Re-instated U.S. draft

[castlebravo92]

So, when do we collectively think the U.S. Congress and the President would have re-instated the draft?

Before hostilities with USSR?

As soon as US became a co-belligerent?

Or after casualties/time reached a certain point?

The US was involved in combat with the USSR/Warsaw Pact from Nov 1996 on. By end of Nov 1997, nukes were hitting the US, so there would have been a relatively short period of time (<1 year) for callups to be effective.

[Raellus]

Inspired by Castlebravo's question, I added a poll.

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[ToughOmbres]

So, when do we collectively think the U.S. Congress and the President would have re-instated the draft?

Before hostilities with USSR?

As soon as US became a co-belligerent?

Or after casualties/time reached a certain point?

The US was involved in combat with the USSR/Warsaw Pact from Nov 1996 on. By end of Nov 1997, nukes were hitting the US, so there would have been a relatively short period of time (<1 year) for callups to be effective.

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree there would have been a relatively short window for the draft-you figure a year for Basic and even a quick AIT for someone to absorb knowledge and become proficient in their slot. Probably just as importantly we still (1995ish) had enough active posts that could spin up and conduct Basic.

[castlebravo92]

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree there would have been a relatively short window for the draft-you figure a year for Basic and even a quick AIT for someone to absorb knowledge and become proficient in their slot. Probably just as importantly we still (1995ish) had enough active posts that could spin up and conduct Basic.

Yeah, since GDW basically went with the 1988ish US ORBAT with no new units (AFAIK), my head canon says that draftees (and volunteers) were used to round out activated NG units (given that the whole NG round out brigade thing proved dubious during Desert Shield / Desert Storm) and replace combat losses for existing units. Training divisions were intended to (in head canon at least) to turn out trained classes which would then be directed to individual units in small batches. The conversion of these training orgs to actual combat units was an emergency measure in mid to late 1998.

Context: writing a Texas Almanac: 2000, and trying to fill in the back history of the war for Texas in general, and installations like Ft. Hood etc.

[Raellus]

Politically I would think a draft would be too risk before we were directly involved for an Administration.

I agree, especially in the v1 timeline. With NATO starting the war in Europe, there might be significant domestic opposition to American involvement in the USA. Therefore, I think the draft would start as soon as it becomes clear that WWIII is expanding outside the bounds of Central Europe, into the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula.

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[Bestbrian]

Assuming a version 1 timeline, I always thought not long after the China/USSR war breaks out, so about a year and a half before the balloon goes up in Germany. The politics would've been fraught, but early action would've been necessary to gear up the system and start cranking out the technical MOS's that require longer training times. Eighteen months can generate a number of troops from the OSUT MOS's, but is barely enough time to graduate one cohort of Cat 4 MI linguists, for example. Maybe we have a scenario where the higher DLPT scores get drafted first?

[kato13]

To try to get draftees in earlier, I would have a similar program to HCPDS
https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft/#s4
but for logistical specialists (truck drivers, dock workers, rail workers , etc)

I could easily see a domestic use only, specialist draft for limited MOSes related to logistics, once Reforger starts, and perhaps even earlier.

Using a real world parallel, I think back to Desert Storm and if you overlay the US supporting China similar to how we are currently supporting Ukraine , I could see the logistics needs getting overloaded and needing specialists on the home front to replace those sent overseas.

[Homer]

My window is not earlier than December 1996, since both parties would want to avoid turning the draft on before the November 1996 election. I’ve taken a lot of threads from Chico’s history, some pop culture, as well as cannon to build a timeline of selective service; my apologies if anything is amiss or I have failed to give credit where it’s due.

The initial DoD request for a draft following the first hostilities in Germany and elsewhere during October 1996 is not supported by POTUS, who hopes to keep the US clear of the war. As a sop, DoD does get consent to lower enlistment standards and expand waiver authority to increase the eligible volunteer population. Nevertheless, the selective service system is quietly directed to begin preparations to be ready to deliver inductees by January of 1997 following receipt of a general notice in June as the war in China spiraled.

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea. Decriers are quick to point out that the new draft squarely targets young adults who aren’t able find a way out. Red Night, a popular alternative rock band, releases a hit protest single “Vacation” in response. More concretely, Vietnam Era draft resister groups start to re-emerge and offer passage to Canada or other sanctuaries.

The draft debate becomes more public and widespread through December and early January as it becomes clear that the war will only get costlier following the battles in East Germany, Norway, at sea, and the initiation of hostilities in Korea. POTUS seeks to expand the draft, under advisement from SECDEF, JCS and the intelligence community that the war will only continue to spread and escalate. While friendly legislators draft the bill, the measure fails a motion to proceed to the floor for a vote. Instead DoD is given a supplemental appropriation in early February to be used to support expansion of the recruiting force, MEPS infrastructure and manning, and enlistment bonuses to help compete with the burgeoning wartime economy. The language of the New National Defense Act is also quietly amended to allow its draftees to be deployed overseas.

By early March, the continued bloodletting in Norway, the buildup to operation Advent Crown, the buildup in the Middle East and the meatgrinder combat in Korea are taking their toll on personnel replacements. Following a series of briefs to the HASC and the SASC throughout March, the debate is reopened in the draft. Staunch opposition in the legislature and among the public continues, but the success of operations in East Germany and favorable news in the war at sea serve to quiet fears of a “forever war” as the narrative begins to shift to “liberation” from communism. A stand-alone measure to expand the draft provisions of the “New National Defense Act” to allow a draft of 20-25 year olds (without deferment) and medical professionals narrowly passes in early April, and this “Patriot Act” is ceremonially signed into law on April 19, 1997, the 222d anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Pundits across the nation comment on the irony of the anniversary juxtaposed with the ongoing unrest in Boston following fuel shortages. Announcements of the new measure are met with protests on college campuses and among health care workers, while the rest of the nation accepts it as one more step on an already long and bloody road.

