Twilight state of the mind?

[Mohoender]

Reading Marc comment about Vermont, I have thought about asking you that question. What, in your opinion would be the people reaction in several countries? Your own or else?

We all know what it is today, we know what the strong and weak points are or at least we have an opinion about it. However, what would change in case of the Twilight War. What alliance could change? what state could go against it's former ally? What could be the civilians position after the initial panic and despair?

What would be the effect on US? Ok, we all know what it would be concerning Civgov and Milgov but what about individual states? So far, the Americans have been talking as a nation here, but I know that people from specific states don't always like people from others states. Therefore, what if the federal states is gone. I try to make myself clear. Most French would think of Americans as one people. I don't really, I think of US as one nation with at least 50 people. 50 people with common values but what if that common cement is gone?

Else:
What about Italy, assuming that the north doesn't really like the south?
What about Portugal, Spain...
What about Japan and Okinawa?
What about Germany?

....

[kato13]

As much as we in the US joke about state rivalries, I don't see state borders meaning as much as the urban/rural one. I think that someone from rural Illinois is going to feel more kinship to someone from rural Iowa or Wisconsin that they would towards an urban dweller who happens to be from the same state.

[headquarters]

I see Scandinavian countrie sgoing the way of isolation as far as possible .

Sure , if the Russians act up we would need a strong international stance as they are our neighbours - but say a chaos erupted due to several more limited conflicts and the ensuing economical collapse - Scandinavia -especialy Norway/Sweden would have electricity ,perhaps petrol,maybe enough food to last us as well as being far from the center of trouble ,central Europe,US ,UK ,central Russia etc .

I could see us -small and non capable military as we are - to try and lock down and try to ride it out with a situation bordering on martial law or fully under martial law.

We are unused to war and not quick to take up arms -unless invasion of Norway proper looms. If control ceases in our major partners ,US and parts of the EU -we would hole up is my guess.

I follow kato on the rural/metro divide line and think that those with farms,fisheries,woods etc would be loathe to let us computer dabbling,tertiary services types get their food .A sort of re distribution or massive robbery if you are a farmer would go down using the law as a cover to appropriate whatever food available to keep the masses at bay in the cities.Nationalization of farm land as a temporary measure would take effect ,reloaction of populace because of workforce issues an supply issues would occur too.

I see lots of potential for what historians later would call a low intensity civil war due to the troubles these harsh measures would cause , but I cant see a deeper split leading to a formation of competing political entities in Scandinavia .Al lin my humble opinion of course -and a word of warning to the Swedes -try to come back here and we got no candy for ya!

:D

But as I said -we have 5 million people and app. 1,5 million firearms .Any heavy handed use of authority would escalate into violence at some point .Not a full blown civil war ,but certainly resistance,self defense against criminal activity wether it be perpetrated by goverment agencies or civilians and power struggle locally and possibly nationally .Though no full blown civil war as I said .

[Mohoender]

As much as we in the US joke about state rivalries, I don't see state borders meaning as much as the urban/rural one. I think that someone from rural Illinois is going to feel more kinship to someone from rural Iowa or Wisconsin that they would towards an urban dweller who happens to be from the same state.

That's exactly what I'm looking for.:)

For France, you can find the same kind of reactions. I'm currently living in a "Canton" (similar to a county) where you'll find allied villages and ennemy villages. While working in another area, people from one valley wouldn't care about what was going on in the next one. Anyway, In France, the term Allien would apply to anyone not living in your village/town.

In the case of T2K you would find a few more specific situations: Corsica, Britany, and the Basque region. Corsica and the south-east of France could exactly become what it is described per cannon. Britany, would become semi-independent. At last, the Basque could join with the Basque of Spain. Nice could become independent again.

Finally, you'll probably find a number of interregional tensions such as between Alsace and Lorraine (they almost hate each other).

However, you can forget about the mountainous regions entering open rebellion as there are no point for this to happen.

