economic system for over a century and their medical/education system is good enough to train Emdees. I suspect that the population would be nearer 2 million than the approximately 1 million that you show for Kentucky/Tennessee

Good points

I went with the 95% die off as per canon. But I do agree that areas such as New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania would probably suffer much higher numbers, but as of yet, I cannot determine just how high to go, would a couple of more percentage points work? But examining the mineral resources, salvage (especially high tech) as well as the agricultural potential of the rural areas, are all factors that should be considered in going with a higher population base.

As for Kentucky/Tennessee, both states have large rural areas, but a significant amount of their populations are located in their metro areas. I'm comfortable with a 0.8% birthrate, plus note that, as of yet, I've not included any indentured servants of any slave population in the Free State population. How large a percentage this should be, who knows?

[Desert Mariner]

Good points

I went with the 95% die off as per canon. But I do agree that areas such as New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania would probably suffer much higher numbers, but as of yet, I cannot determine just how high to go, would a couple of more percentage points work?

My thought on this is to subtract the population of the major metro areas from the state total and then start your die-off/growth computations.

Based on the top 100 populace cities in the 2000 census this would reduce the base populations as follows:

State / Original Base / New Base
NY / 18,976,457 / 10,259,672
PA / 12,281,054 / 10,428,941
KY / 4,041,769 / 3,525,026
VA / 7,078,515 / 6,021,881

What formula do you use for growth, I haven't been able to duplicate your numbers? I have an Excel sheet (more than willing to post this if I can arrive at a growth calculation that everyone agrees upon) that allows for input of Die-off, Growth Rate and Time and then computes all of the states but I'm not hitting your figures with either population growth formula I'm familiar with:

Projected Pop = Pt
Beginning Pop = P0
Growth Rate = R
Time = T
e = 2.71828 (base of natural logarithms)

Formula 1 -- Pt = P0 * (1+R)to power of T
Formula 2 -- Pt = P0 * (e)to power of (R*T)

[dragoon500ly]

Ah! I inserted several events that I've picked up reading post-oops books, in the 25 year period following the war, I dropped birthrates down to 0.2% to account for the breakdowns in sanitation, loss of modern medical facilitates and the loss of modern medications.

In the second 25 years, I increased the birthrates gradually up to 0.4%, assuming the awakening of the Rich Five, the opening of their stockpiles and the reconstruction of an industrial base, allowing a chemical industry.

In the third 25 year period, I assumed that the KFS would commence a serious expansion into its neighboring territories, leading to casualties among its military, and lowered the birthrate down to about 0.35% to account for the commitment of large numbers of troops.

At the 75 year point, I started fudging numbers in an attempt to determine the numbers of survivors who joined the Free State in an attempt to better their lives. I've ran several sets of numbers before I settled on a "realistic" number of 400,000, scattered across the ten state region. Then increased the birthrate up to 0.8% for the next 75 years.

I wish that I could say that I was able to use more precise numbers to plug into a formula, but this scenario is incredibly hard to be precise. A nuclear-biological war that kills off 95% of humanity both directly and indirectly, even the declassified studies from the Cold War have widely different SWAGs in how the populations would be affected.

I'm going to stand by my numbers, at least for my version of the Free State, and I look forward to the feedback and opinions!

[Desert Mariner]

In no way was I disputing your numbers. I was concerned that I might have an error in my formula somewhere when I wasn't matching you.

The myriad possibilities in a TEOWAWKI scenario are precisely why I choose to use standard projections. Otherwise, I'd be calculating the population broken into age groups, assigning fertility, mortality and migration rates to each and it quickly becomes unmanageable (at least for me).

For anyone that wants a quick way to play with population projections, I've attached my spreadsheet. I did modify it so that multiple periods of differing growth can be run, similar to your KFS scenario.

There are 3 worksheets in the file:
1. Standard - runs projections based on your input of Die-Off % and then Growth Rate % and Time (Years) for up to five (5) consecutive periods. If Growth Rate is left blank, the corresponding population column is also blank.
2. Less Major Metros. Same as item 1 but removes the population of the top 100 cities prior to beginning calculations.
3. Top 100 Cities - This is just a list of the top 100 populace cities from the 2000 census and is used as background data for item 2.

[dragoon500ly]

In no way was I disputing your numbers.

Apologies, I've been dealing with the VA for the last three months, blood pressure is up and temper is just about non-existent! 😠

Looking forward to digging through your spreadsheet when I can get to a computer, these tablets are utter ....

[Desert Mariner]

Apologies, I've been dealing with the VA for the last three months, blood pressure is up and temper is just about non-existent! 😠


The VA has a way of doing that to all of us.

[dragoon500ly]

The VA has a way of doing that to all of us.

Too true!

On the other hand I've been amusing myself with Nuke Map and studying the effects of delivering ordnance onto the local admin offices...next up is a series on SLBMs!

[mmartin798]

As part of my research into a larger Free State, ran some interesting numbers…

The states that make up the larger Free State are listed below, followed by three sets of numbers; the population as of the 2000 Census/remaining population following the 95% die off/ the new population with a 0.8% growth rate and 150 years of growth.