The first inductions under the Patriot Act occur in May of 1997. While there are instances of resistance, unlike in previous drafts there is no haven to flee to due to the global situation (Canada started returning US draft dodgers in April) and limited sympathy from (drafted) medical professionals for those seeking to be found unfit. The call-ups of national guard and reserve units and their involvement in combat have brought the war home across America and lessened sympathy for would-be draft dodgers as well as draft-resistance groups. In one incident New York State Troopers at the Buffalo MEPs are forced to intervene when a group of students and activists including Red Night’s lead singer Billy Roe Weakhand are attacked by a group of supporters and family members from Buffalo area National Guard and Reserve units. Ironically, Mr. Weakhand would soon find himself the recipient of a draft notice, leading him to enlist in the US Air Force as a fuels specialist, reporting to March AFB in October of 1997.

One unforeseen consequence of the draft and additional expenditures on recruiting is an increase in voluntary enlistments as bonuses and the prospect of having some control in their future service attract young men (and some women). The months between the passage of the New National Defense Act and the first Patriot Act inductions sees the investment in recruiting infrastructure more than justified as enlistees swell the training base. This is especially true when factories begin to give preference to older workers who won’t be liable to the draft.

The invasion of Alaska serves as a catalyst for further expansion of the draft. Panicked by the sudden advance of Soviet forces in addition to reverses and casualties on other fronts, a request to amend the Patriot Act to include ages 18-25 and previously excepted groups including eligible aliens, select clergy, and dual citizens is rapidly approved by a legislature fixated on the threat of Soviet troops on US soil. The amendment passes on 17 June, and is announced the same day along with news of further reverses in Alaska, a brutal battle over a monastery in an unpronounceable city in Poland, and what looks to be a disastrous offensive in North Norway. The new induction measures are set to go into effect on 1 July, but DoD is successful in having implementation pushed back until 1 August to prepare the already stretched training base for a new surge of draftees.

The panic accompanying the initiation of tactical nuclear warfare in July and the subsequent mass exodus disrupts the flow of draft notices and shipment of draftees. Postal employees and draft board officials join with others in making plans to flee the specter of nuclear war, while buses and trains are packed with panicked city dwellers fleeing the megatons they fear are inbound. This causes a hiccup in the intake process; plans are made to accelerate training until things are back on track by compressing certain blocks and exploiting the summer weather to lengthen the training day. Guidance is given to continue to process and ship enlisted and draftees from MEPS to training bases and let the services solve the problem once the trainees are there. The newly inaugurated Operation Certain Delivery directs local commanders to use available national guard and reserve troops to secure dedicated trains and buses for transportation. This leads to a near riot at the 30th Street Station in Philadelphia, when a crowd attempting to board an AMTRAK “Certain Delivery” train confronts an outnumbered USNR guard force from the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The guard force commander, a recalled former F-14 pilot, is on the verge of suffering a nervous breakdown and ordering his sailors to fire a volley over the crowd when AMTRAK and a quick thinking prior USMC Philadelphia Police officer intervene.

By 1 September, the induction and training machine is functioning smoothly. All services report that they are at or near full capacity and able to, for now, keep up with manpower demands from the fronts. Despite the disruption of tactical nuclear warfare, and the worldwide scope of the conflict, the selective service system is doing its part to meet the tasks it was warned to execute just over a year before. As conscription becomes the new normal, discussion turns to other that could benefit from the expertise built by the selective service system. The first question put to the selective service system is how to resolve the issue of those not suitable for service. For the SSS this also means ensuring the survival of a bureaucracy which has grown in size and influence over the past year. With input from the SSS, Congress authorizes a 30 day National Workplace Study, directing the SSS to determine how they could assist in mobilizing additional workers during periods of national emergency from those not suitable for military service. The second question put to the SSS by an unusual coalition of far right and far left lawmakers was how to expand selective service to include women. This would be much thornier, but for the SSS, it meant a potentially more substantial increase in structure and budget. The Women’s Selective Service Study was also authorized for 30 days. Both studies were delivered to congress by the SSS on 1 October, just in time for a scheduled recess. Meanwhile, the selective service system continued to run.

Committee actions on the proposed National Workplace Act and Women’s Wartime Equality amendment to the Selective Service Act began in early October, and draft legislation was introduced just before the Thanksgiving recess. The continuing nuclear exchanges in Europe had become a fixture, and it seemed like once again America would be the Arsenal of Democracy, sending forces to fight around the world while remaining more or less untouched. The war news continued, some good, some bad. As the draft continued, opposition lessened, replaced with a grim resignation. Unlike the Vietnam Era draft, the sweeping eligibility of the current draft met with widespread acceptance as it was generally (unless you were swept up) perceived to be fair. As the war ground on, volunteers continued to outnumber draftees, with many draftees ending up in jobs in support echelons while many volunteers gravitated towards combat or combat support jobs. On the home front industry was near full capacity, with many plants working three shifts six days a week and workers coming home to tired to spend their swollen pay packets or to worry too much about a war occurring far away from home.

