Twilight of the Narcos: Drug Cartels in T2k

[Raellus]

IIRC, there's been discussion here of what role, if any, drug cartels may have played in the Mexican invasion of the SW USA. Beyond that, AFAIK, it's a topic that hasn't really come up.

What would happen to drug cartels after the TDM and the ensuing global breakdown of modern techno-capitalist civilization?

Drug cartels derive their power from money. It pays for the guns, sicarios, foot soldiers, corrupt politicians and police, and transportation and distribution networks that narcos rely on to expand and maintain their territories, business concerns, and power. I imagine that, after the TDM, the global market for drugs would more or less collapse. First off, a lot of customers or potential customers would be swallowed up by the draft prior to the nuclear exchanges, or incinerated during them. Second, refugees typically don't have a lot of cash or property to buy or trade for drugs; most survivors would be more preoccupied with day to day survival than getting high (although, for established addicts, those two considerations are not mutually exclusive). Third, the global transportation networks that move drugs across borders and distribute them on a large scale would break down due to a lack of fuel and damage to infrastructure. I just don't see the drug business being profitable, or even sustainable, after the war crosses the nuclear threshold.

So, what happens to drug cartels after the TDM? Do they hang on and continue to operate as best they can in the post-Armageddon world? Do they collapse and disappear? (Good riddance!) Do they evolve? If so, what do they become? I have some thoughts on this, but I'd like to hear from you.

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[swaghauler]

As I have previously stated in my timeline, the Narcos actually took over Mexico and used drug money to buy military equipment to protect themselves from US aggression before The Exchange (what my Nuclear War is called). The invasion of the US was the result of a combination of perceived weakness in the US AND retaliation for attacks on Mexico itself. The Russians had a hand in pushing the invasion and "Division Cuba" was slated to help Mexico from the onset (the name being an Intelligence ruse).

The Mexican drug gangs acted as "pathfinders" for the invasion of the US. Things aren't settled enough for normal drug operations to resume in the US but there's still lots of looting and pillaging to get done yet!

[Tegyrius]

The cartels that run themselves like businesses will still have organizational structures, transportation networks, soldiers, guns, large-scale agriculture, and intimate knowledge of the societies in their areas of operation. I can see some of them becoming regional warlords. Others will pivot - their business model will remain "give people what they want," but by 2000, many people who never wanted cocaine will be desperate for stability and sustenance. Those cartels will become food cartels. Some will expand into other critical infrastructure sectors and will eventually supplant governments at the state/province level.

- C.

[Bulldog1972]

[QUOTE=Raellus;91655]IIRC, there's been discussion here of what role, if any, drug cartels may have played in the Mexican invasion of the SW USA. Beyond that, AFAIK, it's a topic that hasn't really come up.

What would happen to drug cartels after the TDM and the ensuing global breakdown of modern techno-capitalist civilization?

Drug cartels derive their power from money. It pays for the guns, sicarios, foot soldiers, corrupt politicians and police, and transportation and distribution networks that narcos rely on to expand and maintain their territories, business concerns, and power. I imagine that, after the TDM, the global market for drugs would more or less collapse.

**Drug trade would likely fall, but human trafficking & slaving, protection rackets, straight up land grabs would all be booming business.

[Mahatatain]

The cartels that run themselves like businesses will still have organizational structures, transportation networks, soldiers, guns, large-scale agriculture, and intimate knowledge of the societies in their areas of operation. I can see some of them becoming regional warlords. Others will pivot - their business model will remain "give people what they want," but by 2000, many people who never wanted cocaine will be desperate for stability and sustenance. Those cartels will become food cartels. Some will expand into other critical infrastructure sectors and will eventually supplant governments at the state/province level.

- C.
I agree with this. Drug cartels will become regional warlords who control food crops and probably some industry as well. They will exploit the local population, probably through the use of slavery, and the towns/cities they control may well become trade hubs.

[pmulcahy11b]

The drug cartels aren't going to get themselves involved in invading the US except as well-paid mercenaries (carrying some drugs to sell at the same time).

Another possibility is that American raids into Mexico may spill over onto the cartels. Armed conflict in your territory is bad for the cartels' business. It might provoke a counter-raid.

But I don't think the cartels' army would go far into the US, unless they had a specific target, or specific buyers for their goods (which, post-TDM, could be anything from OJ to certain hard-to-find spare parts -- and drugs, of course). The cartels will be like now -- they don't so much have enemies as customers and rivals-- on all sides.