For France, I could imagine (especially if it's lightly hit) that a central government remain but with the local authorities getting more power that what they do today.

[Slappy]

I think there are still reasonable regional rivalries in the US, but not many that could be acted on in the conditions of the twilight war. Local issues, not state issues will dominate in most areas. This will lead to the rural/urban splits mentioned and will also make statewide organization against a neighboring state nearly impossible for some time.

I do have some ideas though. I think the Texans, with their history of having been an independent country, are the most likely to declare indepenance again if they have the chance and see a benefit. I also think the bonds of the old Confederacy are stronger than most if only as a propaganda technique to keep the people in line.

I also think that California and the other Pacific states will go largely insular, if only for reasons of geography. California is separated from the rest of the country by fairly serious deserts and mountains in most areas. They are crossable using pre-industrial means (Lewis and Clark did it and the Native Americans for centuries) but it would be difficult to maintain reliable communication/trade and effective control across the rockies and the desert southwest. Even within California LA and San Francisco are separated by 500 miles of coast with nearly no full time inhabitants. Similarly the 500 miles from SF to Portland Oregon is largely empty. I would expect that the areas around these cities would form independent survival strategies. Northern and Southern Californians (NoCal and SoCal) already despise each other. This would be complicated in the south by the fact that LA will be largely uninhabitable desert without modern irrigation technology.

[jester]

Slappy, I will go a bit further reguarding California. And this is something that I spoke with durring the elections.

We have some sizable populations in our urban areas. Alot of these people are the welfare class and illegals and other urban poor. I made the comment with a freind in Washington state election evening.

We the NORMAL PEOPLE, are forced to go along with the masses and their will dragged along by the will of the urban megatropolises. And this will drag the folks in the country and suburbs along that route too against their will and beleifs.

Now, with that being said, California is a widly spaced state. We do have a bit of distance to our East, however, we have several major highways that go north to South, a couple go from Mexico to Canada. The 101 and the 5, and the 22 goes a fair piece.

As for East to West we have the I-15 which goes straight to Vegas <another place that will crumble with the falling of the infrastructure. I beleive Vegas in the middle of the desert with its massive population that is based on entertainment would turn into something WORSE than Armies of the Night or City of the Angels, although, they may have lighting if the Hoover Damn remains intact> And then we have the I-10 which does to almost Mexico and then cuts East into Arizona.

As for Southern California, I agree we will have an urban vs Country folks war, but I will say it will be more. Not just the rural folks, it will be more Inner City verses the Suburbs.

I also think it would be a big race issue in Cali. One just needs to look at the rallies they had a couple years ago, or look on the roads and you will see countless vehicles with mexican flag stickers. I can see it turning into something akin to Yugoslavia in California. Drought, social unrest and ethnic tensions and fighting for the limited resources available for the survivors. And a total disreguard for what is left of government as they have failed miserably.

I can see catonments based on race and social class. And some raids and clashes between groups. Inner city types with gang members forming a nucleus of their fighters would always venture out to raid the catonments in the rural and suburbs, and those from the suburbs and rural areas will basicaly shoot anyone of city dwellers on sight and even conduct punative raids on the urban dwellers and camps of bandits and groups of mexicans.

Thats what I would guess would happen.

[kato13]

I kind of thought there might be 4 divisions but I wanted to keep things simple with the two division I mentioned above. Here is how i see it breaking down.

Urban Lower Class
Urban Middle/Upper Class
Suburban
Rural

My expectation is that after a bad event each would look towards the areas inhabited by the ones listed below them for materials, support and refuge. How violent the confrontations between the groups are depends on the severity of the incident. In the T2k world I could easily see it breaking down similar to (or worse than) Yugoslavia.