The strategic exchanges of November-December 1997 mark the end of the new normal and the end of the SSS until the recovery era. The strike on DC and the subsequent chaos gutted the National Headquarters while the data center and 2 of the 3 Region Headquarters were destroyed by Soviet strikes or civil disorder. Without computerized records or much of its functioning infrastructure, the rump of the SSS proves barely capable of continuing to administer itself, much less preside over continuing draft lotteries. The post strike period sees the SSS relocation team, under the former Deputy Director, operating from a relocation site in the Federal Arc, delegate many of its functions to state managers. They too are overwhelmed, and soon, the local draft board again rises to prominence.

When President Munson signs FEP-D in 1997, part of the packet of papers he signs into law are a draft of the NWA and WWE as well an order granting SSS the power to establish local draft boards in the event of national emergency (the redundancy of this is seen as an example of the fragmented nature of post attack America).

The SSS split along with the rest of the US Government; the Colorado Regional Headquarters eventually aligning with MILGOV and the reconstituted National Headquarters remained with CIVGOV. However, they both continued to perform the function of manpower mobilizer to whatever degree they could, wielding their authorities under FEP-D, NWA, and WWE either directly or through local boards to get the willing or unwilling troops and labor necessary in the dark years of the Twilight War.

[castlebravo92]

Homer, this is a really good write up. Mind if I crib some of this? Will give full cite, credit etc to you and Chico (and anyone else), but this fills in a pretty big narrative hole.

FWIW, the Texas Almanac is going to be 100% free and as far as plans go, only planning on "publishing" here.

[Homer]

Thanks! And definitely, if you can use it, use it.

[Ewan]

FWIW, the Texas Almanac is going to be 100% free and as far as plans go, only planning on "publishing" here.

What is the Texas Almanac as it’s piqued my interest. Thanks

[ToughOmbres]

My window is not earlier than December 1996, since both parties would want to avoid turning the draft on before the November 1996 election. I’ve taken a lot of threads from Chico’s history, some pop culture, as well as cannon to build a timeline of selective service; my apologies if anything is amiss or I have failed to give credit where it’s due.

The initial DoD request for a draft following the first hostilities in Germany and elsewhere during October 1996 is not supported by POTUS, who hopes to keep the US clear of the war. As a sop, DoD does get consent to lower enlistment standards and expand waiver authority to increase the eligible volunteer population. Nevertheless, the selective service system is quietly directed to begin preparations to be ready to deliver inductees by January of 1997 following receipt of a general notice in June as the war in China spiraled.

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea. Decriers are quick to point out that the new draft squarely targets young adults who aren’t able find a way out. Red Night, a popular alternative rock band, releases a hit protest single “Vacation” in response. More concretely, Vietnam Era draft resister groups start to re-emerge and offer passage to Canada or other sanctuaries.

The draft debate becomes more public and widespread through December and early January as it becomes clear that the war will only get costlier following the battles in East Germany, Norway, at sea, and the initiation of hostilities in Korea. POTUS seeks to expand the draft, under advisement from SECDEF, JCS and the intelligence community that the war will only continue to spread and escalate. While friendly legislators draft the bill, the measure fails a motion to proceed to the floor for a vote. Instead DoD is given a supplemental appropriation in early February to be used to support expansion of the recruiting force, MEPS infrastructure and manning, and enlistment bonuses to help compete with the burgeoning wartime economy. The language of the New National Defense Act is also quietly amended to allow its draftees to be deployed overseas.

By early March, the continued bloodletting in Norway, the buildup to operation Advent Crown, the buildup in the Middle East and the meatgrinder combat in Korea are taking their toll on personnel replacements. Following a series of briefs to the HASC and the SASC throughout March, the debate is reopened in the draft. Staunch opposition in the legislature and among the public continues, but the success of operations in East Germany and favorable news in the war at sea serve to quiet fears of a “forever war” as the narrative begins to shift to “liberation” from communism. A stand-alone measure to expand the draft provisions of the “New National Defense Act” to allow a draft of 20-25 year olds (without deferment) and medical professionals narrowly passes in early April, and this “Patriot Act” is ceremonially signed into law on April 19, 1997, the 222d anniversary of the Battles of Lexington and Concord. Pundits across the nation comment on the irony of the anniversary juxtaposed with the ongoing unrest in Boston following fuel shortages. Announcements of the new measure are met with protests on college campuses and among health care workers, while the rest of the nation accepts it as one more step on an already long and bloody road.

The first inductions under the Patriot Act occur in May of 1997. While there are instances of resistance, unlike in previous drafts there is no haven to flee to due to the global situation (Canada started returning US draft dodgers in April) and limited sympathy from (drafted) medical professionals for those seeking to be found unfit. The call-ups of national guard and reserve units and their involvement in combat have brought the war home across America and lessened sympathy for would-be draft dodgers as well as draft-resistance groups. In one incident New York State Troopers at the Buffalo MEPs are forced to intervene when a group of students and activists including Red Night’s lead singer Billy Roe Weakhand are attacked by a group of supporters and family members from Buffalo area National Guard and Reserve units. Ironically, Mr. Weakhand would soon find himself the recipient of a draft notice, leading him to enlist in the US Air Force as a fuels specialist, reporting to March AFB in October of 1997.

One unforeseen consequence of the draft and additional expenditures on recruiting is an increase in voluntary enlistments as bonuses and the prospect of having some control in their future service attract young men (and some women). The months between the passage of the New National Defense Act and the first Patriot Act inductions sees the investment in recruiting infrastructure more than justified as enlistees swell the training base. This is especially true when factories begin to give preference to older workers who won’t be liable to the draft.