[Heffe]

I ended up researching the cartels pretty extensively for that 4e piece for Nicaragua. A brief history of the cartels (for those that are interested) looks a bit like this:

Mexico:
In the 80s, there were primarily two large cartels in Mexico, the Gulf Cartel, and the Guadelajara Cartel (The Federation). The Guadelajara Cartel managed most Mexican narco trafficking through the 80s, and were some of the first to establish and maintain relationships with the Colombian cartels. In the late 80s and early 90s, The Guadelajara Cartel was, after facing vastly increased pressure from US and Mexican authorities, intentionally broken up into numerous smaller cartels so as to spread risk of arrest. These cartels included the Juarez, Tijuana, and Sinoloa cartels, amongst many others. This started the Mexican Drug War as the Mexican government began low-intensity conflict against the numerous cartels. The Sinoloa Cartel, headed by "El Chapo", generally was regarded as the most successful of the resultant cartels, and is currently still one of the leading drug traffickers in the region.

Colombia:
Meanwhile in Colombia, you had Pablo Escobar's Medellin Cartel dominating the production of cocaine (and trafficking) throughout the 80s. In the mid to late 80s, the Cali Cartel broke off and started its own affair. After Escobar was killed in the early 90s by the government and Medellin fragmented, the Cali cartel largely took over Colombian drug activity. At the height of the Cali cartel's power (93 to 95), they controlled something like 80% of the world's cocaine market. This ended in 95 when the heads of the Cali Cartel were arrested and put in prison (some allegedly making deals with the Colombian government to get perks and short sentences). Those members of the Cali cartel that refused to stop trading in narcotics went on to form the Norte del Valle Cartel, which controlled most everything in Colombia from 95 until the Twilight War.

Some interesting other tidbits I picked up along the way:

The Mexican cartels in Central America generally did move their goods over land along the Pacific coast, while the Colombian cartels preferred moving their shipments by boat (or plane when they could) through the Gulf of Mexico.
The cartels would often pay local "Tumbadores" to steal drug shipments from each other in transit as they passed through Central America. This was frowned upon, but happened all the time, and it was kind of an unspoken understanding between the cartels that they would lose shipments to each other periodically. The Tumbadores were essentially mercs, and although they were in an incredibly dangerous trade, many of them made a living of it.
The Colombians were known for being more miserly when it came to paying employees and contractors.
The larger cartels would usually move nice round numbers of product. For example, they might ship 500kg. When the police would report a bust, they'd only list say, 473kg, representing corruption throughout the region when it came to the police (this probably isn't much of a surprise to anyone).
There's a crazy amount of interconnectivity between the narcotics trade and the world superpowers. You're all aware of the Iran Contra affair and the CIA's involvement no doubt in the 80s, but there was also supposedly heavy involvement by Russian oligarchs and the KGB with the cartels in the 90s, including allegedly Putin himself.


Lastly, as for what would happen to the cartels in the Twilight War? I'd agree that many of them would, while perhaps moving away from the drug trade, still maintain operations and become regional warlords in their areas of operation. With governments collapsing, cartel heads would have the men/weapons/organization to keep their areas under control. I could easily see them rationing out food and medical supplies in return for agricultural and fuel production. Slaves would be found amongst some groups, but not all. Given the outlook of some cartel leaders (especially in Mexico), I could actually see some communities doing rather well for themselves under a cartel's protection in the Twilight War as the cartels move toward insularity and mutual cooperation with the civilians under their purview. I also don't really see them being involved in the invasion of the US, as they'd be more concerned with maintaining their own base of power rather than trying to expand it into such hostile territory.

[Raellus]

Y'all have raised some interesting points.

I think the cartels' post-apocalyptic survivability would mostly depend on how well their leaders could pivot. The Narcos' power currently rests on profits from the drug trade. Those funds buy the service and loyalty of their private armies. Without money, or in a world where money means very little, a lot of that power evaporates. Cartel leaders would need to find another way to buy service and loyalty. Some might figure it out; many, I reckon would not. I think you'd see some local communities, likely bolstered by unpaid, former cartel "soldiers", stand up to local narcos, in many cases successfully.

A precursor to this phenomenon, the autodefensas (community "self-defense" militias), have already appeared in Mexico and Colombia. Unfortunately, they are often bought out or co-opted by rich cartel leaders. Nowadays, most are formed and founded (and funded) by cartels, who seem to appreciate the veneer of respectability.

Again, though, once that funding runs out, unless the leader can find another way to bind his "soldiers" to him- religion, ideology, family/personal relationships- he's likely going to lose many of them to competitors or free agency.

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