[Targan]

I also think that California and the other Pacific states will go largely insular, if only for reasons of geography. California is separated from the rest of the country by fairly serious deserts and mountains in most areas. They are crossable using pre-industrial means (Lewis and Clark did it and the Native Americans for centuries) but it would be difficult to maintain reliable communication/trade and effective control across the rockies and the desert southwest.
I can totally relate to this. One look at a map will show you how isolated my city is from Australia's other big cities. Thousands of miles of desert to the east. After the Twlight war the rail line would be the best way to reach the rest of Australia and if that wasn't an option it would have to be by ship. Or maybe camel train like the good ole days (yes Australia used to use camel caravans extensively).

[Mohoender]

Thanks guys

Keep that coming you are giving here some insights i had no way to find by myself. That helps a lot.:cool:

[TiggerCCW UK]

As far as Northern Ireland goes, I never agreed with the canon view. According to the UK Survivors guide another civil war broke out in Ireland with the south invading the north. I don't find this in any way likely as the South have jealously guarded their neutrality in previous wars and are unlikely to violate this by invading British territory. Also it states in the canon that the IRA was active during the war - this goes against their activities in WW2, when they declared a ceasefire. I believe that in the event of the Twilight war occuring they would have done the same as they realise that the British govt would be more likely to act with greater force against them to eliminate a potential threat. Intel here on leading members of the paramilitaries on both sides was, in more recent years ('80's onwards), pretty thorough and I believe that both sides would call a truce. There is always the risk of splinter elements causing trouble, but I think the government would have brought internment back in very quickly, which would minimise this.

As far as the general population goes, I think they would have realised that they've more in common than they have differences. Possibly this is wishful thinking on my part as I am not in any way sectarian myself - I'm in a mixed prot/cath marriage, but for many years the vast majority of the population here have just wanted to live in peace. This belief is also based on the historical precedent of WW2 when the population as a whole pulled together, notable examples including during the blitz on Belfast when fire brigades from the south came north to help fight the fires in Belfast.

It should also be noted that NI is the only part of the UK that there was a draft enacted in either the first or second world war as there was a sufficient level of voluntary enlistment.

Overall, beyond some isolated incidents I think that people will attempt to get on with their lives as best they can and that, on local levels particularly in the border areas, there will be a degree of cooperation. I don't mean to make Ireland sound like a post war utopia, but I don't think it will be as bad as GDW may have made it look. Life will still be a lot tougher than it was pre war, but I don't envision a full on civil war. All IMHO of course!

[Slappy]

Jester -

I see your point on CA highways (I used to drive them a fair bit), but I think a lot of them would be nearly unusabel in a T2K world. The 15 to Las Vegas is 250 miles across the Mojave and mountains. There is nearly no water out there and daytime temperatures in the valleys can get to 110F in the summer. Some hardy souls might get through, but regular contact or the idea that a political organization would exist across that border is unlikely.

The routes between northern and southern CA are a bit better, but still problematic. The 5 runs through the central valley desert and would have many of the issues that the 15 would. You could take 101 along the coast and have a somewhat better time of it, but that's a long and winding road. Much of it is built on the cliffs over the Pacific and would have been washed out. That would be my route as I could expect some water and possibly some supplies at places like San Luis Obispo and Big Sur, but it would be a hell of a trip for regular convoy traffic.

[jester]

Regular daily traffic, no of course not. But it is still a line of communication. And lets not forget that the 15 is a route that many early settlers took on foot and in wagons, so I can see caravans making the route.

As for the I-5, easily done, that is a desert? Dang never even thought of it as such. Again it could be done easier than the 15.

They simply put up watering stations. At wells, as well as water tanks and have a team of mules like the old Borax mule teams, but instead of hauling ore, they haul water tanks to refile the watering stations.

Then the state/gov or whatever entity charges a toll for using that section of the 15 to include the use of water, which is the main reason for the toll, they pay by the head. And the local government entity bars anyone from traveling who does not have a good working vehicle with the fuel and water to make the trip.