The invasion of Alaska serves as a catalyst for further expansion of the draft. Panicked by the sudden advance of Soviet forces in addition to reverses and casualties on other fronts, a request to amend the Patriot Act to include ages 18-25 and previously excepted groups including eligible aliens, select clergy, and dual citizens is rapidly approved by a legislature fixated on the threat of Soviet troops on US soil. The amendment passes on 17 June, and is announced the same day along with news of further reverses in Alaska, a brutal battle over a monastery in an unpronounceable city in Poland, and what looks to be a disastrous offensive in North Norway. The new induction measures are set to go into effect on 1 July, but DoD is successful in having implementation pushed back until 1 August to prepare the already stretched training base for a new surge of draftees.

The panic accompanying the initiation of tactical nuclear warfare in July and the subsequent mass exodus disrupts the flow of draft notices and shipment of draftees. Postal employees and draft board officials join with others in making plans to flee the specter of nuclear war, while buses and trains are packed with panicked city dwellers fleeing the megatons they fear are inbound. This causes a hiccup in the intake process; plans are made to accelerate training until things are back on track by compressing certain blocks and exploiting the summer weather to lengthen the training day. Guidance is given to continue to process and ship enlisted and draftees from MEPS to training bases and let the services solve the problem once the trainees are there. The newly inaugurated Operation Certain Delivery directs local commanders to use available national guard and reserve troops to secure dedicated trains and buses for transportation. This leads to a near riot at the 30th Street Station in Philadelphia, when a crowd attempting to board an AMTRAK “Certain Delivery” train confronts an outnumbered USNR guard force from the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The guard force commander, a recalled former F-14 pilot, is on the verge of suffering a nervous breakdown and ordering his sailors to fire a volley over the crowd when AMTRAK and a quick thinking prior USMC Philadelphia Police officer intervene.

By 1 September, the induction and training machine is functioning smoothly. All services report that they are at or near full capacity and able to, for now, keep up with manpower demands from the fronts. Despite the disruption of tactical nuclear warfare, and the worldwide scope of the conflict, the selective service system is doing its part to meet the tasks it was warned to execute just over a year before. As conscription becomes the new normal, discussion turns to other that could benefit from the expertise built by the selective service system. The first question put to the selective service system is how to resolve the issue of those not suitable for service. For the SSS this also means ensuring the survival of a bureaucracy which has grown in size and influence over the past year. With input from the SSS, Congress authorizes a 30 day National Workplace Study, directing the SSS to determine how they could assist in mobilizing additional workers during periods of national emergency from those not suitable for military service. The second question put to the SSS by an unusual coalition of far right and far left lawmakers was how to expand selective service to include women. This would be much thornier, but for the SSS, it meant a potentially more substantial increase in structure and budget. The Women’s Selective Service Study was also authorized for 30 days. Both studies were delivered to congress by the SSS on 1 October, just in time for a scheduled recess. Meanwhile, the selective service system continued to run.

Committee actions on the proposed National Workplace Act and Women’s Wartime Equality amendment to the Selective Service Act began in early October, and draft legislation was introduced just before the Thanksgiving recess. The continuing nuclear exchanges in Europe had become a fixture, and it seemed like once again America would be the Arsenal of Democracy, sending forces to fight around the world while remaining more or less untouched. The war news continued, some good, some bad. As the draft continued, opposition lessened, replaced with a grim resignation. Unlike the Vietnam Era draft, the sweeping eligibility of the current draft met with widespread acceptance as it was generally (unless you were swept up) perceived to be fair. As the war ground on, volunteers continued to outnumber draftees, with many draftees ending up in jobs in support echelons while many volunteers gravitated towards combat or combat support jobs. On the home front industry was near full capacity, with many plants working three shifts six days a week and workers coming home to tired to spend their swollen pay packets or to worry too much about a war occurring far away from home.

The strategic exchanges of November-December 1997 mark the end of the new normal and the end of the SSS until the recovery era. The strike on DC and the subsequent chaos gutted the National Headquarters while the data center and 2 of the 3 Region Headquarters were destroyed by Soviet strikes or civil disorder. Without computerized records or much of its functioning infrastructure, the rump of the SSS proves barely capable of continuing to administer itself, much less preside over continuing draft lotteries. The post strike period sees the SSS relocation team, under the former Deputy Director, operating from a relocation site in the Federal Arc, delegate many of its functions to state managers. They too are overwhelmed, and soon, the local draft board again rises to prominence.

When President Munson signs FEP-D in 1997, part of the packet of papers he signs into law are a draft of the NWA and WWE as well an order granting SSS the power to establish local draft boards in the event of national emergency (the redundancy of this is seen as an example of the fragmented nature of post attack America).

The SSS split along with the rest of the US Government; the Colorado Regional Headquarters eventually aligning with MILGOV and the reconstituted National Headquarters remained with CIVGOV. However, they both continued to perform the function of manpower mobilizer to whatever degree they could, wielding their authorities under FEP-D, NWA, and WWE either directly or through local boards to get the willing or unwilling troops and labor in the dark years of the Twilight War.

Would a well meaning but clueless Milgov or Civgov commander want to send a team to recover magnetic tape backups or some of the mountains of physical cards that were housed in IL? It would make for an interesting Maguffin for an adventure.

