Taiwan invasion model

[Heffe]

Hey all,

Was working on our upcoming 4e module "Canon Plus", and came across the following document regarding a model of how a Chinese invasion of Taiwan might play out. There's some really interesting data about air and naval assets of the time in that region, and I despite China fighting Russia in the v1 and v2 timelines, I thought this might be of interest.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1217.pdf

[micromachine]

Good read....played many an hour on the Harpoon game in high school/university.

[Raellus]

Good find. I can see how this would be quite helpful to anyone constructing a 4e timeline involving a PRC invasion of Taiwan.

What's alarming is how much the PRC has increased its military capabilities since this report was written almost a quarter century ago. As we've seen in Ukraine, warfare has changed too. And one could argue that Taiwan's military has failed to keep pace with its mainland cousins in the interim. I imagine that all of this would change the calculus if this report were written today.

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[Heffe]

Good find. I can see how this would be quite helpful to anyone constructing a 4e timeline involving a PRC invasion of Taiwan.

What's alarming is how much the PRC has increased its military capabilities since this report was written almost a quarter century ago. As we've seen in Ukraine, warfare has changed too. And one could argue that Taiwan's military has failed to keep pace with its mainland cousins in the interim. I imagine that all of this would change the calculus if this report were written today.

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I think it helps provide some much needed context to this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_US_arms_sales_to_Taiwan

It's clear that US arms sales to Taiwan jumped dramatically in the late 90s, and have been fairly hot ever since. The computer models in the report indicate the power balance shifting dramatically toward Taiwan when a US carrier or two enter the mix. It also really helps paint the picture on China picking up/building out their own carrier fleet and their heavy focus on the PLAN over the past 20 years.

[Heffe]

Well, in light of this thread, this story is both timely and distressing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/20/china-could-invade-taiwan-end-year-us-warns/

[ToughOmbres]

While it's true that Taiwan has purchased more weapons from the west since the Rand report was written, it's possible that they're not the weapons that Taiwan would need to repel a PRC invasion.

A couple of weeks ago, 60 Minutes did a piece on a potential PRC invasion of Taiwan and how the Taiwanese may or may not be learning valuable lessons from the war in Ukraine. In the piece, a former top Taiwanese military official complains that Taiwan has spent the last 20 years buying the wrong kinds of weapons from the US, and that now, due to demand from Ukraine, the Taiwanese might not be able to get the weapons that they need before mainland China makes a move.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-cyber-assault-taiwan-60-minutes-2022-10-09/

It appears that in this web version, the piece has been chopped up a bit, and salient bits might be missing.

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The PLAN has been very vocal and open about becoming a blue water naval power with large numbers of new hulls and amphibious forces, no doubt about it. However, as with Putin's Russia, how effective would they really be in a conflict? Hopefully we'll never find out.