The Paraguayan War/War of the Triple Alliance

[Raellus]

When trying to extrapolate what the immediate aftermath of a limited nuclear WWIII might look like, we often look at the more deadly/destructive campaigns of the Second World War, or cast our eyes further back to the 30 Years War, but maybe we should take a look at the Paraguayan War, a little known conflict that lasted five years and resulted in the death of over 50% (!!!) of the Paraguayan population, and up to 90% of its adult male population!

At the very least, it might help us understand what WWIII in South American might look like, politically, militarily, economically, and socially.

I think it may also help us understand what Poland would look like c.2000 in the T2K timelines, after American, Soviet, German, and Polish armies of various loyalties and fought back and forth across its countryside and through its towns and cities for nearly 4 years.

https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/War_of_the_Triple_Alliance

https://warisboring.com/the-paraguayan-war-was-the-dumbest-and-costliest-conflict-the-americas-ever-experienced/

[Vespers War]

Casualty estimates for the Paraguayan War vary wildly because Paraguay had some ludicrously absurd census returns both before and after the war. Officially, the population went from 240,000 in 1846 to 1,337,000 in 1857, which is impossible without incredible levels of immigration for which there is zero evidence; modern estimates are that the population was between 300,000 and 500,000 when the war started. Post-war, the official population was 166,351 in 1870 and 329,645 in 1888, which again implies a very rapid increase in population, nearly doubling in 18 years. And again, there's no evidence for large-scale immigration during that time.

Thus, estimates of the casualty rate for the war thus range from a low 7% (Vera Blinn Reber) to a high of 69% (Whigham and Potthast) depending on assumptions made by the estimator regarding the pre-war population and the post-war demographics and which figures they believe from the various censuses.