[ToughOmbres]

To try to get draftees in earlier, I would have a similar program to HCPDS
https://www.sss.gov/about/return-to-draft/#s4
but for logistical specialists (truck drivers, dock workers, rail workers , etc)

I could easily see a domestic use only, specialist draft for limited MOSes related to logistics, once Reforger starts, and perhaps even earlier.

Using a real world parallel, I think back to Desert Storm and if you overlay the US supporting China similar to how we are currently supporting Ukraine , I could see the logistics needs getting overloaded and needing specialists on the home front to replace those sent overseas.

Long before Iraq/Afghanistan the US Army used Stop Loss pretty often right before and then during REFORGER IRL. I would imagine by 1995 unit commanders would begin quietly using or consider using Stop Loss on a small scale.

Normally if you have been out more than three years regardless of the fine print or the emergency it's not worth bringing you back onto active duty-too many things have changed.

Now if you happen to be a harbor master or harbor pilot-that's a different story. Tiny numbers available to begin with and During Desert Shield/Desert Storm lots of them got rudely called back-to their everlasting chagrin.

The same thing would have happened to railway qualified (the new 88U MOS) had the civilian freight railroads not convinced the Army they could handle the movements (and largely did a good job of doing so). Otherwise lots of old Army railroaders would have gotten unpleasant callbacks. Lots of older guys with real physical problems that wouldn't excuse them too-many exceptions to policy.

[chico20854]

Long before Iraq/Afghanistan the US Army used Stop Loss pretty often right before and then during REFORGER IRL. I would imagine by 1995 unit commanders would begin quietly using or consider using Stop Loss on a small scale.

Normally if you have been out more than three years regardless of the fine print or the emergency it's not worth bringing you back onto active duty-too many things have changed.

I read a post-Desert Storm study of recalled inactive reservists. Some had been off active duty for less than a month, others no more than 2 years. When they got called up they were treated, in general, like new trainees fresh off the street, with reserve drill sergeants to bring them up to speed. Some of these guys were combat vets from Panama and nearly all of them thought themselves up to speed, just needing to get back into shape maybe, and found the treatment extremely degrading. After finally getting certified combat ready, they were sent to Germany as replacements, where in many cases the gaining commanders put them on menial duties...

Lots of older guys with real physical problems that wouldn't excuse them too-many exceptions to policy.

I served with a supply sergeant stationed in Germany during Desert Storm. They took his armorer/clerk to fill out another unit and sent him a replacement from the IRR (Inactive Ready Reserve). The guy had been put out of the Army 5 years or more prior for being overweight and hadn't stopped eating since. They sent him to Germany on an exception to policy and wearing a....
maternity uniform!

[ToughOmbres]

I read a post-Desert Storm study of recalled inactive reservists. Some had been off active duty for less than a month, others no more than 2 years. When they got called up they were treated, in general, like new trainees fresh off the street, with reserve drill sergeants to bring them up to speed. Some of these guys were combat vets from Panama and nearly all of them thought themselves up to speed, just needing to get back into shape maybe, and found the treatment extremely degrading. After finally getting certified combat ready, they were sent to Germany as replacements, where in many cases the gaining commanders put them on menial duties...



I served with a supply sergeant stationed in Germany during Desert Storm. They took his armorer/clerk to fill out another unit and sent him a replacement from the IRR (Inactive Ready Reserve). The guy had been put out of the Army 5 years or more prior for being overweight and hadn't stopped eating since. They sent him to Germany on an exception to policy and wearing a....
maternity uniform!

Yikes. As Charlie Brown would say "Good Grief."

[Homer]

I figure stop loss/stop move would have been increasingly implemented during early 96 as the China war escalated and reserve component units were mobilized and if necessary federalized.

Politically, ordering a mobilization was a big deal at that time, as was federalizing the guard at large scale. Since it’s an election year, there would be a push to be seen as taking matching actions with federal forces, possibly as part of a “tough on Soviet Aggression” platform.

The economic disruption caused by waves of call-up would be offset in part by the rapidly increasing volume of defense production orders from China, Allies, and the DoD. The incumbent campaign would probably seek to highlight increasing economic growth AND the “successful” containment of the war to China (the CT ops in Saudi Arabia can be conducted well below the radar) all the way up until the Bundeswehr crosses the IGB.

[castlebravo92]

What is the Texas Almanac as it’s piqued my interest. Thanks

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle? What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex? Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it?

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

[Ewan]

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle? What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex? Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it?

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

Thank you and it looks like it’ll be a really good read.

[Adm.Lee]

Yeah, since GDW basically went with the 1988ish US ORBAT with no new units (AFAIK), my head canon says that draftees (and volunteers) were used to round out activated NG units (given that the whole NG round out brigade thing proved dubious during Desert Shield / Desert Storm) and replace combat losses for existing units. Training divisions were intended to (in head canon at least) to turn out trained classes which would then be directed to individual units in small batches. The conversion of these training orgs to actual combat units was an emergency measure in mid to late 1998.


What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units? Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96? Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front?

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

[Adm.Lee]

To answer the original question, IMO, US conscription should have resumed about the time the US forces joined the war-- around October 1996. Delaying much past that would create a big hole in replacements in the spring and summer of 1997.

[castlebravo92]

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units?

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

[chico20854]

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

[ToughOmbres]

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units? Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96? Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front?