And we could see a monthly caravan, actualy 2 caravans one going each way transering mail, the ocasional passenger and trade goods. Again it would be similiar to the Butterfield and Wells Fargo stage lines that plied their way between San Bernardino and Arizona and Utah in the 19th Century

As for coastal travel, I would not even thing the Pacific Coast Highway would be totaly passable after 3 years due to flooding, erroson and rockslides. Large segements would surely be open and passable, but the entire route hardly. Some areas near communities whose interest would be best suited in keeping it open would maintain it, but other sections would fall into disrepair.

But, you forget 1 other route,

A sea route! That was the normal means of transport well into the early years of the 20th century. Larger sailboats 30+ feet would be a easy rapid and realativly safe transportation route up and down the coast. It is not that hard with working compass, modern charts and if one is warry of storms taking care to avoid sailing to far out to sea or durring storm season.

[Rainbow Six]

Overall, beyond some isolated incidents I think that people will attempt to get on with their lives as best they can and that, on local levels particularly in the border areas, there will be a degree of cooperation. I don't mean to make Ireland sound like a post war utopia, but I don't think it will be as bad as GDW may have made it look. Life will still be a lot tougher than it was pre war, but I don't envision a full on civil war. All IMHO of course!

Tigger, lots of good points in your post.

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere, but would appreciate the "local" point of view...

I'll post my thoughts on Scotland later in the week when I have a little more online time...

[Marc]

Ei! Great thread! It seems as we could built a very plausible Twilight new setup based on our opinions about our own countries

About the situation of Spain in the Twilight v2.2 setup, I think that the situation described in 2000 seems plausible. In the first stages of the war, I would say that some of the Western European Governments, Spain among them, would wield the argument that puts Germany as the first aggressor, and that the NATO treaty is essentially a defensive contract, extrapolating the immediate argument that they do not consider themselves tied to the unilateral offensive of Germany against Poland. I think that Spain would be one of the reluctant countries that would not abandon immediately NATO treaty. In v2.2 timeline, Canadian, USA and British forces only enter the war after Germany finds itself in trouble in Poland. There’s a period of time where Germany is fighting alone. I could imagine that this period is the crucial time of the desperate diplomatic efforts, where the Western European countries decide what to do. The result of these diplomatic games, talking about Spain, can be unclear. I would venture that probably Spain would enter the war with a right-wing government and would try to remain neutral with a left-wing government (in both cases I’m talking about moderate parties). If entering the war, I would not be in an unconditional way. I don’t see Spanish units in Poland. I tend to think that Spanish Army would remain in defensive positions, its direct implication only motivated by a direct aggression against a NATO country not implied in the offensive in Poland or any suspicious movement in the Mediterranean theater. In this last case, only the units directly attached to the FAR (Fuerzas de Acción RÃÂ*pida, Rapid Action Forces) would be deployed out of the borders. So, the participation in an operation like “Chartaginianâ€Â� addressed to deactivate the Italian threat against NATO convoys would be plausible, because the airborne and air mobile brigades are part of the FAR.