Alabama: 4,447,100//222,355//489,181

Georgia: 8,186,453//409,323//900,511

Kentucky:4,041,769//202,089//444,596

Maryland: 5,296,486//264,824//582,613

New York: 18,976,457//948,823//2,087,410

North Carolina: 8,049,313//402.466//885,425

Pennsylvania: 12,281,054//614,053//1,350,917

South Carolina: 4,012,012//200,601//441,322

Tennessee: 5,689,283//284,464//625,821

Vermont: 608,827//30,441//66,970

West Virginia: 1,808,344//90,417//198,917

The "new" population totals include only projected birth rates, and do not account for the influx of slaves.

Based on this, IMHO, I truly don't see Kentucky as the center of the Free State, more likely Pennsylvania/New York would be the new center, with larger populations, access to minerals, recovered technology and the extensive university system in those two states.

Thoughts?

I just ran some numbers comparing 4th edition impact sites with a population map of New York by county. I made the assumption that only 1% would survive in the impact counties and 5% everywhere else. The numbers on this map were based on 2018 estimation with a total starting population of 19,862,512. After the applying the model, I get a postwar year zero population of 740720 for the state of New York. New York still has a sizable population, though it could be argued that a group forming in this are would be pushed toward Lake Ontario.

[dragoon500ly]

Depending on which nuke target list you use, I feel it is highly likely that there would a movement towards the western portions of New York and Pennsylvania. Maryland is a bit difficult with D.C./Baltimore, more likely a movement towards the northwest.

[RandyT0001]

I recently read a report that stated China's last decade's growth rate is 0.56% per year (about 7 million per year). This has already accounted for deaths but not necessarily migrations, into or out of China.

[Desert Mariner]

For anyone interested, I've overhauled my population projection spreadsheet to incorporate some changes:

1. U.S. population is now shown at the county/parish level. Canada is still at the provincial level.
2. Ability to increase the die off % in areas listed in the 3E target list.
3. Ability to define up to ten (10) separate growth periods with differing growth rates following TEOTWAWKI.
4. TEOTWAWKI can take place in any year between 1970 and 2019.

File is Excel 2013 format but it's backward compatible at least to 2010 and is about 1.2mb.

[nuke11]

For anyone interested, I've overhauled my population projection spreadsheet to incorporate some changes:

1. U.S. population is now shown at the county/parish level. Canada is still at the provincial level.
2. Ability to increase the die off % in areas listed in the 3E target list.
3. Ability to define up to ten (10) separate growth periods with differing growth rates following TEOTWAWKI.
4. TEOTWAWKI can take place in any year between 1970 and 2019.

File is Excel 2013 format but it's backward compatible at least to 2010 and is about 1.2mb.

Can you post the updated file?

[Desert Mariner]

Can you post the updated file?

File is too big for the forum and I didn't want to mess with Google drive if no one was interested....



Any feedback is most welcome.

[nuke11]

That is a seriously detailed spreadsheet. I still need to sit down and give it a whirl.

[Desert Mariner]

That is a seriously detailed spreadsheet. I still need to sit down and give it a whirl.

I plan on giving the same treatment to Canada and Mexico so there's data for campaigns in the border areas. Unfortunately, I haven't yet found countrywide statistics for all the needed years at Statistics Canada (plus their census areas seem to change constantly from year to year) and the INEGI site is primarily in Spanish (obviously) with very little English translation (that'll teach me to study German as my foreign language).

[mmartin798]

(that'll teach me to study German as my foreign language).

Deutsch ist eine gute Sprache. Wir sollen mehr hier auf Deutsch screiben.

[Desert Mariner]

Deutsch ist eine gute Sprache. Wir sollen mehr hier auf Deutsch screiben.

Mein Deutsch ist nicht mehr sehr gut. Aber seit 25+ Jahren habe ich dort gelebt.

[mmartin798]

Ok, maybe english is a better choice.

[Desert Mariner]

Agreed. Only time I really get to practice my German is when we visit my stepson and family in Wurzburg, which unfortunately isn't often enough.

[nuke11]

I plan on giving the same treatment to Canada and Mexico so there's data for campaigns in the border areas. Unfortunately, I haven't yet found countrywide statistics for all the needed years at Statistics Canada (plus their census areas seem to change constantly from year to year) and the INEGI site is primarily in Spanish (obviously) with very little English translation (that'll teach me to study German as my foreign language).

That information might not be available for Canada. 2006 thru 2011 the government had the bright idea to not want stats Canada doing a census. They also removed the law that made it mandatory to fill out the long form census as well. The information just might not be available at all.

You may have to look at each province to see if they hold the information you are looking for.

[Desert Mariner]

Thanks for that info, the more I search the more I think that I'll have to settle at Province/State level figures for Canada and Mexico.

[ChalkLine]

That information might not be available for Canada. 2006 thru 2011 the government had the bright idea to not want stats Canada doing a census. They also removed the law that made it mandatory to fill out the long form census as well. The information just might not be available at all.


The Australian conservative government tried to get out of as well for cost-cutting reasons. Luckily its requirement is included in our constitution

[Desert Mariner]

The spreadsheet has been updated to include data for Canadian Provinces and Mexican States. Also, since there's been a lot of posts regarding an Australian Project, data for Australia has been added.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1DuS_gNOfhgZQh52Mjc_pxVXakcFugJDb

Again, any feedback is most welcome.