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

Yes. The Round-out Brigades were....interesting in Desert Shield. Both 256th Mech (LA ARNG) and 48th Mech (GA ARNG) were alerted and called into federal service but did not deploy into Saudi. From those "in the know" the Regular Army said they could not meet requirements until longer train-ups, which when completed, the ground war was over.
State political figures and National Guard officers blamed bias from the Regular Army against the ARNG on the failure to meet deployment standards. From those "in the know" the truth was somewhere in between. That said, had the fighting been more intense and the ground war lasted much longer and with greater casualties both brigades as I understand it would have been put into the deployment pipeline.

Notice that in the 90's most of the ARNG mechanized brigades went away and almost all of the Army Reserve combat formations also went away.

[ToughOmbres]

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

Interesting on filling in slots during the Twilight War compared with Desert Shield/Desert Storm and the process during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Totally different circumstances of course.
The Arkansas ARNG's 39th Infantry BCT was alerted for deployment during OIF. Approximately 10% of the slots in the Brigade were unfilled (IIRC). Many were filled from the Vermont ARNG, others from other state ARNG units that were not slated for deployment and an unknown number from IRR.

[Adm.Lee]

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

OK, so no differently than filling gaps in the regular units, other than assuming there are more gaps in the NG units. I misunderstood your point.

I think we're also drifting into the idea that IRR reservists would be used to fill in the regular formations, while mobilizing the Guard's formations would take long enough (months) that draftees would be able to cover shortfalls there.

[Claidheamh]

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoD’s analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the “New National Defense Act”, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea.

Having just turned 24 in Nov 96, the impact of these dates and call-ups hits home in an all new way.

[bash]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

[Adm.Lee]

...
I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

[Raellus]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

That is an intriguing concept. I wonder if any such system has been put into practice by a wartime army in the modern era.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

Great point. There's definitely historical precedent for something like that in the 20th century. For a number of reasons, during the 1930s, the USA was in the grips of isolationist sentiment. Most Americans were shocked and appalled by Japanese aggression in China and Nazi German aggression in central Europe, but didn't want the USA to get involved because we had our own problems to deal with (namely, the Great Depression). FDR, on the other hand, was an internationalist who believed that the USA had a duty to stand up for democracy overseas. He needed a fait accompli to put the USA on a war footing without angering the American public. In 1940, FDR convinced Congress to activate a peacetime draft by promising that draftees would not be deployed overseas. Enough folks in Congress either played dumb or were legitimately fooled into voting for it that it passed. The public largely accepted the peacetime draft because it created paying jobs at a time when the unemployment rate was still really high.

The USA in the mid-1990s was still slightly hung over from the last draft (Vietnam) but I could see Congress passing a conditional draft similar to that instituted by the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 after the Soviets invade China.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Indeed, but skilled civilians would still need to learn the "army way" to do things, and that would take some time (but, to your point, probably less than the six weeks or whatever the duration of abbreviated basic training would be).

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

That would absolutely be the case once the USA was at war and started to accumulate WIA personnel. Later in the war, once the logistical chain between the US and various foreign theaters of operations were strained/severed, most military support jobs like cooking, maintaining some equipment, etc., would be handed over to local civilian "contractors" so that US soldiers who'd normally do those sorts of things could be shifted to frontline combat duty.

-

[castlebravo92]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

That's a variant of one of the many things Russia has done:

1. Replace immediate combat losses with in-theater troops with non-combat roles and throw them into combat.

2. Scavenge non-theater units for combat replacements (including, in some cases, strategic rocket forces troops - one day you are manning a mobile ICBM, the next day, you are carrying a rifle and trying to advance).

3. Press ganging locals (including Ukrainians) into the military and sending them forward as fodder with 1-2 days of training.

4. Recruiting convicts with promises of freedom.

5. Drafting.

At some point, a desperate US would have done all of the above as well.

[.45cultist]

Another point is the influx of military aged men from Mexico. They may get offered citizenship for service, skipping the citizenship test for honorable service.

[ToughOmbres]

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.


If secondary MOS are/is "still a thing" in the modern US Army some of those with combat arms as a secondary MOS could be used to fill gaps. Bandsmen for instance were notorious for having mortuary affairs/tagging and collecting deceased remains as their secondary MOS.

A co-worker who was a combat engineer was told by their officers that they were (his words) "grunts with shovels and heavy equipment" and perfect for acting as a fire brigade in the event of a breakthrough.

Plugging the line with transportation, specialists like water purification or public affairs is great in an extreme emergency-then you have to train those specialists and get them in the AIT pipeline to replace those KIA/WIA. Tough balance.

[Homer]

Another point is the influx of military aged men from Mexico. They may get offered citizenship for service, skipping the citizenship test for honorable service.

That’s very likely.

The legal framework for naturalization through service in the US armed forces has been established under 8 USC 1439 and through previous special acts such as Lodge-Philbin. Service in a period of hostilities allowed for shortening of some of the time requirements established under the 1991 revision (“six and six”). It wasn’t uncommon to see soldiers enlisted under this incentive in formations during the 90s (I variously served with soldiers from Poland, Colombia, Dominican Republic, and South Africa).

During T2K the time period would be shortened, and the benefits of service advertised heavily.

[Ursus Maior]

[...]FDR, on the other hand, was an internationalist who believed that the USA had a duty to stand up for democracy overseas. He needed a fait accompli to put the USA on a war footing without angering the American public. In 1940, FDR convinced Congress to activate a peacetime draft by promising that draftees would not be deployed overseas. Enough folks in Congress either played dumb or were legitimately fooled into voting for it that it passed. The public largely accepted the peacetime draft because it created paying jobs at a time when the unemployment rate was still really high.