But all this would be done at a tremendous political cost for the government. In Spain, the political map is dominated by two big parties, a moderate right wing party (which was in the government by the time of the Twilight war, accordingly to v2.2 timeline), and a socialist, moderated left-wing party (currently in the government). Normally, both of them must rely on pacts with minority nationalist parties (Basques, Catalans, Galicians), that I suppose would be very reluctant to an implication with a new European war. So, we can suppose that the Spanish government would not leave NATO in 1996, but the political situation in Spain would be really hot. Regardless of the political position of the government and their obligations towards any NATO partners, without any external aggression against Spain, the population would be mostly against the war. And then, the nukes... Ports, petrochemical facilities, and possible naval bases. One single nuke in a important population center probably would overwhelm the whole medical-care and emergency system of the country. But the nukes will come one by one, accordingly to Twilight setup. Riots against the government would erupt after the first nuke, blaming the government for the deaths caused by our implication in a foreign war. Then, with the fall of the rest of the nukes, all central authority would cease to have any kind of control over the situation, for a time. A military self-imposed emergency government is probable. After all, the history of Spain is plenty of generals and other military leaders ready to save the country. But nobody would obey a central government without capacity to bring help and guarantee a certain degree of control. So, the Army will try to take command of the units not detached out of national territory, trying to exercise immediate control over the area where these units are based. With the lack of resources, cantonments are a plausible option, perhaps established in rural areas and trying to control the flow of refugees from the cities. Most of these units are not based in the territories that traditionally have more wishes to independence (Catalonia and Basque Country). So these territories would have less immediate help from the army. If we add to this that a good part of the industrial areas are in this zones (with the corresponding prize in tactical nukes) their old rejection towards any central government would grow. Despite the traditional strong desire of the military commanders to keep Spain unified, the surviving units, perhaps with an important number of desertions, will have their hands full in the immediate territories where the units were previously based. So, by 2000 AD I see some military-controlled areas in the central zone with the rest of the Spanish territory organized at municipal level, perhaps with the surviving traces or the new initiatives toward regional governments. Neither Catalans nor Basques will be thinking of their independence at the beginning. We’ll just be trying to survive. But if we manage to survive alone a few years and emerge beyond the local government without help, the future Spain will meet two independent regions “de facto� . Then, who knows?

After the first nukes, the exodus from cities to rural areas would begin. At first, the rural villages would take in familiars and friends from the cities. After this first stage, the councils of towns and village probably will close their doors to the outsiders. In a country with a severe legislation about the possession of firearms, the most part of will be under military or police control. So, at least in the beginning, civilians would be virtually unprotected against the abuse of force by any of these two groups. An organized military unit could easily establish an independent cantonment if decide no to answer the call of the emergency government.

Our moderate climatology would be an advantage in winter, and a good part of the country would remain untouched. But by 2000 the country will be disunited, thought is possible that some efforts to regain the unified control over most of the territory would have begun. Probably Balearic Islands and Canary Islands would be independent.

[TiggerCCW UK]

Tigger, lots of good points in your post.

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere, but would appreciate the "local" point of view...

I'll post my thoughts on Scotland later in the week when I have a little more online time...

Likewise I'll try and get something posted on that when I've a bit more time. Quick point on the name of the regiment though - from 1992 it was changed to the Royal Irish Regiment following the merger of the UDR and the Royal Irish Rangers.

[Fusilier]

What are your thoughts on the transfer of all regular troops to Germany and their replacement by a fully mobilised Ulster Defence Regiment as per canon? It seems to me to be almost inevitable, as HMG wont want to keep a Division's worth of trained troops in NI when there is a greater need for them elsewhere,

I don't have my books handy, but isn't that what happened? Not right away, but I seem to recall reading they did part way through... or was that something non-canon?

[Rainbow Six]

I don't have my books handy, but isn't that what happened? Not right away, but I seem to recall reading they did part way through... or was that something non-canon?

You're right, that's what happened in canon...but I'd be interested in Tigger's thoughts on it...

Re: the changing of the name to the Royal Irish Regiment, I always tend to stick with pre options for changes when it comes to unit names. Likewise, as I mostly go with the version 1 timeline, I still have the Troubles as on going, with no Good Friday agreement.

[Fusilier]

Oh I get you. I misunderstood, sorry.

[TiggerCCW UK]

Re: the changing of the name to the Royal Irish Regiment, I always tend to stick with pre options for changes when it comes to unit names. Likewise, as I mostly go with the version 1 timeline, I still have the Troubles as on going, with no Good Friday agreement.

I'm sure the former members of the Unsafe Document Regiment are glad that their name lives on somewhere:)

I should have made a point that the Royal Irish are split into two seperate sections - General Service and Home Service Battalions. The GS are a normal regular army formation that can be tasked exactly the same as any other unit, and consist mostly of what was formerly the Rangers and the HS units are exclusively deployed and based in NI. Whether that would stay the same in the event of the Twilight War is anyones guess, but I can see high desertion rates if any attempt was made to deploy the HS Battalion overseas, or even to mainland UK.