Saving the Soviet Economy

[Raellus]

One major point undermining the various T2k timelines, especially v1 and v4, is the IRL collapse of the Soviet economy in the late 1980s. In order to make an alternative history where the USSR at least survives, if not thrives, it's almost imperative to manufacture a way to keep the Soviet economy afloat until world war breaks out in the mid 1990s.

What would do the trick?

I happened to stumble upon a TV show on the Smithsonian channel this morning about a somewhat mysterious, massive explosion that reportedly occurred in Siberia in late 1982. Apparently, the Soviets were constructing pipeline to transport natural gas from Siberia to W. Europe. It was estimated to generate $6-8b per annum in hard currency for the USSR. The pipeline relied on Western components for its numerous compressor stations. At the time, the Soviets were engaging in a lot of industrial espionage. A KGB mole known as "Farewell" tipped off the French, who informed the CIA. This prompted Reagan to respond with an embargo on "high technology" components. The Soviets had to look elsewhere for computers to help control the pipeline.

There's little primary source evidence, but "Farewell" and a former CIA analyst allege that the CIA inserted a Trojan Horse into Canadian hardware/software that they had reason to believe the Soviets were trying to acquire for the pipeline project, post-embargo. Somehow, this Trojan horse triggered the pipeline explosion which was so powerful, it was detected by US spy satellites and was initially thought to have been produced by a nuclear weapon of some sort. It destroyed several miles of pipeline, taking it out of commission for some time*. The US, meanwhile, was deliberately leaking info that they were doctoring computer chips that were finding their way into KGB hands. This, coupled with the pipeline explosion, caused the Soviets to distrust all recently acquired Western technology, which further hampered the Soviet economy as said hardware was taken offline and replacements or workarounds sought.

https://meaww.com/americas-hidden-stories-busting-myth-cia-involvement-trans-siberian-pipeline-explosion-1982

https://unredacted.com/2013/04/26/agent-farewell-and-the-siberian-pipeline-explosion/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_the_Abyss

Other sources claim that the explosion was caused by user error, and that the author of At The Abyss made an incorrect assumption about mention of it in the Farewell dossier.

https://sofrep.com/news/the-myth-of-the-cia-and-the-trans-siberian-pipeline-explosion/

*What none of these stories specify, however, is how long the pipeline was out of commission. Also lacking is a detailed analysis of its economic impact. Instead, we get grandiose implications that this incident was the beginning of the end for the Soviet economy.

The stories linked above imply that the pipeline was rendered permanently out of order, but a wikipedia article on the pipeline mentions continuous operation with no major disruptions since the pipeline was completed c. 1984.

To apply all of this to T2k, what if an alternative timeline starts with the Soviets discovering the alleged Trojan Horse before it activated, saving the pipeline? There would be no interruption of the $6-8b in hard currency it was expected to inject into the Soviet economy annually from 1982 on. With the pipeline active, the Soviets would also gain some economic leverage over western Europe, as we've seen Russia try to exercise IRL over the past couple of years. This might keep the Soviet economy afloat, the the USSR intact, until the the Twilight War kicks off in the mid-to-late 1990s. A couple of other things probably need to change as well, but this would be a sensible starting point.

It's been discussed elsewhere here on the forum, but I thought it might be a good idea to consolidate hypothetical Soviet economy-saving fixes in one spot, so feel free to repeat previous shared ideas, as well as novel ones, in this thread.

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[kato13]

I used the large oil and gold deposits on the Sino Soviet border that Clancy used in "The Bear and the Dragon". Oil found ~1974. Initial production in 1980. Pipeline built to the pacific to supply a growing needs of South Korea, the Philippines and Japan. Perhaps allowing the Soviets more consumer goods if relations solidify.

Also adds potential reasons for the initial skirmishes between USSR and China in 1995. IE. Additional fields discovered, desire for direct pipeline path to Vladivostok, etc.

Increased work on Siberian infrastructure leads to the Gold finds in 1979. This leads to more hard currency to jump start high tech industries.

[.45cultist]

Or the hardliners "roll the dice", betting it all on a victory. The resulting rationing stretches it out until it no longer matters. Part of the reason for the TDM was the failure to achieve their goals.

[Vespers War]

Another possibility is the 1990-91 Gulf War being more severe, leading to oil price increases that benefit the Soviet extraction economy. Prices jumped from $17/barrel in early July of 1990 to $46/barrel in mid-October, declining back to $20/barrel by the end of January 1991 as Operation Desert Storm exceeded international expectations. If Hussein had been more active/vindictive and pummeled oil-producing areas of the OPEC members who opposed his invasion of Kuwait, the ensuing shortage and consequent price spikes would have been a major boost to the Soviet economy, which in our timeline produced somewhat over 10 million barrels per day in 1991, down from a peak of 11.4 million barrels per day in 1988.

The USSR's domestic consumption was around 250 million barrels per year, with around 150 million barrels exported. A price spike to $50/barrel based on destruction of other oil assets, compared to the actual price in 1991, would have generated $4.5 billion of "extra" revenue for the USSR. If they were able to increase production to the 500-550 million barrels of the late 1980s, they could generate $7.5-9 billion of export-based revenue.