The USA in the mid-1990s was still slightly hung over from the last draft (Vietnam) but I could see Congress passing a conditional draft similar to that instituted by the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 after the Soviets invade China. -
That is an excellent historical analogy for use in T2K, I think. About every T2K timeline would have to deal with "less peace dividend" (if any) during the 1990s and thus more pressure on Western economies and job markets. Already in the early 1990s a sellout on German heavy industries had begun, the Chinese bought whole running steel plants. And of course, during the 1980s Japan, Taiwan and South Korea had begun pressuring Western markets with their consumer electronics and other tech products.

If the West has less money during the Clinton era ("it's the economy, stupid!"), jobs will be much scarcer. In Germany, we had large problems with unemployment during the 1998-2005 period of chancelor Schröder (who later turned cloaks and is now a Gazprom board member). If that period starts earlier and similar developments occur in other Western countries, including the US, the European Community as well as the former WP members (depending on the timeline/edition) would be much less stable and look a lot more like the 1930s. That might include nationalist, populist and irredentist movements, similar to to what former Yugoslavia and Albania experienced during the period.

If Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and perhaps even Czechia and Slovakia experience similar - yet weaker - periods of instability, big armies wouldn't look out of place at all. That of course sucks even more money out of the coffers.

[Ursus Maior]

Another point is the influx of military aged men from Mexico. They may get offered citizenship for service, skipping the citizenship test for honorable service.

Any takes on the conditions and time of service? Something like "5 years" with a subclause in fine print that says "if war is declared, this period is extended until Congress declares that the war is over"?

[castlebravo92]

Any takes on the conditions and time of service? Something like "5 years" with a subclause in fine print that says "if war is declared, this period is extended until Congress declares that the war is over"?

Current and past laws:

https://www.uscis.gov/military/naturalization-through-military-service

1 year of honorable military service + 5 years lawful residency

or

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1440&num=0&edition=prelim

serving until the end of hostilities during a war

[Raellus]

I completely agree with y'all that in the T2kU legal resident aliens (and probably some foreigners holding particular types of visas) would be enticed to enlist in the US military with the promise of fast-tracked citizenship.

However, I wonder if the government would be forced to reverse this policy once Mexico invades the US, due to public outcry from certain demographics.

-

[Spartan_117]

lolz, there will be more than a few people 'promised' US citizenship via military service who will have enlisted just before the MILGOV/CIVGOV split, only to realize that DOD isn't the agency with the statutory authority to grant US citizenship.

I wonder how interested CIVGOV DOJ INS will be in granting citizenship to people serving in MILGOV post split...

(rhetorical question - hence no question mark)

[castlebravo92]

Immigrant non-citizens with residency are still obligated to register for the Selective Service even today.

Where it would get interesting is non-resident aliens, ala a Foreign Legion component.

Imagine being a Mexican national crossing over from Juarez in 1996 to sign up with the US army at Fort Blitz to get US citizenship, getting sent off to fight with the 3rd ACR in Europe (or the 5th ID), working your way back via Going Home to Red Star/Lone Star to find yourself in Mexico after the border moved north a few hundred miles.

[Ursus Maior]

Current and past laws:
Thanks for the links, will look them up.

[Ursus Maior]

I completely agree with y'all that in the T2kU legal resident aliens (and probably some foreigners holding particular types of visas) would be enticed to enlist in the US military with the promise of fast-tracked citizenship.

However, I wonder if the government would be forced to reverse this policy once Mexico invades the US, due to public outcry from certain demographics.

-

I could see the second happening or at least be discussed publicly with some people perhaps even refusing to cooperate or follow orders by soldiers "with that look". For dramatic purposes, this could also be something that comes up once CivGov and MilGov split and seek political allies as well as followership within the wider populace: Hardliners taking over CivGov and pragmaticists steering MilGov.

Also, I could envision a second package of laws legalizing not recent, legal immigrants, but also illegals under a certain age. This would work similar to the various iterations of the (failed) DREAM Act: Persons of militarily relevant ages, e. g. 17-31 could benefit from legalization and full citizenship, if they meet conditions as described by @castlebravo92 or past laws, i. e. until the cessation of hostilities.

[Targan]

Not relevant to the US obviously, but my Australian citizenship was granted astonishingly quickly after I applied to enlist in the Army Reserve.

[castlebravo92]

In my Texas Almanac, I'm breaking the draft into two/three periods:

Pre Thanksgiving Day Massacre: draft runs something like the Vietnam draft (lottery numbers, draft boards), but with fewer deferments. Women still exempt.

Post Thanksgiving Day Massacre: draft runs something like the Russian draft, only worse. MP companies swoop into areas and collect every able bodied person they can (male or female). Congrats, you are in the army now. "Legalized" by FEP-D executive order, it basically makes the entire population of the United States subject to draft on the basis of exigent need, subject to the appropriate authority. This "organized" draft into military units more or less ceases after the training divisions are mobilized and the training commands shut down around August 1998. After that central control in the United States basically collapses.

After THAT, there people are still "drafted", but it's more warlord style and more akin to slavery/death camp slavery than "welcome to the Army, here's a gun." Here and beyond, military units will either spot recruit to fill gaps, or absorb militias/police once they have settled into cantonments for the long haul.

[Raellus]

Post Thanksgiving Day Massacre: draft runs something like the Russian draft, only worse. MP companies swoop into areas and collect every able bodied person they can (male or female). Congrats, you are in the army now. "Legalized" by FEP-D executive order, it basically makes the entire population of the United States subject to draft on the basis of exigent need, subject to the appropriate authority. This "organized" draft into military units more or less ceases after the training divisions are mobilized and the training commands shut down around August 1998. After that central control in the United States basically collapses.

Do you foresee both MilGov and CivGov adopting this practice? It seems that press-ganging by one or the other of the factions could drive targeted individuals into the arms of the rival (unless, of course, they're both doing it).

After THAT, there people are still "drafted", but it's more warlord style and more akin to slavery/death camp slavery than "welcome to the Army, here's a gun."

That seems very dangerous to the drafting entity. Giving a slave a weapon also gives them the means to violently resist their enslavement. Slave-soldiers haven't really been a thing since the Ottoman empire's 19th century Janissaries- and they were customarily raised from early childhood to become soldiers. Contrary to enduring myth, during the American Civil War, even when the Confederacy was running desperately short of military manpower, slaves were not employed as armed soldiers (although many served in labor units).

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[castlebravo92]

Do you foresee both MilGov and CivGov adopting this practice? It seems that press-ganging by one or the other of the factions could drive targeted individuals into the arms of the rival (unless, of course, they're both doing it).

Per the timeline, all of the training divisions were activated on 20 July 1998 and CivGov re-constituted on 19 Apr 1999.

I posit that:
1) The well-organized draft infrastructure disappeared on Nov 27, 1997.
2) The Federal Government limped along for another 8 months until Presidential succession collapsed (in any event, the government was largely running on autopilot based on post-attack FED-P plans and responding to crisis to crisis). This is where press-ganging of the population appears: the service sector largely disappears in the US, most people are unemployed, the credit economy disappears, the cash economy is crippled, the government steps in to mobilize civilian work brigades to put out fires, clear rubble, and of course, replace combat losses for military units. There is still a pretend national government at this point, although a lot of areas are functionally left to "self-survive"
3) The Mexican invasion in the American Southwest, the Soviet invasion of the PNW via Alaska and Canada, and the deteriorating domestic situation resulted in all of the training divisions being mobilized as independent units and sent to various theaters. This essentially marks the end of any "national" organized recruitment.
4) Very much around the same time, the fall 1998 harvest essentially fails, the transportation network fails, the lights go out (again), and the exodus of the starving masses from urban centers begins in earnest. Thus ends any pretense of a functioning national government, and the military cantonment system pops up to defend areas with critical infrastructure or more or less self-sufficient in terms of food production. At this point the rule of law is absolutely dead beyond a local level. Many military units are basically just well organized gangs with more and bigger guns (see the history of the 43rd Military Police Brigade in The Last Submarine), taking what they need to survive and employing slaves that they intentionally work to death so they don't have to feed them through the winter.
5) When CivGov forms in April of 1999, the collapse has already happened. CivGov is at least, nominally, Constitutionally based, whereas MilGov is basically a Stalinist military junta running a full blown tyranny. I see CivGov operating more on consent, but they are a lot less powerful and organized as well, and in many cases, the distinction is moot (as in, who is worse, the UBF who massacred everyone on Cape Cod and is CivGov aligned, or the 43rd MP Brigade who go around terrorizing everyone and seizing everything that they can that is useful and probably killed just as many civilians if not more?)


That seems very dangerous to the drafting entity. Giving a slave a weapon also gives them the means to violently resist their enslavement. Slave-soldiers haven't really been a thing since the Ottoman empire's 19th century Janissaries- and they were customarily raised from early childhood to become soldiers. Contrary to enduring myth, during the American Civil War, even when the Confederacy was running desperately short of military manpower, slaves were not employed as armed soldiers (although many served in labor units).
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While I largely agree, I'll counterpoint: African child armies, where warlords have gone into areas, massacred all the adults, and then recruited the boys into their army, who then go on to be quite bloodthirsty. Slaves in fact (in most cases, it's join or die, murder or die) but these warlord gangs have tended to be resilient and fairly loyal in places like Liberia. The gangs / militias / units that are able to replenish losses have to have some sort of mechanism to ensure loyalty (maybe you have to be part of a cannon fodder unit first and acquire a good weapon from the battlefield before you find your way to a "real" unit in some of the groups).

[Raellus]

While I largely agree, I'll counterpoint: African child armies, where warlords have gone into areas, massacred all the adults, and then recruited the boys into their army, who then go on to be quite bloodthirsty. Slaves in fact (in most cases, it's join or die, murder or die) but these warlord gangs have tended to be resilient and fairly loyal in places like Liberia. The gangs / militias / units that are able to replenish losses have to have some sort of mechanism to ensure loyalty (maybe you have to be part of a cannon fodder unit first and acquire a good weapon from the battlefield before you find your way to a "real" unit in some of the groups).

Can't believe I forgot about child soldiers in 20th century Africa. :o

Do you foresee that sort of thing becoming a fairly common practice in the USA after 1998?

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[castlebravo92]

Can't believe I forgot about child soldiers in 20th century Africa. :o

Do you foresee that sort of thing becoming a fairly common practice in the USA after 1998?

-

Yes, unfortunately. I mean, it's already kind of a thing the US (and has been since the 70s) in gangs, where the adult gang members often have gang members who are minors execute a lot of the felony offenses where possible. There's a lot of Machiavellian reasons. Kids are more malleable, less likely to be self-sufficient, and once decamped from their neighborhood or town, less likely to make a run for it. There's probably also quite a few orphans who would make ready recruits even before having to strong arm towns / massacre the adult population to press gang the kids.